1/ Our report from last April predicted “for bitcoin to trade in a range of $22k to $42k, until a new multi-year bull market pushes it well north of $120k.” Now that bitcoin trades at $42k, let’s review our analysis & recommendations in a summary thread. 2/ We’ve been publishing our bitcoin reports since 2012, each time in periods of significant undervaluation. Last April, with the bitcoin price at $26k—60% below the 2021 all-time high—we once again felt the time was ripe.

People find bitcoin when they're ready: "... and then I realized that bitcoin, unlike ethereum, has this finite supply that is slowly coming to an end over time. ... I did purchase a little position." HT @MikeStillBTC @MikeStillBTC Speaker is @kevinrose, his friend/interviewer @tferriss is sitting on the left. Kevin is the founder of reddit precursor Digg and is known to have been massively bullish on ETH and NFTs for years. Imo this is how the switch to bitcoin begins—one influencer at a time.

1/ A pro-bitcoin candidate is leading the polls in Argentina (proof below). Our recent bitcoin report speculated on exactly this: 2/ Exhibit A. (switch on subtitles, they are in English)

1/ Midjourney has introduced "/describe", which will allow for much more interplay between AI text and AI image tools. Basically you upload a picture to MJ and it'll respond with 4 prompts, each describing the picture and allowing you to recreate similar images. 2/ I was excited to try it with my own work. So the first image is a drawing of mine, the others are variations created by running the /describe prompts. I'm pretty impressed.

I love the lively fractional reserve banking versus full reserve banking debates. For so long these were relegated to obscure conferences and internet forums. Here is @BobMurphyEcon with a short take on fractional reserve free banking as defended by Selgin & co. @BobMurphyEcon My personal position is that Fractional Reserve Free Banking is the lawless, libertinist take. "Let's allow fraud because it makes the economic machine run faster." And that full reserve banking is not utopian; it existed on many occasions, often in the most prosperous nations.

What a zinger, by the great @GeorgeSelgin no less! My head is spinning 😁 His knowledge of bank history far exceeds mine, but I'll nonetheless clarify my position here below. @GeorgeSelgin 1/ Imo fractional banking could be lawful only if its operation is transparent and disclosed to customers. It'd be in essence a gambling contract (which would reduce demand).
Here's a rebuttal to your 2000 piece “Should We Let Banks Create Money?” that I wrote in 2011:

I’m short ETH/BTC—entered positions around 0.07 BTC. Thesis:
- “sell the news” of The Merge
- legal hurricane for all crypto DINOs
- greed has turned to fear
- ETH/BTC trading sideways for 2yrs
- Digital gold > Web3 narrative
- VC bubble is deflating
- Lightning Network going mainstream

1/ Midjourney v5 is Live!
Here is Hayek dreaming of a better world: /2 It’s so fun to re-run old prompts. I’ll use this thread to share some.

The EU not as politically integrated as the US. Now that banks are getting hammered, expect tremendous conflict over who should pay for a bailout. PIIGS Crisis redux. Bank holidays / corralito much more likely in the old continent. My point illustrated with a chart. I see echo's of 2008 happening today.

First impression of Chat GPT-4:
- Looks like a fantastic tool for writers, a virtual editor who reviews your drafts, provides commentary, and who provides complete rewrites
- The poetry & prose it produces is on a whole other level compared to GPT-3. Huge jump, I’m impressed. Here’s how I turned it into a virtual editor:

What if... we see a run on dollar deposits, and short term T-Bills are in effect the new currency? 🤯

Here's how the French hyperinflation started: "In 1789, 400 million assignats were issued, certificates of indebtedness of 1,000 livres each, with an interest rate of 5%." Relevant thread:

https://twitter.com/PauloMacro/status/1635107639188422656

1/ MidJourney V5 is coming out soon. I helped rate some of the output as they're calibrating it. Another step change, impressive. Look at the hands! 2/ It takes abstract art and logo design to another level, too.

The Lion Tamer 2/ Today Gensler and the SEC charged more crypto companies for securities violations. This fits my expectation of a regulatory crackdown on crypto. It's no coincidence I parodied a 1907 Teddy Roosevelt cartoon:

https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/1538963088501776387

A thread of Bitcoin Top Signals

1/ 2014 Top Signal
Posted 2 days after the Bitcoin ATH of $1,163 2/ 2017-'18 Top Signal
NYT on Jan 2018, one month after the ATH of $19,500

Happy birthday bitcoin!

1/ For the occasion, here is some concept art for hardware wallets I created with Midjourney.

Let's start with one in Moroccan style: 2/ Hardware wallet in style of the Maya:

No matter how advanced AI and robotics become, human wants will always exist. That means there will always be a need for labor and a market for it. Imo "Universal Basic Income" distorts economic calculation and can lead to Soviet-like impoverishment.

https://twitter.com/TuurDemeester/status/706889051425517568

1/ The year is 2050. As the sun rises over the snowy mountaintops, a lone figure stirs inside an old airplane wreck. She lights a fire, and begins a day of reflection and longing, until she musters the courage to reach out to a mysterious stranger. A love story begins to unfold. 2/ Her

So far I'm not convinced that Binance is operating with 100% reserves. Related thread:

https://twitter.com/jespow/status/1596227031637045248

"Bitcoin mining on the Nile River, Northern Sudan"
Concept art in the style of Mœbius What do you think @SudanHODL

Etherean wakes up to the value of running his own full node, only to realize that’s no longer an option.

To wit: First centralized stakers began censoring transactions. Now MetaMask, the main ETH access provider, is recording IP and wallet addresses. web.archive.org/web/2022112109…

Vitalik has a habit of projecting his own slipperiness and opportunism into other people. It gradually exposes his personality to the world. I could be wrong but I agree with Cobie on this one.