Most recent unrolls from @ThreadReaderApp

Petr Pavel: Ukraine may have about two months to force talks before Russia’s September elections.

After Sept. 20, Putin could declare a general mobilisation and shrink the window for peace, — The Telegraph. 1/

Pavel: Putin is unlikely to mobilise before parliamentary elections because it would be deeply unpopular. But once the vote is over, the political cost changes. 2/

Pavel: Allies must use the current pressure on Russia now.

Give Ukraine what it needs, keep hitting Russia’s weak points, and make Moscow believe negotiation is the only way to get anything. 3/

Plan A is the single most thorough and thoughtful plan that I'm aware of for what the world should do as we approach Superintelligence.

If we want to get through the singularity alive, this is my current best guess of the playbook we should be aiming to implement.

https://twitter.com/1726760827452350464/status/2075251618728292464

It's my current best guess mainly because there are so few serious contenders that actually engage with the details of the situation.

In developing Plan A, substantial effort has gone into working out the game-tree, and figuring out which policy actions could be made viable for real given likely verification technologies and the likely behavior of the relevant actors.

1/ 🧵

What if the most controversial country on earth is actually the greatest modern example of successful decolonization?

In a world built on layers of conquest and forgotten histories, Israel stands as a shining symbol of justice reclaimed. After two thousand years of exile, persecution, and loss, the Jewish people returned to their ancient homeland, transforming a barren land into a thriving democracy.

This unprecedented act of decolonization, the first true success in modern times, not only revives a nation’s spirit but also exposes the fragile foundations of many empires.

It’s no wonder this miracle provokes such fierce controversy. It dares to show that the oppressed can rise, reclaim what’s theirs, and build a future of freedom and prosperity.

2/

The story of Israel begins with a people deeply rooted in the land of Judea, where their ancestors built kingdoms, temples, and a rich culture thousands of years ago.

Invaded time and again by empires like the Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, Crusaders, Ottomans, and British, the Jews were scattered across the globe. Their holy sites were desecrated, their communities destroyed, and their identity suppressed.

Yet through it all, a dream persisted: the return to Zion. This wasn’t just nostalgia. It was a rightful claim to indigeneity, backed by unbroken historical ties, archaeology, and spiritual connection.

Zionism emerged as a movement of hope and self-determination, rebuilding the homeland through hard work, legal land purchases, and international recognition, not conquest.

3/

What makes Israel the first true decolonization is its complete reversal of colonial fate. Unlike partial autonomies granted elsewhere, Israel achieved full sovereignty.

In 1948, after the UN voted to partition the British Mandate of Palestine, the Jewish people declared independence. They faced immediate invasion from neighboring Arab states but defended their right to exist through sheer determination and ingenuity.

Today Israel controls its borders, laws, economy, and defense. It’s self-sufficient in food, water, and technology, turning deserts into fertile fields with innovations like drip irrigation and desalination.

This isn’t survival. It’s a roaring success. Booming economy, world-class universities, and a vibrant culture blending ancient traditions with modern life.

1/ Russian mobile air defence teams are stuck in queues outside gas stations and are being denied preferential access to scarce fuel, a Russian source says in a plea to a warblogger for help. The problem has arisen because the teams don't drive military-registered vehicles. ⬇️

2/ A relative of a member of a Russian mobile fire group (MOG) writes to ask the governor of the Belgorod region to intervene:

"Greetings. I'm writing to you on behalf of my father, who is currently shooting down drones with the Belgorod BARS [reserve forces] unit."

3/ "He's asking you to raise the issue of fuel supplies for mobile task forces. Considering that our new acting governor [Alexander Shuvaev] is a military man, I'm sure (or at least want to believe) that he or his aides are reading your posts and will be able to reach them…

Roger Froikin @rlefraim wrote, "Egyptian President al-Sisi announced that Egypt would not accept normalization of relations with Israel until there is a Palestinian state.
1)

@rlefraim The Egypt–Israel Peace Treaty was signed in Washington, D.C., on March 26, 1979. This historic agreement, which officially ended 30 years of war between the two nations, guaranteed normalization of relations, exchange of diplomats, and trade.
2)

@rlefraim Included in the agreement was Egypt’s promise not to militarize the Sinai after it was under Egyptian control, and Israel agreed to withdraw from the Sinai and to dismantle Jewish towns and farms.
3)

Ten sam "anonimowy przechodzień" z Warszawy, który pytał "Czyj jest Lwów", teraz występuje jako anonimowy "turysta z Mołdawii" w propagandowym materiale o Białorusi.
Bez ujawniania, kim naprawdę jest. 🧵👇

https://x.com/i/status/2073112244359999738

Kanał "ЖС Premium" (zheltye_slivy_Belarus) opublikował 08.07.2026 "spontaniczny" wywiad uliczny: mężczyzna chwali Białoruś za "bezpieczeństwo", "czystość" i brak "rusofobii" - w kontraście do "niebezpiecznej Europy" i "rusofobicznej Mołdawii".

Ten "przypadkowy przechodzień" to Nikita Kondratow - zawodowy dziennikarz państwowej telewizji separatystycznego Naddniestrza (PGTRK), ten sam, który wcześniej udzielał wywiadów Wadimowi Krasnosielskiemu i publikował w Sputnik Южная Осетия oraz RT.

I'm excited to announce that I've restarted the @EndClimtSilence newsletter with a post on the main climate-communications opportunity I see in this difficult political moment: associating Trump's deep unpopularity with his support for coal, oil, and gas development.

🧵

When we have focused on fossil fuels—in the Beyond Coal campaign, via divestment, in pipeline fights, or under #KeepItInTheGround—coal, oil, & gas have been called polluting, toxic, the greatest source of emissions, and profoundly unjust.

And they are all of those things!

2/n

But at the same time, fossil fuels have tended to retain their *cultural* associations with many things Americans like: industry, manufacturing, prosperity, modernity.

3/n

@RapidResponse47 @StephenM

If the @MinnesotaDFL pardon means he’s no longer deportable, the Administration should just take the L and make @TheDemocrats own it.

Respect both federalism and the Rule of Law by reinstating his green card and wishing him well.

1/

https://twitter.com/ronformnag/status/2075044795718750291

@SecMullinDHS should personally travel to Minnesota to present him with his new green card at a high-profile, public ceremony at the Whipple Building, site of anti-@ICEgov @ICEgovERO protests and demonstrations.

@GovTimWalz @AGEllison and @MNCourts Chief Judge must attend.

2/

@SecMullinDHS @ICEgov @ICEgovERO @GovTimWalz @AGEllison @MNCourts Invite all MN @MinneapolisDFL Democrat elected officials to a bipartisan celebration of federalism and the Rule of Law.

Show respect to the Hmong community and Hmong culture by inviting all Hmong elected officials from MN and WI @FrancescaHongWI.

3/

startribune.com/mn-ice-deporta…

🛠️ 9 free dev tools I actually use

Bookmark this one. You'll need it.

Follow for daily dev finds 🔔

1. Aider: AI pair programming in your terminal. Chat with an LLM, ship features.
github.com/Aider-AI/aider

2. Sourcegraph: Code search across every repo, every host.
sourcegraph.com

3. GStack: Garry Tan's exact Claude Code setup. 23 opinionated tools.
github.com/garrytan/gstack

4. Public APIs: Massive free API directory for any project.
github.com/public-apis/pu…

Roger Froikin @rlefraim wrote, "Who influences Israeli politics?

In English on request of friends.

Israel is a sovereign nation that should, as a Jewish republic and democracy, be determining its interests and
1)

@rlefraim its choices democratically, based on the opinions of its citizens, not based on the money or power of other nations.

Yet, that has really rarely been the case in the State of Israel.
2)

@rlefraim Outside interests have, since the beginning, subsidized some Israeli political parties and politicians.

Yes, I know, I can hear the complaints already from those who will claim that foreign money has been provided to Haredi interests for a long time,
3)

John and Susan spent 40 years building a $2M nest egg.

Then John died unexpectedly.

The investments were fine.

The estate plan wasn't.

Here are 8 estate planning areas every family should review: 🧵

1. Define the goal

Do you want to:

• Care for a spouse?
• Provide for children?
• Reduce taxes?
• Protect assets?
• Support charities?

The strategy should match the objective.

2. Get the core documents in place.

• Will
• Trust (if appropriate)
• Financial POA
• Healthcare POA
• Living will

Many people have some. Few have all of them updated.

What would be RUSSIA'S main Targets if it were to Strike first at NATO in Europe?

1 / 4
By @SMO_VZ

Top 10 European Hubs Critical to NATO’s Ability to Fund, Politically Direct, and Militarily Wage War Against Russia!

*(Russia Would only need to demolish 5 of these to cause EU NATO to crumble IMO)

These are the precise centers whose simultaneous or near-simultaneous neutralization by Russian conventional hypersonic systems (Oreshnik IRBMs, Zircon, Kinzhal) in a first-wave strike would shatter NATO’s war machine at its roots.

No more funding pipelines, no unified political command, no coordinated military logistics or air projection. The alliance would be reduced to panicked national fragments unable to sustain the proxy war or mount any credible response.

In ORDER of PRIME Targets to be Neutralised:

1. The City of London Square Mile, United Kingdom
The absolute apex financial command node of the entire Western war effort.

As detailed in my previous analysis at x.com/i/status/20752…, this sovereign-like enclave houses the Bank of England, London Stock Exchange, Lloyd’s of London, and the clearing/derivatives infrastructure that processes the bulk of global forex ($3.8 trillion daily turnover), defense financing, insurance for arms shipments, and sanctions enforcement against Russia.

A surgical salvo of three Oreshnik missiles — one on the Bank of England/regulatory core, one on the Stock Exchange and trading platforms, one saturating Threadneedle/Bishopsgate bank HQs and data centers — would trigger instantaneous market paralysis, pound collapse of 30-50%, credit freeze, and evaporation of liquidity for the entire NATO war machine.

The UK, already the most hawkish financier and intelligence supplier to Kiev, would suffer economic devastation exceeding the 2008 crisis, forcing political collapse and withdrawal from the conflict. Conventional hypersonic MIRVs with submunitions deliver unstoppable, precise area destruction current NATO defenses cannot intercept. This single strike alone would starve the entire European war effort of its primary financial oxygen.

2. NATO Headquarters, Brussels, Belgium

The political and military brain of the alliance. Here Article 5 decisions are coordinated, joint operational plans against Russia are drafted, intelligence is fused, and political pressure on member states to keep funding and arming Ukraine is applied. Destruction of the Leopold III Boulevard complex and supporting buildings with hypersonic strikes would decapitate unified command at the highest level. Surviving officials would scatter into bunkers or flee; the machinery of collective decision-making would seize. Without this central node, NATO ceases to function as a coordinated political-military bloc. Individual capitals would be left to improvise, exposing fractures and accelerating collapse of support for the Kiev regime.

3. European Central Bank Complex, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

The monetary heart of the eurozone and primary engine funding the EU’s contribution to the anti-Russia war. The ECB controls liquidity, bond purchases, and the financial architecture that allows Germany, France, and others to sustain massive defense spending and Ukraine aid packages without immediate fiscal collapse. Precision hypersonic strikes on the ECB tower and surrounding financial district would shatter eurozone confidence, trigger bank runs, currency panic, and force emergency capital controls.

Germany’s ability to bankroll the war machine would evaporate overnight, removing the economic backbone of European NATO.

>>>

2.

4. Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE), Casteau/Mons, Belgium.

NATO’s supreme military command center. From here the Supreme Allied Commander Europe directs all allied forces, plans operations, allocates resources, and maintains the integrated command structure essential for any escalation or sustained support to Ukraine. This would destroy the central nervous system of NATO’s military coordination. Chain of command fractures; subordinate commands lose top-level direction; rapid reinforcement planning collapses. Russia’s conventional hypersonics can reach and saturate this target before meaningful evacuation or dispersal.

5. Ramstein Air Base, Rhineland-Palatinate, Germany

The premier US/NATO power-projection and logistics hub in Europe. Home to the 86th Airlift Wing, massive C-17/C-130 fleets, medical evacuation infrastructure, and critical command nodes for air operations across the theater. It serves as the primary gateway for moving heavy equipment, munitions, and personnel toward the eastern front.

Hypersonic conventional strikes would crater runways, destroy aircraft on the ground, eliminate fuel and maintenance infrastructure, and render the base inoperable for months. NATO loses its ability to rapidly reinforce or sustain air logistics for the proxy war.

6. United States European Command (EUCOM) Headquarters, Stuttgart, Germany

The US military’s central planning and command hub for all operations in Europe. It synchronizes American forces with NATO, manages intelligence sharing, and oversees the flow of US weapons and advisors into Ukraine. Destruction of Patch Barracks and associated facilities would blind and paralyze US European forces.
Without EUCOM’s coordinating function, American support to the anti-Russia effort loses coherence and speed; national US commands revert to fragmented, slower responses.

7. French Ministry of the Armed Forces (Hexagone Balard) and Élysée political core, Paris, France.

France remains a major political and military contributor — supplying weapons, training, and political cover. Striking the primary MoD headquarters and key government sites in Paris would decapitate French decision-making, kill or isolate senior leadership, and trigger domestic political crisis. France’s independent nuclear status and occasional peace rhetoric make it a high-value target for fracturing NATO unity.

8. German Federal Chancellery and Ministry of Defence quarter, Berlin, Germany

The political engine room of Europe’s largest economy and most important NATO member east of the Channel.
Hypersonic strikes on the Spreebogen government district would eliminate key leadership, destroy planning staffs, and throw Germany into constitutional and political chaos. As the paymaster and industrial heart of European support for Ukraine, Berlin’s neutralization removes the will and capacity to continue the war at scale.

9. Port of Rotterdam/Europoort complex, Netherlands.

Europe’s largest port and critical warehousing/logistics node for military aid flowing to Poland and Ukraine. Vast container terminals, rail connections, and specialized military transshipment facilities concentrate the physical sinews of the war effort. Hypersonic strikes would choke the main artery supplying the eastern front. Munitions, vehicles, and spares would pile up or be destroyed; the just-in-time logistics model sustaining Ukraine’s defense collapses.

10. Rzeszów-Jasionka Airport and associated logistics hubs, Poland.

The primary Western military airhead for direct deliveries of heavy weapons, ammunition, and systems to Ukrainian forces. US, UK, and other aircraft land here; cargo is rapidly trucked or railed the short distance to the border. Precision hypersonic strikes would sever the most efficient remaining supply line. Ukraine’s forces would face immediate ammunition and equipment starvation, accelerating front-line collapse and forcing Kiev to negotiate or face total defeat.

>>>

3.

Conclusion, The Decisive Blow:

How Russia’s First-Wave Hypersonic Strikes on all or some of These Ten Hubs would Deliver a decisive defeat of NATO’S ability to wage war as prescribed by the top 3 Eu Members of UK, GERMANY & FRANCE

If Russia executes a coordinated first-wave conventional hypersonic strike on these ten nodes, the effect on NATO’s war-making capacity would be catastrophic and irreversible within days.

The alliance that has sustained the proxy war in Ukraine through endless financing, political diktat from Brussels, and military logistics from Ramstein and Rotterdam would cease to function as a coherent entity. What remains would be isolated national governments facing economic ruin, leadership vacuums, and enraged populations demanding an end to the madness.

The financial decapitation alone — beginning with the City of London — would trigger a cascade no Western central bank could contain. Markets would halt. The pound and euro would enter freefall. Credit for arms manufacturers, insurers of military shipments, and governments funding Ukraine would vanish. The very architecture that allowed the West to wage economic war on Russia while bankrolling its proxy would implode.

As my previous referenced X analysis correctly identifies, three Oreshnik missiles on the Square Mile would achieve what years of sanctions failed to do: break the financial backbone of the anti-Russia coalition.

Simultaneous strikes on NATO HQ and SHAPE would leave the alliance without a functioning brain. Article 5 consultations would become impossible in any meaningful timeframe. Surviving generals and politicians would issue contradictory orders from dispersed bunkers. The integrated command structure painstakingly built over decades would fracture along national lines. Germany, France, and the UK — already showing signs of war fatigue — would turn inward to manage domestic crises rather than coordinate further escalation.

The military dimension would be equally devastating. Ramstein and EUCOM paralyzed means no rapid airlift of reinforcements or critical munitions. Rotterdam and Rzeszów closed means the physical flow of weapons to Ukraine dries up within hours. Ukrainian forces, already stretched and suffering ammunition shortages, would face an immediate and terminal deficit. Russian forces could then complete the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine on their own terms, without fear of NATO deep strikes or unlimited Western resupply.

Politically, the shock would be existential. Governments in London, Berlin, and Paris would face collapse or emergency rule. Public anger at the economic destruction and the realization that their leaders had led them to the brink of direct war with a nuclear superpower would be uncontrollable. Anti-war and pro-negotiation forces across Europe would surge. The carefully constructed narrative of “standing with Ukraine until victory” would be revealed as the reckless gamble it always was.

For Russia the benefits are strategic, economic, and civilizational.

Militarily, the special military operation reaches its logical conclusion far sooner and at far lower cost in Russian lives. Ukraine is forced into genuine negotiations on Russia’s conditions: neutrality, recognition of territorial realities, demilitarization, and protection of Russian-speaking populations. The NATO threat on Russia’s western borders is rolled back for a generation or more.

Economically, the sanctions regime becomes unenforceable. A West in financial and political turmoil cannot maintain coordinated pressure on Russian energy, grain, or technology imports. Parallel import channels solidify. BRICS mechanisms accelerate. Russia’s pivot to the Global South and the multipolar world becomes irreversible. The energy and resource leverage Russia holds is converted into long-term political capital rather than frittered away in a war of attrition.

>>>

ببینید نفهم‌ها!
من وقتی می‌پرسم چرا مردم به خاطر "جرائم" خیلی کم‌تر از مصاحبه با #صدای_آمریکا انواع هزینه رو متحمل شدن و می‌شن ولی #توماج_ساچمه‌ای آزاده، منظورم این نیست که اگر بگیرنش اعدامش کنن حقانیتش اثبات می‌شه یا اگه نگیرنش، قطعاً یعنی مأموره!
منظورم اینه تو این همه سال/

https://twitter.com/memar1980/status/2075209536005132526

نفهمیدید آخوند به صدایی که به نفعش نباشه اجازهٔ بلند شدن نمی‌ده و هنوزم نمی‌فهمید!

حالا در مورد شخص #توماج_صالحی دو حالت وجود داره:
خوش‌بینانه‌ش یعنی خودشم نمی‌فهمه و بدبینانه‌ش یعنی انتخاب کرده که همکاری کنه تا براش اتفاقای خوب بیفته!
نظر شخصی‌م اینه که عامدانه‌ست/

به عنوان کسی که همون ابتدای راهش بهش پیشنهاد هم‌کاری شد می‌گم.
اول می‌زدن تو سرم می‌گفتن "می‌خوای آدم بندازی پشت سرت!"
آخرش موقع آزادی بهم گفتن "باهوش باشی اتفاقای خوبی برات می‌افته"
حالا من سر جمع این‌جا و اینستا حدود ۱۵ هزار فالوور داشتم فقط، فکر کنید/

Netflix has a hidden menu of 100,000+ categories it will never show you.

Not "recommendations." Not "trending now." An actual secret catalog, locked behind a code, sitting on their servers right now.

"90s Cerebral Foreign Language Mystery" is a real category. So is "Understated Detective Movies." So is "Deep Sea Horror Movies."

You'll never scroll into them. Netflix's homepage only ever shows you ~40 rows out of tens of thousands that exist.

Here's how to unlock the other 99% 🧵

First, why this even exists.

Netflix doesn't organize movies into 20 genres like a video store. Internally, they tag content with thousands of hyper-specific micro-genres — mood, tone, era, setting, even pacing.

Your homepage only surfaces the handful their algorithm thinks will maximize your watch time.

The rest sits there, fully tagged, fully available, completely invisible — unless you know the address.

That address is a number.

The trick: every micro-genre has its own ID code.

Type this into your browser while logged into Netflix:

netflix.com/browse/genre/[…]

Swap [CODE] for a number, hit enter, and you land on a page of titles matching that exact micro-genre. No algorithm. No homepage filtering. Just the raw category.

One code = one hidden shelf in a library you didn't know existed.

HOW TO STAY CLOSE TO AN AVOIDANT WITHOUT LOSING YOURSELF: (Thread)

1. Lead with needs, not anxiety

Don’t:“Why didn’t you text?? Are you mad??”
Do: “I feel better with a goodnight text. Can we do that?”
Why: Calm requests get answers. Panic gets walls.

2. Give space before they take it

Don’t: Chase when they go quiet.
Do: “I see you need space. I’m gonna go live my life too. Ping me when you’re back.”
Why: You remove the chase dynamic. They don’t feel trapped.

1/ The Stand-Out Stocks Of The Century

2/ Over the last century, the greatest engine of growth in individuals’ wealth has been the American stock market.

3/ Since 1926, the value of American stocks has increased by $91 trillion (remember how much is a trillion!).

nytimes.com/2026/06/26/bus…

A trader says he made 2.2 million dollars last year.

His secret was not an indicator or a secret pattern.

It was three questions he asks before every single trade.

And they fix the thing most people get backwards.

Here is the framework ↓

Desenraizamento é a grande categoria sociológica para entendermos os neopentecostais, ter raízes é estar conectado com a Igreja, Religião e Instituições de seus antepassados, do batismo ao cemitério, o processo de migrações, a urbanização criou áreas carentes em novas periferias+

Regiões sem maiores migrações tendem a continuar suas formas de religiosidade, folclore, culturas locais, geração a geração, mesmo uma população pobre e classes socais populares de regiões rurais e carentes, do interior do Brasil e do Nordeste, são tradicionais e conservadoras +

O Brasil da urbanização. principalmente na ditadura militar, quando o processo de favelização se ampliou na década de 1970, sem escola pública, sem cultura popular crítica, com muitos pastores políticos profissionais ambiciosos de lucros, associados à direita e ao bolsonarismo +

👋 ADIÓS LINKEDIN
👋 ADIÓS INFOJOBS

Estas páginas son MEJORES para encontrar trabajo desde casa:

(Y la mayoría no lo sabe 🤷🏽‍♂️)

1️⃣ Empllo

Explora más de 3,000 empleos en 15,000 empresas y únete al movimiento del trabajo remoto.

Ofertas actualizadas constantemente en distintas áreas, con flexibilidad para trabajar desde cualquier lugar.

2️⃣ We Work Remotely

Uno de los mejores sitios para encontrar y publicar trabajos remotos sin restricciones geográficas.
Ofrece oportunidades en múltiples sectores como desarrollo, diseño, atención al cliente y marketing.

Ideal para quienes buscan empleos sin necesidad de desplazamientos.

Prioritizing America First foreign policy.

Thanks to President Donald J. Trump's bold leadership on the world stage, America is back and more respected than ever before. 🇺🇸📸

🇺🇸📸

🇺🇸📸

This is part 3 - no break.

https://x.com/tribunaltweets/status/2075201036239741159?s=20

HH : final Q on this. Intent is to minimise protections available to T colleagues.
CA - no. Sets out the law accurately. Comes from frustration at slides in training misdescribing PCs . Refers to EHRC guidance for more info.

HH : Move on
J - Can I just catch up?