🧵time

Suject : My market analysis, thesis & trades for the next weeks

- $rune
- long short trading pairs
- retail onboarding
- state of institutional capital
- price targets
- ethbtc 1:

It's $rune time :
@THORChain lending is open and onboarding millions of capital per day in the ecosystem. It's just passed $500m in TVL and it's going much higher.

It's my biggest long lev trade

I believe it will overperform 99% of other projects over the next few weeks

Smol 🧵 :
My take on the market & opportunities

I called ethbtc bottom and rotated at 0.0505 after the ETF. I think this will play out well in the next months. After a few weeks of sideway, people that have been extremely risk on will think and realize the reality : this year will be mostly about $eth (ETF) and the l2s.

Take out the top 1000 crypto devs, probably 900 working in the $eth ecosystem.

Every DEFI protocol on other chains is an ETH protocol fork of copy.

The "where does the yield comes from" day is brought to you by @THORChain & @ErikVoorhees

16.74% on ETH?
24% on USDC / USDT ?

How is this possible ?

TDRL : Swap volume & fees have grown faster than liquidity

Thread 🔽🧵 @THORChain is a decentralized binance that offers native assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum on a DEX

Those are the two biggest trading pairs in crypto

Binance generates $10bs of fees in a bull market, so will @THORChain.

Difference : yield goes to the liquidity providers.

Bitcoin is now supported by @MetaMask

This is not a drill.

Small 🧵🔽 Today MetaMask launched Snaps. They are plugins that enable more functionality for users.

ShapeShift built the multi-chain functionality for :
- Bitcoin
- Litecoin
- Dogecoin
- Cosmos
- BCH
- Thorchain

More will be added

1.

What if I told you the project generating the 2nd highest amount of revenues in crypto (after $eth) is currently ranked #79 in market cap?

And that their usage has been steadily growing 10% to 30% a month?

Thread🧵🔽 2.

I’ve been analyzing and covering crypto casinos and sports-books for a year.

I’ve now taken a big bet on what I believe to be the best risk reward since I found about $gmx at $16.

1/12

We are in a crypto bull market now, people just dont know yet ⬇️ 2/12

Every ‘’scary’’ macro event will only be bullish

1/28

RIP governance tokens 🧵⬇️ 2/28

DEFI apps were always going to be the first widely used application on $eth.

I’m not arguing against what was built.

We made everything financial that made sense & inevitably lots of stuff that didnt.

1/15

Thread :

Why $canto is built different 🔽

I'l give a @cantoadznft among retweets. 2/15

There are $83B of stables circulating on eth. $72B of this is $USDC and $USDT. These are followed by the app issued stablecoins, $5b of $DAI, $1b of $Frax, and then a long tail of different designs.

1/8

Let the $canto flywheel commence

Small thread ⬇️ 2/8

At this point farming stables on $canto at 20% is by FAR the best risk adjusted stable return. TVL will likely double here by some time in february.

1/17

Time for a $lunc update following the 1.0.4 update.

I posted a step by step fix to access all delegation for all validators in 16/17
⬇️ 2/17

Problem :
Some validators are showing up intermittently on Terra Station. My validator is part of those.

Solution :
There is a work around : use the Rebels Station wallet.

This is new, use at your own risk. Info in 16/17

News came out that Metamask would collect IP using the default RPC.

The @THORChain team (@CBarraford) is working with @ShapeShift to decentralize RPCS, using a similar middle chain design as THORchain. @THORChain @CBarraford @ShapeShift @THORSwap already fixes interface tracking. It has no data collection. It charges no extra fees. It supports a lot of dexes. You don't need to go to uniswap anymore.

DEXes already supported :
✅THORChain
✅0x
✅1inch
✅Uniswap
✅SushiSwap
✅Pangolin
✅Trader Joe

1/6

$btc hashrate going parabolic here is very fishy.

There is no financing avaliable in the space and mining is unprofitable.

While it happened before, but the amount of money needed this time is orders of magnitude higher. 2/6

The EV of starting to mine here VS just buying and hodling $btc is negative.

The additional competition will put more leveraged $btc miners out of business.

SBF was supposed to custody deposits at a 1:1 ratio.

He didn't. He stole your money and used it for something else.

That's the only story.

There is no other story.

Call out journalists agressively. They keep lying with impunity.

They promoted this ponzie on the way up. Hard. He built a backdoor in his exchanges from day 1. Not just FTX, SRM etc

Then outstanding assets were stolen the night of the collapse.

If that doesn’t tell you criminal intent then what does?

It's been a while since I had an exciting morning in DEFI.

Thanks @avi_eisen This story is not done.
Someone is caught short. Avi is still long.

Funding rates are high.
1400% bybit
2.5% a day on binance

1/5

There’s many explosive situations in CeDefi but nobody is talking about what happens to on chain liquidation if there’s a blows up.

$eth could go sub $700 ⬇️ 2/5

On chain liquidations for $eth:
55 000 $eth at $955
130 000 $eth at $920
100 000 $eth between $833-866
285 000 $eth between $790-820
117 000 at $783
400 000 at $700

Today felt really shitty.

It's the first time I sell crypto on news, there's too many moving parts that can go wrong.

Just took one L after another on long term HODL.

Sold my end of the risk spectrum smallcap & NFTs. Sold better assets, hoping to buy them back at a lower price I don't see a lot of people talking about it, ppl are making jokes and hoping this will pass.

Things can get brutal.

There's no FED bailout.

Hopefully we wipe out every debt & risk out of the system and start fresh here. We need to see out everyone who's been swimming naked.

1/10

I noticed people on CT see the world only one chess move ahead.

Eg
- Sam gives to politicians = politicians don’t go after sam

- Sam gave a lot of money to journalists = journalists write puff pieces and don’t talk about the theft.

The reality is more complicated ⬇️ 2/10

Eg
Who ensured Epstein didn’t get charged for the $500m ponzie?

Why did Alexander Acosta, the state attorney, gave a preferential treatment to Epstein when he got his accusations for child prostitution? 18 months only.

Why could he leave jail 12h a day, 6 days a week?

1/4

How to become a paper billionaire in a day’s work : ⬇️🧵 2/4

Step 1:
Create a token with 1 000 000 001 supply

1/

Liquidators aren’t doing this on a Friday night. Someone with FTX funds is ruging what’s left of users deposits.

What a shitshow.

https://twitter.com/spreekaway/status/1591261933822676993

2/

https://twitter.com/0xfoobar/status/1591261359152705538

I’ve been writing about FTX being shady since may 2021.

I had a +- $10m long with low leverage in a token with low liquidity and 6.8m in NAV collateral.

IMO Alameda hunted my liquidation

Market dumped, drop was unnatural. The token I was on got shorted so much it bounced 100%

https://twitter.com/avi_eisen/status/1591255592693268481

If I didn’t wind down very quickly, I was 100% liquidated and they would have likely profited $2+m.

That moment woke me up to PVP games in crypto. It changed the trajectory of my life a bit.

I couldn’t sleep well for a few days.

This would not have happened on any other asset.

1/14
Here's how I see $rune right now :

People asked me why I changed my twitter handle. I realized my political posts pissed some people off and I didn't want to taint @THORChain.

It still means the same thing : THORchain.BULL. 2/14
I wish I discovered $rune at $1.

I invested millions of dollars at $5-6 on average.

After the $luna meltdown, it became clear that crypto was a downward trajectory and holding would likely be painful.