$GLBE

Stock reaction is down due to full year GMV guidance ($4.71B) coming in a bit soft versus consensus ($4.73B) but as we discuss below, that guidance feels quite comfortably conservate and barring an economic collapse, we see GLBE outperforming.

A (short) thread

1/🧵 That $4.71B GMV guidance (at the midpoint) feels quite achievable if not conservative.

The number implies 32.4% YoY growth off of 2023 which saw 45% growth, but we can disentangle that further.

2/

We just have to be intellectually honest: the Federal Reserve simply cannot keep up with how fast inflation is falling.

A thread...

1/🧵 In September of 2023, the Fed's median estimate for Core PCE at the end of 2023 was 3.7%.

The Fed revised that last month to 3.2%; that alone is a wild misread.

Core PCE just came in at 2.9% for the full year.

2/

Wholesale Inflation Falls Again; #Disinflation Station

A thread

1/ The Producer Price Index (PPI), as opposed to Consumer Price Index (CPI) that we received yesterday, came in below estimates both for headline and core.

In fact, overall PPI MoM has come in negative for two consecutive quarters - that’s not disinflation, that’s deflation.

2/

$MSFT

/1 $CRWD

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$SPX So tight, so ready to break in one direction or the other. $QQQ Strength when compared to $SPX, but very tight.

Charts...

$AAPL

Breaks resistance or drops?

(patternfinder.substack.com)

/1 $MSFT

up or down?

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Wheat The S&P GSCI® is a composite index of the commodity sector.

The index consists of 24 commodities from all commodity sectors - energy products, industrial metals, agricultural products, livestock products, and precious metals.

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Charts in a 🧵

(Since earnings are over, this is a bet on macro for next few months.)

$GLBE I'm long; no short-term trades; just own it. But for those trading:

If goes down ~9%, there is room to the downside, but if maintains support, upside large in intermediate term.

/1 $SPX

Tight range; waiting to break out;

this chart is satisfying to my eye to communicate that sentiment:

Feels bullish on a big up day and bearish a big down day, which means no bias and wait and see:

(patternfinder.substack.com)

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$PTNG

patternfinder.substack.com

/1 $HCI

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$ONDS @OndasNetworks

》Backlog $12.9M

》 Revenue Guidance:
$28M (mid point)
• $2M revenue in 2022; 14x in 2023.

》 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance
-$22.5M (mid point)

》Market Cap: $88M

This reads as quite bullish to me. Source:
ir.ondas.com/press-releases…

$CMPR

» Profit zone: ~$65

» Current Price: $39.37

» Loss zone: ~$30

patternfinder.substack.com

🧵/1 $HALL

» Profit zone: ~$18 (gap fill)

» Current Price: 8.59

» Loss zone: ~$6 (prior resistance)

🧵/2

Another chart thread.

Looking for more upside (to nearest resistance) than downside (to nearest support).

Full screen attached as image.

Chart #1: $FIVN

• Resistance: $107
• Current Price: $83.55
• Support: $81 (tight stop)

patternfinder.substack.com

/1 Chart #2: $META

• Resistance: $240
• Current Price: $191
• Support: $184 (tight stop)

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$CERT

Interesting risk:reward;

• Loss zone is support ~$18

--- Current: $19---

• Profit zone is next congestion ~$24

A short thread of charts from Pattern Finder, using this screen (third image)

/1 $DCBO

Interesting risk:reward;

• Loss zone is support ~$38

--- Current: $40---

• Profit zone is next congestion ~$47

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Soon Pattern Finder will have distance to congestion in the screener; can find charts with favorable to risk: reward.

Here are a few examples; note distance to support (nearest congestion below stock), and distance to resistance (nearest congestion above stock.

/1 $CCU

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Some breakout charts; may need rest but good to form a list

$SILK

All of these come from Pattern Finder

Substack:
patternfinder.substack.com

Platform:
patternfinder.cmlviz.com/pattern-finder…

🧵/1 $TTD

🧵/2

• Fed's forecast for year-end rates: 5.1%

• Market pricing year-end rates: 4.36%

• Manufacturing in contraction
• Services in contraction
• Industrial production contraction
• Retail sales contraction

And this is w Fed officials calling for at least 75bps higher rates. Nov showed the highest tech job cuts ever (since tracking began in 2000 / Challenger Report) at 50K.

Just *this week*, two companies (MSFT, AMZN), announced 28K cuts.

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Short 🧵on charts

$SDRX Through 18-month and 3-year resistance

(patternfinder.substack.com)

/1 $TXRH

Through 3-year resistance

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Was hoping for abrupt CPI, like -0.4% MoM vs 0% consensus.

Got -0.1%, nice, but not needle moving for Fed, IMHO, unfortunately.

I like to say "inflation is the only thing that matters," but @jfahmy says it better:

"How the Fed sees inflation is the only thing that matters." And I don't think that the Fed's vision was changed.

Perhaps that shelter lag will finally crack (32% of CPI and 40% of Core CPI) soon.

The read was supper hot (+0.8%), but we know real-time looks like the charts below.

Has to break soon or Fed could muck this all up.

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Somethings I think or I hope and I think that I think them...

Short 🧵

/1 It's interesting how much news we get right at the end of the year.

1. Rents are falling considerably faster than estimates - so much so that they could in fact impact CPI lower even with the lag.

Accelerating deflation even seasonally adjusted.

...

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$SPX This is an amazing real-time change from Pattern Finder.

SPX 5-year support has changed - it's entirely algorithmic, there is no human input, there is no bias. This is strictly an algorithm which takes all of the data into account and draws the most relevant support.

/1 This is today's 5-year SPX chart, and we have drawn in where support was as of just yesterday:

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Fed

• +50 bps

• Peak rate 5.1% above estimates per dots

• 17/19 have rates above 5% from zero prior

• Quite hawkish ⤴️ Extending above tweet...

7/19 Fed officials are now above 5.4%.

This is a hawkish Fed; more so than even the expected hawkishness.

Pushes economic growth down more than 50% as well from prior level (0.5% from 1.2%).

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