Johannes 2,12-3,4
Der Tempel – Haus Gottes oder Kaufhaus? • Den Tempel aufbauen in drei Tagen? • Jesus spricht mit Nikodemus über die geistliche Wiedergeburttwr360.org/programs/view/…
„Durch die Bibel“ ist ein weltweites Bibelprogramm in über 100 Sprachen und Dialekten. Unsere Mission ist einfach und sie ist dieselbe, die Dr. McGee für sich selbst annahm: Das ganze Wort Gottes der ganzen Welt zu verkündigen.
For decades, Brazil’s unreasonable acts, policies, and practices have harmed U.S. commerce, including by unfairly advantaging Brazil’s producers over their American competitors and by restricting access to one of the world’s top export markets. For example:
Illegal Deforestation: Brazil’s deforestation practices make it more difficult for the U.S. logging industry to compete fairly in global markets. A staggering 91% of deforestation in the Amazon was illegal harvesting between 2023 and 2024. Illegally sourced timber products contribute to distorted global prices, resulting in the devaluation of U.S. wood products, with illegally sourced timber estimated to reduce legally sourced timber prices by 7% to 16%.
There is also evidence that some sub-central levels of Brazil’s government are taking steps to eliminate or roll back tax and other public- and private-sector incentives designed to discourage deforestation.
Read the below 🧵 for more non-reciprocal, pervasive trade practices.
Digital Trade: Brazilian courts have issued secret orders directing U.S. technology companies, including X, Meta, and Google, to remove certain political content, suspend accounts belonging to U.S. residents, and prohibit the platforms from disclosing these orders to profile owners.
To enforce compliance, Brazilian courts have also subjected U.S. technology companies to daily non-compliance fines or required them to cease operations in Brazil.
Unfair, Preferential Tariffs: Brazil provides preferential treatment on over a thousand tariff lines for Mexico and hundreds of tariff lines for India at tariff rates between 10 and 100 percent lower than the rate that applies to U.S. exports in those same sectors.
Alta autoridade do governo americano: "Certos tipos de mercadorias não serão taxados. Alguns exemplos são itens que não produzimos ou que não são originários dos Estados Unidos - produtos cuja ausência poderia, de outra forma, perturbar as cadeias de suprimentos ou a economia. Trata-se de produtos como laranjas e suco de laranja, certos produtos energéticos e determinadas peças e componentes aeroespaciais."
Alta autoridade do governo americano: "Já faz bem mais de um ano que tentamos negociar com o governo brasileiro a eliminação dessas práticas. Apresentamos diversas ofertas e propostas ao governo brasileiro sobre medidas que poderiam ser adotadas para eliminar ou mitigar essas várias questões, mas não houve uma resposta efetiva. Mas eu diria que, nas últimas seis semanas, a postura das autoridades brasileirsa tem se mostrado um pouco mais construtiva. Tivemos algumas reuniões muito boas com eles. E esperamos continuar trabalhando com os brasileiros para ver se conseguimos eliminar essas práticas."
I am getting really bullish on the big three cloud businesses $AMZN $MSFT and $GOOG.
1. Software is going to become 99% cheaper to make. 2. Thus, there will be way more software. More niche software for ever more specific uses. 3. And thus, there will be way more software companies / companies that built their own in house software. 4. Software companies are going to be smaller than before. 5. Thus, they won't ever have the scale to launch their own in house, global cloud hardware. 6. Because they are smaller. they will have less negotiating leverage with the giant cloud providers. 7. They will also be more sticky, since small companies have a relatively higher switching cost. 8. Companies are going to prioritize not giving away their work flows and unique data to the AI model companies. The giant cloud companies can operate as a sort of firewall for them, once they develop the process/technology ($MSFT's CEO is talking about this already).
The key bear argument is the same one I've thought for 2019:
This business could become far more competitive. It doesn't exactly make sense that this should be a hardcore oligopoly. Why can't another few great ones sprout up over 10 years, exactly? And if they do, that will be a terrrible headwind to margins.
And in case it's not clear, I've been wrong since 2019...
Dear fellas, while you're screaming at coud in the death pit over Fedorov and drawing your cardboard to support Fedorov on Maidan 3.0 tomorrow (which I will participate in, because I love him too) - here are a few things to know before another rhetorical apocalypse.
🧵
1. THE LAW. (IS BORING)
Article 115 of the Constitution of Ukraine. Short version:
— The PM's resignation legally kills the ENTIRE cabinet. Every minister. Simultaneously.
— There is no "replace only the PM" button. Never was.
— The outgoing cabinet keeps governing in acting mode until the new one is voted in. No vacuum.
Everyone dies. Everyone has ~98.5% chance to respawn in some position and ~25.7% chance to respawn in the same chair with a stamina boost (numbers scientifically vibed, mechanics 100% real — receipts at the end).
So no, nobody "fired Fedorov."
The Constitution fired everybody.
2. THE CONFLICT. ALLEGEDLY.
The Fedorov–Syrskyi CONFLICT is real. Allegedly.
The Economist reports (multiple anonymous sources; officially unconfirmed — both men publicly deny a personal conflict)
HOWEVER! ☝️🤓
(This is why I write this thread in the first place)
"Dismissed over the conflict" only works as a cause if six months ago nobody could predict him doing Fedorov things to the old system. Everybody could. The conflict isn't a plot twist. It's the job description. Everyone knew EXACTLY what they were installing in January. Fedorov's entire brand is squeezing the guts out of every institution he touches — that's WHY he got the job.
If the goal were removing ONE minister, a point dismissal by a single Rada vote was always available — exactly how Reznikov went in 2023. Nuking the entire government to disguise one firing would be the least efficient conspiracy in recorded history.
The man was reportedly offered the PM chair itself. Declined. You don't purge people by promoting them.
SO
Please, at least stop representing this as Whoever-vs-Fedorov and "The Death of All Hopes." It was an unavoidable staff swap. Fedorov is NOT the reason — he's a side effect.
The only people who genuinely need the "Ukraine's government is collapsing" story live in a country that hasn't changed management since 1999.
🎾 🇦🇷 Juan Manuel Cerúndolo vs 🇷🇸 Miomir Kecmanovic
#SwissOpenGstaad
Juan Manuel Cerúndolo defiende la final alcanzada aquí y estas condiciones de arcilla con altitud favorecen muchísimo su tenis. Es un jugador zurdo, muy constante desde el fondo y tremendamente incómodo cuando tiene tiempo para construir los puntos.
Kecmanovic sufrió muchísimo en primera ronda ante un jugador situado alrededor del Top 300. Necesitó tres sets, perdió tres veces el servicio y concedió nueve bolas de break. Además, el H2H es 1-0 para Cerúndolo en arcilla y fue en Córdoba, bajo unas condiciones de altitud similares.
It’s his decision to make and he has made it. But for change to take place at this moment, it needs to be for the better. Long range and mid range drone strikes in large numbers had better continue. Procurement had better continue to improve. If his new guy is a great . . . /1
. . . man-manager and can sort out the conscription and improve the conditions for those serving to make it an attractant for those that are not, super. But if improvements start to falter, attrition rates go up and busification doesn’t disappear entirely, then . . ./2
. . . the change will be seen as one of the worst decisions of the President’s entire career. At a time like this, when 🇷🇺 position in this war is diminishing in every category, and the DefMin was responsible for several of the improvements, any change had better be for . . ./3
إذا كنت تستخدم الواقي الذكري لمدة عام على الأقل فمن المفترض أن تكون على دراية بهذه الأمور السبعة
1.لا تعتذر..
1- لا تتجاهل تاريخ انتهاء الصلاحية:
قد يبدو الواقي الذكري سليمًا من الخارج، لكن بعد انتهاء صلاحيته تضعف جودته ويزداد احتمال تمزقه أثناء الاستخدام. لذلك، احرص دائمًا على التحقق من تاريخ الصلاحية قبل استعماله، فالكثير من الأشخاص يغفلون عن هذه الخطوة البسيطة والمهمة.
2- ليست كل المزلقات آمنة للاستخدام:
استخدام منتجات زيتية مثل الفازلين مع الواقي الذكري المصنوع من اللاتكس قد يؤدي إلى إضعافه، مما يزيد من احتمالية تمزقه أثناء الاستخدام. لذلك يُفضّل استخدام مزلقات مائية أو سيليكونية إذا كانت متوافقة مع تعليمات الشركة المصنعة.
17 coisas que você pode fazer ao invés de ficar no celular:
Vamos começar.
1. Escreva uma carta para você daqui 5 anos
1. Escreva uma carta para você daqui 5 anos
Eu fiz isso esse ano. Peguei uma folha, sentei na mesa e escrevi uma carta pra mim mesmo. Não um diário, não um desabafo momentâneo, mas uma conversa com meu “eu” do futuro. Como eu quero estar? O que quero ter vencido? Que erros não quero repetir?
Coloquei num envelope e escrevi: “Abrir em 2030”. Pode ser que eu abra e ache tudo meio ridículo. Pode ser que eu abra e sinta orgulho. Ou talvez eu abra e descubra que nada saiu como eu planejei. E tudo bem, porque o exercício não é prever o futuro, é registrar o presente.
Escrever a carta é mais incrível do que parece. Quando você organiza as palavras, você organiza os pensamentos. E o silêncio da escrita é muito diferente da confusão que a tela oferece.
2. Aprenda a fazer fogo com pedras ou madeira
Eu sei, parece coisa de filme de sobrevivência. Mas já tentou? É difícil pra caramba. Você soa, se irrita, acha que nunca vai sair nada.
Mas quando uma faísca aparece, o coração dispara. De repente, aquele fogo parece mágico.
A gente esqueceu que o básico pode ser fascinante. Você não precisa acampar na Amazônia pra viver isso. Dá pra tentar no quintal, num sítio, até em um parque (com cuidado, claro). Não é pelo fogo em si — é pelo processo.
Você percebe que criar algo com as próprias mãos dá um tipo de satisfação que nenhuma curtida na internet dá. É lento, exige foco, exige errar. E quando finalmente pega, você se sente… vivo.
Eu nunca esqueci da primeira vez que consegui. Era um fogo minúsculo, mas parecia que eu tinha inventado a eletricidade.
החליפו לנו בעבודה סוכן מתפעל. קיבלתי שעה וחצי של ייעוץ פרטני והמלצות סבירות ביותר, אבל הן לא התקרבו לכמות הידע, הסבלנות והירידה לפרטים שקלוד פייבל הרעיף עליי במשך שעות, וימים.
עכשיו שיש לי בסיס להשוואה, אני תוהה אם יישארו בכלל יועצים (משכנתא, פיננסים, משפטיים). סוכן אנושי הוא אמנם היחיד שרשאי לבצע בשמי פעולות, אבל הזמן שלו מוגבל. עם קלוד אני שואל את אותה שאלה 3 פעמים ולא נמאס לו להסביר. אני יכול לבקש סימולציה והיא תופיע בגרף. אני יכול לחזור לשיחה מתי שאני רוצה - היא מתומללת ואפשר לחפש בה. אני יכול לשתף אותו בהכל, וגם לדחות המלצות שלו בלי שייעלב. והכי חשוב - הוא נייטרלי (לפחות לבינתיים), ולא ידחוף לי שום פוליסה כי הוא מרוויח עליה.
אני רואה שלושה מוצרים.
סקילים של ייעוץ משכנתא או פיננסיים שהפרומפט שלהם פתוח והם יוצרו ספציפית לדמות יועץ ישראלי, שמכיר את החוקים המקומיים ויודע מה לשאול/לבקש.
אפשרות להתייעץ עם פאנל של מודלי שפה, לתקף את ההמלצות בין כמה מודלים, אפילו למחוק חלקים מהשיחה כדי לוודא שה-LLM חוזר על אותן מסקנות.
אפשרות לשלוח את הפלט הסופי לסוכן אנושי, שיחתום שההמלצות האלו לא תלושות (קשה לי להאמין), ולא יסכנו אותי.
עד שזה יקרה, אני משתף כמה מההמלצות שלו שלא הכרתי ו/או הותירו בי רושם. אני לא יועץ ולא סוכן, קחו את הדברים האלה לפייבל שלכם:
מוטבים הם מנגנון עוקף-מוות בירוקרטי. משולם למשפחה תוך שבועות, בלי צו ירושה, בלי בית משפט, בלי סכסוכי עזבון. בלעדיהם, גם הנכס הכי נזיל שלך קופא לחודשים בזמן שהמשפחה הכי זקוקה לו.
שני ברוקרים, שני קסטודיאנס, שני משטרי מס. את הכסף העודף חלק בין ברוקר אמריקאי (IBKR למשל) לישראלי (מיטב למשל). החלוקה נותנת לך שתי מדינות, שני רגולטורים, שני מטבעות תפעוליים, אבל שני חישובי מס שונים. אחד ממוסה על הרווח הריאלי מול שער הדולר, השני מול מדד המחירים. זה נותן גמישות בפרישה למשוך מיסויית מהצינור הזול יותר בכל פעם.
Israel the Jewish State wrote, "Stunning Figure: U.S. security aid to Israel, which stands at $3.3 billion a year, is often viewed as one-way. In practice, however, it is one of the most profitable investments for the American economy. 1)
According to a report by journalist Ariel Kahana, conservative calculations show that the budget transferred to Israel generates at least $15 billion for the U.S. economy.
2)
Broader and more generous estimates claim that the U.S. earns around $48 billion a year from its aid to Israel.
Beyond the direct financial return, Israel serves as the most effective showcase for the American weapons industry.
3)
3. Go to Google Maps and search for the company within the map area of your county only. If it's out of a house, or a very small office space, you have a hit. Now, you're going to find out about the company
4. (Be sure to screenshot everything as well as copy links to a doc)
5. Search engine fun - capture every URL into your doc which comes up and collect info. There will be corporate sites, obsolete sites which direct to a new company, etc. Collect that info and research those offshoots
6. There will be social media, news puff pieces, links. Get em
To będzie długa analiza w odcinkach. Tytuł „Jak skutecznie przegrać wybory - kubeł zimniej wody”
Obserwuję nastroje na X od dłuższego czasu.
Opcja lewicowa w elektoracie Tuska, bije w dzwony - Prawa Człowieka, rozliczenia - nie ma?
Czy Tusk ma rozliczać, czy sądy?
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Jaką demokrację widzicie - rządy silnej ręki? Czy może próbujecie odbić elektorat lewicowy z KO? W mojej ocenie to drugie.
Co Wam daje przesunięcie elektoratu z lewej do bardziej lewej?
Arytmetyka mówi - nic to nie daje. Obrzydzanie Tuska ustawi 10% niezdecydowanych i
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„rozczarowanych” w domu zamiast przy urnie.
Jak widzicie Prawa Człowieka, gdy PiS z Konfą dojdzie do władzy?
- Razemki - czy Razemki dbają o los zwykłego człowieka? Pochylają się nad sprawami obywatelskimi? Migracją etc? Działają, czy tylko są, bo są, aby
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🇸🇪🇨🇭🇭🇷 Pronósticos ATP Umag, ATP Bastad y ATP Gstaad 🇨🇭🇸🇪 🇭🇷
🧱Mañana hay muchos partidos con cosas muy interesantes
🎾 Os dejamos las mejores recomendaciones
De Jong 🇳🇱-🇦🇷 Báez
Dos jugadores que juegan muy bien en arcilla, para nada me espero una victoria fácil para ninguno de los dos. Si ambos juegan a su nivel habitual debería ser una partido largo
📈+21,5 juegos totales @1,66
Basilashvili 🇬🇪-🇦🇷 Tirante
Basilashvili es un jugador muy irregular, pero si quiere jugar puede ganar a cualquiera. Mañana todo el valor está en el georgiano, hizo un muy buen primer partido
If Democratic voters are looking for an authentic working-class Mainer who'll take on corporate America & the political establishment, then there's still one in the Senate race. I dug into the archives to tell Troy Jackson's origin story as a politician🧵:
Jackson's political career is rooted in the struggles of Maine's long-exploited Maine loggers, which over 1998-99 saw Jackson & two others lead a series of blockades of the Quebec border, calling for an end to imported Canadian workers that were used to undercut them:
In truth, the loggers' struggles went far beyond the Canadian workers. The problem at its root was corporate concentration & greed, and the loggers' lack of rights/bargaining power. All this had turned logging into a precarious industry that more & more workers were abandoning: