In 2020, I argued investors were misreading Nintendo, while also projecting hopes that conflicted with what made it so great.

Holds up (stock ⬇16% since) even as its film/park licenses are set for huge debut

Nintendo, Disney, and Cultural Determinism
matthewball.vc/all/onnintendo Got a lot of "but this time it's different" (Switch Pro, Switch 2 not deprecating base, Mario Kart Mobile, and so on).

But it's the same company (see rapid end of Animal Crossing, Mario Party updates, Mario Kart Mobile), which is great! Nintendo is extraordinary.

When Peacock was unveiled in January 2020 (it launched April 2020), NBCUniversal said it would be EBITDA breakeven in calendar 2024

As we enter 2023, the last year before that supposed-breakeven, Peacock is losing $615MM+ a quarter on $500MM in revenue, or -$2.5B on $2B a year twitter.com/i/web/status/1… NBCUniversal also said cumulative EBITDA losses would not exceed $2B, with no year greater than negative $1B.

After three years, cumulative EBITDA losses are nearly $5B, growing from a $668MM annual loss in 2020 to another $1.7B in 2021, then $2.4B in 2022

Headline: "Meta’s VR Headset Harvests Personal Data Right Off Your Face"

Actual: A "Default off" feature used for eye tracking/facial reproduction to avatar, with scans processed *locally* then deleted, relayed to 3 Parties only if user chooses to use Meta avatar on 3P software Fact these are really important, nuanced issues is why we cannot flatten them as above.

This is no different than Animoji, in creation or data rights, e.g. If you want this feature, you're scanning your face (sorry, "harvesting it"). If you take avatar elsewhere, data goes too

Some highlights from @stratechery's great Metaverse interview with both Satya Nadella and Mark Zuckerberg

#1 - Nadella: Don't think of the Metaverse as excluding or substituting other devices, access models, or 2D interfaces

stratechery.com/2022/an-interv… #2 - Zuckerberg: There are "two logical zones" to target to "build out the MR" platform: $300-500 devices and $1500-2000 powerful enterprise workstations. They will eventually standardize

Mark on (virtual) stage with Satya Nadella at Meta Connect

Lots of ongoing efforts to have an interoperable metaverse industry-wide

https://twitter.com/ballmatthew/status/1579887481096654849

https://twitter.com/ballmatthew/status/1575143280303644673

CEO Tim Cook says Apple avoids the word 'metaverse' because the average person doesn't know what it means

(Note this is counter to the commonly-repeated claim Apple doesn't believe in the Metaverse, which obvious is not and hasn't been true for years)
businessinsider.com/tim-cook-apple… AOL never argued the 'net by explaining TCP/IP or internetworking standards, but instead use cases + catchphrases ("You've Got Mail")

Similarly, every company described the Internet opportunity differently because internetworking standards weren't relevant - business opps were

🧵AVATAR's cultural legacy may be mocked, but it was FAR more successful than most recall, and it tells us a lot about the globality of film

While Endgame nominally beat Avatar's global box office, it didn't really - not even close (and 3D isn't why)

via matthewball.vc/all/china-marv… In 2019, Endgame pulled in $2.8B globally, beating Avatar's 2009 haul of $2.74B.

A small margin despite MANY advantages:
• 21 leadup films over 11 years (lotta hype!)
• Marketing budget that exceeded Avatar's production budget
• Biggest franchise in world v new tale
[Con't]

CEO of AutoDesk on new integration into Epic/Unreal, which he says will "always" be better at real-time 3D. Says will integrate into Meta's avatars platform if better, too

New approach to platform collaboration emerging in support of open metaverse

www-zdnet-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.zdnet.… I totally understand why people are skeptical about interoperation between big platforms - Zuck once publicly recommended my work while also saying it was too idealistic here - but a lot is happening already, a ton that isn't yet public, and most of the benefit is not zero-sum

Lol. @Gartner_Inc pubbed their "1 Star" review of my book, instead recos its incoherent framework for *a* Metaverse, with elements "workplace", "social media", "infrastructure", "gaming", "commerce".

Somehow ests 2B spend 1h/day in Metaverse in 4 years

blogs.gartner.com/mark-mcdonald/… The funnier part is that they recommend three other sources, two of which list me *on the referenced page* as their Metaverse expert, which I guess shows how little research was done in writing this report

So excited to say THE METAVERSE is now a NATIONAL BESTSELLER! Ranking fourth across the United States in non-fiction for its debut week!

Joins bestselling status in Canada (8th) to become an international bestseller!!!

THANK YOU EVERYONE for the support, shares, thoughts! WOW! I started writing the book in May of 2021, before most of the buzz took off, with my initial writings starting in 2018. I could not have imagined it coming here. Thank you to EVERYONE who helped, thought, indulged, inspired, listened to rants and exhaustion, edited, read, more.

Really not sure why we seriously consider 2016 v 2022 "live+same day" ratings that exclude "further delayed streaming", least of all in a subscription world + for serial sci fi

FWIW, CBS' biggest scripted show (Young Sheldon) also "down" 45% from 2017 to 2021 (two years fewer)

https://twitter.com/sagehyden/status/1551343042132692992

Put another way: what percentage of the total Westworld audience watches the show from 9PM Sunday night to 3AM Monday morning?

And isn't the reason we love on demand streaming... because we don't have to?

(And do we really think live v on demand split is flat in six years?)

FWIW

We generally recognize 1983 as birth of the Internet. In 1996 (13 years later), the Fed says 9% of Americans used the net (not 59%, which took until 2003). And ofc, TCP/IP began in 60s/70s

And comping the first of something to the first mass version of something.. is weird

https://twitter.com/sandofsky/status/1532047650148605952

In other words
- No, 59% of Americans didn't use the Internet 13 years after invented
- Most aggressive definition would say 9% did
- One could argue less than 1% did
- First smartphone dated ~1992, 15 years before the iPhone even released, so why start smartphone adoption there?

In 55 days, my first book - THE METAVERSE - hits physical and virtual bookshelves via Liveright | W.W. Norton

I would so value the preorder support! Early trending impacts bookstore stocking, print run, marketing, etc!

AMZN: amazon.com/Metaverse-How-…
(Other retailers in thread) 2/ It's 3x longer than my Primer (all redone), 5x as comprehensive, hopefully 10x better (30x the writing time, 9 more months of learning, plus pro editing and proofing)

@AppleBooks just named it one of the Most Anticipated Books of Summer 2022 (Order: books.apple.com/us/book/the-me…)