Yesterday, @TheAtlantic published my piece on October 7 rape denialism ... and there are a few points I want to highlight.

The first is that, contrary to the skeptics and denialists -- widespread sexual violence took place on October 7.
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/… The Association of Rape Crisis Centers in Israel found "Hamas’s attack included brutal sexual assaults carried out systematically & deliberately against Israeli civilians and "sadistic practices aimed at intensifying the degree of humiliation and terror." gov.il/BlobFolder/new…

Ok, time for some game theory ... for @ezraklein @NateSilver538 @DamonLinker and others who continue to argue that Biden should drop out of the 2024 race. What happens next? 🧵 If Biden withdraws the overwhelming likelihood is that he endorses Kamala Harris for president. Why? It would show loyalty to his running mate, ensure Biden's legacy, and, even more important, would block a divisive nomination fight.

In this exchange, @RepThomasMassie says, "there's never been a school shooting in a school that allows teachers to carry."

I guess it depends on how one defines a teacher, but in the Parkland shooting, there was an armed officer present. He hid as 17 people were killed
THREAD

https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1641432681123594240

As far as shootings at schools where teachers carry weapons ... we don't know. That information isn't readily available. But very few teachers carry guns in schools. The last estimate in 2018 put the number at 2.6% of schools. nytimes.com/2022/07/31/us/…

It's poorly written and has Trump's usual weird capitalization issues, but it is also a pretty compelling argument against a DeSantis presidential bid The one thing I'll say in DeSantis's defense, he went to great lengths to kill as many Floridians as possible from COVID by opening up the state too soon ... seems unfair for Trump to attack him over it

Ron DeSantis went to Iowa and never talked about the economy, jobs, or inflation. Instead, he railed against Disney, CRT, Fauci, DEI, COVID vaccines, and illegal immigration. It's emblematic of a political party out of touch with the American people.
thedailybeast.com/ron-desantis-i… He said that Florida would look to pass laws to protect people against "woke banks" and said he would ban Zuckerbucks, which is an issue so far down the conservative fever swamp I had to look it up.

I hate to be that guy ... but the more I read @peterbakernyt's piece on Ben Barnes, John Connally and the secret mission to interfere in the 1980 election, the more it doesn't quite add up. In particular, these paragraphs (THREAD) There are two things that jump out ... first, why is there not more info about this three-hour meeting with Casey? It's the crucial link between Connally and the Reagan camp, and yet there's so clear smoking gun quote from Casey -- or not much info on what they discussed

So this is a useful thread and Frum points out correctly that there’s no evidence in this article that Connally’s trip influenced the Iranians.

But as I wrote about on the Nixon campaign’s efforts to lobby S. Vietnam to reject a potential peace deal in ‘68 … it doesn’t matter

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1637206506700406790

As in the Reagan/Iran situation, there's no direct evidence that Nixon was involved in the efforts to lobby the South Vietnam leadership (there's lots of evidence that his campaign manager John Mitchell was involved).

This is kind of a strange argument in that even now -- after the pandemic has largely ended -- about half the country supports vaccine requirements for businesses, federal workers, and schools

https://twitter.com/dwallacewells/status/1636822650931625984

Even more striking is that these numbers are happening even though less than 20& of Americans consider COVID a severe health risk.

One more point on President's Day: FDR, Lincoln, and Washington were the three best presidents. But I actually don't think it's all that close. FDR clearly the GOAT -- won World War 2, got America out of the Great Depression, created the post-war international system ... ... created the modern welfare state, changed the role of government in the lives of the American people, and was also an incredibly effective and successful politician. We're still living in FDR's America.

For President's Day: the reality of the American presidency is that most American presidents were either mediocre or bad. 🧵msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-… After the first 5 or 6, until the 20th century) there's one great American president (Lincoln), a couple of not bad (Polk, maybe Grant), and a whole lot of meh.

So the NYT letter writers on trans bias have Issued an update ... and it makes an interesting claim: that there is a "well-documented complaint of editorial bias detailed in our letter." Let's take a look. nytletter.com The letter makes three claims re: @emilybazelon's long NYT piece on gender therapy: her use of the term "Patient Zero" vilified transness, she misidentified Grace-Lidinsky-Smith (whose name is misspelled) & multiple sources have expressed regret about talking to Bazelon.

For all the talk about the Sox screwing up on Xander Bogaerts ... it's worth asking what the hell the Padres are thinking? Of the last four World Series Champions all had a fairly similar strategy -- build from within. Not spending tons of $$ on FAs: 2022 Astros: Highest paid player, Justin Verlander, acquired in a trade. No high-price free agents. Best players, Altuve, Bregman, Alvaraz ... home grown.

2021 Braves: Highest paid player, Freeman -- $22m, home-grown. Highest paid FA: Charlie Morton, $15m.

This is a somewhat obvious point, BUT due to broad int'l sanctions on Russia (and the likely fact she was arrested to give Moscow a bargaining chip), the US had very little leverage in securing the freedom of Brittany Griner. Hard to imagine a "better deal" was possible ... ... when a country is willing to act in such an unethical and immoral manner (and arrest private citizens in order to secure some material advantage), the "good" actor doesn't have much choice but to give in to the hostage taker or allow the hostage to remain imprisoned

In light of the House passing the Respect for Marriage Act, re-upping my 2015 piece on perhaps the most courageous political moment I've ever seen -- Sen. Chuck Robb's Senate floor speech opposing the Defense of Marriage Act yahoo.com/news/the-speec… Robb's political courage on same-sex marriage likely helped cost him his Senate seat in what was then still-red Virginia. As for why he did it? Robb “had no personal connection to gay people" ... he did it because he believed anti-gay discrimination was wrong. Period

In my latest for MSNBC: on election day, Ron DeSantis won ... but DeSantis-ism lost msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-… Virtually every GOP candidate who DeSantis endorsed either lost -- the ones who won underperformed.

Just want to point out again that all but two of the Republicans who DeSantis stumped for in the midterms lost.

He spoke at campaign rallies for Masters, Lake, Mastriano, Zeldin, Schmidt, Michels, and Laxalt (during the GOP primary). They all lost.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1592614694736777217

The two who won were Vance (9.5 pts worse than DeWine) and Johnson (by 1 point). He also endorsed Don Bolduc, who lost.

Here’s your insane political stat of the day. In Michigan, Hillary Clinton lost white college grads by 8 pts in 2016.

In 2022 Whitmer won them by 21 points. That’s a 29 point shift in 6 years Now let's take a look at Georgia. In 2016, Clinton lost white college graduates 28/69. In 2022, Warnock lost them 40/58 ... a 21 point shift

One more thing on this because it gets to an argument that truly annoys me: if you say a political party should trim its policy agenda because it would help them do better in a midterm election ... you need to point to a single historical example where this strategy has worked.

https://twitter.com/speechboy71/status/1588167014257934336

The problem is that you can't. The incumbent party almost always loses multiple seats in the first midterm election after a new president is inaugurated. The only time it didn't happen in modern politics is 2002 and that was largely because of 9/11 ...

So if I’m understanding this correctly @jbarro thinks Democrats should cast aside the policy agenda that has helped them mobilize Democratic voters & win the last two elections … to win over narrow swath of GOP voters who are concerned about the party’s anti-democratic shift

https://twitter.com/douthatnyt/status/1587867145710575619

I get that Josh and Ross approach this issue as Republicans, but the suggestion that Democrats should ignore the policy preferences of the voters who overwhelmingly support them seems to ignore the importance of coalition politics in a 2-party system

Top Halloween Candy Ranked

5. Whoppers
4. 100 Grand Bar
3. Twizzlers
2. Reese’s Pieces
1. Snickers

1 & 2 could go either way but Snickers is pretty much the perfect candy so this year it gets the nod. Worst Halloween Candy Ranked

5. Butterfinger
4. Sour Patch anything
3. Jolly Rancher
2. Almond Joy
1. Skittles

There’s a simple reason why Republicans refuse to unequivocally condemn the attack on Paul Pelosi — they’ve spent years demonizing Nancy Pelosi. To treat her and her husband with basic decency would piss off their supporters. It’s pretty striking that one of the few Republican leaders who has responded appropriately to the assault of Paul Pelosi is … Mitch McConnell

https://twitter.com/leadermcconnell/status/1586017719912210440