Most recent unrolls from @ThreadReaderApp

Jan 14
HOW TO TIME SWING TRADES 101

Stocks and the market don’t move in straight lines.
They move in cycles.

If you start thinking in cycles, your timing for entries and exits improves fast.

This is the only thread you'll ever need 🧵 Image
Most “bad swing trades” are not bad picks, they’re bad context.

Great breakout + wrong market phase = chop, decay, doubt, exit.

Here’s the difference between pros and novices:
Novices trade what they see right now.
Pros trade the phase we’re in and wait for confirmation.
Market phases show up over and over:
- Sweet spot (trend is clean)
- Compression (pause inside trend)
- Channel (trend still up, but choppy)
- Transition (range, whipsaws, survival mode) Image
Read 18 tweets
Jan 14
Dass CDU/CSU so sehr gegen das Gendern gekämpft haben, könnte die Folge eines Geldflusses von religiösen Extremisten gewesen sein.

Wes Brot ich ess, des Lied ich sing?

Der Bericht ist schon älter aber kaum bekannt.



1/x epfweb.org/node/837Image
Erstaunlich, wie religiös verblendete Extremisten sich gegen die biologischen Tatsachen mit einem Einsatz von rund einer Milliarde Euro weltweit eingesetzt haben.

Wer nur in der Hauptschule war, glaubt wohl es gäbe nur XX und XY.

Das ist aber falsch.

epfweb.org/node/551Image
Man kann versuchen all diese Varianten in zwei Gruppen zu sortieren.

Wenn man dabei dann aber nach "weiblichem Aussehen" sortiert, rutschen automatisch XY-Menschen hinein, die dem Swyer Syndrom zugeordnet werden. Was dann? Es passt halt nicht in nur zwei Gruppen! Image
Read 17 tweets
Jan 14
pilar.von.oldenburg@aktionsosleben.de

Aktion: EU-Abtreibungstourismus verhindern

Liebe Freunde des Lebens,

das Ziel der Abtreibungslobby ist die totale Liberalisierung der Abtreibung in ganz Europa.

Seit Jahren werden EU-Institutionen von der
europäischen Abtreibungslobby zu Handlangern des Todes gemacht.

Ihr neuestes Projekt des Todes: staatsfinanzierter Abtreibungstourismus!

Das ist leider keine Übertreibung. Sie haben vielleicht von der radikalen Abtreibungsentschließung „My Voice,
My Choice“ gehört. Diese wurde am 17. Dezember 2025 vom EU-Parlament verabschiedet.

Darin wird die tatsächliche Finanzierung von Abtreibungsreisen gefordert: Die EU soll Reisen von Müttern finanzieren, die in ihrem Heimatland nicht abtreiben dürfen, wie etwa in Polen.
Read 11 tweets
Jan 14
1/ This is all true, but Trump doesn't appear to care about anything that doesn't affect him personally.
2/ A new paper in the journal International Organization gives a good explanation of Trump's organising principle, which the authors call "neo-royalism" (analogous to roughly 16th century Europe):
3/ "The neo-royalist order centers on an international system structured by a small group of hyper elites, which we term cliques.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 14
🧵 "I fattori di capacità reali delle rinnovabili italiane"

Per "fattore di capacità" di un sistema di produzione di energia si intende il rapporto tra l'energia effettivamente prodotta in un certo intervallo di tempo e l'energia massima producibile nello stesso ⤵️
intervallo di tempo. Cioè:

F.C. = Ep / (Pnom ∙ T)

Essendo:

F.C.: fattore di capacità
Ep: energia effettivamente prodotta
Pnom: potenza nominale
T: intervallo di tempo

Da questa definizione, risulta chiaro che, più l’impianto produce energia lavorando il più possibile alla ⤵️
sua potenza nominale e più il fattore di capacità si avvicina all’unità. Viceversa, più la produzione di energia avviene a potenze più basse di quella nominale e più questo fattore si avvicinerà allo zero.

Poiché esso riveste particolare importanza per le fonti rinnovabili ⤵️
Read 13 tweets
Jan 14
Most PMs struggle with difficult stakeholders. The advice? "Be more strategic." "Manage up better."

Sounds smart—but it's useless. If it worked, you'd already be doing it.

The real solution? It’s not what you think. Here’s what actually works 🧠👇
1/ First, a reality check:

If you're dealing with aggressive stakeholders, you're not alone. I spent 2 years getting steamrolled in meetings until I discovered how behavioral psychology changes everything.
2/ The core problem isn't your stakeholders.

It's that you're using logic to solve an emotional problem.

This is why "showing the data" often backfires - it makes angry stakeholders even more defensive.
Read 22 tweets
Jan 14
Such Islamists in the video are not proponents of the people of Iran.
They are behind of the making of Global Caliphate.
Israel by itself need a power to free them from the ongoing things otherwise the real temple won't be established.
These Saudis and similar Islamists all are the army of Antichrist to prevent the prophecies in the Bible.
Don't be fooled by what they say. They are looking to fulfill the establishment of Global Caliphate. Shame on them!

x.com/plasticartman2…
Although Iran is not in a good situation but the ongoing agenda of Islamism is to disprove Bible and Biblical events and prophecies.
In the Bible there is no sign of the helping of Christians and Israel to Iran to get freedom.
If they do this agenda of Islamism then they become successful in disproving the Bible and make their own Global Caliphate.

Don't pay attention to them. Let them bark and cry for their hell of the Global Caliphate.
The establishment of the Global Caliphate equals death for all Christians. Then don't help them to reach their goals.
Read 4 tweets
Jan 14
This is either a profound misunderstanding of the data or a deliberate misrepresentation of it.🧵
2/ The "three deaths" claim is wrong. Pre-vaccine, rotavirus caused 20 to 60 deaths annually in US children under 5. But focusing on deaths misses the point: rotavirus caused 410,000 physician visits, 200,000+ ER visits, and 55,000-70,000 hospitalizations every year, costing about $1 billion annually. Since vaccination, hospitalizations dropped ~80%. The vaccine prevents 40,000-50,000 hospitalizations per year.
cdc.gov/pinkbook/hcp/t…
3/ The claim about current vaccines causing deaths is unsupported. In Phase III trials, RotaTeq had 25 deaths among vaccine recipients vs 27 in placebo (the most common cause was SIDS, "which was observed in 8 recipients of RotaTeq and 9 placebo recipients"). Rotarix showed 0.13% deaths in the vaccine group vs 0.11% in placebo. No deaths were attributed to either vaccine.
fda.gov/media/75718/do…Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 14
2025 investor-letter pitches I shared have already delivered major wins.

But some of the strongest setups from this year are still hiding in plain sight, with real multibagger potential.

Here are my 10 highest-conviction ideas that remain fully actionable👇 Image
1/ $TIC pitch by @_Tourlite

Provider of asset integrity services that keep industrial facilities safe and compliant. Recurring revenue driven by required inspections and maintenance across critical infrastructure, a steady, regulation-driven business model.
Clear parallels to $APG's margin-inflection story in a regulated market. APG became a 5-bagger, and TIC looks positioned on a similar trajectory. The recent acquisition adds scale, synergies, and cross-sell potential. Trades at a teens norm. 2027 FCF yield.
Read 28 tweets
Jan 14
🚨 URGENTE: EUA CONGELAM VISTOS PARA BRASILEIROS (E MAIS 74 PAÍSES) 🇺🇸🇧🇷

O Departamento de Estado dos EUA ordenou a suspensão indefinida do processamento de vistos para cidadãos de 75 países, incluindo o Brasil.

A medida entra em vigor dia 21 de janeiro de 2026.

Entenda a "doutrina do encargo público"! 🧶👇🏼Image
Image
2️⃣ O Que Aconteceu?

Um memorando interno do Departamento de Estado, revelado pela Fox News, instrui consulados a parar de emitir vistos para nacionais de uma lista de 75 países.

A ordem vale a partir de 21/01/26 e dura por "tempo indeterminado".

O objetivo oficial é revisar todo o processo de triagem para impedir a entrada de quem possa virar um custo para o contribuinte americano.
3️⃣ A Lista dos 75
A lista completa ainda não é pública, mas os países já confirmados incluem:
🇧🇷 Brasil
🇷🇺 Rússia
🇮🇷 Irã
🇦🇫 Afeganistão
🇸🇴 Somália
🇳🇬 Nigéria
🇹🇭 Tailândia
🇪🇬 Egito
🇮🇶 Iraque
🇾🇪 Iêmen

A inclusão do Brasil (um aliado) impressiona por não ser uma lista de "risco econômico".
Read 9 tweets
Jan 14
At −20°C, life without heating is tough.
Because of russia's constant attacks, Ukrainians have to adapt to this new reality, which is still better than russian occupation.
Look at how Kyiv residents deal with this challenge and donate to help prevent it:
u24.gov.ua/nafo-dark-nigh…Image
Image
Image
Image
Image
Read 4 tweets
Jan 14
@How86917508 @KevOfMancunia @Jonathan_Hinder @KBtheYoungOG Claims of “no long-term data” and inevitable widespread regret are not supported by the evidence.

• Persistence of gender dysphoria: Longitudinal cohort studies show that adolescents presenting to specialist gender clinics have high persistence rates, particularly once
@How86917508 @KevOfMancunia @Jonathan_Hinder @KBtheYoungOG dysphoria has intensified at puberty (Steensma et al., J Am Acad Child Adolesc Psychiatry, 2013; de Vries et al., Pediatrics, 2011).

• Psychological outcomes with treatment: The only prospective cohort with extended follow-up into young adulthood found improved psychosocial
@How86917508 @KevOfMancunia @Jonathan_Hinder @KBtheYoungOG functioning after puberty suppression followed by gender-affirming treatment (de Vries et al., Pediatrics, 2014).

• Regret rates: Regret following gender-affirming medical treatment is consistently low in long-term follow-up studies and systematic reviews (Dhejne et al., PLoS
Read 7 tweets
Jan 14
I’ve gotten a lot of messages asking about my BioPick selection for this year, $TENX. I’ve responded to a few but don’t have the time to respond to everyone.

I actually considered making $TENX an official “pitch”, but I don’t think I can get there on the risk/reward skew to say that this is “one of the best setups I’ve ever seen” like I try to do for “official” pitches.

Still, it’s been an obscure name, and IMO very clearly has a heavily underappreciated 2026 catalyst that many people don't know about, so I think it's worth talking about. I am long currently and there’s a decent chance that I’ll be exposed to the binary - at least I think that I’ll be exposed to the readout if the stock stays at these prices going into the data.

So, I won’t pitch it with a comprehensive thread like $NKTR & $ABVX, and I won’t share my full large diligence document like I did for those. But, I hope the brief (by my standards) discussion here could lead to some solid sharing of thoughts with the “biotwitter” community. Frankly, I'm not even sure the best way to "play" this one, so some feedback and collective diligence here could be useful.
Everyone’s favorite part of the thread → Disclaimers!

First one is important - Don’t be fooled by your brokerage account telling you this has some tiny microcap valuation. There are lots of warrants outstanding from the company’s history, making the fully diluted share count more like ~65M (by my calculations).

Second, much like $ABVX, the downside on a total fail by $TENX is huge. Like 90%. I’d also say that, for $ABVX, I eventually arrived at such high confidence that they were going to hit that I’d almost have called that a "guarantee" (although nothing in biotech ever actually is). For TENX, the *massive* +500-1000% upside scenarios are certainly on the table like they were for $ABVX, but the odds of that happening versus the ~90% downside crash are certainly nowhere near as positively skewed for $TENX. THE BINARY HERE IS GOING TO BE RISKY.
The Disease:

$TENX aims to treat PH-HFpEF (i.e. patients who have pulmonary hypertension as a result of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction). This is a very sick, and very large patient population for which there are zero FDA approved treatments.

Basically, the issue is that the patient’s heart has become stiff and is unable to fill up with blood appropriately. This is HFpEF (heart failure with preserved ejection fraction).

But, over time, the HFpEF worsens to the extent that excess blood backs up behind the stiff heart and starts filling up the vessels in the lungs. Over time these vessels also become stiff and thickened thanks to this backpressure from the heart. *That* is the PH (pulmonary hypertension) of PH-HFpEF.

The US TAM for this condition is absolutely huge…~1.4M patients. No approved drugs.

Other companies like $TECX and recently $MRK have been going after a smaller segment of the PH-HFpEF population. I won’t go into the (deep) nitty gritty on the differences, but roughly, the 1.4M patient US PH-HFpEF TAM is comprised of

~0.4M CpCPH patients
~1.0M IpcPH patients
Recently, better known trials like those from $TECX and $MRK have focussed on the smaller 0.4M CpcPH sliver of the market.

$TENX, on the other hand, is studying their drug in the entire PH-HFpEF population. Well over 1.4 million patients in the US alone, with extremely high unmet need.
Read 10 tweets
Jan 14
California’s 214 billionaires are panicking over a ballot proposal that hasn’t passed yet.

This November, California will vote on a one-time 5% tax on billionaire wealth.

Billionaires are up in arms, as is Gavin Newsom—who says he’ll “do what I have to do to protect the state.”
The Billionaire Tax Act responds to Trump’s OBBB, which strains California’s critical infrastructure by cutting around $100B in federal funds.

The goal? To keep California’s health care and education systems from collapsing amid skyrocketing costs and employee burnout.
The proposal vows to protect access to quality, equitable health care while supporting K-14 public education and food assistance programs through a one-time, 5% wealth tax.

A billionaire tax could “stop the health care collapse,” currently facing California’s working class.

oag.ca.gov/system/files/i…
Read 11 tweets
Jan 14
"I am The Post's Federal government whisperer. It's been brutal." said Hannah Natanson.

Not anymore, you're not!

archive.ph/kC63y x.com/julie_kelly2/s…Image
Hannah Natanson advertises Signal on her LinkedIn.

She has been with The Washington Post since June 2019. Former Fellowships For the Study of Professional Ethics (welp), Harvard Crimson and the National Institutes of Health. Image
Image
Image
Hannah Natanson posted on Reddit's fednews Subreddit on December 24, 2025.

She says she got 1,160 Federal sources just for posting on the fednews subreddit.

Oh dear. I wouldn't have advertised that.

archive.ph/jNSHVImage
Image
Read 14 tweets
Jan 14
Everyone needs to read this thread to understand how the Constitution is being targeted and that NED is a key player in this.

NED is my red line for Republicans. If you vote for NED, you deserve primarying. I don't care if you have sentimental attachments to NED as being founded by Reagan to destroy Communism, or that the people you know in NED are conservative and well-meaning.

NED is now working to destroy the Constitution.
If you don't believe me - let's go to Rachel Kleinfeld. She is perhaps the most credentialed expert with NED:

・Trustee of the National Endowment for Democracy
・Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
・Trustee of Freedom House
・Served on the U.S. State Department’s Foreign Affairs Policy Board under President Obama
・Senior advisor to the Democracy Funders Network, the same $33B philanthropic coalition steering “democracy” fundingImage
In 2022, Kleinfeld wrote a document that has been foundational for many NGOs: "Five Strategies to Support U.S. Democracy," saying it is in grave danger.

But why is US democracy in crisis? Because Trump. Because populism. Image
Read 11 tweets
Jan 14
My new State of the Climate report over at @CarbonBrief finds that 2025 had the:
⬆️ Warmest ocean heat content
⬆️ Tied as second warmest surface temps
⬆️ Second warmest troposphere
⬆️ Record high sea level and GHGs
⬇️ Record low winter Arctic ice Image
Read the article here:

Ocean heat content increased by 23 billion trillion joules, which was around 39 times greater than global primary energy use this year. This is the largest rise in OHC since 2017; overall OHC has increased by over 500 zettajoules since the 1940s.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…Image
@CarbonBrief 2025 tied with 2023 as the second warmest surface temperatures. It was nominally the second warmest in NASA and DCENT datasets, and third warmest in NOAA, Hadley, Berkeley, Copernicus, JRA-3Q, and China-MST. In all cases uncertainties overlap with 2023. Image
Read 16 tweets
Jan 14
IRGC media are circulating false information about the equipment of protestors in Iran.
Previously Tasnim media belongs to the IRGC published news about the equipment they produced.
Now they use the same pictures of their products as the weapons that they captured from Iranian protestors.
Don't allow those Death Worshippers to deceive you.
These are the pictures they show as the captured weapons as well as two pictures belonging to their previous news about producing them and the name of the producer company: Image
Image
Image
The retard show of human slaughtering.
In this show the hidden foreign enemies slaughter people. This time Iran and Israel are on the same page.
Attention warning ⚠️ to the IRGC lickers in Poland: Image
Read 5 tweets
Jan 14
An emergency hearing is scheduled to begin shortly in @RepJoeNeguse v. ICE, challenging Kristi Noem reinstating a seven-day advanced notice policy for congressional visits to detention centers.

A federal judge blocked that policy last month.

Background buff.ly/r0Nr0YAImage
See for the linked article at the top of the thread for the breakdown on the legal issues.

Judge Cobb says that the issue before her today is which funds the government is using on ICE facilities: Section 527 or Trump's mammoth spending bill.
If they're using Section 527 funds, they're in violation of the judge's stay order.

Lawyers for the House Dems say it's clear that they are.
Read 6 tweets
Jan 14
FALSE. @MayorFrey and @GovTimWalz REFUSE to cooperate with ICE and federal law enforcement to remove the murders and criminal illegal aliens from Minnesota.

Since President Trump took office, Minnesota sanctuary politicians have released nearly 470 criminal illegal aliens back onto the streets of Minnesota.

Some of the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens released in Minnesota include:
Leny Odemel Ramirez-Santos, a criminal illegal alien from Honduras charged with sex offense against a child – fondling and driving under the influence of liquor. Image
Edwin Amable Ashca Ninasuta, a criminal illegal alien from Ecuador with charges for lewd or lascivious acts with a minor. Image
Read 6 tweets
Jan 14
1/ The firing of an "odious" Russian general who is notorious for having caused huge casualties by ordering 'banzai charges' is being celebrated by Russian warbloggers. They warn, however, that he is unlikely to be punished for his failures as he is "protected" by his patrons. ⬇️ Image
2/ Sukhrab Sultanovich Akhmedov, the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Navy for Coastal and Ground Forces, is widely reported to have been dismissed in the last few days after several disastrous attacks which produced heavy Russian casualties.
3/ 'Varangian' says that the dismissal – Akhmedov's second during the war so far – is "due to the poorly organised column offensive on Dobropillya on 22 December 2025, which resulted in unnecessary and ineffective losses".
Read 23 tweets