After yesterday's intervention on net-zero, it's time for an assessment of Rishi Sunak.

TL;DR: he's doomed.🧵1/11 The core difficulty he faces, is the same core difficulty faced by all PMs since that fateful day in 2016.

He is having to navigate the gap - the chasm, rather - between the wishes and dreams of the Tory Right and reality/public opinion. 2/

We know that the plans of governments are often derailed by 'events'... and we know that, in recent years, COVID and the war in Ukraine have been hugely significant and disruptive.

But I'm becoming increasingly annoyed by the Govt's use of 'events' as an excuse. 🧵1/6 The most recent example is the attempt to blame striking NHS staff for the failure of the Govt to achieve its NHS waiting list targets.

Well... if the Govt doesn't invest in staff, then staff shortages, and strikes, are a predictable response. 2/

If there’s a unifying theme, it’s that people on the Right in the ‘culture wars’ want to act, and do act, as they please.

They do not believe that any negative consequences should attach to their words and actions. 1/3 They fail to see that their words and actions may have negative consequences for others, which those others may, legitimately, guard against.

It’s an individualistic mindset. And one which ignores power dynamics in society. 2/3

So... in the wake of the Starmer Express interview (personal highlight that our European 'friends' are 'eating our lunch' and 'nicking our dinner money too' (no, me neither)), what are people expecting a Starmer Govt to do on the question of Europe? 1/6 I see a lot of comments to the effect that he is saying what (he thinks) needs to be said in order to win an election.

This tends to be accompanied by hope (for others, fear) that, if he wins, he will change tack, and reveal his true colours. 2/

So much of the Brexit debate is the same.

People point out the consequences of being outside the EU, eg the extra checks required for people and goods to access the EU market.

And other people respond by saying it’s nothing to do with Brexit (and/or the EU’s fault). 1/6 Obviously all sorts of factors combine to produce effects on the economy.

Covid, the war in Ukraine, and govt ineptitude all play a role.

And so does Brexit. 2/6

Some thoughts on 'free speech' in the media, prompted by @DAaronovitch's excellent substack debut on the 'Sunak revival'. He starts by saying that he is 'free at last'. 🧵1/

davidaaronovitch.substack.com/p/some-are-whi… David is not alone. We have seen a huge number of analysts and commentators casting off the shackles, unmuzzling themselves, and *finally* able to tell us what they really think. There's @maitlis, @lewis_goodall, @AndrewMarr9; a parade of Tory MPs on GB News; etc etc. 2/

There's a lot being written about the meagre size of the rebellion against the Stormont Brake, Rishi Sunak's (halting) moves towards the centre ground, and the possible electoral dividends for the Tories.

A quick thread on the opposition he will face - from the Right. 🧵1/9 One of the undoubted features of recent politics - and not just in the UK - is the growth of populism. In the UK, it has been very much in evidence in the Brexit debate, and shows no sign of abating. 2/

I've written before making links between @ucu strikes and Brexit (see end of thread).

Yesterday's developments raise a rather unflattering point of comparison: how negotiators seek to explain how they 'extract concessions' from the other side. 1/10 The UCU's account of what is said to have forced a 'historic reversal' from the employer - 'a hugely significant victory' on pensions and 'significant movement' on pay etc - has many strands. Some might think that they can't all be right... 2/

A 🧵about Gary Lineker - a look at the arguments for imposing a sanction on him; why I think many of them are weak; and some broader thoughts on free speech. 1/16 (sorry, I got carried away) One argument is based on his contract with the BBC (whether as employer or contractor). That contract, like many others, may (or may not) include restrictive clauses. Employers often seek to protect their reputation, or to avoid financial loss. 2/

I wonder what connection there is between Tory MPs, frothing at Lineker’s comments; and Tim Davie and the BBC board, now taking action to ‘deliver impartiality’? 1/4 The root of the problem is the desire among politicians (it’s endemic in this Govt, but goes far wider) to have control over independent institutions, which might - God forbid - on occasion be critical of them. 2/4

A quick thread on the 'compassionate and generous' Illegal Migration Bill, with a focus on refugees. 1/ One can divide migrants into 3 groups.

'Economic migrants' (and we can debate which of those to allow into the UK), those, now I think only Ukraine and Hong Kong, to whom special more generous arrangements apply (and we can debate those), and refugees. 2/

The drip drip of lockdown revelations in the Telegraph, and the way it is driving the news agenda, is quite disturbing.

Yes - it is on one level entertaining to see Hancock’s trust in Oakeshott backfire. But… 1/ What we are seeing is *selective* leaks only from messages involving Hancock, used to construct a particular narrative about the Covid response. It is very easy for the Telegraph to convey whatever it is they want to convey. 2/

The comments on this are *everywhere*.

Notwithstanding the fact that *I* think that SM membership would be the best destination for the UK, I don't think that Sunak is even close to making that claim. 🧵1/7

https://twitter.com/ITVNewsPolitics/status/1630517445369688065

All he is saying is that NI has uniquely privileged access to both the EU and the UK market.

And that is indeed the result of the TCA, NI Protocol and now the Windsor Framework. 2/

A quick, non-technical, summary of where I think we are at with the substance of the Irish Protocol negotiations (I'll leave the politics to other threads...).

TL;DR: The Govt faces familiar choices and familiar problems. 🧵1/ The issue is very well illustrated by @rdanielkelemen's Venn Diagram.

Both the Protocol itself, and the latest negotiations, leave us arguing about the details in sector A. 2/

https://twitter.com/rdanielkelemen/status/1302994102125035522?s=20

The conclusion of this thread from earlier on the possible future of the Tory party, started me thinking 'about policies pursued in Govt' versus 'those put forward by Opposition parties'.

It made me think about today's Labour party. 1/

https://twitter.com/syrpis/status/1624355074104340483

My claim was that Govt's are burdened or tethered by reality, and that their more outlandish ambitions often founder on reality.

One can well imagine, for example, what the Brexitist wing of the Tory party would be saying in opposition... 2/

I've been reading a lot of interesting pieces on the future of the Conservative Party - in particular in the wake of what the polls suggest may be a heavy electoral defeat.

Some further reflections from me here (with links at the end of the thread). 🧵 1/8 First, the party is indeed divided, as Chris Grey says, between Brexitists and Traditionalists. On many of the big issues of the day, they offer very different diagnoses of the state of the UK, and so propose very different cures. 2/

At least part of the criticism of Sunak is, imv, misplaced. And that’s because of 3 features of today’s Tory party. 1/ 1. They look to be heading for electoral ruin. That means MPs are in a febrile mood.

2. They distrust Sunak. He betrayed Johnson, and many still hanker for him. Only last summer, the members overwhelmingly preferred… Truss. 2/

The right wing of the Tory party was back this week... with the 'deregulation = growth' line.

A thread, with an EU dimension, on why this isn't true, and why, if one needs to be simplistic, deregulation = not growth, but inequality. 🧵1/ It is easy to ignore this sort of line.

But this sort of sloganeering is effective (think 'take back control'), it changes people's minds, and it distorts the public debate. 2/

A thread about universities. 🧵

Change some of the details, and much the same is happening or has happened to the BBC, the NHS, and more. 1/11 Universities are valuable. They have global reach. They extend the UK's soft power. They do valuable research (eg on COVID), and they are (or they could be) 'engines of levelling up'. 2/

I'm over 50, and I have never had this thought before.

It's about Father Christmas. And I'm wondering 'why?'. 1/4 We (and this is true of various, Christian and not, midwinter traditions...) are urged to buy into the story that gifts come from a benevolent presence from afar; that we are lavished with bounty, to see us through the hard winter months. 2/4

I just caught up with last Friday's blog from @chrisgreybrexit, on the way in which Labour might begin to formulate a better Brexit policy.

The blog is here:
chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2022/12/theres…

It set me thinking. 1/9 In the blog, Chris argues that any attempt (by Labour) to rejoin the EU or the single market will not be well received by the EU, at least while there is a likelihood (or even a chance) of rejoining being reversed some time later by a subsequent (Tory) govt in the UK. 2/