Most recent unrolls from @ThreadReaderApp
If true, it looks like Russian truck fuel logistics has completely fallen part on the Rostov-Dzhankoy highway.
This has a lot of strategic geo-political implications.
A2AD & Truck Logistics 🧵
1/
This has a lot of strategic geo-political implications.
A2AD & Truck Logistics 🧵
1/
Given few/no trains, these are the Russian truck logistical facts of life:
1. At ~300 miles/480 km, tactical truck's only payload is fuel for a return trip**
2/
1. At ~300 miles/480 km, tactical truck's only payload is fuel for a return trip**
2/
2. A 56 mile/90 km radius from a supply point allows three trips a day with refueling & mechanized logistics to load & unload a truck
3/
3/
🧵II quadrante tra il Mar Caspio,il Caucaso meridionale,il Mar Nero e il Mediterraneo orientale si sta consolidando come nuova cintura geostrategica all'ombra della Russia che ridisegna la mappa dei rapporti di forza tra eurasia e occidente.
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(2)In questo quadro la Turchia ha assunto un ruolo centrale trasformandosi progressivamente in hub politico,commerciale, energetico e militare. Ankara vuole affermarsi come potenza regionale approfittando dell'impegno di Mosca nel conflitto in Ucraina.
(segue)
(segue)
(3)La ferrovia Baku–Tbilisi–Kars collega direttamente il Caspio con l’Anatolia e il Mediterraneo rafforzando la capacità della Turchia di orientare i flussi commerciali tra Asia ed Europa. Ankara estende la sua influenza nel Mediterraneo orientale e in Nord Africa.
(segue)
(segue)
Hilda Murrell, anti-nuclear activist in Shropshire, was murdered in ’84. Victor Norris, a Satanist who worked undercover for the UK govt, had been tasked w/ monitoring her group. David Myatt, also living in Shropshire & rumored to be an MI5 asset was later questioned in the case.
In Shropshire, Myatt built an Aryan enclave, wrote Nazi and O9A works, and taught martial arts. He was questioned about the murder of Hilda Murrell. Someone suspected of "dirty tricks" for MI5, who knew an associate of Myatt's committed su/cidε before he could be questioned.
Victor Norris was a neo-Nazi Satanist who founded the Anglican Satanic Church and worked undercover for the UK government under the name Contingency Services. He was tasked with infiltrating and monitoring left-wing and anti-nuclear groups.
1/ @RealDeanCain sums up #Zionism so well here. Let’s talk about the alignment of Zionism as a political movement to Judaism as a religion, noting that they are not the same. 🧵
2/ In contrast to those who find Zionism a violation of Halacha (Jewish law), deep and classical Rabbinic holds the opposite. In other words, Zionism is not only Halachic—it is a fulfillment of Torah law.
3/ The Ramban (Nachmanides, 13th century) explicitly rules that there is an eternal, positive Torah commandment (Mitzvah) to possess and dwell in the Land of Israel in every generation. He writes that the land must not be left in the hands of other nations or left desolate.
On this day in 1863, Black Americans began fighting for the U.S. Army after the creation of Bureau of Colored Troops. Those who served and loved the country that did not love them back.
Military History of African Americans.
A THREAD
Military History of African Americans.
A THREAD
Black Americans participated in every American war from the Revolutionary War, the War of 1812, the Mexican–American War, the Civil War, the Spanish–American War, World War I, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Gulf War, the War in Afghanistan, and the Iraq War.
Thousands of black troops, made up of both free men and enslaved, fought in the continental war. They were promised freedom for fighting but those promises were often broken.
!Atención! Álvaro Hernán Prada magistrado del CNE fue financiado en cientos de millones de pesos para el Congreso por Rodrigo Alberto Villegas Rivillas y sus empresas, condenado a 7 años/prisión por corrupción. Fue su Gerente de campaña ¿Qué dicen Uribe y Paloma Valencia? Hilo👇
La campaña de Álvaro Hernán Prada para el Congreso 2018-2022 tuvo ingresos totales por 514 millones y obtuvo financiación de particulares por 267 millones. Tuvo gastos de transporte por 200 millones y de propaganda por 211 millones. Todo gerenciado por Villegas Rivillas. Sigue👇
Si se analizan los financiadores de su campaña, se identifica a Rodrigo Alberto Villegas Rivillas, quien donó $3.750.000 pero eso NO ES TODO. La empresa Villegas Pineda Trilladores es de propiedad de la familia Pineda y Rivillas y le donó 50 millones. Aquí las pruebas. Sigue👇
#NOTICIA | 🔴 NO CUENTA CON ESCOLTA FEDERAL... LA ESCOLTA LA PAGA EL ESTADO.
Eso dijo Omar García Harfuch, lavándose las manos como Poncio Pilato. Mientras tanto, el gobernador "prófugo" Rubén Rocha Moya se esconde detrás de la misma policía estatal que él mismo corrompió.
Abrimos HILO: El Narcoestado sinaloense al descubierto 🇲🇽🧵
Eso dijo Omar García Harfuch, lavándose las manos como Poncio Pilato. Mientras tanto, el gobernador "prófugo" Rubén Rocha Moya se esconde detrás de la misma policía estatal que él mismo corrompió.
Abrimos HILO: El Narcoestado sinaloense al descubierto 🇲🇽🧵
💢 LO QUE DICEN EN EL TEATRO FEDERAL: 💢
👉 "El combate al narco ha sido claro y contundente"
👉 "El mandatario está en su estado, no pasa nada"
👉 Presumen "Operación Enjambre" atrapando a un alcalde de pueblo en Morelos
💢 LO QUE LAS PRUEBAS GRITAN: 💢
👉 1 gobernador con licencia
👉 1 alcalde
👉 1 senador
👉 7 altos funcionarios acusados formalmente de narcotráfico.
Ya cayeron en EE.UU. dos exsecretarios de primer nivel de Rocha. ¿Y EN MÉXICO? Cero órdenes de aprehensión serias en nuestro país contra la cúpula.
👉 "El combate al narco ha sido claro y contundente"
👉 "El mandatario está en su estado, no pasa nada"
👉 Presumen "Operación Enjambre" atrapando a un alcalde de pueblo en Morelos
💢 LO QUE LAS PRUEBAS GRITAN: 💢
👉 1 gobernador con licencia
👉 1 alcalde
👉 1 senador
👉 7 altos funcionarios acusados formalmente de narcotráfico.
Ya cayeron en EE.UU. dos exsecretarios de primer nivel de Rocha. ¿Y EN MÉXICO? Cero órdenes de aprehensión serias en nuestro país contra la cúpula.
El modus operandi es clarísimo:
Pides licencia para evitar el desafuero fulminante, te refugias en tu bastión y dejas que la Policía Estatal (la misma que hasta hace poco comandaba Gerardo Mérida Sánchez, hoy preso en EE.UU. por trabajar para el Cártel de Sinaloa) te haga de guardia pretoriana.
No te están protegiendo del narco. Te está protegiendo el brazo armado del narco.
Pides licencia para evitar el desafuero fulminante, te refugias en tu bastión y dejas que la Policía Estatal (la misma que hasta hace poco comandaba Gerardo Mérida Sánchez, hoy preso en EE.UU. por trabajar para el Cártel de Sinaloa) te haga de guardia pretoriana.
No te están protegiendo del narco. Te está protegiendo el brazo armado del narco.
1/ Who missed Hormuz?
2/ When asked during a recent @60Minutes interview whether Israel anticipated that Iran might move to close the Strait of Hormuz, an uncharacteristically sheepish Bibi Netanyahu (@netanyahu) almost completely avoided eye contact with interviewer Major Garrett (@MajorCBS) — eventually conceding that “the problem of the Hormuz Strait was understood as the fighting went on.”
3/ When asked about whether the US anticipated Iran would close the strait and conduct strikes on its neighbors, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth (@PeteHegseth) responded: “I can’t say we anticipated necessarily that’s exactly how they would react.”
Today WorkOS is launching auth.md
An open protocol for agents to register for services on the web.
We're partnering with @Cloudflare and @Firecrawl as some of the first providers.
Why did we build this? And why now? 🧵
An open protocol for agents to register for services on the web.
We're partnering with @Cloudflare and @Firecrawl as some of the first providers.
Why did we build this? And why now? 🧵
For 20 years, signup flows were built for humans:
• Buttons
• Forms
• Email verification
• OAuth consent screens
• CAPTCHAs
• Admin dashboards
These assume a human is sitting in front of a browser clicking around.
Agents break that assumption.
• Buttons
• Forms
• Email verification
• OAuth consent screens
• CAPTCHAs
• Admin dashboards
These assume a human is sitting in front of a browser clicking around.
Agents break that assumption.
Agents need a first-class registration flow. Not a brittle browser automation hack.
Not impersonating a human user. Not fighting to get around CAPTCHAs.
Agents need a simple way to answer:
• How do I register?
• What scopes can I request?
• How do I prove the user approved this?
That’s what auth.md does.
Not impersonating a human user. Not fighting to get around CAPTCHAs.
Agents need a simple way to answer:
• How do I register?
• What scopes can I request?
• How do I prove the user approved this?
That’s what auth.md does.
🚨NEW — The Maricopa County Board of Supervisors is attempting an ILLEGAL POWER GRAB over early voting.
They advanced a resolution this week to SET UP early voting drop boxes.
But Arizona law gives that power ONLY to the County Recorder.
They’ve been warned.
They advanced a resolution this week to SET UP early voting drop boxes.
But Arizona law gives that power ONLY to the County Recorder.
They’ve been warned.
Arizona law is crystal clear.
A.R.S. § 16-542(A):
“The county recorder may establish… early voting locations… the recorder deems necessary.”
ONLY the recorder. NOT the board.
Early ballots must be “delivered or mailed to the county recorder.”
Drop boxes run by the board during early voting are NOT legal. Period.
A.R.S. § 16-542(A):
“The county recorder may establish… early voting locations… the recorder deems necessary.”
ONLY the recorder. NOT the board.
Early ballots must be “delivered or mailed to the county recorder.”
Drop boxes run by the board during early voting are NOT legal. Period.
Setting up unauthorized drop boxes is a class 5 felony under A.R.S. § 16-1005(E).
Collecting early ballots without the Recorder’s authority is a class 6 felony under A.R.S. § 16-1005(H).
Collecting early ballots without the Recorder’s authority is a class 6 felony under A.R.S. § 16-1005(H).
June 13, 2025. Vance Boelter gives his housemate $900 in cash, four months of rent in advance. Texts: "I may be dead shortly."
Six hours later, two MN legislators shot in their homes.
Methodology for detecting someone like Boelter on public record BEFORE June 14🧵
Six hours later, two MN legislators shot in their homes.
Methodology for detecting someone like Boelter on public record BEFORE June 14🧵
2/
Federal record is sealed. Likely stays that way.
This thread isn’t about whether Boelter acted alone.
It’s about a methodology question with a 50-year answer.
andrewpiskadlo.substack.com/p/detectable-a…
Federal record is sealed. Likely stays that way.
This thread isn’t about whether Boelter acted alone.
It’s about a methodology question with a 50-year answer.
andrewpiskadlo.substack.com/p/detectable-a…
3/
1981: Tversky & Kahneman prove “200 saved” and “400 lost” produce opposite choices on identical math.
1984: Cialdini names six levers. Sales floors, fundraising, intel recruitment.
2014: Cambridge Analytica weaponizes them at 87M-profile scale.
2017: PNAS confirms ad susceptibility at p<0.001.
1981: Tversky & Kahneman prove “200 saved” and “400 lost” produce opposite choices on identical math.
1984: Cialdini names six levers. Sales floors, fundraising, intel recruitment.
2014: Cambridge Analytica weaponizes them at 87M-profile scale.
2017: PNAS confirms ad susceptibility at p<0.001.
The realistic float for $HYPE is ~200m tokens
At a pace of $15m/trading day inflows and current $58 price, that will retire around 5-5.5m HYPE/month. The Assistance Fund gets a further 1-1.5m a month
So two tiny ETF issuers and the protocol itself would retire ~3-3.5%/month
👇
At a pace of $15m/trading day inflows and current $58 price, that will retire around 5-5.5m HYPE/month. The Assistance Fund gets a further 1-1.5m a month
So two tiny ETF issuers and the protocol itself would retire ~3-3.5%/month
👇
My personal underwriting for the chances of and expected size of a significant future airdrop are both quite low.
I think many have been scared by the “fully diluted value” but I’d posit that it’s substantially closer to the current circ ($12-15b) than people think
These community tokens may end up being burned or extremely slow dripped as staking rewards
I think many have been scared by the “fully diluted value” but I’d posit that it’s substantially closer to the current circ ($12-15b) than people think
These community tokens may end up being burned or extremely slow dripped as staking rewards
It’s hard to imagine why Jeff would increase the float given existing traction
It seems inevitable that larger ETF issuers will eventually join the party, which could retire float (caveat: at current price!) substantially faster than the current run rate
Something has to give
It seems inevitable that larger ETF issuers will eventually join the party, which could retire float (caveat: at current price!) substantially faster than the current run rate
Something has to give
1.500.000 de pertes. L'armée russe a perdu 1,5 millions d'hommes.
Elle est incapable de soutenir le niveau de pertes qu'elle subit en Ukraine et continue à perdre 25 à 30k hommes chaque mois, si bien qu'elle rétrécit et perd en compétence. Tous les indicateurs sont au rouge👇🧶
Elle est incapable de soutenir le niveau de pertes qu'elle subit en Ukraine et continue à perdre 25 à 30k hommes chaque mois, si bien qu'elle rétrécit et perd en compétence. Tous les indicateurs sont au rouge👇🧶
D'abord un constat : le soldat russe est un consommable, au même titre qu'un obus ou un missile. Les primes au recrutement atteignent des plafonds, ce qui fait du soldat russe un mercenaire, mais cela ne suffit pas et l'armée russe cherche des alternatives.
Les entreprises russes doivent désormais envoyer un quota de leurs salariés pour combattre en Ukraine : 2 recrues pour 150 à 300 salariés, 3 pour 300 à 500, 5 au-delà. C'est écrit noir sur blanc ici 👇
publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/62002…
publication.pravo.gov.ru/document/62002…
The "epidemiology" of Ebola tells us that it's not airborne. You've heard this over and over.
What drives it? The questions on the contact tracing form.
Quick 🧵.
What drives it? The questions on the contact tracing form.
Quick 🧵.
COVID - the WHO and CDC said it wasn't airborne via aerosols, right?
The CDC said it was spread person to person via close contact - within about 6 feet.
And you remember it took FOREVER to get changed.
The contact tracing form was web.archive.org/web/2020032817…
The CDC said it was spread person to person via close contact - within about 6 feet.
And you remember it took FOREVER to get changed.
The contact tracing form was web.archive.org/web/2020032817…
arranged around close contact. These are the questions driving the stats of how many and how are infected.
So, the CDC will only hear back what it's asking. This was the epidemiology of COVID - until it wasn't. web.archive.org/web/2020052514…
So, the CDC will only hear back what it's asking. This was the epidemiology of COVID - until it wasn't. web.archive.org/web/2020052514…
India's new birth report just revealed a TFR of 1.88, a little below replacement.
But unlike most countries, 🇮🇳 does not have a crisis of low births. With its young population, India had 23 million births, 3x more than any other country.
A look at how India is different. 🧵!
But unlike most countries, 🇮🇳 does not have a crisis of low births. With its young population, India had 23 million births, 3x more than any other country.
A look at how India is different. 🧵!
South Asia is the one region where marriage remains almost universal even as it has collapsed nearly everywhere else. Why? Arranged marriage.
In China, Korea and Japan, arranged marriage was common but became rare.
In India by contrast, arranged marriage remains the norm. 2/7
In China, Korea and Japan, arranged marriage was common but became rare.
In India by contrast, arranged marriage remains the norm. 2/7
India's age profile for births tells a remarkable story. Indian births peak in the early 20s, and most women stop well before age 30.
India is a populous and crowded county, and so most Indian women simply choose to limit their fertility for that reason. 3/7
India is a populous and crowded county, and so most Indian women simply choose to limit their fertility for that reason. 3/7
American bombardiers said they could drop a bomb into a pickle barrel from 20,000 feet.
The device they used to do it cost America $1.1 billion to build.
90,000 of them were manufactured during WW2.
Pilots took an oath to destroy it before letting it fall into enemy hands.
The Nazis had already stolen the plans in 1938.
This is the story of the Norden bombsight..🧵1/5
The device they used to do it cost America $1.1 billion to build.
90,000 of them were manufactured during WW2.
Pilots took an oath to destroy it before letting it fall into enemy hands.
The Nazis had already stolen the plans in 1938.
This is the story of the Norden bombsight..🧵1/5
🧵 2/5
By the late 1920s a Dutch born American engineer named Carl Norden was working on a problem that no air force in the world had solved.
How to drop a bomb from 20,000 feet in the air, traveling at hundreds of miles per hour, into something the size of a small building.
The math was punishing.
The bomb had to be released early enough to fall through wind and air resistance to a target the bombardier could no longer see.
Speed, altitude, drift, temperature, the curvature of the earth — all of it had to be calculated in real time by a man looking through a small telescope in a moving aircraft.
Carl Norden built a machine that did it for him.
The Norden bombsight was a 50 pound electromechanical analog computer containing approximately 2,000 precision parts.
Gyroscopes. Motors. Gears. Mirrors. A telescopic sight. A rotating directional indicator.
An autopilot link that allowed the bombsight to actually fly the aircraft during the final minutes of the bomb run, holding the bomber rock steady on its approach to the target.
The bombardier set the variables.
The Norden calculated the release point.
The Norden flew the aircraft.
The Norden dropped the bombs.
In controlled tests it seemed astonishingly accurate.
Bombs were placed inside areas the size of football fields from four miles up.
By the late 1920s a Dutch born American engineer named Carl Norden was working on a problem that no air force in the world had solved.
How to drop a bomb from 20,000 feet in the air, traveling at hundreds of miles per hour, into something the size of a small building.
The math was punishing.
The bomb had to be released early enough to fall through wind and air resistance to a target the bombardier could no longer see.
Speed, altitude, drift, temperature, the curvature of the earth — all of it had to be calculated in real time by a man looking through a small telescope in a moving aircraft.
Carl Norden built a machine that did it for him.
The Norden bombsight was a 50 pound electromechanical analog computer containing approximately 2,000 precision parts.
Gyroscopes. Motors. Gears. Mirrors. A telescopic sight. A rotating directional indicator.
An autopilot link that allowed the bombsight to actually fly the aircraft during the final minutes of the bomb run, holding the bomber rock steady on its approach to the target.
The bombardier set the variables.
The Norden calculated the release point.
The Norden flew the aircraft.
The Norden dropped the bombs.
In controlled tests it seemed astonishingly accurate.
Bombs were placed inside areas the size of football fields from four miles up.
🧵 3/5
The United States government treated the Norden bombsight as one of the most closely guarded secrets in the war.
Some historians later argued that the secrecy was a deliberate decoy designed to distract enemy intelligence from the Manhattan Project.
Whether by accident or design, the United States spent the equivalent of $24 billion in modern dollars to build the Norden program.
90,000 bombsights rolled off production lines between 1939 and 1945.
Every American bombardier in the Pacific and European theaters took a solemn oath.
He swore to defend the Norden with his life.
The bombsights were carried to and from aircraft under armed guard in locked metal cases.
They were installed and removed before and after every mission.
The bombardier on the bomb run was the only crew member permitted to see the Norden in operation.
Each Norden installation included a small thermite grenade.
If a bomber was shot down or about to be captured, the bombardier was required to detonate the thermite charge on top of the Norden.
The grenade burned at over 4,000 degrees.
It would melt the bombsight into a slag of unrecognizable metal.
Some versions of the oath were dramatic enough to include the idea that the bombardier should die before letting the sight be captured.
This was the most carefully protected piece of military technology in American history.
It had also been completely compromised before the war began.
The United States government treated the Norden bombsight as one of the most closely guarded secrets in the war.
Some historians later argued that the secrecy was a deliberate decoy designed to distract enemy intelligence from the Manhattan Project.
Whether by accident or design, the United States spent the equivalent of $24 billion in modern dollars to build the Norden program.
90,000 bombsights rolled off production lines between 1939 and 1945.
Every American bombardier in the Pacific and European theaters took a solemn oath.
He swore to defend the Norden with his life.
The bombsights were carried to and from aircraft under armed guard in locked metal cases.
They were installed and removed before and after every mission.
The bombardier on the bomb run was the only crew member permitted to see the Norden in operation.
Each Norden installation included a small thermite grenade.
If a bomber was shot down or about to be captured, the bombardier was required to detonate the thermite charge on top of the Norden.
The grenade burned at over 4,000 degrees.
It would melt the bombsight into a slag of unrecognizable metal.
Some versions of the oath were dramatic enough to include the idea that the bombardier should die before letting the sight be captured.
This was the most carefully protected piece of military technology in American history.
It had also been completely compromised before the war began.
Thyroïde & Goitre, Le Bouclier des Druides
La thyroïde est le "chef d'orchestre" de votre métabolisme. Quand elle gonfle, c'est le signal d'alarme : le goitre s'installe. Pourtant, la nature nous a donné tout ce qu'il faut pour protéger ce papillon de vie. 🧵
La thyroïde est le "chef d'orchestre" de votre métabolisme. Quand elle gonfle, c'est le signal d'alarme : le goitre s'installe. Pourtant, la nature nous a donné tout ce qu'il faut pour protéger ce papillon de vie. 🧵
L'Ingrédient Maître : L'Iode Organique.
La cause n°1 du goitre est la carence en iode. Nos grands-mères ne parlaient pas de chimie, mais elles connaissaient la puissance des produits de la mer et des sols riches.
La cause n°1 du goitre est la carence en iode. Nos grands-mères ne parlaient pas de chimie, mais elles connaissaient la puissance des produits de la mer et des sols riches.
Le Remède des Anciens : Le Bouillon Reminéralisant.
L'astuce consiste à intégrer des algues (comme le Kombu ou le Kelp) dans l'alimentation quotidienne. C'est le "carburant" direct de votre thyroïde.
L'astuce consiste à intégrer des algues (comme le Kombu ou le Kelp) dans l'alimentation quotidienne. C'est le "carburant" direct de votre thyroïde.
🧵Google Earth has updated its satellite imagery to 2026 for the central and south Gaza strip.
In this thread, we will be going over some areas that I found interesting while I explored the update.
If you want a screenshot of a site, reply with the coordinates, and ill send.
In this thread, we will be going over some areas that I found interesting while I explored the update.
If you want a screenshot of a site, reply with the coordinates, and ill send.
Before we begin, it is necessary to note that, as this update only occurred today, it is only available on the Google Earth "Pro" application, available on PC/Laptop, not on the web version.
More info on how to download Google Earth Pro:
Now let's begin!
More info on how to download Google Earth Pro:
Now let's begin!
Zoomed out image of Rafah City and the wider Rafah Governorate, dated February 24, 2026.
Non-lawyers and many lawyers with strident political views hate stare decisis, the doctrine that says that courts are supposed to follow precedents.
But stare decisis is both essential for a functioning legal system and mandated by the Constitution.
But stare decisis is both essential for a functioning legal system and mandated by the Constitution.
Let's start with a famous Onion headline, "Area Man Passionate Defender Of What He Imagines Constitution To Be".
Think about WHY this is so funny.
theonion.com/area-man-passi…
Think about WHY this is so funny.
theonion.com/area-man-passi…
The basic point is that all of us have opinions about what we think the Constitution means, consider those opinions to be the "right" interpretation, and get mad when they are not followed. But no legal system works on "however anyone subjectively interprets the law is the law".
🚨What if rocks could trap CO₂ faster than nature ever does, at the atomic scale?
A recent study reveals how water can dramatically accelerate CO₂ mineralization on mineral surfaces, unlocking faster long-term #CarbonStorage.
Details🧵1/9
A recent study reveals how water can dramatically accelerate CO₂ mineralization on mineral surfaces, unlocking faster long-term #CarbonStorage.
Details🧵1/9
2/ For decades, scientists assumed CO₂ turns into stable carbonate rock through a slow, two-step process:
CO₂ dissolves in water → minerals dissolve → carbonates slowly form.
This made geological storage reliable, but extremely slow.
CO₂ dissolves in water → minerals dissolve → carbonates slowly form.
This made geological storage reliable, but extremely slow.
3/ But real-world observations didn’t fully match this slow picture.
In some environments, carbonate minerals form surprisingly quickly, suggesting an alternative, faster reaction pathway might exist.
In some environments, carbonate minerals form surprisingly quickly, suggesting an alternative, faster reaction pathway might exist.
🧵 NET MIGRATION AND THE LABOUR PARTY
The Office for National Statistics has reported that ‘net migration’ – the difference between those coming to live here long-term and those leaving – fell to 171,000 last year. The figure has almost halved from 331,000 in 2024.
On the surface, this looks like a rare win for the prime minister’s flailing premiership. Starmer is the man who once famously branded Tory migration policy an “experiment,” and warned of Britain becoming an “island of strangers”.
It is just as well for him that the migrant inflows are now coming down. Yet beneath the headlines, the picture is not nearly as rosy as many assume....
The Office for National Statistics has reported that ‘net migration’ – the difference between those coming to live here long-term and those leaving – fell to 171,000 last year. The figure has almost halved from 331,000 in 2024.
On the surface, this looks like a rare win for the prime minister’s flailing premiership. Starmer is the man who once famously branded Tory migration policy an “experiment,” and warned of Britain becoming an “island of strangers”.
It is just as well for him that the migrant inflows are now coming down. Yet beneath the headlines, the picture is not nearly as rosy as many assume....
1. CLINGING TO JAMES CLEVERLY'S COATTAILS
For one thing, the fall in net migration is not entirely down to the hard-nosed grit of Labour’s Home Office. Much of the credit belongs to Tory MP James Cleverly and the eleventh-hour reforms he pushed through in the dying months of the last Conservative government.
Cleverly banned dependants from joining low-skilled care workers and effectively did the same for international students, barring exceptional cases like PhD programmes.
He also raised the minimum salary requirement for migrant workers to £38,700 from its previous level of £26,200.
Cleverly was no immigration hardliner. He should have ended Priti Patel’s recruitment of care workers altogether and cracked down far harder on visa routes that are routinely gamed, above all the student and asylum routes.
Still, credit where it’s due: his reforms have dragged the numbers down. And now Labour are clinging to his coattails and taking the plaudits wherever they can. Only @MikeTappTweets, Mahmood’s junior minister, has been willing to give Cleverly his fair due.
For one thing, the fall in net migration is not entirely down to the hard-nosed grit of Labour’s Home Office. Much of the credit belongs to Tory MP James Cleverly and the eleventh-hour reforms he pushed through in the dying months of the last Conservative government.
Cleverly banned dependants from joining low-skilled care workers and effectively did the same for international students, barring exceptional cases like PhD programmes.
He also raised the minimum salary requirement for migrant workers to £38,700 from its previous level of £26,200.
Cleverly was no immigration hardliner. He should have ended Priti Patel’s recruitment of care workers altogether and cracked down far harder on visa routes that are routinely gamed, above all the student and asylum routes.
Still, credit where it’s due: his reforms have dragged the numbers down. And now Labour are clinging to his coattails and taking the plaudits wherever they can. Only @MikeTappTweets, Mahmood’s junior minister, has been willing to give Cleverly his fair due.
2. MIGRANT WORKERS
The reality is that Labour has done very little beyond tweaking the Skilled Worker visa route and banning overseas care worker recruitment.
On the one hand, the move to ban migrant carers will finally force care home bosses to abandon their Dickensian business models and offer better wages and working conditions.
But for that to work, Labour will need to cough up serious money for local authorities. Many care home operators are dysfunctional, debt-ridden outfits barely staying afloat as it is.
Whether Labour has any real plan to deal with that remains to be seen. But the ban on overseas recruitment has nevertheless had a *decisive* impact on net migration.
Labour has also tightened up the standard Skilled Worker route, pushing the skill requirement back to degree-level only. This wiped out around 100-180 sub-degree roles from standard sponsorship – including hotel managers, hospitality supervisors, and warehouse managers.
But there is, I am afraid, a catch in all this. Lower-skilled jobs can still be sponsored if they appear on either the Immigration Salary List (ISL), or the new Temporary Shortage List (TSL).
The ISL handles exceptions with a lower baseline salary threshold, while the TSL is the interim safety net for sub-degree roles below the new skill cap. The saving grace is that workers on these lists are barred from bringing dependants – but the roles themselves are a joke.
Some of the jobs included on the Temporary Shortage List are extraordinary: HR professionals (!!!), insurance underwriters, make-up artists, packaging designers, bookkeepers, payroll managers, wage clerks, vehicle paint technicians and, one of my personal favourites, “hovercraft officers”.
I do not know about you, but I seriously doubt Britain is suffering from a crippling shortage of HR officers and insurance underwriters. If anything, those professions probably suffer from over-supply rather than scarcity.
As for the supposed shortage of hovercraft officers, I plead complete ignorance.
The reality is that Labour has done very little beyond tweaking the Skilled Worker visa route and banning overseas care worker recruitment.
On the one hand, the move to ban migrant carers will finally force care home bosses to abandon their Dickensian business models and offer better wages and working conditions.
But for that to work, Labour will need to cough up serious money for local authorities. Many care home operators are dysfunctional, debt-ridden outfits barely staying afloat as it is.
Whether Labour has any real plan to deal with that remains to be seen. But the ban on overseas recruitment has nevertheless had a *decisive* impact on net migration.
Labour has also tightened up the standard Skilled Worker route, pushing the skill requirement back to degree-level only. This wiped out around 100-180 sub-degree roles from standard sponsorship – including hotel managers, hospitality supervisors, and warehouse managers.
But there is, I am afraid, a catch in all this. Lower-skilled jobs can still be sponsored if they appear on either the Immigration Salary List (ISL), or the new Temporary Shortage List (TSL).
The ISL handles exceptions with a lower baseline salary threshold, while the TSL is the interim safety net for sub-degree roles below the new skill cap. The saving grace is that workers on these lists are barred from bringing dependants – but the roles themselves are a joke.
Some of the jobs included on the Temporary Shortage List are extraordinary: HR professionals (!!!), insurance underwriters, make-up artists, packaging designers, bookkeepers, payroll managers, wage clerks, vehicle paint technicians and, one of my personal favourites, “hovercraft officers”.
I do not know about you, but I seriously doubt Britain is suffering from a crippling shortage of HR officers and insurance underwriters. If anything, those professions probably suffer from over-supply rather than scarcity.
As for the supposed shortage of hovercraft officers, I plead complete ignorance.
