The part is 'normal' demand side inflation (outlined in green).
The 'excessive of normal' demand-side inflation (the part above the green)
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Just the 'excessive of normal' demand-side inflation (the part above the green)
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Same exercise from the excess inflation from supply side
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Comparing the duration and size of excess inflation from demand (blue) and supply (green)
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My conclusion:
Excess demand side inflation been more persistent; Excess supply side inflation has been larger.
The Fed can't do much about the excess supply-side inflation which is larger part, but there is still plenty of excess demand-side inflation for the Fed to tame
/8
Onto oil, which the Fed has little control over, but still worth looking at bc it has been the number one contributor to headline CPI.
Start with a simple chart of Oil Prices (a bit dated)
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Two portions of inflation here.
One before the war, which was substantial, and the part after, which is also substantial.
Focusing on the increases:
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Side-by-side comparison of pre-war inflation and post-war inflation.
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And now both together with a conclusion:
* There is a lot of excess demand-side inflation that the Fed can address. So, good, do that.
* Most of the inflation the Fed cannot address (supply-side and energy) and that's bad.
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* I don’t see a reason to be excessively bullish in the immediate-term
* I do see a reason to be quite bullish with a longer-term view
13/13
This is how we look at the market and what CML Pro does with stocks.
* Facts A, B, C
* Analysis A, B, C
* Conclusions A, B, C
If done correctly, whether one agrees with analysis and conclusion, value is had just going through the exercise.
Australia, one of the biggest wheat exporters, is forecast to produce another huge crop this year, while Brazil’s biggest-growing area has so much corn it’s piling up outside bins.
Pitney Bowes is a global shipping and mailing company that provides technology, logistics, and financial services to more than 90 percent of the Fortune 500.
🧵/2
This should have worked for PBI -- this Borderfree software and it didn't. They are selling it at a loss.
They basically had a fire sale to $GLBE and said "ok you guys make it work, we'll keep doing our logistics thing."