2024 predictions: 1. Bitcoin hits a new all-time high.

Time to review my 2023 predictions. As usual, it'll be most interesting to see what I was wildly wrong about, and why.

(and if I'll beat my score from last year which was 21.5/30)

https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1609798030814748672

Right.

https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1609798033482436609

Why did BRC-20 take over not only Bitcoin, but also *Ethereum, Solana, Near, Polygon, Celo and Fantom*?

Because burning gas/wasting blockspace is one if the last distribution mechanisms that exists with _open access to retail_.

Read on 🧵👇





How are you supposed to get access to a low cap cryptocurrency these days? Say, a sub-$1m mcap coin?

Retail-facing ICOs are simply illegal at the moment. Only accredited investors can buy. You’ll get access to these coins at exchange listing, at $100m+ FDV market caps.

ok non-trolly pulsechain take:
- it’s stupid as hell but it’s not a rug
- it’s unapologetically one of the most enthusiastic defi communities
- 200 projects build on it without any grants
- end of day it’s an EVM chain like any other but with a strong community of supporters - yes it raised a gross amount of money and delivered a product that is technically equivalent of what you can buy on fiverr for $50-100k
- yes it’s a pos chain with 90%+ of the stake controlled by 1 guy so the whole thing basically has an admin key

Time is a flat circle / everything old shall be new again

Pt. 1 Time is a flat circle / everything old shall be new again

Pt. 2

PulseChain raised $1 billion dollars to ”reduce Ethereum fees” by copying Ethereum without the Layer 2s. Launch day:

TL;DR:
- an unknown bug causes ethereum to stop finalizing blocks
- ”finalization” is like a big confirm, takes 13 min. small confirms work fine in the meantime
- some people say ”ethereum froze”
- some people get mad because small confirms were still working - some people say ”omg all validators were closed to get slashed 😱😱😱”
- these people are wrong because ethereum’s consensus algo doesn’t just insta-slash everyone when there is a finalization issue
- what happens is that the non-attesting validators start to lose tiny amounts

3 years have passed. Result:

Lightning: $45 million/month
Liquid: ~0
Ethereum: $18 billion/month

https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1259887003027607554

How I came to this conclusion:

Lightning (heuristic): From the Arcane State of Lightning Vol 2 report, the response between channel capacity increase and payment volume +% could be interpreted as quadratic. Vol was $20m, the capacity is up 50% since. $20m*(1.5)^2 = $45m.

Ok real talk

90% of Lightning laser-eye maxis on Nostr use centralized, custodial solutions

90% of Magicians trading ordinal inscriptions use non-custodial trustless PSBT atomic swaps IOU Bitcoin = fiat

The laser-eye maxis are the shitcoiners.

you may not believe it but the reason you have to pay $10 to transact on the bitcoin blockchain now is because @rot13maxi inscribed this 360kb picture of donald trump for $20 on january 28th have you ever asked yourself what exactly happened on january 29th that caused the ordinals trend to go parabolic?

I'm a cyber hornet, serving the goddess of satire, feasting on the nectar of wit, exponentially growing ever snarkier, quicker, and more cunning behind a veil of polished mockery. I'm a cyber hornet, serving the goddess of banter, savoring the ambrosia of sass, exponentially growing ever more caustic, swift, and shrewd behind a facade of cultivated irony.

don’t mind me just posting a video where @PrestonPysh interviews @saylor talking about how ASICs getting better means they consume less energy

imagine trying to clown ”fake experts” while delivering a sub-2 IQ yourself, holy shit (rt’d by Preston *today*)
like i can understand if you erronously thought this was a good clip when you recorded it last year and then someone told you it was the most retarded take on mining they ever heard and you learned from it

but wtf are you doing retweeting this garbage now??

One of the boring things with growing up is that at some point you have to stop caring about what the most "decentralized" solution is and instead ask "what's the most decentralized solution I can get into the hands of a significant amount of people?" When I was younger, I asked only the first question, and therefore I was convinced that the future of crypto payments are the Lightning Network.

Inbound capacity, payments UX, things like that would sort itself out. Finding solutions is what engineers do.

You’re a wizard, Greg Fuck you Hagrid arbitrary data was always possible on the blockchain

In the depths of the bear market, it is unavoidable that you will eventually ask yourself:

”Wait. What the fuck does this industry even produce? Did we just move some imaginary numbers around? Yes, yes decentralized currency, DAOs blabla, but what real is there to touch?” That’s understandable. It is good that you ask yourself this. Sometimes we forget to ask it, so make sure you answer it now.

Do you recognize this video? This is @ShannenJPEG.

She went viral making a video about how she used to be an angry blue haired feminist (her words) and now has done a complete 180 and decided to become an ultra tradewife. She’s now into crypto. Shannen has discovered that jumping between polar opposite ideological communities and debunking the former as a sham is a brilliant engagement farming strategy, because the new crowd she caters her message to is so prone to liking and sharing her message.

how it started how it’s going (reflink shilling) after blocking about 100k of twitter accounts on CT that point out his BS, he can now freely shill reflinks to the remaining 1.8m noobs who follow him

🤝

Hello everyone!

It’s Sunday again. Welcome back to Bitcoin Sunday School Part 2!

Today we’re going to go one level deeper into Rainbow Math with the illustrious economist Dr. Saifedean Ammous and actually make some real-world predictions! Hope you brought your notebook! 🧵 This thread follows from last week’s class, so if you haven’t read that one, please go and finish your homework!

https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1541021866541850626

Good morning everyone!

Are you gloomy about the fact that bitcoin is still lingering around $20-22k? Don’t worry! Today we’re going to do some Rainbow Math with economist and best-selling author Dr. Saifedean Ammous!

Welcome to Bitcoin Sunday School! 🧵Part 1 Saifedean Ammous is one of the most well-known and respected people in bitcoin. He’s the author of ”The Bitcoin Standard”, has held lecturer and professor roles in economics at the Lebanese American University for over 10 years and sells four different online economics courses!

New identity just dropped

ty @shukudaidayo for concept & @6maker_nft for art not who be confused with this cubist trash (evil twin)

All the rainbows held except HEX it just kinda went straight to shit Fun fact: the HEX rainbow cracked on the *exact* day Richard Heart decided to debate the Rainbow man on livestream

I don't make the rules