Most recent unrolls from @ThreadReaderApp
Day 51 of the Hormuz crisis.
Brent $94. Consensus: "priced in."
My read: the biggest macro dislocation of 2026 is loading — and positioning is brutally wrong.
Here's what happens in the next 48 hours 🧵
Brent $94. Consensus: "priced in."
My read: the biggest macro dislocation of 2026 is loading — and positioning is brutally wrong.
Here's what happens in the next 48 hours 🧵
The IMF warned this week: "We're not going back to the Goldilocks scenario." ( CNBC )
Translation: even with a deal, the inflation premium is structural.
13M bpd shut-in. 500M+ barrels of cumulative lost supply. CNBC A deal tomorrow still needs months to clear the backlog.
Translation: even with a deal, the inflation premium is structural.
13M bpd shut-in. 500M+ barrels of cumulative lost supply. CNBC A deal tomorrow still needs months to clear the backlog.
Watch this week's tape:
Thu: Brent rips to $99
Fri: Iran says "strait open" → −10% to $90
Sat: Iran reverses → +6.5%
Sun: USS Spruance seizes the Touska
Mon: Trump floats new talks → −4%
Every headline = a scalp. This is a regime, not a trend.
Thu: Brent rips to $99
Fri: Iran says "strait open" → −10% to $90
Sat: Iran reverses → +6.5%
Sun: USS Spruance seizes the Touska
Mon: Trump floats new talks → −4%
Every headline = a scalp. This is a regime, not a trend.
En 1959, nueve montañeros rusos huyeron de su tienda de campaña en ropa interior a 30 grados bajo cero para morir en la nieve. Sus cuerpos tenían el pecho aplastado, radiación y a una le faltaba la lengua. Se le conoce como el Incidente del Paso Dyatlov. Tira del hilo 🧵👇🏽👇🏽👇🏽
En enero de 1959, un grupo de diez experimentados esquiadores de la Universidad de los Urales, liderados por Igor Dyatlov, emprendió una durísima expedición hacia la montaña Otorten. Querían conseguir la máxima certificación deportiva de la Unión Soviética.
El inicio fue normal, aunque uno de ellos, Yuri Yudin, tuvo que abandonar por un fuerte dolor articular. Esa enfermedad le salvó literalmente la vida. Mientras, los otros nueve jóvenes continuaron su peligroso ascenso adentrándose en los helados y remotos montes Urales del norte.
@Nucleocapsoid We absolutely should be working hard to set up,clean air policies in all schools, too,educate on these things including teach about masking.
Because schools have always been major sites of spread because of the high#s of contacts/numbers per room, per day like daycare,
/1
Because schools have always been major sites of spread because of the high#s of contacts/numbers per room, per day like daycare,
/1
@Nucleocapsoid somewhat college campus, nightclub is another of ex but doesn’t occur as many hours per week, others. schools are just such a huge consistent volume of a country’s pop of usually approximately 5&up (though many younger in some counties are also in daycare).
/2
/2
@Nucleocapsoid Starting about Aug-Sept ‘20, US had many huge outbreaks in schools, lighting up news, same 1 yr later w Delta, same w Om variants, even more noticeable earlier before nadir became as high (w peaks lower (after first $ but area under curve high) .
/3
/3
Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has issued another sole stinging dissent. In a 7-2 decision (with liberal justice Elena Kagan joining the majority), the Court upheld the authority of police to make a stop based on the totality of the circumstances...
...Jackson wrote that "I cannot fathom" how the seven justices could second-guess the lower court in rejecting the police claims. She accused her colleagues of mere "wordsmithing." Just for the record, it would be useful to review those words...
...The stop that Jackson (and the DC Circuit) found to be unjustified occurred after a call over a suspicious vehicle at 2am. When they arrived, two people ran from the car and the remaining passenger slowly began backing out of the parking lot with a door still open...
On this day in 1939, Billie Holiday recorded the first great protest song of the Civil Rights Movement, 'Strange Fruit’
The Chilling Story of Strange Fruit and Billie Holiday.
A THREAD!
The Chilling Story of Strange Fruit and Billie Holiday.
A THREAD!
"Strange Fruit" was originally a poem written by Jewish-American writer, teacher and songwriter Abel Meeropol, under his pseudonym Lewis Allan, as a protest against lynchings and later set it to music.
The song soon came to Billie Holiday's attention & after so many frequent requests of that song, she closed out EVERY performance with it. The waiters would stop serving ahead of time for complete silence, the room would darken, a spotlight would shine on Holiday's face…
@Fraslin Faut tout de même avouer que c'est bien hypocrite tout cela.
"Ils" ont TOUS laissé-faire Elon Musk, "ils" lui ont TOUS déballé le tapis rouge, et en lui donnant Agréements, Licences, Autorisations sans mérite, garantie ni test dignes de ce nom…
1/n
"Ils" ont TOUS laissé-faire Elon Musk, "ils" lui ont TOUS déballé le tapis rouge, et en lui donnant Agréements, Licences, Autorisations sans mérite, garantie ni test dignes de ce nom…
1/n
@Fraslin Tout ça lors de ses périodes "Anarcho-Libertarien/Woke/Obama-friendly" exhibant fièrement son fils de 8ans en robe (délire de "non-binarité" à la Hollywoodienne), puis "Réac-Libertarien/Trumpist" rejetant son "ex-fils" & opposé au transgenrisme.
2/n
2/n
@Fraslin Ca laisse-faire, puis ça s'indigne après…
C'est ça une société dite (à tort*) "libérale" par l'imposture Libertarienne d'Anarcho-Réac (selon le moment) confondant alors "Liberté" avec "Anarchie/Chaos" : étrange pour des gens pourtant censés "éduqués".
3/4
C'est ça une société dite (à tort*) "libérale" par l'imposture Libertarienne d'Anarcho-Réac (selon le moment) confondant alors "Liberté" avec "Anarchie/Chaos" : étrange pour des gens pourtant censés "éduqués".
3/4
Alex Jones is siding with Iran, the #1 terror state in the world that seeks nuclear weapons and a Marxist North American caliphate ruled by sharia law.
1)
1)
Alex Jones owes about $1.5 billion to Sandy Hook victims’ families and a first responder and they are
Reality: They’re still trying to collect through bankruptcy and asset seizures.
2)
Reality: They’re still trying to collect through bankruptcy and asset seizures.
2)
Has someone paid him to flip against President Trump & America? I'm just asking questions. Twice Iran has tried to assassinate President Trump and four of their Twelver Shia Muslim clerics (same faith as Mayor Mamdani, by the way,) have issued fatwas against President Trump.
3?
3?
Let's explore this AT&T 6300 that I picked up from consignment at VCF East this weekend. It's going to go to a friend soon, but we can at least look at it first! Time for a 🧵
First of all, here it is with the cover removed. What a weird computer!! Two disk drives. Apparently the video card connects the top logic board with the motherboard below.
Let's get the cover back on. First, I removed the degraded foam after it made a mess everywhere. And then I learned that I really need to "pull" the left support a little to put it in place so that the case would latch properly. You can see wear marks where it was "hitting."
Creo que es necesario hablar de como usan el principio de transposición de Goebbels la derecha de este país con el asunto del narcotráfico. Veamos como VOX, Ayuso y Negre llamaron narcos a presidentes democráticos sin vínculos con el narco, y como sus socios sí los tienen.
De manera coordinada VOX, Ayuso y algunos profesionales de la mentira como Negre llevan repitiendo este mantra sin ninguna prueba. Ayuso lo usó para criticar el foro progresista vs su reunión con María Corina Machado.
Es llamativo como Ayuso acusa de narcotraficantes a Petro, Lula o Claudia Sheinbaum, sin que exista ninguna relación probada, pero olvida que su líder era amigo del mayor narco de España, ella es amiga y premió a los narcos Noboa y Uribe y al financiado por el narco Milei.
Про "бедного убийцу" из русской литературы.
Мне в принципе интересно следить за "волнами" контента в Инстаграме: ещё сегодя все рилсы у тебя - в упитанных турецких мужчинах, требующих изготовить им кебаб кило на пять, а уже завтра >>
Мне в принципе интересно следить за "волнами" контента в Инстаграме: ещё сегодя все рилсы у тебя - в упитанных турецких мужчинах, требующих изготовить им кебаб кило на пять, а уже завтра >>
>> никаких турецких мужчин, только Dead Dance, потому что вышел финал сезона Wednesday.
И вот волна саундтреков рилсов, после NO BATIDÃO и "Пубертата", со вчерашнего дня захлестнула меня навзрыдным бухим Есениным с "Сыпь, гармоника". Контрастненько.
И вот волна саундтреков рилсов, после NO BATIDÃO и "Пубертата", со вчерашнего дня захлестнула меня навзрыдным бухим Есениным с "Сыпь, гармоника". Контрастненько.
Я слова узнал, и слегка охуел от того, что это вообще делает в 2026 году в Инстаграмме. Ну, то есть, что такое "Сыпь, гармоника": лирический герой 5 строф как может хуесосит некую безымянную женщину, называет её сукой, выдрой (WTF!!), пугалом, стервой, угрожает "дать в морду"...
@franceinfo Soucis ! Les droits de douanes (& Taxes douanières ; "tariffs" in english) sont négociés lors de la vente (ex : "franco de port") : c'est donc soit l'importateur (acheteur) qui à les droits & paie les taxes, soit c'est l'exportateur (vendeur) qui paie.
1/n
1/n
@franceinfo J'ai l'impression qu'ici, seules les sociétés Américaines "importatrices" donc (acheteuses et/ou responsables du transport) peuvent demander un remboursement.
Les sociétés FR "exportatrices" (vendeuses et/ou responsables du transporteur) ne seraient donc pas remboursées ?!
2/n
Les sociétés FR "exportatrices" (vendeuses et/ou responsables du transporteur) ne seraient donc pas remboursées ?!
2/n
@franceinfo In fine, dans ces 2 cas (par trump ou l'administration étatsunienne), les USA nous baiseraient alors encore la gueule, sans parler alors qu'il s'agirait ici clairement de concurrence déloyale (car à l'encontre du "libre-échange/Libéralisme") !
3/4
3/4
What if Hollywood's next massive blockbuster was made by one person?
A Cannes-awarded director made this 22-minute AI film in 7 days.
He gave me the FULL breakdown.
Let me show you how he made this in 9 simple steps: 🧵👇
A Cannes-awarded director made this 22-minute AI film in 7 days.
He gave me the FULL breakdown.
Let me show you how he made this in 9 simple steps: 🧵👇
Phase 1: Narrative & Strategy
Malik Zenger, a Cannes-winning music video director, joined the Higgsfield Originals team just three weeks prior with no previous AI experience.
He brought a traditional "old school" filmmaking lens to the project, focusing on narrative depth and realistic cinematography rather than just "cool" AI shots.
His goal was to prove that AI tools can deliver the same emotional weight as a high-budget live-action series like Game of Thrones.
Malik Zenger, a Cannes-winning music video director, joined the Higgsfield Originals team just three weeks prior with no previous AI experience.
He brought a traditional "old school" filmmaking lens to the project, focusing on narrative depth and realistic cinematography rather than just "cool" AI shots.
His goal was to prove that AI tools can deliver the same emotional weight as a high-budget live-action series like Game of Thrones.
The AI Writer’s Room
Despite having existing assets, Malik took the team back to a "writer's room" phase to develop a real screenplay.
Using Claude as a collaborative partner, he workshopped a revenge story that centered on a complex relationship between two brothers.
This shift turned a one-dimensional "action" piece into a full narrative season arc, complete with value shifts and character secrets.
Despite having existing assets, Malik took the team back to a "writer's room" phase to develop a real screenplay.
Using Claude as a collaborative partner, he workshopped a revenge story that centered on a complex relationship between two brothers.
This shift turned a one-dimensional "action" piece into a full narrative season arc, complete with value shifts and character secrets.
Você alavanca 10x achando que vai ficar rico mais rápido.
Matematicamente, está fazendo o oposto.
Em 1956, um engenheiro da Bell Labs chamado John Kelly Jr. resolveu um problema que ninguém tinha formalizado: qual é o tamanho ÓTIMO de uma aposta?
A resposta mudou cassinos, hedge funds e mercados de previsão. 🧵
Matematicamente, está fazendo o oposto.
Em 1956, um engenheiro da Bell Labs chamado John Kelly Jr. resolveu um problema que ninguém tinha formalizado: qual é o tamanho ÓTIMO de uma aposta?
A resposta mudou cassinos, hedge funds e mercados de previsão. 🧵
O Kelly Criterion é uma fórmula que maximiza o crescimento geométrico do seu capital no longo prazo.
f* = (p·b - q) / b
Onde p = probabilidade de acerto, b = payoff, q = 1-p.
Exemplo: trade com 55% de acerto e payoff 2:1.
Kelly diz: aloque 32.5% do capital.
Não 5%. Não 80%. Exatamente 32.5%.
Acima disso, seu retorno esperado CAI. Não é conservadorismo — é teorema.
f* = (p·b - q) / b
Onde p = probabilidade de acerto, b = payoff, q = 1-p.
Exemplo: trade com 55% de acerto e payoff 2:1.
Kelly diz: aloque 32.5% do capital.
Não 5%. Não 80%. Exatamente 32.5%.
Acima disso, seu retorno esperado CAI. Não é conservadorismo — é teorema.
Simulei 500 apostas com 200 trajetórias diferentes.
Full Kelly (32.5%): capital mediano vai a ²⁴.
Half Kelly (16%): capital mediano vai a ¹⁵. Menos, mas com metade da volatilidade.
2× Kelly (65%): RUÍNA TOTAL. O capital converge pra zero.
Não é opinião. É Monte Carlo com 100.000 dados simulados.
Quem aposta o dobro do ótimo não ganha o dobro — perde tudo.
Full Kelly (32.5%): capital mediano vai a ²⁴.
Half Kelly (16%): capital mediano vai a ¹⁵. Menos, mas com metade da volatilidade.
2× Kelly (65%): RUÍNA TOTAL. O capital converge pra zero.
Não é opinião. É Monte Carlo com 100.000 dados simulados.
Quem aposta o dobro do ótimo não ganha o dobro — perde tudo.
NEW @CSETGeorgetown + @emergingtechobs piece!
Does China's access to US semiconductor technology help the PLA develop and deploy military AI?
After 3 years reading thousands of PLA procurement docs, @sambresnick and I say yes.
Here’s how, and why it matters:
🧵/13
Does China's access to US semiconductor technology help the PLA develop and deploy military AI?
After 3 years reading thousands of PLA procurement docs, @sambresnick and I say yes.
Here’s how, and why it matters:
🧵/13
In the piece, we identify two mechanisms through which US compute can enable the PLA’s adoption of AI systems:
1. The PLA is procuring AI models trained on U.S. compute or distilled from U.S. models.
2. The PLA is acquiring advanced U.S. chips.
As @HouseForeignGOP and @HouseForeign debate 20 measures related to restrictions on China’s ability to access US compute and AI tech on Wednesday, we offer three key takeaways for US policymakers from our research:
1. Greater access to advanced U.S. compute will likely strengthen China’s military AI capabilities.
2. The PLA will benefit from advances in China’s civilian technology sector, including in AI.
3. The PLA’s adoption of advanced AI capabilities may be used to undermine U.S. military advantages.
2/13
1. The PLA is procuring AI models trained on U.S. compute or distilled from U.S. models.
2. The PLA is acquiring advanced U.S. chips.
As @HouseForeignGOP and @HouseForeign debate 20 measures related to restrictions on China’s ability to access US compute and AI tech on Wednesday, we offer three key takeaways for US policymakers from our research:
1. Greater access to advanced U.S. compute will likely strengthen China’s military AI capabilities.
2. The PLA will benefit from advances in China’s civilian technology sector, including in AI.
3. The PLA’s adoption of advanced AI capabilities may be used to undermine U.S. military advantages.
2/13
First, the PLA is procuring AI models trained on US compute.
Our analysis shows the PLA is actively adopting commercially available LLMs from DeepSeek, Alibaba, iFlytek, and others.
Many of these models—including DeepSeek's—were trained on US-designed chips.
3/13
Our analysis shows the PLA is actively adopting commercially available LLMs from DeepSeek, Alibaba, iFlytek, and others.
Many of these models—including DeepSeek's—were trained on US-designed chips.
3/13
Just out of curiosity, I started digging through this year's "mass shootings," as counted by GVA.
Obviously, I take issue with their parameters. But what we should ALL take issue with are the clear patterns we see of suspects and circumstances.
Let's start on Jan 1. 📜
Obviously, I take issue with their parameters. But what we should ALL take issue with are the clear patterns we see of suspects and circumstances.
Let's start on Jan 1. 📜
Jan. 1 - 4 people are shot during a 2am shootout at a nightclub. Both suspects were already out on bond - one for making terroristic threats with a machine gun, and the other for TWO counts of murder.
kingfish1935.blogspot.com/2026/01/catch-…;
wlbt.com/2026/01/23/man…
kingfish1935.blogspot.com/2026/01/catch-…;
wlbt.com/2026/01/23/man…
Jan. 1 - 5 people shot around 12:30am during a large house party at a short-term rental attended by over 100 young adults. No suspects arrested because most people fled before police arrived or were uncooperative.
click2houston.com/news/local/202…;
khou.com/article/news/c…
click2houston.com/news/local/202…;
khou.com/article/news/c…
El PSOE ha dissenyat la regularització perquè sigui irreversible. Cap moció de censura, cap llei orgànica, cap tribunal podrà revertir permisos individuals ja concedits. Els drets administratius reconeguts estan protegits constitucionalment. Dins el marc espanyol i europeu, no hi ha sortida legal possible. 1/6
Per decret, converteixen una infracció administrativa en la via per accedir als nostres serveis públics i al sufragi. Un canvi irreversible del Demos, una compra descarada de vots; un acte profundament antidemocràtic. Una nova classe social agraïda, servil i depenent de l'estat 2/6
Ho fan a les portes de la revolució de la IA i la robòtica, quan no sabem si hi haurà feina per a la població actual. Amb els sistemes públics ja al límit. Afegir milions de nous beneficiaris, la majoria sense cap formació, és una irresponsabilitat històrica. 3/6
A Argentina é o país que melhor conheço, depois do Brasil. Estive ali em todos os governos desde Cristina e duas vezes durante o governo Milei. Nunca voltei para a Argentina e a encontrei melhor. Pelo contrário. Mas NADA se compara com o que Milei fez nesses dois anos. +
A sua política econômica não é nada diferente do liberalismo argentino. É a mesma da ditadura, de Menem, de De La Rúa e de Macri, que foi quem começou essa tragédia ao tomar US$ 41 bi com o FMI. Um misto de ortodoxia, câmbio sobrevalorizado e abertura comercial. +
Mas ela difere na intensidade, que reduz o Estado a um intermediador financeiro e ente repressor, e no contexto. A Argentina, hoje, não tem mais gordura para queimar. +
Måndagsrörelsens möte #206 på ett riktigt soligt Norrmalmstorg leddes av Fredrik och Gunnar Hökmark.
Internationellt är det stökigt, i Washington är det förvirrat. Iran och Ryssland är allierade. På slagfältet har Ukraina stärkts på senare tid.
Internationellt är det stökigt, i Washington är det förvirrat. Iran och Ryssland är allierade. På slagfältet har Ukraina stärkts på senare tid.
Fredrik var OSSE valobservatör i Debrecen, så nära gränsen att han kunde äta lunch i Rumänien. Under Magyars avslutande stormöte i den staden skanderade tiotusentals "Ryssland ut".
Nu kan EU förhoppningsvis ge Ukraina det utlovade finansiella stödet.
Nu kan EU förhoppningsvis ge Ukraina det utlovade finansiella stödet.
Repower Uktaine arrangerar en välgörenhetsmiddag på Nordiska museet på lördag.
billetto.se/en/e/repower-c…
billetto.se/en/e/repower-c…
Nîmes - Nemausus - The colonia Nemausus was founded in 27 BC by Augustus. During the Augustan era the city got its walls, a forum with temples, Nymphaem, and later in the Flavian era an amphitheatre. Today the city still has many Roman (and some other) remains - Thread 🧵 🧵🧵
Augustan gate - 16 BC - in and outgoing gates for carts and people in foot. Two bulls head decorate the large arches while the smaller arches are topped by an empty space where presumably statues were located
The amphitheatre was built in the Flavian period simultaneously with the Colosseum in Rome. Compared to the slightly older Arles, the building has fixed some structural problems with stone vaulting in the galleries. Two galleries and an attic create a space for 20.000 people!
How to Think Like a Farmer, Not a Hunter:
(A thread that will change the way you think)
(A thread that will change the way you think)
Most people think like hunters - chasing quick wins and immediate results.
Farmers think differently.
They plant, tend, wait, and harvest.
Here's why you need to adopt the farmer mindset:
Farmers think differently.
They plant, tend, wait, and harvest.
Here's why you need to adopt the farmer mindset:
Hunter Mindset:
- Seeks immediate results
- Chases the next opportunity
- Focuses on short-term gains
- Gives up when things get tough
- Lives in constant urgency
- Seeks immediate results
- Chases the next opportunity
- Focuses on short-term gains
- Gives up when things get tough
- Lives in constant urgency