Most recent unrolls from @ThreadReaderApp
Głosowanie Dot Plot
Głosowanie zostało opublikowane i wskazuje na jedno cięcie stóp procentowych w 2026 r. Rozrzut prognoz znacząco się zawęził, a głosy skupiają się wokół jednej obniżki. Rajd altów nadal jest możliwy, w zależności od warunków rezerw, które Powell zaraz omówi.
Głosowanie zostało opublikowane i wskazuje na jedno cięcie stóp procentowych w 2026 r. Rozrzut prognoz znacząco się zawęził, a głosy skupiają się wokół jednej obniżki. Rajd altów nadal jest możliwy, w zależności od warunków rezerw, które Powell zaraz omówi.
انا تزوجت بسن صغير وجبت بنت وتطلقت وبعدها تزوجت مره ثانيه وجبت عيال وبنات وراحت الايام وجات الايام طبعا بنتي اللي من زوجي الاول كنت اعاملها معامله خدامه ماكانت تهمني
دراستها ولا شي فيها كانت كل حياتي لزوجي الثاني وعيالي اللي منه بعدها كبرت بنتي وزوجتها بسن 15 سنه وكنت في قمة الوناسه لاني بفتك منها ولا ادري ليه كذا كنت اعاملها
راحت في نصيبها وكانت متحمله زوجها والضرب والاهانات وماجابت عليه احد قعدت 5 سنوات وطلقها ورجعت لي طبعا انا تضايقت مولانها طلقت لا لانها رجعت ونفس الشي عاملتها مثل الخدامه تنظف تطبخ ينزل راتبها راتب المطلقه
Weil es leider kein Vice mehr gibt: Ich für euch getestet, ob man mit dem Zug an einem Tag in jedem Bundesland ein Bier trinken kann.
Aus geografischen Gründen muss man am Vortag nach Vorarlberg reisen. In Dornbirn gibt es die billigste Unterkunft des Landes (45 € Doppelzimmer), deswegen war das der Ausgangspunkt.
Montag, Wecker 3:45. Durchs Gewerbegebiet zur 24h-Tankstelle und um 4:10 (Kein Bier vor Bier!) die erste Hoibe anreißen. Ging erstaunlich gut runter. 4:48 dann rein in den ersten Railjet.
ROMANTİZMLE
KÖY ENSTİTÜLERİNİ HATIRLAYALIM
Atatürk 1935 de Toprak Kanunu çıkartmak istedi ama köylünün eğitimsiz olduğunu, önce köy ihtiyaçları için mesleki olarak eğitilmesi gerektiğini farketti. Dönemin Milli Eğitim Bakanı Saffet Arıkan'a Muallim Mekteplerini dönüştür dedi..
KÖY ENSTİTÜLERİNİ HATIRLAYALIM
Atatürk 1935 de Toprak Kanunu çıkartmak istedi ama köylünün eğitimsiz olduğunu, önce köy ihtiyaçları için mesleki olarak eğitilmesi gerektiğini farketti. Dönemin Milli Eğitim Bakanı Saffet Arıkan'a Muallim Mekteplerini dönüştür dedi..
1-Bakan Saffet Arıkan da,
İsmail Hakkı Tonguç'a namı diğer Tonguç Babaya bu görevi verdi. 1926 daki Milli Eğitim Bakanı Mustafa Necati'nin kurduğu Muallim Mekteplerinin(Öğretmen Okulları) müfredatını köy ihtiyaçlarına göre düzenlediler.
İsmail Hakkı Tonguç'a namı diğer Tonguç Babaya bu görevi verdi. 1926 daki Milli Eğitim Bakanı Mustafa Necati'nin kurduğu Muallim Mekteplerinin(Öğretmen Okulları) müfredatını köy ihtiyaçlarına göre düzenlediler.
2-1935'lerde Saffet Arıkan ve Tonguç Baba ile başlayan bu dönüşüm, 1940 larda Hasan Ali Yücel ile devam etmiştir.
KENT UNI & Connections 👀
BROWN...Bloodline name... OBE.
European Management Science and SPANISH.
BROWN...Bloodline name... OBE.
European Management Science and SPANISH.
1. (Students%27,Announcement%20News%20Archive%20Press%20Centrekent.ac.uk/news/kentlife/…
2. More bioweapons..
Millions of schoolchildren have literally been taught that the nuclear family is a form of white supremacy in grades K-3 across America
In Rituals of Blood, the sociologist Orlando Patterson dismantled the myth that Black American had created functional alternatives to the nuclear family of village-like structures that compensate for the breakdown of the family.
In fact, Black Americans are the most socially isolated Americans with sparser rather than denser social networks in the Hood than those outside of it.
TLDR: Black Villages aren't real
"Which brings me to the second popular piece of folklore among modern Afro-Americans, what may be called the myth of the “hood,” the belief that viable informal friendship patterns and communities exist, compensating for the breakdown or absence of more formal institutions. Through sheer, baseless repetition, and through nonrepresentative case studies of a few Afro-American housing projects by urban anthropologists, it has become an accepted belief that large networks of support and natural neighborhood communities are out there waiting to be developed and built on.
Would that this were so. But my own analysis of representative samples of national network surveys confirms what other scholars have found: The typical Afro-American has a much smaller network of friends and kinsmen than other Americans do. And, what was most unexpected, the proportion of the members of this attenuated network who are kinsmen is smaller than in other Americans’ networks. There are no “hoods” out there, which is precisely why murderous gangs, like opportunistic social cancers, rush in to fill the vacuum."
In fact, Black Americans are the most socially isolated Americans with sparser rather than denser social networks in the Hood than those outside of it.
TLDR: Black Villages aren't real
"Which brings me to the second popular piece of folklore among modern Afro-Americans, what may be called the myth of the “hood,” the belief that viable informal friendship patterns and communities exist, compensating for the breakdown or absence of more formal institutions. Through sheer, baseless repetition, and through nonrepresentative case studies of a few Afro-American housing projects by urban anthropologists, it has become an accepted belief that large networks of support and natural neighborhood communities are out there waiting to be developed and built on.
Would that this were so. But my own analysis of representative samples of national network surveys confirms what other scholars have found: The typical Afro-American has a much smaller network of friends and kinsmen than other Americans do. And, what was most unexpected, the proportion of the members of this attenuated network who are kinsmen is smaller than in other Americans’ networks. There are no “hoods” out there, which is precisely why murderous gangs, like opportunistic social cancers, rush in to fill the vacuum."
À Pantin, les Ecologistes ont refusé que je fasse partie de la liste d’union de la gauche pour les municipales à cause de mes prises de position sur l’antisémitisme ⤵️
Le contexte à Pantin : le maire sortant, Bertrand Kern (PS) avait annoncé ne pas se représenter. C’est donc son premier adjoint, Mathieu Monot, qui prend la tête de la liste d’union de la gauche (hors LFI et EELV).
Génération Écologie tente de négocier un soutien à la liste de Kern en échange d’une place éligible pour GE sur sa liste. On me propose la place.
🚨BREAKING: Gemini can now build you a viral short-form video channel like a $10K content strategist (for free).
Here are 10 prompts that take you from zero to viral AI video content in 30 days: (Save for later)
Here are 10 prompts that take you from zero to viral AI video content in 30 days: (Save for later)
1/ The Viral Niche Scanner
You are a short-form video strategist who has grown 50+ accounts past 100K followers. Analyze the top 10 AI video niches on TikTok, Reels, and YouTube Shorts by engagement rate, growth speed, and monetization potential. For each, recommend the best AI video style (cinematic, anime, surreal, hyperreal). Then identify 3 competitor accounts per niche with their stats and content gaps I could own.
My interests: [YOUR TOPICS]
You are a short-form video strategist who has grown 50+ accounts past 100K followers. Analyze the top 10 AI video niches on TikTok, Reels, and YouTube Shorts by engagement rate, growth speed, and monetization potential. For each, recommend the best AI video style (cinematic, anime, surreal, hyperreal). Then identify 3 competitor accounts per niche with their stats and content gaps I could own.
My interests: [YOUR TOPICS]
2/ The AI Visual Identity System
You are a creative director for viral AI video accounts. Build me a complete visual identity guide I can paste into any AI video tool for consistent output. Include: visual style, color grading rules, motion pacing, text overlay style, aspect ratio specs, and character/scene design rules. Then write 10 reusable video prompts and a cover image style guide.
My niche: [TOPIC]
Accounts I like the look of: [1-3 EXAMPLES]
You are a creative director for viral AI video accounts. Build me a complete visual identity guide I can paste into any AI video tool for consistent output. Include: visual style, color grading rules, motion pacing, text overlay style, aspect ratio specs, and character/scene design rules. Then write 10 reusable video prompts and a cover image style guide.
My niche: [TOPIC]
Accounts I like the look of: [1-3 EXAMPLES]
Bienvenido al Rincón conspiranoico🔍
El día de hoy inauguramos este espacio con un tema difícil de abordar, la existencia de entidades humanoides 👽 y su rol en la compleja realidad sociopolítica.
Tira el hilo 🧵🧵🧵:
El día de hoy inauguramos este espacio con un tema difícil de abordar, la existencia de entidades humanoides 👽 y su rol en la compleja realidad sociopolítica.
Tira el hilo 🧵🧵🧵:
1/ ¿Qué son realmente? Se les conoce como "Los Grises", "Visitantes", o "Entidades Biológicas Extraterrestres" (EBEs). Son la arquetípica figura de la ufología moderna: seres de baja estatura, piel color ceniza y lisa, cabezas desproporcionadamente grandes y, lo más inquietante, enormes ojos negros y almendrados que parecen carecer de pupila o iris.
No son avistamientos raros; son los protagonistas del 90% de los reportes de abducción y encuentros cercanos en todo el mundo, desde el famoso caso de Betty y Barney Hill en los años 60 hasta los testimonios modernos de pilotos militares. Su presencia es el hilo conductor de un fenómeno global que desafía nuestra comprensión de la realidad.
No son avistamientos raros; son los protagonistas del 90% de los reportes de abducción y encuentros cercanos en todo el mundo, desde el famoso caso de Betty y Barney Hill en los años 60 hasta los testimonios modernos de pilotos militares. Su presencia es el hilo conductor de un fenómeno global que desafía nuestra comprensión de la realidad.
Todo comenzó con este debate.
Te invitamos a que lo revises y a qué nos dejes un comentario y un RT, ayuda mucho con el algoritmo.
Te invitamos a que lo revises y a qué nos dejes un comentario y un RT, ayuda mucho con el algoritmo.
En cartes, les 19 jours d'opérations israélo 🇮🇱 -américaines 🇺🇸 en Iran 🇮🇷
J'ai cartographié 250 villes/villages différents frappés en Iran, 235 au Liban et 170 au Moyen-Orient :
🧵THREAD🧵1/22 ⬇️
J'ai cartographié 250 villes/villages différents frappés en Iran, 235 au Liban et 170 au Moyen-Orient :
🧵THREAD🧵1/22 ⬇️
En tout, les Etats-Unis et Israël auraient réalisé plus de 15 000 frappes sur l'Iran, un chiffre qui reste à vérifier.
En tout, j'ai pu confirmer 1 450 frappes (min), avec une différence entre les villes ayant les données géolocalisées et celles avec le nombre de bombardements.
En tout, j'ai pu confirmer 1 450 frappes (min), avec une différence entre les villes ayant les données géolocalisées et celles avec le nombre de bombardements.
Au Liban, j'ai pu confirmer plus de 1 200 impacts de frappes israéliennes, en particulier dans le sud et à Beyrouth.
Au Moyen-Orient, j'ai pu compter plus de 650 impacts/frappes iraniennes, même si la réalité se trouve entre 3 000 et 3 700 frappes de ripostes.
Au Moyen-Orient, j'ai pu compter plus de 650 impacts/frappes iraniennes, même si la réalité se trouve entre 3 000 et 3 700 frappes de ripostes.
The craziest study ever - The Minnesota Starvation Experiment
32 young men were put on a 40% calorie-restricted diet for 6 months, while staying physically very active
They lost 25% of their body weight by the end of it
Here's what this study contributed to longevity research
32 young men were put on a 40% calorie-restricted diet for 6 months, while staying physically very active
They lost 25% of their body weight by the end of it
Here's what this study contributed to longevity research
The men were fed 1,800 calories a day and expended 3,000 calories on physical activity
Their diet consisted of 77% carbohydrates, primarily from potatoes, cabbage, macaroni, and whole wheat bread, and <0.8 g/kg/day of protein to mimic starvation conditions
Their diet consisted of 77% carbohydrates, primarily from potatoes, cabbage, macaroni, and whole wheat bread, and <0.8 g/kg/day of protein to mimic starvation conditions
Keys monitored their health and saw their resting heart rate dropping from 55 to 35 beats per minute
They also developed edema from all the water they drank to stave off hunger
And the whites of their eyes became white like porcelain due to shrinking blood vessels in the eye
They also developed edema from all the water they drank to stave off hunger
And the whites of their eyes became white like porcelain due to shrinking blood vessels in the eye
En 1925, el arqueólogo Howard Carter desenvolvía la momia de un faraón niño y encontró un objeto completamente imposible junto a él, un arma que desafiaba toda lógica, forjada con un material extraterrestre caído de las estrellas. La daga de Tutankamón. Tira del hilo 🧵👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽
Carter había descubierto la tumba de Tutankamón en 1922, pero tardó tres años en llegar a la momia. Oculta entre los vendajes de lino y los amuletos de oro, descansando sobre el muslo derecho del faraón, halló una daga fascinante.
La daga era una impresionante obra de arte con un mango de oro finamente decorado y un pomo esférico de cristal de roca. Pero el verdadero misterio residía en su afilada hoja, porque era de hierro y, sorprendentemente, no se había oxidado tras 3.300 años.
Marco Aurelio fue uno de los 5 mejores emperadores de Roma.
Y uno de los 3 grandes filósofos del Estoicismo.
Esta era la rutina del hombre más poderoso del mundo 👇
Y uno de los 3 grandes filósofos del Estoicismo.
Esta era la rutina del hombre más poderoso del mundo 👇
1. Se levantaba temprano, no por gusto, sino por hábito que él mismo decidió adoptar.
Comenzaba el día reflexionando y escribiendo en su diario.
"Por la mañana, cuando te levantes sin ganas, ten presente este pensamiento: Me levanto para realizar mi trabajo como ser humano."
Comenzaba el día reflexionando y escribiendo en su diario.
"Por la mañana, cuando te levantes sin ganas, ten presente este pensamiento: Me levanto para realizar mi trabajo como ser humano."
2. Practicaba Premeditatio Malorum.
Es decir, anticipaba los desafíos del día y a las personas difíciles con las que se encontraría.
Así sabría cómo reaccionar, manteniéndose sereno pero decidido.
Nota: yo también pienso que suena como un hechizo de Harry Potter 😆
Es decir, anticipaba los desafíos del día y a las personas difíciles con las que se encontraría.
Así sabría cómo reaccionar, manteniéndose sereno pero decidido.
Nota: yo también pienso que suena como un hechizo de Harry Potter 😆
Mâchoire déplacée, tirs de grenades à la tête… À Noisiel, les familles de deux victimes portent plainte pour violences policières
Sur les 4 personnes interpellées lors d’affrontements avec la police qui se sont déroulés à Noisiel, en Seine-et-Marne, dans la soirée du 16 mars,
Sur les 4 personnes interpellées lors d’affrontements avec la police qui se sont déroulés à Noisiel, en Seine-et-Marne, dans la soirée du 16 mars,
l’un des trois mineurs de 15 ans et l’homme de 35 ans ont vu leur garde à vue levée mardi 17 mars en fin de journée. Leurs deux familles ont annoncé porter plainte pour « violences policières ».
Dans son communiqué, le procureur de Meaux rappelle qu’une enquête a été ouverte,
Dans son communiqué, le procureur de Meaux rappelle qu’une enquête a été ouverte,
et confiée à l’Inspection générale de la police nationale (IGPN).
Il est 20 heures passées, mardi 17 mars, quand Yanis est appelé pour venir en aide à son voisin.
« Je passe la tête par la fenêtre et là, je vois Flavel, soutenu par sa sœur en bas de l’immeuble.
Il est 20 heures passées, mardi 17 mars, quand Yanis est appelé pour venir en aide à son voisin.
« Je passe la tête par la fenêtre et là, je vois Flavel, soutenu par sa sœur en bas de l’immeuble.
Let's unpack this..
What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
What if this war is really about ships & tariffs?
I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong.
We need to go back to the drawing boards.
That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.
What if the White House has no intention of reopening the Strait of Hormuz?
What if this war is really about ships & tariffs?
I had a long discussion with senior DOE official yesterday on background. I can’t share any details but it’s clear everyone’s Strait of Hormuz calculus is wrong.
We need to go back to the drawing boards.
That's it. That's the tweet. Now a hypothetical 🧵 with my personal thoughts.
Background on the Hormuz Crisis
You can skip this long section but know this: THIS IS ALL ABOUT SHIPS, SHIPS, SHIPS... and the US Navy giving them permission to pass.
The Strait of Hormuz is twenty-one miles wide. Two shipping channels, each two miles across, separated by a two-mile buffer. The normal traffic separation scheme runs through Iranian territorial waters, past the islands of Qeshm and Larak, where the IRGC has radar stations, missile batteries, and fast-attack craft bases overlooking every transit.
Twenty million barrels of oil and petroleum products flow through this gap every day. One-fifth of global consumption. There is no alternative. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah can handle maybe 5 million barrels combined. The math doesn’t work. The bottleneck is not political. It’s geological and hydrographic.
When those seven P&I clubs belonging to the International Group issued 72-hour cancellation notices for war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf, they didn’t just raise costs. They made transit impossible.
Here’s why.
P&I clubs insure roughly 90% of the world’s ocean-going tonnage. Without their coverage, ships can’t sail. Port authorities won’t let them dock. Banks won’t finance the cargo. Charterers won’t book the vessel. The entire system, from loading berth to discharge terminal, is underwritten by a chain of contracts that begins with a club in London, Oslo, or Tokyo.
When the clubs pulled war risk extensions on March 5, that chain broke. Not for a few ships. For the global fleet.
War risk premiums jumped from 0.25% to 1% of hull value, renewable every seven days. VLCC charter rates quadrupled to nearly $800,000 per day. Over 1,000 vessels are now trapped in the Persian Gulf, burning charter costs with nowhere to go. By March 3, only four ships crossed the Strait, down from a seven-day average of seventy-seven.
This is the part almost nobody in the media understands. Every TV analyst is talking about minesweepers and carrier strike groups. The binding constraint on Hormuz in the first week was not a minefield. It was spreadsheet in London.
Then Trump did something remarkable.
He ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to create a $20 billion maritime reinsurance facility, with Chubb as lead underwriter, making the United States government the insurer of last resort for Gulf shipping.
A sovereign nation has positioned itself as the backstop for war risk insurance on the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint. The DFC facility, coordinated with CENTCOM and Treasury, offers hull, machinery, and cargo coverage on a rolling basis to eligible vessels.
The United States now controls the on/off switch for the Strait of Hormuz. Not through naval firepower. Through insurance.
But here’s the tell.
The DFC facility covers hull, machinery, and cargo. It does not cover P&I liability: pollution, crew injury, third-party claims. Moody’s flagged this immediately. Without liability cover, most shipowners still won’t sail. The facility is deliberately incomplete.
If the White House wanted the Strait fully open tomorrow, it could expand the DFC facility to cover P&I liability with one directive. It hasn’t.
That gap is not an oversight. It’s a strike price on an option the administration is choosing not to exercise. Yet.
But now that insurance is mostly settled the ships still aren't sailing. Why?
That insurance isn't backed by the DFC, it's backed by a green light from the US Navy. A green light that hasn't appeared.
Read the latest @DOTMARAD Navy warning carefully: U.S.-flagged, owned, or crewed commercial vessels that are operating in these areas should maintain a minimum standoff of 30 nautical miles from U.S. military vessels to reduce the risk of being mistaken as a threat
They can't pass without Naval ships stepping aside to let them through.
You can skip this long section but know this: THIS IS ALL ABOUT SHIPS, SHIPS, SHIPS... and the US Navy giving them permission to pass.
The Strait of Hormuz is twenty-one miles wide. Two shipping channels, each two miles across, separated by a two-mile buffer. The normal traffic separation scheme runs through Iranian territorial waters, past the islands of Qeshm and Larak, where the IRGC has radar stations, missile batteries, and fast-attack craft bases overlooking every transit.
Twenty million barrels of oil and petroleum products flow through this gap every day. One-fifth of global consumption. There is no alternative. Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline to Yanbu and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah can handle maybe 5 million barrels combined. The math doesn’t work. The bottleneck is not political. It’s geological and hydrographic.
When those seven P&I clubs belonging to the International Group issued 72-hour cancellation notices for war risk coverage in the Persian Gulf, they didn’t just raise costs. They made transit impossible.
Here’s why.
P&I clubs insure roughly 90% of the world’s ocean-going tonnage. Without their coverage, ships can’t sail. Port authorities won’t let them dock. Banks won’t finance the cargo. Charterers won’t book the vessel. The entire system, from loading berth to discharge terminal, is underwritten by a chain of contracts that begins with a club in London, Oslo, or Tokyo.
When the clubs pulled war risk extensions on March 5, that chain broke. Not for a few ships. For the global fleet.
War risk premiums jumped from 0.25% to 1% of hull value, renewable every seven days. VLCC charter rates quadrupled to nearly $800,000 per day. Over 1,000 vessels are now trapped in the Persian Gulf, burning charter costs with nowhere to go. By March 3, only four ships crossed the Strait, down from a seven-day average of seventy-seven.
This is the part almost nobody in the media understands. Every TV analyst is talking about minesweepers and carrier strike groups. The binding constraint on Hormuz in the first week was not a minefield. It was spreadsheet in London.
Then Trump did something remarkable.
He ordered the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to create a $20 billion maritime reinsurance facility, with Chubb as lead underwriter, making the United States government the insurer of last resort for Gulf shipping.
A sovereign nation has positioned itself as the backstop for war risk insurance on the world’s most critical maritime chokepoint. The DFC facility, coordinated with CENTCOM and Treasury, offers hull, machinery, and cargo coverage on a rolling basis to eligible vessels.
The United States now controls the on/off switch for the Strait of Hormuz. Not through naval firepower. Through insurance.
But here’s the tell.
The DFC facility covers hull, machinery, and cargo. It does not cover P&I liability: pollution, crew injury, third-party claims. Moody’s flagged this immediately. Without liability cover, most shipowners still won’t sail. The facility is deliberately incomplete.
If the White House wanted the Strait fully open tomorrow, it could expand the DFC facility to cover P&I liability with one directive. It hasn’t.
That gap is not an oversight. It’s a strike price on an option the administration is choosing not to exercise. Yet.
But now that insurance is mostly settled the ships still aren't sailing. Why?
That insurance isn't backed by the DFC, it's backed by a green light from the US Navy. A green light that hasn't appeared.
Read the latest @DOTMARAD Navy warning carefully: U.S.-flagged, owned, or crewed commercial vessels that are operating in these areas should maintain a minimum standoff of 30 nautical miles from U.S. military vessels to reduce the risk of being mistaken as a threat
They can't pass without Naval ships stepping aside to let them through.
What was clear from the DOE conversation: Europe is going to have to figure this out themselves. And the White House is not sprinting to help.
I was hesitant to post this earlier today but the latest truth social posts confirms some of my suspisions.
so here goes...
I was hesitant to post this earlier today but the latest truth social posts confirms some of my suspisions.
so here goes...
Let's dimension the US robotaxi market (since market participants seem unwilling to do so).
People pattern match against structurally ~$3 per mile point to point mobility products and so misunderstand the potential scope of robotaxi as it becomes mass accessible.
The average US adult spends nearly an hour per day driving. The imputed labor cost of all that manual piloting runs in excess of $4 trillion per year.
In addition we pay $1.6 trillion annually for the actual service of driving point to point.
By giving people back time (for which they don't have to pay full freight) and winning spend share, we think the US market could approach $4 trillion annually at saturation.
Given reasonable expectations of supply diffusion and consumer adoption robotaxi service providers could exceed $1.5 trillion in revenue by 2030 with gross profits in excess of $1 trillion.
People pattern match against structurally ~$3 per mile point to point mobility products and so misunderstand the potential scope of robotaxi as it becomes mass accessible.
The average US adult spends nearly an hour per day driving. The imputed labor cost of all that manual piloting runs in excess of $4 trillion per year.
In addition we pay $1.6 trillion annually for the actual service of driving point to point.
By giving people back time (for which they don't have to pay full freight) and winning spend share, we think the US market could approach $4 trillion annually at saturation.
Given reasonable expectations of supply diffusion and consumer adoption robotaxi service providers could exceed $1.5 trillion in revenue by 2030 with gross profits in excess of $1 trillion.
Let's work through the underlying derivation.
Constructive criticism welcomed.
The richest income earners spend the most time manually driving, and can command $50 per hour after tax.
Higher earners are willing to pay a higher share of after tax wages to win time back.
Our research suggests that highest income earners would turn down something less than the equivalent of overtime pay in order to win time back. For other cohorts they buy back time at a discount to what they could otherwise take home.
This is a fairly sensitive input to overall market size.
That millenials are so obviously willing to trade time for money by hiring doordash drivers rather than schlepping to the takeout counter themselves provides decent anecdata that there is some truth to this curve.
Constructive criticism welcomed.
The richest income earners spend the most time manually driving, and can command $50 per hour after tax.
Higher earners are willing to pay a higher share of after tax wages to win time back.
Our research suggests that highest income earners would turn down something less than the equivalent of overtime pay in order to win time back. For other cohorts they buy back time at a discount to what they could otherwise take home.
This is a fairly sensitive input to overall market size.
That millenials are so obviously willing to trade time for money by hiring doordash drivers rather than schlepping to the takeout counter themselves provides decent anecdata that there is some truth to this curve.
When a consumer decides to take a robotaxi they are not just trading time for money, they are also avoiding the cost of running their own vehicle.
Top decile earners spend $.76 per mile, inclusive of the cost of purchasing vehicles, on getting from place to place (excluding air travel).
Pretty consistently, by income decile, the marginal cost of mobility runs at ~$.17 per mile.
This model assumes that people that already own vehicles are only willing to pay that $.17 at first, plus the value of their time. Over the typical vehicle life-cycle we assume that consumers avoid new vehicle purchases as they grow increasingly reliant on robotaxi.
2 car households become 1 car households and more of the transportation budget shifts into robotaxi.
(note that the fixed ownership bumpiness across income decile is almost certainly just an artifact of extracting this from a single year's CEX data crossed with a line item--vehicle purchases--that is infrequent but large across households; I clearly should smooth that but it's not particularly material to conclusions.)
Top decile earners spend $.76 per mile, inclusive of the cost of purchasing vehicles, on getting from place to place (excluding air travel).
Pretty consistently, by income decile, the marginal cost of mobility runs at ~$.17 per mile.
This model assumes that people that already own vehicles are only willing to pay that $.17 at first, plus the value of their time. Over the typical vehicle life-cycle we assume that consumers avoid new vehicle purchases as they grow increasingly reliant on robotaxi.
2 car households become 1 car households and more of the transportation budget shifts into robotaxi.
(note that the fixed ownership bumpiness across income decile is almost certainly just an artifact of extracting this from a single year's CEX data crossed with a line item--vehicle purchases--that is infrequent but large across households; I clearly should smooth that but it's not particularly material to conclusions.)
4 years ago we changed how we teach WWII -- emphasizing what a bunch of fucking dipshits the Nazis were, defeated by normies who considered the details. The Nazis sent an army into the USSR without winter coats. The US shipped 80 million gallons of Ice Cream into the Pacific. -OS
We did this because the traditional telling of WWII can lose sight of what a self-destructive fools' errand the Axis war effort was. And while it would not have been impossible for them to succeed, they were nothing near what they propagandized themselves to be. -OS
They were whittled down and eventually crushed by a Soviet willingness to spend bodies combined with the ingenuity and ideological and doctrinal flexibility of the Western Allies. -OS
Une vidéo avec un commentaire antisémite a été relayée par de nombreux camarades. Celle-ci montre une personne avec une kippa simuler une agression lors d'un rassemblement en soutien à la palestine. Si cet acte est pathétique, il y a quand même un autre souci.
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Comme vous le voyez, le collectif antifa Nice est resté based, j'ai fait exprès de laisser le commentaire. Et voyez ce qu'il était dit en-dessous quand même... Aucune modération du groupe qui a diffusé. Mais quel est ce groupe ?
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Amira Zaiter et Hager Barkous ont fondé l'association "De Nice à Gaza", renommée en Amis de la Palestine 06. C'est de là que vient la vidéo. Amira Zaiter, recordwoman de France de la plus lourde condamnation pour antisémitisme et apologie du terrorisme.
🔽france3-regions.franceinfo.fr/provence-alpes…
🔽france3-regions.franceinfo.fr/provence-alpes…
Repasando los datos de las encuestas para las elecciones de 2024 en P.R., encontré que los datos de afiliación política en la encuesta final publicada por El Vocero reflejaron con gran fidelidad el reparto promedio de votos bajo insignia en las papeletas estatal y legislativa: 1/
El reparto promedio en 2020 y 2024 de votos bajo insignia en las papeletas estatal y legislativa quedó según se presenta a continuación. Los datos de 2024 cayeron todos dentro del margen de error de 3% de la referida encuesta: 2/
Ahora bien, entre el 83% que sufragó presencialmente el día del evento en las unidades regulares, los dos partidos principales consiguieron entre sí apenas la mitad del promedio de papeletas válidas - tres de cada diez para el PNP y una de cada cinco para el PPD: 3/
If we look at the electorate broadly--not the extremes--the clear picture is that voters do not want to hear about I/P anymore. Even if they tend to be vaguely anti-Israel, they don't want to hear about it. They find it confusing, depressing, & disconnected from their lives.
Americans have *never* liked hearing about foreign policy, for the record. Post-9/11 was a unique era and, I'll add, a time when what Americans heard about foreign policy was a bunch of bullshit w/ a subtext of jingoism.
The only people who want to hear about this issue--either from the pro- or anti-Israel side--are those who already belong strongly in those camps. Meanwhile, there will not be consensus in the Democratic party on the issue & the moral recriminations are strong.
🚨Where should Direct Air Capture (#DAC) be deployed to scale carbon removal?
New research shows: costs are driven less by the technology itself and more by location, climate, and energy systems, making DAC a fundamentally geo-dependent solution.
Details🧵1/10
New research shows: costs are driven less by the technology itself and more by location, climate, and energy systems, making DAC a fundamentally geo-dependent solution.
Details🧵1/10
2/ DAC needs to scale to 0.5–5 GtCO₂/year by 2050, yet current capacity is ~0.00004 Gt.
Scaling requires massive cost reductions, and smart siting.
Scaling requires massive cost reductions, and smart siting.
3/ The study evaluates two leading approaches:
• Solid sorbent DAC (S-DAC)
• Liquid solvent DAC (L-DAC)
Using global, high-resolution data on weather and renewable energy availability.
• Solid sorbent DAC (S-DAC)
• Liquid solvent DAC (L-DAC)
Using global, high-resolution data on weather and renewable energy availability.