Thomas Wood 🇺🇸 🌊 🇺🇦's Threads

Aug 8, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

I have always suspected (since early Jan 2021) that all the plans--Eastman’s fake electors scheme, Ted Cruz’s plan to have the states “review election results” etc., were intended to leave Trump in office AFTER the Constitutionally mandated deadline of Jan 20. 1/5 If he still occupied the WH on Jan 21 (there having been no transfer of power) it would have required military force to remove him, and a civil war would have been inevitable. 2/5

Jul 22, 2022 • 12 tweets • 3 min read

There are some further thoughts about the hearing tonight that I would like to add to my latest thread, which is now a Medium post. 1/11 tinyurl.com/2xlwqgal First, I should say that I think the Committee is doing a superlative job of showing Trump’s total unfitness for office. The thread only questions whether Trump could be charged and convicted for insurrection (or seditious conspiracy), not whether he is unfit for office. 2/11

Jul 22, 2022 • 16 tweets • 4 min read

While the evidence in this and previous hearings appears to me now to fall short of establishing seditious conspiracy, it might provide evidence for a charge of insurrection (18 U.S. Code § 2383 - Rebellion or insurrection). 1/15

Or does the evidence in its totality only show that Trump suffers from a “reality-distoring mental condition” (like maybe severe malignant narcissism)? 2/15

Jul 20, 2022 • 4 tweets • 1 min read

❗❗❗
Quinnipiac (538 rating A-):
Ds now +1 on the Congressional generic. 1/4 tinyurl.com/2a265o69 Significant shifts since the last June 8 poll. 2/4

Jul 17, 2022 • 9 tweets • 3 min read

Some interesting findings from recent polling.

NYT/Siena:

Although Biden’s approval ratings are dismal, and even lower than Trump’s, Biden beats Trump in a rematch.

Another good reason for thinking that elections are not going to track Biden’s low approval ratings. 1/8 42% of Rs want Trump to be the nominee in 2024. Only 25% want DeSantis (the only close runner-up) as nominee. But 16% of Rs say they would not vote for Trump in 2024, which would likely be fatal--all other things being equal--in the general. 2/8 tinyurl.com/2arnrlhy

Jul 3, 2022 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

I don’t want to sound like a broken record here (my apologies for the outdated metaphor) but the seditious conspiracy statute does not imply anything about the need to establish corrupt intent, any more than the first prong of 18 U.S. Code § 371 does. 1/4 @RDEliason @gtconway3d 18 U.S. Code § 2384 - Seditious conspiracy 2/4

Jun 29, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Unfortunately, unlike Marist, Monmouth did not ask about the likely political impact (generic Congressional ballot preference; support for or against candidates based on their position on abortion). Still, the Monmouth findings are bad for Rs. 1/5 tinyurl.com/22n8rnet Monmouth did ask “How much would it bother you?” questions. Hard to interpret the responses here. 60% believe that abortion should be legal in most or all cases, but most don’t seem to be bothered if it is banned in other states (with important, very strongly held provisos). 2/5

Jun 27, 2022 • 52 tweets • 8 min read

Pro-life advocates have been trying to put on a happy face when discussing the likely political consequences of the Dobbs ruling in the midterms and later elections. 1/51 A common theme of the messaging has been that the fever over the issue has broken; that the pro-life forces have won; that both sides will come to their senses and agree to disagree; 2/51

Jun 26, 2022 • 9 tweets • 2 min read

Interesting.

Lots of different opinions here about what the future holds on the abortion issue.

I'm convinced, like Charlie Sykes, that it will intensify the political divide b/w Rs and Ds.

And you?

(I also agree with Robin Marty’s forecast.)
tinyurl.com/26wbxmwn

Jun 22, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read

Trump's Big Lie is a big fascist lie. It cannot be assessed as a normal criminal lie, and it lives outside the contours of normal politics.

The Big Lie is all about subverting normal politics and the norms for criminal prosecution. tinyurl.com/2k5m5ehb Trump’s attempted coup, which was fascist in every respect, almost succeeded. That shows the fragility of American democracy.

Fortunately, however, it did fail, and Trump et al. will likely have to defend themselves in court against at least two federal charges. 1/10

Jun 22, 2022 • 7 tweets • 2 min read

Did Trump know or believe the scheme was illegal? Is he crazy? Does the willful blindness principle apply to him?

What all this misses is that *everything* Trump did is *exactly* what a mob boss or a fascist demagogue like Hitler would do. 1/6 Trump played (and is playing) a game to burn the whole system down with lies. It was all fascist, like Hitler.

That, rather than anything about Trump’s mind (which is admittedly twisted), is what explains “whack a mole” and his imperviousness to all evidence. 2/6

Jun 20, 2022 • 15 tweets • 4 min read

There will be two very likely and one possible charge against Trump by the DoJ.

They are: committing an offense or defrauding the government (18 U.S.C. § 371); obstruction of Congress (18 U.S. Code § 1505); and seditious conspiracy (18 U.S. Code § 2384). 1/14 In this thread I will argue that establishing that the intent was corrupt will be controversial or in play only with respect to a seditious conspiracy charge. 2/14

Jun 19, 2022 • 19 tweets • 4 min read

I am not a lawyer, but I would like to respectfully suggest that the wrong framework (establishing corrupt intent) is being applied by the lawyers and law professors who are weighing in on the question of what the DoJ would have to do to successfully prosecute Trump. 1/18 Corrupt intent goes to the question of motive, and is almost invariably applied to cases where one of the motives might have been bribery or improper influence, when, absent that motive, the act would have been lawful.

(Anyone can confirm this with a Google search.) 2/18

Jun 19, 2022 • 18 tweets • 4 min read

It has been overlooked that the Trump-Eastman scheme to overturn the election had two prongs.

One, the claim of widespread voter fraud, has been thoroughly debunked, and if I’m not mistaken there wasn’t a single such claim that had been shown to have any merit on Jan 6. 1/16 The second prong was the allegation that pandemic-related changes in voting procedures by election boards, precinct captains, and others in contested states violated laws and regulations that had been enacted in those states. 2/16

Jun 14, 2022 • 5 tweets • 3 min read

@JRubinBlogger I think this misreads the politics. Trump will continue with his Big Lie, and insist that Rs follow suit. If DeSantis goes along, he loses in the general. If he doesn’t, he will likely lose to Trump in the primaries as a weak RINO. The R party is going to implode over this. @JRubinBlogger The challenge might come soon. Trump may announce before the midterms, largely to thwart DeSantis. DeSantis has yet to say whether he thinks Biden’s election was legitimate. Most Rs think it wasn’t, and believe that Trump was not responsible for J6. tinyurl.com/25chwg39

Jun 14, 2022 • 20 tweets • 4 min read

Some J6 committee members have said that this is not about partisan politics.

That is only true in the sense that it is not about normal partisan politics.

The issue that is involved transcends and fundamentally challenges normal partisan politics. 1/19 Moreover, when we watch these hearings we are seeing a gigantic train wreck in the making for the GOP. 2/19

Jun 10, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Cheney’s all-out assault on the Big Lie was the crucial point, b/c if a candidate can claim election fraud in the absence of any evidence (and even in the face of compelling evidence that the claim is false!), then there might never again be a peaceful transfer of power. 1/5 Note that “Establish corrupt intent” is under-defined here.

It can mean: establish beyond a reasonable doubt that Trump did not actually believe that the election was stolen.

Since Trump is a malignant narcissistic madman and scumbag, this might be hard to prove in court. 2/5

May 22, 2022 • 11 tweets • 3 min read

Some takeaways from this Axios piece:

1/ Voters OPPOSE “abortion on demand” as embodied in the Women’s Health Protection Act. (Promotion of the WHPA has been called, appropriately, an act of “political malpractice” by the Ds);

BUT 1/10 tinyurl.com/yxnguakr 2/ Voters *do* strongly support a woman’s right to choose. (This is the essential point.)

3/ Most voters do not see the fetus as a person with rights, and even those who do see it as having a right believe that a woman has a greater right to choose to override it, 2/10

May 22, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

It is hard not to see this CBS/YouGov poll as providing considerable encouragement for Ds. (Pay attention to the Independents too when they are polled.) 1/7 tinyurl.com/y3rqw3u5 Perhaps most remarkably: All the pundits assume that the economy and inflation (and increasingly the chances of stagflation) are going to decimate Ds in the midterms. But this poll doesn’t support that. The margin favoring Ds on this issue is very small. 2/7

May 11, 2022 • 8 tweets • 3 min read

Musk says he opposes most (not all) permanent bans, and favors temporary bans instead. But then, how long could a temporary ban last? One day, one week, one month, one year? Does he realize how crazy, controversial, and confusing this could get? 1/7 tinyurl.com/y4rmenw4 “Musk didn’t say….” But the devil is in the details, as I’m sure any Twitter employee could tell him. 2/7

May 9, 2022 • 10 tweets • 2 min read

For at least a year leading up to the 2020 election, evangelical Christians were told (and believed) that Trump was chosen by God to save America from godless liberalism and communism. This meme was all over social media like FB and it was widely circulated in the churches. 1/9 (It was also a major meme of QAnon, but it was a widespread belief beyond that cult.) 2/9

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