Government sets out new points based system for immigration -

Contains some big changes, on a bonkers timeline with a sign of some of the immigration battles to come...

Quick(ish) thoughts... On skilled workers -

Salary and skills thresholds not a surprise, they take MAC recommendations from past year.

It’s points based but it’s NOT an Australian style one (but I think we all have better hills to die on that this)

Trying to work out all the potential Brexit scenarios as a result of this general election...

Tell me if I've missed any:

(some are niche) Scenario 1: No Brexit

Labour govt (either majority or relying on other parties) gets referendum between Johnson's deal/tweaked withdrawal agreement & remain.

Requires immediate A50 extension to middle of next year. Remains wins referendum, A50 revoked (nightmare for EU budget?)

So ahead of Super Saturday, here are all the @instituteforgov bits you might need to know.

First our explainers on deal they are voting on, compared with Theresa May's:

https://twitter.com/jl_owen/status/1184857656160374784

Then the explainer on the vote tomorrow and the possible amendments:

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/par…

And my random speculation:

instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/parliamen…

A huge number of biggest Brexit issues come from it being seen too often as a political process rather than also a massive policy/practical one

https://twitter.com/aljwhite/status/1180073324573052928

Triggering Article 50 based on election timelines and polling, rather than preparation of positions and consequences of not getting a deal at the end

(True for both main parties)

Is it possible for the EU to agree to this version of the backstop without reopening the financial settlement?

Im not sure it is...

Purpose of the backstop is something that needs to be in place - legally and operationally - by end of transition. At the moment that’s Dec 2020 Creating two new borders - regulatory GB-NI and customs NI-ROI - takes time.

The customs border, clearance hubs, trusted trader schemes, business readiness etc - you can’t do them in 14 months.

Last night @michaelgove did a last pre-prorogation evidence session on no deal preparations for the @LordsEUCom

Asked about the biggest no deal risks, he confirmed that there were EIGHT areas of most concern.... The eight areas cover - well - absolutely everything:

- Flow at border
- business readiness
- animals
- people
- security
- northern ireland
- economy
- data

As @Gilesyb pointed out the list doesn't cover the rest of the universe, but Galileo might make them reconsider

(As temporary distraction from standing orders and business motions)

Still surprising that the thing that is driving no deal (irish border) is the area where government seems furthest from having a remotely credible no deal plan (irish border) The government's current no deal plan for Irish Border is basically this:

On a temporary basis it will do nothing - no checks, controls or customs.

But it has two massive problems:

1. It's temporary
2. It only fixes half of the issue - one side of border

No deal is not an end point and will preoccupy government for years.

Our new @instituteforgov paper looks at what needs to happen before October 31 and what will follow if the UK leaves without a deal. The biggest questions will still need to be settled. The difficult choices - unresolved for the last three years - will not evaporate overnight on the 31 October.

And Brexit will remain the key dividing line in a Parliament in which Govt has a wafer-thin majority.

Worth making the point today that relatively arbitrary dates have not been the UK's friend in the Brexit process.

To start, A50 trigger in Mar 17 was created for Tory conference speech in Oct 16 - meant UK started clock without plan Then the desire to get 'sufficient progress' in December 2017 meant there was a last minute scramble to agree words on Irish Border.

Supposedly Davis, Johnson and co didn't full understand what they had agreed (🤔)

But they've been critical driver of what followed

Today we @instituteforgov publish our latest report..

We argue that the Home Office is not ready or able to manage immigration policy after Brexit.

The report looks at the brexit challenge and the problems that have plagued the immigration system. The report looks at why the immigration system is seemingly lurching from crisis.

A few examples:

Ministers don’t know what they are trying to achieve. They can agree high level political rhetoric. But have failed to outline realistic objectives - for almost a decade

You may have seen it, but the PAC hearing on border readiness is… so bleak.

It's clear a huge amount of work has happened over last 2 years. But also that we are woefully prepared for no deal...

A large part of that is massive failings of politicians to make decisions... 1/ In short:

- 40% of traders have no plans to prepare for no deal
- The EU fully intends to implement checks, but we don’t quite know how
- HMRC have basically just got crossed fingers on tariff policy
- Government is relying on businesses to tell them what MS are doing

Well doesn't this just look like a total nightmare waiting to happen... It's impossible for the Home Office to meaningfully end free movement in a no deal scenario.

a) They need to have registered EU citizens already in UK before they can enforce new regime

b) they don't have a new system up and running.

So here we have the Whitehall workaround...

The Brexit Secretary is in front of @LordsEUCom today...

Am sure they've got lots of very good questions lined up already (@AlexanderHorne1), but if they wanted a few more.... First on the deal -

If govt is saying they don't want to extend A50. What is the timeline now to Mar 2019, incl talks in Bxl, a meaningful vote (w/ sufficient debate) & then Withdrawal Agreement Bill?

Last year, Govt told EU they needed deal by December to meet March deadline

Waiving the £65 fee for citizens shouldn't be seen as a 'goodwill gesture' by the Government, having listened to members.

This is more about Home Office looking to avoid another huge scandal - well beyond Windrush - after 2020. As excellent @britishfuture report from @jillyrutter says - if just 5% of eligible EU citizens fail to apply for settlement scheme, then 175,000 will be undocumented but entitled to be in UK.

A £65 fee is just one more barrier that will stop people applying..

Quick thoughts on immigration white paper. Whatever you think of policy - it’s probably one of/the best Brexit white paper in terms of detail/supporting analysis, it swerves a couple of very very tricky or very very political issues The white paper dodges the question of net migration target (as Sajid Javid tried to on the radio) by not mentioning it but cross referring to the Conservative Party manifesto… which does have 100,000 target.

As the Cabinet finally makes some decisions on no deal planning beyond "technical notices" - worth pointing out how little this meeting has actually changed...

(Spoiler - not very much...) Firstly - the money

This £2bn will make a grand total of zero difference to the UK's readiness for no deal.

Why? Because it's for the year 2019/20. So not a penny will be available to departments until the UK has left the EU.

If you want to understand how ready - or not - the UK is for 'no deal', you should read this NAO report.

nao.org.uk/wp-content/upl…

It shows just how much work is happening inside Whitehall - v impressive against any normal standards - but... It also shows very clearly how nightmarish the politics, risk, complexity and timelines are. You can't deliver major projects with that toxic combination of problems

Defra is responsible for:
- 1 in 6 Brexit workstreams
- 1 in 8 statutory instruments
- 1 in 3 Brexit Bills

Dover District Council is the Port Health Authority responsible for Channel Tunnel and Port of Dover.

Any regulatory checks needed after Brexit will be conducted by them...

Report is concerning for few reasons...

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1024228484191805441

Not only do they not seem to know what the plan is, they question whether Whitehall understands the constraints they face:

there have been no inspections since Single Market was created (c. 25yrs ago) and they don't even know what passes through the port as there's no data

New NAO report on DfT shows just how much of a challenge 'no deal' preparations are...

They looked at four workstreams that require new systems or infrastructure.

As of last month... *plans* were still being finalised... Their system for managing queues at Dover:

"very little room for delay, and it carries significant risks"

A contract was awarded in May. Operational plans are still being drawn up...

It seems there are few things that the Government could do with the so-called ‘third option’:
-Bolt on regulation
-Kick the can down the road
-Late entry/new model First option involves the UK just bolting on rumoured full alignment on goods (to either model).

Addresses the critical regulatory issues that make up a far greater % of border checks. But wouldn’t necessarily tackle the issues (in EU & Cabinet) with existing proposal..

David Davis and Boris Johnson showed this week how divided the Cabinet is on key Brexit issues.

Our latest @instituteforgov paper shows what those politic divisions mean for Brexit preparations 1/ Negotiators are hamstrung. The focus on getting agreement in corridors of Whitehall and around the cabinet table means the UK has lost critical opportunities for influencing in Brussels and European capitals.

The UK is arguing with itself when it should be making its case to EU