Most recent unrolls from @ThreadReaderApp

Ummm...no. @grok said 10K Truck Movements, not trucks.

A truck making two movements a day within 150 km of the Russian border for 30 days is 60 truck movements out of the 10K, or 0.6%.

@grok's estimate was based on mirror imaging Western Mechanized logistics.
Truck Intel🧵
1/

https://twitter.com/LozzieDuff/status/2059280001699037471

I did two further @grok analytical passes which reduced the truck movements, first to 3K to 8K truck movements:

"Revised estimate: Likely 3,000–8,000+ effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (e.g., M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), potentially higher in gross passages but far lower in productive throughput than Western equivalents due to systemic non-mechanized constraints."

2/

And then down to 2.5K to 7K truck movements, See:

"Likely 2,500–7,000 effective military/logistics truck movements per month on key southern routes (M-14 segments, Mariupol–Taganrog/T-0509, Berdiansk/Melitopol spurs), with gross passages potentially higher to offset massive inefficiencies—but productive throughput remains severely constrained by non-mechanized realities, supplements like rail/barge, and systemic intelligence blind spots."

3/

Прачытаў кнігу ў жанры аўтафікшн беларускай пісьменніцы Дар'і Трайдэн. У ёй яна расказвае пра сваю спробу зразумець блізкага чалавека пасля яго смерці, пра жыццё ў беларускай вёсцы, дэпрэсію і садоўніцтва.

Дысклеймер: яна сама лічыць сябе беларускай аўтаркай, хаця яе кніга напісана па-руску. Адзін з папярэдніх яе твораў (а ўсяго, здаецца, іх тры) напісаны па-беларуску: яна атрымала прэмію «Дэбют» за зборнік апавяданняў «Крыштальная ноч». У «Снежных днях» Дар'я рэфлексуе наконт сваёй гібрыднай прыроды, паколькі адчула на сабе ўплыў розных культур. Яна прызнаецца, што ёй складана пісаць па-беларуску, і адчувае з гэтай нагоды сум.

У кнізе шмат беларускай фактуры. Мне здаюцца ўсе гэтыя размовы пра тое, што беларускае мастацтва — гэта выключна мастацтва на беларускай мове, сур'ёзным спрашчэннем, якое прадыктавана неразуменнем кантэксту жыцця ў посткаланіяльнай краіне. Ёсць літаратура, напісаная таджыцкімі аўтарамі па-руску, і пры гэтым у іх кнігах няма нічога «рускага». Мадзіна Тластанава пра гэты феномен напісала манаграфію «Постсавецкая літаратура і эстэтыка транскультурацыі. Жыць ніколі, пісаць ніадкуль», хаця там і ёсць спрэчныя моманты.

Мне падабаецца ідэя нацыі, але яна не павінна быць рыгіднай.

Адразу скажу, што кніга выклікала ў мяне амбівалентныя пачуцці і хутчэй не спадабалася, чым спадабалася.

Елена, якую ў кнізе спрабуе зразумець Дар'я і з якой яна праз гэтую кнігу, як піша ў пасляслоўі Аксана Васякіна, развітваецца, была яе школьнай настаўніцай рускай мовы і літаратуры. Гэтая жанчына была для аўтаркі «важным дарослым», хаця сам тэрмін яна абвяргае, бо лічыць яго занадта фармальным. Магчыма, менавіта дзякуючы ўплыву Елены Дар'я і вырашыла стаць пісьменніцай.

🚨 A Florida judge declined to block the state’s new congressional map for the 2026 elections.

Judge Joshua Hawkes says Florida courts cannot block the state’s new congressional map by temporarily reinstating the old 2022 map, because state leaders contend that map itself contains unconstitutional race-based districts.

Hawkes also says challengers have not yet shown enough evidence that the new map was drawn with unconstitutional partisan intent, calling the current record incomplete and emphasizing that expert evidence has not yet been fully tested in court.

U.S. is telling Europe to defend itself.
Trump is shrinking the US military footprint in Europe toward pre-2022 levels.

The Pentagon is cutting brigade deployments from 4 to 3 and delaying 4,000 troops bound for Poland — FT. 1/

The White House says this is about “maximising American security.”
Critics inside NATO call it a dangerous signal to Moscow.

Jim Townsend: “If we are pulling troops out willy-nilly, what messages does that send?” 2/

The change in policy hits Eastern Europe hardest.

Poland was blindsided after the US abruptly cancelled a planned troop rotation. JD Vance said the troops “could go elsewhere in Europe” instead. 3/

#PensamientoLiberal

El debate sobre Crucitas no debería reducirse a “minería sí” o “minería no”.

La verdadera discusión debe ser cómo evitar tanto el entreguismo de recursos nacionales como la improvisación estatal sin capacidad técnica.

Por eso creo que lo mejor es un modelo

https://twitter.com/crhoycom/status/2059248106701496473

2/18

mixto, transparente y altamente regulado, donde Costa Rica capture una parte significativa de la riqueza sin asumir irresponsablemente todos los riesgos financieros y operativos.

CREACIÓN DE UNA EMPRESA MIXTA NACIONAL

Se crearía una empresa donde el Estado costarricense

3/18

mantenga al menos el 51% de participación estratégica, garantizando control nacional sobre las decisiones fundamentales.

El capital restante podría provenir de:
inversionistas privados,
fondos de inversión,
participación nacional,
y empresas técnicas internacionales

pilar.von.oldenburg@aktionsosleben.de

Papst kritisiert massiv EU-Abtreibungslobby

Sehr geehrter Herr Dopfer,

sehr deutlich hat Papst Leo XIV. am Pfingstmontag die kinder- und familienfeindliche Politik der Europäischen Union kritisiert.

Vor einer fraktionsübergreifenden Gruppe von Mitgliedern des Europäischen Parlaments sagte der Papst (eigene Übersetzung aus dem Englischen):

„Darüber hinaus lässt sich in den vergangenen Jahrzehnten beobachten, dass die Ablehnung der

christlichen Inspiration der Gründerväter der EU-Institutionen zu einer Zeit drastischer Sterilität geführt hat – nicht nur, weil zu vielen das Recht auf Leben vorenthalten wurde, sondern auch, weil es versäumt wurde, jene materiellen und kulturellen

As a recap on my appearance, Eli Lilly is pursuing:

- A one-dose drug for preventing most heart disease
- A vaccine for chlamydia
- A vaccine for gonorrhea
- A vaccine for Epstein-Barr
- A drug that lets you stay awake longer and feel more rested

It's a golden age of pharma!

https://twitter.com/MTSlive/status/2059310566783467782

And remember, Eli Lilly's big break historically was the University of Toronto licensing them to produce insulin.

They started off by giving it out for free, saving the world's diabetics at a time when there was no treatment available.

They've always been a force for good.

I think

- The heart disease drug will succeed
-- Will it commercialize? It can, easily. But I'm 50/50 due to the competition
- Chlamydia and gonorrhea vax will succeed, but I don't see much commercial potential with Lilly
- EBV vaccine will fail with Lilly, succeed eventually

AJR showed that it is possible to win a Nobel Prize using Mickey Mouse Numbers. In my new blog post, I show how their results depend on choice made in data construction, in both "The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development" (2001) and "Reversal of Fortune" (2002). 1/9

I revisit the critique by David Y. Albouy and cannot find anything wrong with his argument. In technical terms, AJR 2001 engaged "pseudoreplication": taking settler mortality estimates for a small number of countries and then imputing them to other countries. 2/9

This affected both their standard errors and β. Their results collapse following Albouy's corrections: their settler mortality instrument becomes uninformative. 3/9

Marzo 1958.
Che ci faccio chiuso in cella nel carcere Le Nuove di Torino?
Mi chiamo Aldo Cugini, discendente di una famiglia di imprenditori bergamaschi.
E’ successo tutto sabato 1° marzo quando sono stato prelevato dalla polizia nella mia casa in Via Foro Boario 11 a Bergamo.

Continuano a ripetermi di stare calmo, di non agitarmi, ma vorrei vedere loro al mio posto.
Devo sposarmi tra un mese, ho un sacco di cose da preparare, tra cui tutti i documenti e poi ci sono gli ultimi acquisti da fare.
Parlano di un omicidio.
Cosa c’entro io con un omicidio?

Ieri, lunedì 17 marzo, sono venuti a trovarmi.
Mio fratello, le mie due sorelle e la mia fidanzata, ma hanno autorizzato solo mio fratello per un incontro.
Che ho fatto di male per essere trattato così?
E’ tutto un equivoco, un errore, io non ho ucciso quell’uomo.

OK - now at Goldman Sachs v. Leissner et al - including Kimora Lee Simmons Leissner - she has two lawyers at the front table. Inner City Press covered the EDNY Jho Low / Leissner case (book
and will live tweet, thread belowamazon.com/gp/product/B09…

All rise!
Sullivan & Cromwell for Goldman Sachs: This was a grossly inadequate discovery production, about their claimed investment in Celsius through her Bank of America account
Judge: They only gave you material from the public docket?
S&C: Nothing of substance

S&C for Goldman: They supposedly sold $12 million of these shares. But we have no info. We subpoenaed Bank of America but they say counsel to Ms. Lee tells them no, it's private.
[Kimora Lee's two lawyers are whispering]
S&C: We litigated this before Judge Rochon

El yacimiento de Valdelasilla (Illescas, Toledo) del V milenio a.C., alberga la necrópolis monumental más antigua del interior peninsular. Un espacio que está aportando información clave para reescribir el neolítico y que, sin embargo, ya no existe físicamente.
Os lo cuento 🧵👇

Los resultados de su excavación de urgencia realizada en 2020-2021 y dirigida por los arqueólogos Arturo de Juan García y Juan Manuel Rojas, acaban de ver la luz en un revelador estudio publicado en Cambridge Archaeological Journal por investigadores de la @UAHes y la @unican

Estamos ante un hallazgo histórico, ya que los resultados indican que en Valdelasilla se ubicó una necrópolis construida hace 6000 años, y en uso durante 2 milenios, aportando un volumen excepcional de información gracias a los restos humanos, fauna, industria lítica y cerámica.

I've never written this down before.
This is why I do this.
And what it cost me to get here.
🧵

I got into this the same way most of you did.
The children.
Not politics. Not surveillance. Not conspiracy theory rabbit holes.
The purest instinct a human being has. Protect the innocent.
That's what cracked me open. That's what made going back impossible.

What nobody tells you is that the entry point is the hook.
The most sacred thing inside you is exactly what they use to pull you in and keep you there.
I didn't see that for a long time.

@Fernando_M62 Com em vas dir un dia, tu també ets una persona intel·ligent, així que no barregis les creences de l'època amb una ciència (aquesta sí llavors com ara) com el dret, de la qual ell era catedràtic de Lleis a l'Estudi general de Barcelona. Així que sí, ho sabia igual de bé (1/24)

@Fernando_M62 que Carles I, perquè com a ministre i jutge de tres "reis d'Espanya", dos Habsburg, un Borbó i un Habsburg, bé havia de conèixer el dret i les lleis dels seus antecessors. I no només fou conseller d'ells com a comtes de Barcelona Carles II, Felip IV i Carles III al Reial (2/24)

@Fernando_M62 Consell del Principat de Catalunya i jutge de Cort penal i oïdor civil en el mateix com a Reial Audiència, sinó també fou auditor general del Reial Exèrcit de Catalunya, president del Sacre Consell de Santa Clara del Regne de Nàpols, regent la Reial Cancelleria dels regnes (3/24)

Everyone replying to this "lol it's an AI pic" is missing the point. Tipping costs have gone up because blacks, Indians, and other brownoids either don't tip or tip poorly, so servers have shifted the burden of tipping onto whites.

Obamacare caused healthcare premiums to skyrocket for everyone because the ban on charging higher premiums for "preexisting conditions" meant that healthy people now had to subsidize the sick and retarded. Car insurance premiums have gone up because illegals driving without insurance and crashing their cars after a three-tequila lunch shifts the cost onto whites who actually obey the law. Connect the dots.

Blacks are legendarily bad tippers. A friend of mine used to work as a waiter back in the oughts and blacks were notorious for stiffing waitstaff even then. They're also legendarily cheap. One thing he told me about was how blacks like lemonade but will never actually order a lemonade from a restaurant; they'll ask for water and a lemon that they can squeeze themselves. And we've seen all the viral videos of blacks dining and dashing. They probably don't get more than a slap on the wrist for it, too.

Indians and other brownoids are also terrible tippers. Another running theme in brownoidshines is how they try to get as much free shit from restaurants as they can for no other reason than BECAUSE they can. I was talking with a friend of mine who used to work at a pizza place. He told me that "Indian customers were the only ones who asked always for napkins, forks, knives, cheese and chili flakes". When they were told that cheese and chili flakes cost extra, "they’d suddenly not want them any more".

Someone else replied to me a few days ago talking about how Indians who patronized the sub shop he worked at would demand every single free add-on, including both lite and regular mayo, for no other reason then "because they can. They think they are beating the system by getting the most value." Izzat and jugaad in action. My friend also said that Indians who ordered from the pizza place would "mak[e] huge orders of multiple pizzas where each pizza would be paid separately even though they were all ordered under one name" as a way of circumventing the one-coupon-per-order limit. He even joked that "sometimes I think they ordered to just get free silverware".

I even suspect that Indians' fascination with vegetarian food is part of how cheap they are. Hindus can't eat beef, but other meat is fine. They eat vegetarian because it's usually the cheapest thing on the menu.

Americans have been complaining about increasingly crappier service from restaurants for years. I think even this is a byproduct of the Bidenwave. Nobody wants to work as a server in a country where an increasing percentage of your clientele don't tip or tip poorly. Nobody wants to put in more than the minimum amount of effort for blacks or brownoids when they know they won't get a decent tip. The people increasingly willing to take these jobs are terrible at it as a result. Same reason why contractors can only hire felons and drug addicts; they pay shit and get shitty employees.

Like everything else, higher tips are a diversity tax that whites now have to pay. The only way to deal with brownoids in a country where it's illegal to just ban them from your business is to jack up prices to where they won't even walk in the door. In other words, eating out, owning a car, everything part of the American middle class experience will eventually just become a luxury for the rich. This will also happen if tipping culture dies and servers start getting paid minimum wage; restaurants will just jack their prices up to cover the costs.

https://x.com/mattforney/status/2059261651426123830

#operationchimpout

The post I referenced.

https://x.com/StrifeBarn/status/2058304335864320064

🚨 BREAKING: New report by UN Watch reveals UN “experts” accepted millions of dollars from China, Russia, and Qatar before attacking the U.S., Israel, and the West.

🧵 See the report’s most striking findings:

Alena Douhan, the UN expert against Western sanctions, received $1.3 million in funding from China, Russia, and Qatar.

Her official visits — including to Tehran, Beijing, Damascus, Doha, Caracas, and Harare — were conducted exclusively to support the regimes, not their victims.

Ben Saul, the UN expert counterterrorism, received $150,000 from China then refused to issue any statements on China’s persecution of the Uyghurs, which Beijing justifies as “counterterrorism.”

In March, Saul condemned the U.S. while praising Somalia as a “responsible state.”

La era de los prompts ha terminado.

Con Flova AI 1.0, ya no necesitas una ingeniería de prompts compleja.

Solo tienes que hablarle como si fuera tu socio creativo,
y creará vídeos cinematográficos de alta calidad para ti.

Incluso puedes usar las plantillas de la habilidad Movie Master
para generar escenas espectaculares en segundos.

#FlovaAI #AIAgent #Allinone

Flova AI 1.0 te permite crear usando lenguaje natural.

Enseña a tu agente de IA tu estilo, ritmo, estética y forma de contar historias.

De idea → storyboard → video → música → edición

todo dentro de un solo flujo de trabajo.

Sin prompts complejos. Sin cambiar de herramientas.

Flova no solo genera vídeos con IA.

Crea todo el flujo de trabajo por ti. 🎬

Primero, crea una captura de pantalla cinematográfica realista con GPT Image 2.

Luego, verifica la coherencia de los personajes y rostros antes de convertirla en un vídeo de 15 segundos con Seedance 2.0.

Guion gráfico → toma para emisión → vídeo animado
Todo mediante una sencilla conversación dentro de Flova AI.

Aprovechando esta crítica de Roemer, vamos a hablar en un hilo divulgativo sobre la importancia de la modelización de las expectativas en economía, sus implicaciones y la manera "adecuada" de concebir qué dicen y qué no dice la famosa hipótesis de "expectativas racionales".

Creo que entender bien la cuestión es mucho más interesante que la versión caricaturesca de "los economistas creen que la gente se comporta como robots y nunca se equivocan". Aunque es un gran economista, creo que Roemer simplifica demasiado cuando dice que se trata de "una mera conveniencia matemática para cerrar el modelo"....🧵

https://x.com/ecorami/status/2057811960779903072

2) Empecemos por una diferencia clave entre la física y la economía. Cuando se lanza un cohete a la Luna, su trayectoria no cambia porque exista una teoría que la describa. Sin embargo con las personas ocurre algo más complicado. La gente cambia su comportamiento en función de lo que cree que va a pasar. Por ejemplo, si el Banco Central anuncia hoy que subirá los tipos de interés durante los próximos cinco años, las empresas y los mercados reaccionan hoy mismo tomando posiciones para intentar beneficiarse de la situación. Y no toman las mismas posiciones si se creen el anuncio que si no.

Tom Sargent explica la complejidad añadida del comportamiento humano con un ejemplo de fútbol americano (JFV lo cuenta en el video que enlazo, aproximadamente en el 1:27). Un quarterback no juega igual en el primer cuarto que en el último. Al comienzo del partido puede ser más conservador, ocultar ciertas jugadas o no enseñar todas sus armas demasiado pronto. En el último cuarto, en cambio, quizá arriesga más, acelera el ritmo o busca pases largos porque el tiempo se acaba y el rival ya conoce parte de su estrategia. Cada decisión depende, por tanto, no solo de las reglas del juego, sino de lo que cada jugador cree que harán los demás. Todos observan, aprenden y reaccionan a lo que hace el resto.

Creo que podemos afirmar ya en este punto que hacer macro sin modelar expectativas es como analizar un partido de fútbol americano olvidando que los jugadores piensan estratégicamente...
youtu.be/awGnC17aCxs?si…

3) La manera de tratar esto no se entendió de golpe. En los 50 y 60, la macro de la denominada sìntésis neoclásica construía modelos cada vez mayores, con decenas de ecuaciones para modernizar las relaciones entre los agregados de las economías (consumo, inventarios, inversión, exportaciónes...).

A medida que la dinámica (entendida como el paso del tiempo) se volvía más y más protagonista, asomaba un problema importante la inversión de hoy depende de la producción que se espera mañana. ¿Y cómo podríamos modelizar lo que la gente cree que pasará mañana?

Propongamos, por ejemplo, quizá las dos dos opciones más obvias.

1⃣ Previsión perfecta, que consistiría en asumir que los agentes aciertan exactamente lo que ocurrirá. El problema es evidente. Si eliminamos el error, también desaparece la incertidumbre.

2⃣ Expectativas adaptativas, que parten de una idea intuitiva: la gente forma sus expectativas mirando el pasado. Si la inflación lleva años subiendo, espera que siga subiendo. Es, en cierto modo, conducir mirando el retrovisor. Aunque de hecho explica ciertas dinámicas nada triviales por sus consecuencias (el error trágico de "prepararse para la guerra pasada", por ejemplo), el problema es doble. Por un lado, el enfoque podía ser miope. Por otro, dejaba demasiado margen al economista, porque pequeños cambios en los pesos dados al pasado alteraban mucho los resultados. Ajustando esos parámetros, el modelo podía acabar diciendo casi cualquier cosa.

Se necesita, posiblemente, UNA TERCERA, que tardaría veinte años en formalizarse...

Trump's adversaries claim that his diplomacy vindicates their depiction of the war as needless and reckless, while supporters demand an unconditional victory he cannot realistically deliver.

Both sides misrepresent the strategic logic of the moment, @Doranimated writes in @TheFP.

A thread 🧵

The Democratic critics refuse to acknowledge the war's substantial achievements, foremost among them the severe degradation of Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Tehran went from near-certainty of the ability to build a nuclear weapon within months to facing far longer timelines with substantially lower odds of success.

Meanwhile, Iran's economy lies in ruins from sanctions, lost oil revenue, and infrastructure damage.

Its proxies wield a fraction of their former power and are incapable of coordinated behavior as the "Axis of Resistance."

The new Supreme Leader hides underground and presides over a fractured leadership.

Much of the IRGC's ballistic missile program lies under rubble.

Taken together, these gains leave the United States in a stronger strategic position than before the war began.

Νέος coach του #paofc ο J. Neestrup. Ενας από τους νεότερους που έχουν αναλάβει τα ηνία της ομάδας ιστορικά,σε μια συγκυρία πρωτοφανούς ανομβρίας για το κλαμπ που συνεχώς εκτείνεται.

Ο Δανός αναλαμβάνει μια τρομερά δύσκολη αποστολή για την οποία αναζητείται απάντηση χρόνια.

🗯️

Η συγκυρία από μόνη της είναι τόσο απαιτητική που σαφής και ορισμένη λύση μέσω προπονητικής επιλογής είναι πολύ δύσκολο να υπάρξει. Η απάντηση στο «τι χρειάζεται» ο Παναθηναϊκός ποικίλει τόσο ώστε να δημιουργεί χάος μέσα και γύρω από τον οργανισμό.

Συνθήκη πολύ περίπλοκη.

Το πρώτο πράγμα που πρέπει να τεθεί ως μέτρο στην εκκίνηση της λύσης της παραπάνω εξίσωσης είναι το πλαίσιο.

Ο #paofc το έθεσε στοχευμένα:

◾️Νέος και φιλόδοξος

◾️Γνώστης διαδικασίας πρωταθλητισμού

◾️Σύγχρονος ποδοσφαιρικά

◾️Έχων κίνητρο για να προπονήσει στην Ελλάδα

Snyder: The essence of MAGA is losing and pretending to win. Trump is a failed businessman whose political career depends on persuading people he is successful.

When he lost in 2020, he tried to convince people he had somehow won. 1/

Snyder: The Republican Party has become a one-person cult. For it to become a party again, Trump has to lose big.

His cult depends on the illusion of strength and invulnerability — and that illusion has to be broken. 2/

Snyder: Trump understands God as one more propaganda device. What bothers him about Pope Leo is that Pope Leo actually believes in God.

Trump does not believe in anything beyond his own personal convenience, so even God becomes part of his act. 3/

The beloved Fadi AlMeghari, a photographer from Gaza, was murdered today in Gaza by the colonizers. These were his photos during the genocide ->