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Barry Ritholtz Profile picture
Barry Ritholtz
@Ritholtz
Welcome to the Dopamine factory! Chair/CIO of RWM https://t.co/St006fc1z6 Masters-in-Business podcast/radio host Director of Twitter Cognitive Dissonance
16 subscribers
Aug 27 • 11 tweets • 3 min read
A few quick thoughts about yesterday's discussion on how we got here...

FOMC seems 2b always behind the curve, historically, going back to the 1990s under Greenspan.

They are a big + boring conservative institution & are fearful of error. They tend to be less aggressive when making decisions, with significant ramifications.

May 19, 2023 • 12 tweets • 5 min read
FinTV comments I keep hearing:

1. Only 5 stocks driving markets
2. Recession is inevitable
3. Breadth is terrible
4. AI is a bubble
5. Debt ceiling = disaster
6. Problematic new lows
7. Consumers running out of money
8. Earnings will fail THIS Q
9. HH Debt!
10. Rally faltering Let's see if I can find something to undercut each of those 10 items:
Mar 11, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
.@baldassarreted Congrats on picking up Certina as a brand -- they are wildly underappreciated.

My PH200M is a favorite daily wear -- it has a great retro flavor to it, and a wonderful mesh bracelet Image One of the very best dive watches you can find for under $1,000. It just feels great on . . .

I always smile when a random stranger asks about it, in a way they wouldn't with a Rolex, Omega, or Tag Heuer.
Mar 10, 2023 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
The Fed is Breaking Things (and it could get worse) dlvr.it/SkhPB7 Image I interviewed Greg Becker, who was CEO of Silicon Valley Bank, in 2021...

ritholtz.com/2021/08/mib-gr…
Jan 11, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
What drives market returns? These rolling 10-year total returns going back to 1909 (via Crestmont Research) show an average ~10% annual total return over any 10-year long period. Ed Easterling (of Crestmont) breaks down those returns into these components: EPS, Dividend Yield, and P/E Increase (or decrease).

Note how cyclical P/E expansion/contraction is...
Jan 3, 2023 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
Observations to Start 2023 dlvr.it/SgJkSr It takes the Earth 365 days, 6 hours, 9 minutes + 9.76 seconds to complete 1 orbit – to return to the exact same place relative to the sun. Our planet has done this about 4.54 billion times.

What does this unit of time have to do with investing?

Alas, utterly nothing...
Dec 2, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Have you ever been professionally humiliated?

I have had my ass handed to me in public - sometimes deservedly, more often not - but I have never been intellectually demolished like this:

int.nyt.com/data/documentt… The appeals court was sharply critical of the decision by Judge Cannon, a Trump appointee to intervene in the case. She lacked legitimate jurisdiction to order the review & there was no justification for treating a former POTUS differently from any other search warrant target.
Nov 25, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
We are witnessing someone - in real-time time - take $44 billion dollars and light it on fire. It's a rare example of the willful destruction of personal wealth on a massive scale.

Can you think of other examples of this? Who else has destroyed so much capital so quickly? Bill Hwang of Archegos Capital Management immolated $20 billion in personal wealth.

Softbank? Barings Capital? Those were all OPM...
Nov 21, 2022 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
Turtle Trading was an attempt by Richard Dennis + William Eckhardt "to grow traders the way they farmed turtles in Singapore."

They were first brought to public attention in
@jackschwager's book Market Wizards.

@tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 Lots of books about turtle trading and trend trading followed...

amazon.com/s?k=Turtle+tra…
Nov 18, 2022 • 4 tweets • 2 min read
When Narratives Collapse dlvr.it/SczyHk "Every now and again, we reach a moment in time when the scales fall from our eyes, and reality is revealed to us. We are now at one of those moments when the stories we tell ourselves have fallen apart.

The dominant narratives are failing."
Nov 9, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
Unconventional Wisdom dlvr.it/ScVNd5 Lots of folks got this election very wrong -- @JamesSurowiecki has pulled together a comprehensive list.

Nov 3, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Fascinating deep-dive into the mythos of how 1970s-era inflation ended.

TL:DR is the 1970s was a very different pre-globalization era, with powerful labor unions broken by offshoring supply chains + manufacturing.

2020s inflation is wildly dissimilar to 1970s... Image
Oct 27, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read
A few thoughts on the upside surprise for 2022 Q3 GDP -- 2.6% versus 2.4% estimates - as told through 10 charts: Chart of official GDP data via BEA.

Note the scale is still wildly skewed by the outsized 2020 Q2 collapse + subsequent huge fiscal stimulus driven snapback in Q3.

Those 2 Qs are still impacting everything from the recovery to inflation to FOMC policy.
bea.gov/news/2022/gros…
Oct 26, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
Can Anyone Catch Nokia? by @ritholtz ritholtz.com/2022/10/can-an… “Nokia, one billion customers – can anyone catch the cell phone king?”

That was quite an amazing magazine cover, posted online October 26, 2007 — 15 years ago today.
Oct 17, 2022 • 10 tweets • 3 min read
Why hasn't gold been able to find a bid since inflation spiked over the past 18 months?

What is the role of Gold in a modern portfolio?

A few thoughts... If any year should have seen Gold mount a robust rally, it is 2022. But GLD is down 10.5% year-to-date.
Oct 12, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
Is Loss Aversion about making good decisions or avoiding bad ones?

In Charlie Ellis’ "Winning the Losers Game" we learn in tennis, amateurs should avoid unforced errors, play within their skills, return the ball + not go for the Ace or smash shot.

Just like investing... Investing errors are more damaging (subtractive) than good decisions are productive (additive).

Have we evolved to do less? Is this why groups wait for leadership to arise? What is an individual's bias towards action -- for or against?

I have more questions than answers.
Sep 27, 2022 • 7 tweets • 3 min read
Funny that neither Florida’s Governor nor either of its 2 Senators believe climate change is real
Sep 23, 2022 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
Ever since Alan Greenspan was Fed Chair, the world has become accustomed to ultra-low rates, (nearly) free capital, and excess liquidity.

Returning to a more normal monetary regime is a difficult and painful transition. Since the mid- to late-1990s, this monetary largesse made anything purchased with credit cheaper: Houses, cars, vendor-financed equipment, etc.

This obviously helped an already robust economy grow even faster...
Sep 22, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Changes in Global Wealth 2021 dlvr.it/SYpY2h Image Every year, Credit Suisse puts out an in-depth look at wealth around the world; the data always has some interesting findings -- some highlights:

Most ultra-high-net-worth individuals
United States with over 140,000
China 32,710
Sep 21, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Inflation Expectations: A Dubious Survey dlvr.it/SYkcVG Image "The problem is that all surveys (including inflation expectations) are deeply problematic.

At the very least, they are backward-looking, operating on a lag.

Inflation Expectations peaked in June after inflation itself reached new highs + began to roll over...
Sep 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Chart Crime?

Are those PE returns from a self reported set? Smells like survivorship bias... At least hedge funds beat bonds...