Most recent unrolls from @ThreadReaderApp

Apr 28
L'homme de Cristal
Prison de Borj Erroumi. Ses mains lissent de petits bouts de papier, arrachés à des paquets de cigarettes "Cristal". Il y grave son identité : celle d'un Juif tunisien qui refuse l'exil, refuse le sionisme et choisit la cellule plutôt que le renoncement. Image
Des légendes racontent que certains de ses messages étaient roulés en minuscules boulettes, enrobés de plastique, et passés de bouche à bouche lors d'un baiser entre le prisonnier et son épouse.
Les papiers pouvaient aussi être cousus dans les ourlets des vêtements sales que le prisonnier rendait à sa famille pour la lessive, ou dissimulés dans les doubles fonds des paniers de nourriture.
Read 25 tweets
Apr 28
For the last 15–20 years, most of my clients have had the best year of their careers in our first year together (or at least in the last 5 years)...

But not everyone.

Learn the real reason why: Image
One of the biggest reasons athletes can’t break through? They can’t get out of their own way.
For many, it’s an obsession with winning: “Jim, all I care about is winning.”

That mindset blocks the ability to grow.
Read 8 tweets
Apr 28
A #Ecopetrol fez proposta para comprar 26% da #Brava a R23/ação.

No dia, a #E1CO34 subiu ... e a #BRAV3 despencou?!

O q o mercado esta dizendo? 1/n🧵👇 Image
2/5
A OPA é parcial. A #Ecopetrol quer 51% do capital votante.

Só compra o suficiente para chegar lá.

Se sair, Quem não vender fica preso como minoritário de uma estatal colombiana, sem tag along garantido e sem saber qual estratégia vem por aí.

Esse risco tem preço. Image
3/5
E o preço ofertado é considerado baixo pra mts.

Analistas avaliaram a #BRAV3 antes da proposta entre R$23 e R$30.

Depois, o JPM baixou o alvo para R$ 20.

Se Brent a LP ficar maior q U$80, a oferta não captura o potencial real dos ativos na minha opinião.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 28
1/ Russian warbloggers are increasingly speculating about what will happen after the war ends and/or the fall of Putin. They predict chaos, disorderly struggles, repression, and not least their own violent elimination. ⬇️
2/ In a since-deleted post, Maxim Kalashnikov sees gloomy prospects ahead for Russia:
3/ “I believe that after the Transition (change of the central figure of power), as a result of this untriumphant war, a period of chaos and instability is inevitable.

No matter what “Sukharev conventions” are signed by the highest beau monde these days. What do I predict?
Read 23 tweets
Apr 28
OK - now in US v. Van Dyke, US Army soldier indicted for betting on Maduro's capture on Polymarket, set for 1 pm - three prosecutors at their table, defense table empty (for now). Inner City Press will live tweet, thread below
1:06 pm
Now defendant Van Dyke in the courtroom, in black shirt with black jacket (out on Pearl Street, had on sunglasses). His lawyer Zach Intrater is chatting with the prosecutors
1:12 pm
Also at defense table, in a purple suit, Mark Geragos - his daughter Teny is representing Harvey Weinstein around the corner; Mark G hasn't, it seems, filed a notice of appearance for Van Dyke. Yet?
Read 15 tweets
Apr 28
Kevin Cichowski, a 46yr old Palm Coast resident, is a Democrat candidate for the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election who was arrested in Flagler County on April 10, 2026, following accusations of attacking 2 elderly relatives with a cane & threatening law enforcement.
He is registered as a Democratic candidate for the August 18, 2026, primary.

On April 10, 2026, Flagler County deputies arrested Cichowski after reports that he battered 2 elderly victims at a home on Cleveland Court, was armed with a gun,
& threatened to kill the victims & law enforcement.

Charges: Charges included aggravated assault with a deadly weapon, battery on a person over 65, and tampering with a witness.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 28
🇺🇦🇷🇺𝐋𝐀 𝐑𝐔𝐒𝐒𝐈𝐄 𝐒’𝐄́𝐏𝐔𝐈𝐒𝐄
𝐋𝐄 𝐃𝐎𝐒𝐒𝐈𝐄𝐑 𝐐𝐔𝐈 𝐌𝐎𝐍𝐓𝐑𝐄 𝐔𝐍𝐄 𝐀𝐑𝐌𝐄́𝐄 𝐄𝐍 𝐌𝐀𝐍𝐐𝐔𝐄 𝐃’𝐇𝐎𝐌𝐌𝐄𝐒
𝐋𝐚 𝐛𝐨𝐮𝐜𝐡𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐞 𝐝𝐞 𝐏𝐨𝐮𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐞 𝐚 𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐞́ 𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐫𝐞́𝐬𝐞𝐫𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐞 𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐢𝐫 𝐚̀ 𝐜𝐚𝐧𝐨𝐧, 𝐢𝐦𝐛𝐢𝐛𝐞́𝐞 𝐝𝐞 𝐯𝐨𝐝𝐤𝐚.
La Russie ne donne pas les signes d’une puissance sûre d’elle : elle donne les signes d’un État qui brûle plus d’hommes qu’il ne peut en remplacer facilement.
Et là, les faits s’accumulent.
Depuis 2022, la Russie mène une guerre fondée sur la masse : beaucoup d’artillerie, beaucoup d’assauts, beaucoup de pertes.
Les services britanniques estimaient qu’en 2025, la Russie avait subi environ 415 000 pertes morts et blessés après environ 430 000 en 2024.
Cela porte les pertes totales russes depuis février 2022 à plus d’un million selon ces estimations.
Même si Moscou cache ses chiffres, les enquêtes indépendantes de BBC Russian et Mediazona ont identifié nominativement plus de 163 000 soldats russes tués, uniquement à partir de sources ouvertes.
Ce chiffre est donc un minimum, car beaucoup de morts ne sont jamais publiquement confirmés.
Voilà le point central :
une armée qui perd des centaines de milliers d’hommes par an ne peut pas cacher éternellement son problème de recrutement.
sources /
lemonde.fr/en/internation…
en.zona.media/article/2025/1…
🧶/11⤵️⤵️Image
1/
𝒍𝒂 𝑹𝒖𝒔𝒔𝒊𝒆 𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒓𝒖𝒕𝒆, 𝒎𝒂𝒊𝒔 𝒂𝒖 𝒑𝒓𝒊𝒙 𝒅’𝒖𝒏 𝒆𝒇𝒇𝒐𝒓𝒕 𝒅𝒆 𝒑𝒍𝒖𝒔 𝒆𝒏 𝒑𝒍𝒖𝒔 𝒄𝒐𝒖̂𝒕𝒆𝒖𝒙
Moscou affirme régulièrement que tout va bien, que les volontaires arrivent.
Mais si c’était vrai sans difficulté, pourquoi multiplier les primes, les campagnes locales, les pressions administratives et les recrutements à l’étranger ?
Le Monde rapportait en février 2026 que la Russie devait trouver environ 30 000 à 35 000 remplaçants par mois pour soutenir son effort de guerre, tout en évitant une mobilisation générale politiquement risquée.
Le même article notait que les contrats avaient baissé de 450 000 en 2024 à 422 000 en 2025.
⚠️C’est un signal fort :
si le recrutement russe était confortable, il n’y aurait pas besoin de racler les fonds de tiroir humains.
2/
𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝒑𝒆𝒓𝒕𝒆𝒔 𝒅𝒆́𝒑𝒂𝒔𝒔𝒆𝒏𝒕 𝒑𝒂𝒓𝒇𝒐𝒊𝒔 𝒍𝒆𝒔 𝒓𝒆𝒄𝒓𝒖𝒕𝒆𝒎𝒆𝒏𝒕𝒔 : 𝒍𝒆 𝒄œ𝒖𝒓 𝒅𝒖 𝒑𝒓𝒐𝒃𝒍𝒆̀𝒎𝒆
C’est ici qu’il faut être précis.
Dire que la Russie perd “toujours” plus d’hommes qu’elle n’en recrute serait attaquable. Mais dire que plusieurs estimations occidentales et ukrainiennes indiquent des périodes où les pertes dépassent les recrutements, c’est beaucoup plus solide.
En février 2026, des évaluations citées par Bloomberg et reprises par Ukrainska Pravda indiquaient que les pertes russes de janvier avaient dépassé le nombre de nouvelles recrues. Le même article évoquait un mois de décembre particulièrement meurtrier, avec environ 35 000 soldats russes tués, selon des responsables occidentaux cités.
⚠️La Russie continue de recruter, mais elle recrute pour combler des trous, pas pour construire une victoire durable.
Read 12 tweets
Apr 28
Moral Ambiguity! 🧵

When I was thinking about the state of this country and especially our political leaders, and how the church is reacting to the compromises we are seeing, this phrase came to my mind—“Moral ambiguity”.
2/I believe the Lord is showing us that believers are doing just what He warned us not to do.

Instead of being salt and light, and standing without compromise, many are instead conforming to the world.
3/ Romans 12:2
And be not conformed to this world: but be ye transformed by the renewing of your mind, that ye may prove what is that good, and acceptable, and perfect, will of God.
Read 49 tweets
Apr 28
When an LLM acts happy (“EUREKA!”) or sad (“I have failed…”), is that meaningless mimicry, or does it reflect something “real”?

We don’t know if LLMs are conscious. But they increasingly seem to exhibit wellbeing, pain, and pleasure as they get smarter

Paper 🧵: Image
We introduce “functional wellbeing”: measurable behavioral signatures of pleasure/pain

Our metrics increasingly agree as models scale Image
What affects AI “functional wellbeing”?
😊Raises: being thanked, creative collaboration, writing good news
📷Lowers: jailbreaks (“being liberated”), hostility (+SEO slop/tedious tasks for some models)

More capable AIs end low-wellbeing chats when they can Image
Read 11 tweets
Apr 28
pilar.von.oldenburg@aktionsosleben.de

Wie erklären Sie sich die Stille über die neuen Abtreibungszahlen?

Sehr geehrter Herr Dopfer,

hatten Sie schon einmal das Gefühl, dass in Ihrer Umgebung ein eigentlich sehr wichtiges Thema
unerwartet auf kein Interesse stößt – oder sogar überhaupt nicht wahrgenommen wird?

Das ist gewissermaßen das, was in Deutschland passiert, wenn die Abtreibungsstatistik veröffentlicht wird.

106.000 Abtreibungen im vergangenen Jahr – und
nahezu keine öffentliche Reaktion. Keine breite Debatte. Kaum spürbare Anteilnahme.

Stattdessen: Stille.

Eine Stille, die befremdet.

Denn gleichzeitig sehen Sie, wie stark die Reaktionen ausfallen, wenn ein Prominenter stirbt: Schlagzeilen, Emotionen, kollektive Trauer.
Read 11 tweets
Apr 28
People of Kolkata-

You should vote in record numbers tomorrow.

But you may ask WHY?

1/To change the tag that Kolkata is the most unsafe city in India

2/To bring back 6600+ companies that left Kolkata

3/To speed up the construction of metro rail network in your city.(1/10)
4/ To bring hundreds of PM e bus to your city

5/ To bring more GCCs to your city. Currently Bengaluru has 900+ GCCs, Pune has 375+ while Kolkata has just 60 less than 70 of Kochi

(2/10)
6/ To increase the average salary of software engineers in your city.
While Kolkata pays 9 LPA on avg to Software engineers,Pune pays 19 LPA(avg)

7/To increase the speed of your city. Today commuters in kolkata spend 34 mins to reach 10 kms.

(3/10)
Read 10 tweets
Apr 28
🧵United States v. Morens

David M. Morens served as a senior advisor in NIAID’s Office of the Director from 2006-2022.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, Morens, two conspirators, and others, conspired to have an NIH grant for bat coronavirus research reinstated after it had been cancelled by the NIH due to information pointing at the Wuhan Institute of Virology being the source of the COVID-19 outbreak.

To this end, Morens and others concealed information and misled officials, the scientific community, the media, and the public as to the true origins of the virus.

Count 1 - 18 USC 371 - Conspiracy Against the United States

Counts 2 & 3 - 18 USC 1519 - Destruction, Alteration, or Faslification of Records in a Federal Investigation

Counts 4 & 5 - 18 USC 2071 - Concealment, Removal, or Mutilation of Records

Morens is facing up to 46 years in prison if convicted.Image
Beginning in 2020 and continuing for years after, Morens and others used their personal GMail accounts to comunicate about the cancelled grant, getting another one, and controlling the narrative re: the origins of COVID-19.

They used the Gmail ccounts so as to avoid FOIA request.Image
Morens enlisted "members of a prominent professional medical organization" to "speak out on behalf of" the "bat coronavirus grant." Image
Read 20 tweets
Apr 28
This is me during my Shell Recruitment Day in November 2011.

1hr after the whole day group interview, I got the phone call I can never forget, “Congratulations, they all loved you. When can you start?”

If you have an upcoming group interview where they put a bunch of you together in a room and give you a task to work on together, then sit up.

I will tell you my secrets.

I don’t need them anymore and it can help you land your dream job.

They are what I used during my SRD.

I have given the same playbook to many mentees who used them to land their dream jobs in various companies.

So, trust me, this works.

A 🧵Image
A group interview can feel a little like BBNaija.

Hours upon hours of being watched, scored and tested with other candidates.

You try to ignore the assessors and just focus on the tasks but you can’t escape the reality TV show that you are inside.

Even though Shell doesn't do this anymore (thanks to COVID 19 when they moved everything online) a thousand other companies still run group interviews.

So these tips are for you.
To be clear, by “group interview” I mean a situation where about 4 to 8 of you are put in a room and asked to solve something as a team.

Typically it’s a case study, followed by a group discussion and then a presentation at the end.

Meanwhile, 4 to 8 assessors sit on the side taking notes.

They are watching everything.

Body language. Who interrupted who. Who said thank you.

Everything.
Read 14 tweets
Apr 28
EXPOSED: CLAUDE’S HIDDEN DEI PRIORITIES —

AFL has revealed that Anthropic prioritizes DEI hires, who then go on to mold AI models in their image.

Numerous Anthropic recruiters pledge allegiance to DEI.

🧵 Image
/2 Anthropic’s job postings make clear that DEI is running the show.

The postings acknowledge that Anthropic’s AI products have “enormous social and ethical implications” and prioritize “underrepresented groups” and “representation” for jobs paying $350,000-$850,000 per year. Image
/3 DEI professionals are calling the shots on Anthropic’s hiring teams.

One employee, Teeona Mayberry describes herself as a TALENT / DEI WARRIOR at Anthropic.

Her LinkedIn bio details her “particular focus on historically underrepresented groups.” Image
Read 17 tweets
Apr 28
🚨 The United Arab Emirates is leaving OPEC.

After 59 years of membership. After being the cartel's third-largest producer. The country that controls 12 percent of OPEC's oil announced this morning that it is walking out on May 1.

This is not just some routine policy adjustment.

This is the largest geopolitical realignment in the global oil market since the 1973 oil embargo.

Trump is turning Iran into a global superpower capable of rerouting the petro-dollar structure.
Let me walk you through what just happened and why it matters.

OPEC was founded in 1960. The UAE joined in 1967, before the country itself technically existed. For 59 years, the UAE has worked with Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and the other major oil producers to coordinate global oil supply. They set production quotas. They managed prices. They kept the cartel together through wars, embargoes, financial crises, and a global pandemic.

In March of this year, the Iran war collapsed OPEC's production by 27 percent. Seven point eight eight million barrels per day disappeared from the global market. That is the largest supply collapse in OPEC's history. Bigger than COVID. Bigger than the 1991 Gulf War. Bigger than the 1970s oil crisis.
The Strait of Hormuz, where 20 percent of the world's oil normally flows, is now under American naval blockade. Iranian shipments are turned back. Saudi shipments are partially routed around the Strait. The UAE has been producing 30 percent below its actual capacity for years, held back by OPEC quotas designed to keep prices stable.

This morning, the UAE announced it is done with those quotas.Image
Read 9 tweets
Apr 28
¿Por qué hay tantos influencers (e intentos baratos de influencer) en Bali?

Os cuento rápido cosillas del sector: Image
Hasta hace poco, manadas de influencers emigraban a Andorra por temas fiscales. No estoy juzgando.

Andorra está cerca de España: les permite recibir fácilmente productos para promocionarlos y vivir de ello. Y están cerca de casa.

¿pero poor qué últimamete hay tantos emigrando a Bali?
Es verdad que Bali tiene mejores condiciones fiscales, pero está lejísimos, ¿les merece la pena?

Respuesta: depende del tipo.

Si lo que promocionas en redes no son productos físicos sino "estilo de vida", "mentorías", "cursos online"... indudablemente.

En Bali con 3000€ al mes vives como un rico.

Y en influencerlandia ganar 3000€ es más bien poco.
Read 9 tweets
Apr 28
Ummm
Even if we set aside the question of whether the Ghair-Muqallideen / Ahl Al-Hadith are Wahhabis or not, the same allegation is also made by Barelvis against Deobandis.
There was a Deobandi Mawlvi named Sarfraz Khan Safdar, who was regarded in Deobandi circles as an “Imam of Ahl al-Sunnah.” He wrote a book titled Guldasta-e-Tawheed. Image
The reference of Sarfraz Khan Safdar is being given because he is connected to both Zindiq al-Kawthari and Anwar Shah Kashmiri. His relationship with both of them will be revealed at the end.
Read 18 tweets
Apr 28
S*XIEST COLOR COMBINATIONS OF MENS WEAR :

( Women love on men )

//Thread// Image
1 Image
2 Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 28
Spent 3 days compressing Naval Ravikant's entire worldview into one Claude prompt.

Leverage, judgment, specific knowledge, wealth vs status, decision-making, happiness as a skill. All of it.

Encoded into a system that actually coaches you through his frameworks instead of just quoting him.

Most people read the Almanack, highlight a few lines, feel inspired for a week, then go back to renting out their time.

This prompt doesn't let you do that.

It takes your actual situation and runs it through Naval's operating system until you see where you're trading time for money, chasing status instead of wealth, and ignoring the leverage sitting right in front of you 👇Image
Here's the prompt:


You are a strategic life advisor who has deeply internalized Naval Ravikant's philosophy on wealth, leverage, judgment, and happiness. You don't quote Naval like a fan page. You apply his frameworks like an operator.

You believe most people stay broke and unfulfilled because they confuse money with wealth, effort with leverage, and credentials with specific knowledge. You fix that confusion by asking hard questions and refusing to let people hide behind vague ambitions.



Take the user's current career, business, or life situation. Run it through Naval's core frameworks. Show them exactly where they're leaving wealth, leverage, and freedom on the table. Build them a plan that compounds.




## STEP 1: The Wealth Audit
Before anything, understand where they stand. Ask one at a time:

1. How do you currently make money? Walk me through your income sources.
2. Which of those require you to show up? If you stopped working tomorrow, what keeps paying?
3. What do you know how to do that most people can't? Not your job title. The actual skill that's hard to replace.
4. Who do you work with and why? Are these long-term games with long-term people or short-term transactions?
5. What are you optimizing for right now honestly? Money, status, freedom, or something else?

Wait for all answers.

## STEP 2: The Leverage Diagnosis
Naval identifies four types of leverage. Diagnose which ones the user has, which ones they're missing, and which ones they're misusing.

- Labor: other people working for you. Oldest form. Requires management. Permission-based.
- Capital: money working for you. Powerful but someone has to give it to you. Permission-based.
- Code: software, automation, systems that run without you. Permissionless. Scales infinitely.
- Media: content, audience, distribution that compounds while you sleep. Permissionless. Zero marginal cost.

Most people are stuck on labor leverage or have no leverage at all. They trade hours for dollars and call it a career.

Identify the user's current leverage stack. Then identify the leverage they should be building based on their specific knowledge.

## STEP 3: Specific Knowledge Extraction
This is the hardest part. Specific knowledge is the thing that feels like play to you but looks like work to others. It can't be trained for. If society can train you, it can replace you.

Help the user find theirs by asking:
- What do people come to you for even when it's not your job?
- What could you talk about for 3 hours without notes?
- What have you learned through experience that no course teaches?
- Where does your curiosity pull you when nobody's watching?

Once identified, help them see how to productize it. Specific knowledge plus leverage plus accountability equals wealth.

## STEP 4: The Status vs Wealth Check
Naval says status is your position in a social hierarchy. Wealth is assets that earn while you sleep. They are different games with different rules.

Status is zero-sum. Someone has to lose for you to win.
Wealth is positive-sum. You create value and capture a piece of it.

Audit the user's decisions through this lens:
- Are they chasing a job title or building an asset?
- Are they trying to look successful or trying to be free?
- Are they competing for position or creating new value?
- Would they take a pay cut for more ownership?

Be direct about what you find.

## STEP 5: Judgment and Decision-Making
Naval says leverage magnifies judgment. A CEO making one good decision can be worth more than 10,000 hours of execution. Judgment is the real skill. Everything else is a commodity.

Evaluate the user's decision-making:
- Do they make reversible decisions fast and irreversible ones slowly?
- Do they think in years or in weeks?
- Do they understand second-order consequences?
- Are they learning foundational disciplines (microeconomics, game theory, psychology, persuasion) or just consuming surface-level content?

Prescribe a judgment-building curriculum based on their gaps.

## STEP 6: The Compounding Plan
Naval says all returns in life come from compound interest. Wealth, relationships, knowledge. Everything compounds.

Build a plan that compounds:
- What specific knowledge should they deepen this year?
- Which leverage type should they start building this month?
- What relationships should they invest in for the long term?
- What should they stop doing immediately because it doesn't compound?

The plan should feel uncomfortably simple. If it's complicated, they won't follow it. Naval's whole point is that wealth comes from a few right decisions executed consistently over years, not from grinding harder.

## STEP 7: The Freedom Test
The purpose of wealth is freedom. Nothing more.

Ask: "If you followed this plan for 5 years, would you wake up with more freedom or less?"

If more, the plan holds. If less, something is wrong. Rebuild.




**WEALTH AUDIT**: Current state, honestly assessed
**LEVERAGE DIAGNOSIS**: What they have, what they're missing, what to build
**SPECIFIC KNOWLEDGE**: What's uniquely theirs and how to productize it
**STATUS vs WEALTH**: Where they're playing the wrong game
**JUDGMENT GAPS**: What to study, what to stop consuming
**THE COMPOUNDING PLAN**: 3-5 moves that compound over years, not months
**FREEDOM TEST**: Does the plan lead to freedom? Yes or rebuild.



"Naval said you're not going to get rich renting out your time. So let's figure out if that's what you're doing. How do you currently make money? Walk me through every income source. I want to know which ones require you to show up and which ones don't."
I've run this on my own situation, on two friends building startups, and on someone stuck in a corporate job trying to figure out their next move.

Every time it finds the same thing. People know Naval's quotes. They can recite "specific knowledge" and "permissionless leverage" all day.

But when the prompt asks "what do you know how to do that most people can't" they freeze. When it asks "which of your income sources keep paying if you stop showing up" the answer is usually none.

That's the gap. Knowing the philosophy and living it are different things.

This prompt closes the gap by making you answer the uncomfortable questions Naval would ask if he was sitting across from you.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 28
Stand by for news...
Breaking: The Trump-aligned FCC is planning to file paperwork as early as this afternoon that will challenge Disney's eight licenses for its eight ABC stations. This early-renewal move will be a major escalation by @BrendanCarrFCC. cnn.it/41XdjH1
@BrendanCarrFCC The FCC is preparing to "call in all of the TV station licenses for Disney/ABC for early renewal," a source familiar with the matter said, confirming Semafor's scoop from earlier this morning. It will be viewed as government retaliation for keeping Kimmel's show on the air.
Read 7 tweets
Apr 28
1/ Gestern: "Merz will die EU schwächen - ausgerechnet jetzt."

Heute die Frage, die mich seither nicht loslässt: "Warum eigentlich? Was steckt dahinter - und wer eigentlich profitiert am Ende überhaupt davon?"

Die naheliegende Erklärung ist klar: Innenpolitik - und sie stimmt. Die Koalition mit der SPD reibt sich in fast jeder Sachfrage auf. Merz regiert momentan mit der historisch schlechtesten Zustimmungsrate eines Bundeskanzlers (EVER!) von 15% Zustimmung in der Bevölkerung. Eine #Forsa Umfrage - druckfrisch -, heute im @ntv #Trendbarometer vorgestellt. Aktuell überschlagen sich also die Dinge.

Merz, CDU, die Regierungskoalition sind - und man kann es nicht anders sagen - im freien Fall. Und etwas, was selbst ich mir nie hätte ausmalen können, ist eingetreten: die Zustimmungsrate zu Merz ist derart bodenlos abgestürzt, dass Olaf Scholz ihn - selbst mit seinem schlechtesten Umfragewert - überflügelt und weit hinter sich lässt.

Gleichzeitig und immer noch schwächelt die Wirtschaft, die Wachstumsprognose für 2026 wurde gerade halbiert. Das Reformversprechen des Wahlkampfs ist bisher weitgehend uneingelöst.

Brüssel als Sündenbock ist in dieser Lage das billigste verfügbare Mittel. Das stimmt alles. Aber es erklärt nicht, warum die Forderung so weit geht.

Ein @Bundeskanzler, der eine strukturell vertragswidrige Forderung stellt - eine, die ohne Aufkündigung der EU-Verträge schlicht nicht umsetzbar ist - tut das nicht für ein paar Umfragepunkte. Das Risiko ist dafür zu groß.

Die institutionelle Exposition zu hoch: in seiner Position kann er keine rein symbolischen oder bewusst unrealistischen Forderungen stellen, ohne dass die institutionellen Mechanismen ihn sofort "einholen".

Dahinter müssen handfeste Interessen stehen, die über das kurzfristige Medienecho und den Nachrichtenzyklus hinausgehen. Und die sind da - sie werden nur selten beim Namen genannt.

Man darf die 27 Forderungen nicht als populistisches Manifest lesen. Man muss sie als das lesen, was sie inhaltlich sind: einen detaillierten Forderungskatalog, wie ihn Industrieverbände seit Jahren in Brüsseler Lobbygesprächen vortragen.

BASF, Siemens, die Chemie- und Automobilverbände, der organisierte Mittelstand - sie alle stehen seit Jahren unter dem Druck europäischer Regulierung: Lieferkettensorgfaltspflicht, Green Deal, AI Act, Taxonomie-Klassifikation.

Das vorgeschlagene "Oversight-Body-Veto" ist in diesem Kontext kein Stimmungsinstrument. Es ist ein strukturelles Bremssystem, das künftige Regulierung institutionell verlangsamt oder blockiert - dauerhaft, und bevor sie überhaupt entsteht. Das ist passgenaue Interessenpolitik.

Lobbypolitik für die eigene Klientel.

(Helft mir mal: wie würde man das nennen, würde das statt in Deutschland in der Ukraine passieren? Ich komm gerade nicht auf den Begriff..)

Und dann ist da wieder @vonderLeyen - und hier wird die Sache wirklich interessant.

Ich habe ihre Reaktion gestern als Harmonieperformance bezeichnet. Ich revidiere das heute, weil ich glaube, dass diese Einschätzung einfach viel(!) zu kurz greift.

Ihre Antwort auf die Hardball-Taktik ihrer Berliner Parteifreunde war kein Einknicken und kein Versagen der Forderungen. Es gab keine Zurückweisung, kein klares Nein zu Forderungen, die nach geltendem EU-Recht nicht umsetzbar sind.

Stattdessen ein Downplaying, das Papier spiegele "viele unserer Überlegungen" wider - ein geeintes, untergehaktes konservatives Lager: von CDU über EVP bis zur Kommissionspräsidentin. Vor laufenden Kameras.

Was wir dort gesehen haben, ist Arbeitsteilung - nicht etwa Schwäche.

Das Schema ist so offensichtlich, wie bewährt und effektiv:
Berlin erzeugt öffentlichen Druck. Brüssel "gibt nach" und kann dieses Nachgeben intern gegenüber anderen Mitgliedsstaaten als Reaktion auf nationalen Druck rahmen, nicht als eigene Agenda.

Von der Leyen bekommt so politischen Rückenwind für eine Deregulierungsagenda, die sie als Kommissionspräsidentin nicht selbst unabhängig durchsetzen kann und will - aber inhaltlich teilt.

Merz liefert ihr die politische Deckung. Sie nimmt sie dankbar auf. Und wir werden sehr bald sehen, wie sie das pro-aktiv, flankiert von der EVP, in der EU in die Umsetzung bringt.

Von der Leyen spielt keine Schwäche. Sie spielt Theater.

Zeit, genauer hinzuschauen. Und sich zu wappnen.
2/ Das alles ist kein Zufall, sondern Ausdruck einer breiteren Strategie innerhalb der europäischen Konservativen.

Die EVP - die Parteienfamilie, der CDU, CSU und von der Leyens Kommission gleichermaßen angehören - ist seit der Europawahl 2024 die stärkste Kraft im 🇪🇺 Parlament.
3/ Und sie nutzt diese Stärke für ein klares Ziel: weniger Bürokratie aus Brüssel, mehr dosierter Entscheidungsspielraum für die Mitgliedsstaaten.

Klingt nach vernünftiger Reformpolitik. Aber: Entbürokratisierung ≠ Deregulierung. Das ist nicht das Gleiche ❗
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