Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #2018elections

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THREAD.

1/ I was looking through twitter today and saw how much people mistrust forecasts of the election. We are pretty bad at thinking probabilistically and it seems as if once a candidate is somewhere over 60% we default to assuming they are 100% to win
2/ so if they lose we declare the forecast (or the polls) wrong! This is, of course, aided and abetted by a lot of pundits. It’s very frustrating because I am not sure how we can fix the problem.
3/ Certainty is what people want. They don’t want to hear that one candidate is 25% and the other 75%. They want to know for sure. And the pundits are often more than happy to give them what they want, offering more certainty than the data offers.
Read 20 tweets
If #MuellerInvestigation can’t show collusion, an obstruction charge won’t stick. #Republican argument: Not a crime to stop a witch hunt. The better path if no collusion? Make #2018Elections a vote about whether #Trump is the best we can do. Then move on. latimes.com/politics/la-na…
Meanwhile, #Democrats would be wise to acknowledge politicization of senior #FBI & #CIA officials (esp Comey & Co’s handling of #Dossier, #Strzok fiasco, etc) and own the illegality of #ClintonEmails. The credibility earned would allow voters to better hear an inspired Dem pitch.
The #Democrat’s pitch? “We’re the adults who can fix what’s broken.” Otherwise, it’s just, “At least we’re not #Trump!” Americans are tired of hearing that argument. We want inspired, honest leadership, and a balanced path fwd. Start w/ #TermLimits. foxnews.com/opinion/2016/1…
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