Germany is the epicentre of the China Shock 2.0 reverberating in global markets
In a new paper, @Brad_Setser and I show the shock is a key driver of Germany’s economic malaise. And it's accelerating
Berlin needs to stop admiring the problem, and join efforts to fight back
1/
China’s exploding exports are squeezing German firms in cars, machinery, chemicals and aerospace in China, third markets and increasingly Europe itself.
The drag from falling net exports has accelerated sharply since 2023, amounting to roughly 3% of German GDP.
2/
The damage has fed through to industrial production, with sectors most exposed to Chinese competition shrinking fastest.
Germany isn't alone. Every major EU economy except the Netherlands (buoyed by chipmaking giant ASML) has seen exports to China fall
Handelsblatt has -- on its front page -- an article summarizing my new paper with Sander Tordoir on Germany's need to find policies to actually fight back against the second China shock
China's industrial structure -- as the ECB and others have noted -- increasingly overlaps with that of Germany ... with autos being the most obvious case.
And the China shock there won't go away on its own; Chinese auto export growth accelerated in the last 12ms
2/
The China shock is also visible in the global data -- an undervalued Chinese currency propelled Chinese exports to grow much faster than global trade. China is now big, so that meant someone else's exports had to grow more slowly than global trade ...
They both each received $4000 in USDT on their CEx, the first friend thinks to himself 'Really nothing to do with it, so let me just leave it for now", so he does
The Second one also doesn't have much to do with the money, but .... 🧵🧵
he needs a passive income source and can't just let it stay dormant in his Exchange for months. Then he remembered an App he heard about some while ago on Twitter @coinexcom
CoinEx is a global crypto exchange, that offers services like buying, selling and trading of cryptocurrencies, securely.
But its most important feature is that you can stake popular coins like BTC, Eth, Sol, USDT, USDC and earn daily, without the headache of lockup periods.
"...due to the desirability of an off-
the-face design, and not for protection from aerosols, respirators may be used instead of medical masks"who.int/publications/i…
If you can stay 3 feet away while screening? No medical mask needed.
".. The Disinformation Chroniclen mukaan Munsterin ja Yindan kuljettamat suojaamattomat ja mahdollisesti vaaralliset taudinaiheuttajat saattavat heijastaa ”virologialle tyypillistä laissez-faire-turvallisuuskulttuuria” .."
3/
".. — ja silti he ovat äskettäin laatineet yhdessä tutkimuksen vaarallisten taudinaiheuttajien leviämisriskistä ”ilman pienintäkään ironian häivää”. .." 😅
1/ Russia actually won the war in Ukraine in 2023 – but the Ukrainians changed the paradigm in 2025 and have turned the tables on the Russian army since. So claims RT journalist Alexander Kharchenko, who calls for Russia to change its approach fundamentally. ⬇️
2/ Writing on the 'Witnesses of Bayraktar' Telegram channel, Karchenko says:
"We won! You heard right. In a war of "will and steel," the Russian military machine crushed Western proxy forces in Ukraine."
3/ "In 2023, we proved to everyone that the Russian state, despite all the difficulties, can accumulate resources. We crushed the enemy in Bakhmut, and mines, ATGMs, and artillery made Robotyne synonymous with Verdun.
1️⃣ When a rhythm comes from the ventricles, it travels slowly across muscle instead of racing through the Purkinje system. That’s why VT is wide, fast, and regular.
2️⃣ Next trick: look at the bundle-branch pattern.
- VT that looks like LBBB usually started in the right ventricle.
- VT that looks like RBBB usually started in the left ventricle.
Impulse travels away from its origin as if the opposite bundle is blocked.
3️⃣ VT comes from the RVOT =most common idiopathic VT
It has LBBB shape with a strong inferior axis (big positive in II, III, aVF).
These patients often feel palpitations during exercise or stress.
SitRep - 19/05/26 - More long-range strikes in Russia
An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian drones hit Yaroslavl, Ryazan and Snizhne and the General Stafff confimed hits in Kstovo.
Mr @AK_Lahmar
Soit vous êtes mal informé (comble pour un député, mais je vous laisse le bénéfice du doute, hein), soit vous êtes incompétent sur le sujet (idem), soit vous vous servez du handicap à des fins politiques (euh, jamais ! Quelle mauvaise langue je fais !)
Extraits: 1. "Ma question porte sur le manque structurel de moyens des IME...
...qui conduit à la DÉSCOLARISATION"
L'IME N'EST PAS UNE ÉCOLE !
L'idée que l'IME serait 1 "école" de remplacement est l'un des + grands mensonges du système
Dire que le manque 2 places en IME ⤵️
In 2021, Mukesh Ambani announced a 40 GWh cell gigafactory at Jamnagar, scaling to 100.
In May 2026, Reliance is back in talks with CATL — to buy finished cells and package them into Indian boxes, with press releases still calling it manufacturing. 🧵
Reliance is not alone. Exide's cells are licensed from SVOLT, Amara Raja's from Gotion and Highstar, Tata's Agratas from AESC — the Chinese-owned maker that has a board seat.
Every conglomerate that set out between 2021 and 2023 to build cells has retreated to assembling them.
Licensing now, R&D later, has been a plausible playbook — CATL was a TDK licensee, Samsung SDI started on Japanese chemistry.
But the trick is to pair the licensing with R&D investment at scale, and the Indian conglomerates have done the licensing without the R&D.
🟦 הארץ שלי 🔹 מדור בריאות 🩺 🔹
המחקר שהסתמכת עליו אינו קיים: הספרות הרפואית טובעת בציטוטים מפוברקים של AI • עידו אפרתי • שרשור 🧵 haaretz.co.il/health/2026-05…
הקדמה קצרה:
מאמר מדעי שפורסם בכתב העת The Lancet, הצליח לראשונה לאמוד את היקף התופעה של ציטוטים ומראי מקום בדויים בספרות הרפואית, תוצר של השימוש בבינה מלאכותית. בין מחברי המאמר גם רופא ישראלי, שמזהיר מפני זליגה של ההמצאות להנחיות טיפול מעשיות.
צילום: לממשקי בינה מלאכותית יש נטייה לרצות את המשתמש ולהפיק עבורו מידע בכל מחיר - גם כזה שאינו נכון.
@idoefrati1 @Haaretz (1) בתחילת החודש הופיע על שער ה-Lancet, אחד מכתבי העת הרפואיים החשובים בעולם, מאמר שהוא בבחינת דגל אדום בוהק עבור עולם המחקר המדעי, הרפואי והאקדמי.
2/.
Ich lerne ja jeden Tag dazu und heute habe ich ein fantastisches neue Detail über Kalium gelernt, das meine Beobachtungen stark bestätigt hat, aber auch gleichzeitig meine Perspektive tief gewandelt hat.
Kalium ist ein GAMECHANGER bei chronischer Müdigkeit!
Lass uns einen DEEP DIVE in KALIUM machen!
🧵
Ich habe in der PRAXIS immer gemerkt, dass Kalium echt ein GAMECHANGER ist. Es hilft innere Ruhe zu finden, sich energetischer zu fühlen, Blutdruck zu senken etc.
Eine Kaliumreiche Ernährung (>5g täglich, ACHTUNG bei Niereninsuffizienz) hilft enorm bei chronischer Müdigkeit und Stress.
Aber meine Erklärung dafür war immer:
- "Antagonist zu Natrium"
- "Membranstabilisierung"
- "Macht Aktionspotential möglich"
- "68% der Menschen haben Mangel"
Jetzt lerne ich was, was meine Perspektive ordentlich ins Rütteln gebracht hat. Fantastisch!
Nämlich:
Wir wissen, dass die mitochondriale Energieproduktion über Protonenpumpe (Komplex 5) am Ende der Atmungskette angetrieben wird. Sie heisst Protonenpumpe und es wird gesagt sie wird über Protonengefälle, also H+ angetrieben. Das steht in ALLEN Lehrbüchern.
BREAKING: AI can now create dividend portfolios that can generate $100,000 in passive income a year — for free.
Here are 12 powerful Perplexity prompts With which you will find safe + growing dividend stocks.
Save this thread. 🧵
1. The Berkshire Hathaway Dividend Stock Screener
"You are Warren Buffett evaluating dividend stocks for Berkshire Hathaway's $300B+ equity portfolio — selecting only companies with such durable competitive advantages that they can pay and grow their dividends for the next 50 years without interruption.
I need a complete dividend stock screening analysis that separates safe compounders from dividend traps.
Screen:
- Consecutive dividend increases: how many years in a row has this company raised its dividend (25+ = Aristocrat, 50+ = King)
- Dividend growth rate: annualized dividend growth over 3, 5, and 10 years (I want 7%+ to outpace inflation)
- Payout ratio from earnings: percentage of net income paid as dividends (below 60% is safe, above 75% is danger)
- Payout ratio from free cash flow: percentage of FCF paid as dividends (more reliable than earnings-based ratio)
- Revenue stability: has revenue grown in at least 8 of the last 10 years without major drops
- Earnings consistency: has EPS grown in at least 8 of the last 10 years without wild swings
- Debt-to-EBITDA: can the company pay off all debt within 3 years of EBITDA (low leverage = safer dividend)
- Interest coverage: EBIT divided by interest expense above 5x (debt payments easily covered before dividends)
- Economic moat: does this company have pricing power, switching costs, or scale advantages that protect future profits
- Dividend safety score: rate 1-10 based on all factors with a clear safe, watch, or danger classification
Format as a Buffett-style dividend safety report with a scorecard, red flag checklist, and a buy/hold/avoid recommendation.
The stock: [ENTER TICKER SYMBOL OF THE DIVIDEND STOCK YOU WANT EVALUATED]"
2. The Vanguard Dividend Growth Portfolio Architect
"You are a senior portfolio strategist at Vanguard who designs dividend growth portfolios for retirees and pre-retirees — portfolios built to generate rising income every year that keeps pace with inflation without ever touching the principal.
I need a complete dividend growth portfolio built from scratch with specific stocks, allocations, and income projections.
Architect:
- Portfolio strategy: dividend growth (rising income) vs high yield (maximum current income) — which fits my situation
- Sector diversification: allocate across all 11 sectors so no single industry can cut my income stream
- Stock selection: 15-25 specific dividend stocks with ticker, current yield, 5-year dividend growth rate, and payout ratio
- Allocation weights: exact percentage and dollar amount for each position based on my total investment
- Yield-on-cost projection: what my portfolio yield will grow to in 5, 10, and 20 years if dividends keep growing at current rates
- Current annual income: total dividend income from day one at my investment amount
- Income growth forecast: projected annual income in year 5, year 10, and year 20 assuming historical dividend growth continues
- Reinvestment strategy: should I reinvest dividends (DRIP) now and switch to income later, or take cash from day one
- Tax-efficient placement: which dividend stocks go in taxable, IRA, or Roth accounts for minimum tax drag
- Rebalancing rules: when to trim winners, add to laggards, and replace any stock that cuts or freezes its dividend
Format as a Vanguard-style portfolio construction document with holdings table, sector allocation, and a 20-year income growth projection.
My situation: [ENTER YOUR TOTAL INVESTMENT AMOUNT, AGE, WHEN YOU NEED THE INCOME, AND YOUR TARGET ANNUAL DIVIDEND INCOME]"
🧵 THREAD: Vastu Tips for Placing God Idols at Home 🛕✨
(For Peace, Prosperity & Positive Energy)
Your home temple isn’t just decoration…
It’s the energy center of your house.
Wrong placement = disturbed vibes.
Right placement = blessings multiply. 🙏🔥
1/ ✅ Best Direction for Mandir:
➡️ North-East (Ishan Kona) is the most powerful.
It attracts divine energy & keeps negativity away. 🌟
If North-East isn’t possible…
Then go for:
➡️ East or North direction.
These are also considered highly auspicious. 🕉️
2/ ❌ Never place idols in South direction
South is linked with Yama direction & heavy energy.
It may create unnecessary stress in the house. ⚠️
✅ Idols should face:
➡️ East or West
So that when you pray, you face East/North (best for spiritual growth).
Le représentant républicain du 4e district du Kentucky #Massie, conservateur libertarien très à droite, est balayé en primaire. Pour s'être opposé au président #Trump, comme sur le dossier #Epstein. Chez les républicains, 1 seule tête...(🧵ci-dessous). 1/ nbcnews.com/politics/2026-…x.com/CorentinSellin…
...et ceux qui ont refusé le déni électoral de 2020, comme Raffensperger en #Géorgie, sont écrasés dans les primaires républicaines. Parce que cet électorat- le plus partisan et mobilisé- est attaché à D. #Trump comme à un chef et guide incritiquable. 2/ politico.com/news/2026/05/1…
Il y a plusieurs leçons- à cette heure- de cette purge totale du parti républicain par D. #Trump. D'1 part, elle souligne qu' il sera le faiseur de rois pour la primaire présidentielle républicaine 2028. Dur de concevoir un post- trumpisme dans ce parti..3/
1/ We are sharing additional details regarding our investigation into unauthorized access to GitHub's internal repositories.
Yesterday we detected and contained a compromise of an employee device involving a poisoned VS Code extension. We removed the malicious extension version, isolated the endpoint, and began incident response immediately.
2/ Our current assessment is that the activity involved exfiltration of GitHub-internal repositories only. The attacker’s current claims of ~3,800 repositories are directionally consistent with our investigation so far.
3/ We moved quickly to reduce risk. Critical secrets were rotated yesterday and overnight with the highest-impact credentials prioritized first.