🚨 SP500 Retour à la Situation d' Avant Guerre.
Le retour à la situation d'avant Guerre a été spectaculaire et réalisé en 10 séances seulement.
Il ne faut jamais être Contrarian dans les changements de Trend. J'applique systématiquement ma Stratégie/Mode d'emploi indépendamment
de mes convictions quelque soit le sens du mouvement du TREND.
Maintenant ma conviction sur cette Hausse est très différente de celle de la Hausse d'Avril 2025 qui était parfaitement compréhensible.
🚨Cette Hausse n'emporte pas ma conviction et je vais rappeler ici pourquoi avec
des éléments les plus objectifs possibles :
▪Le Conflit est toujours en cours.
▪Le Détroit d'Ormuz a une navigabilité restreinte voire nulle.
▪Le Baril de pétrole physique vaut sur le Marché spot : 145 $.
▪la Macroéconomie montre un ralentissement de l'économie et
New research result: we use Claude to make fully autonomous progress on scalable oversight research, as measured by performance gap recovered (PGR).
Claude iterates on a number of different techniques and ends up significantly outperforming human researchers for $18k in credits.
Automating alignment research (AAR) can be bottom-up (researchers automate more and more of their existing work), or top-down (we carve up specific subproblems for AI to solve).
Most of our work is the former (e.g. using Claude for coding), but this work is about the latter.
We frame progress on scalable oversight similar to weak-to-strong generalization: what fraction of the performance of a strong model trained on “golden” data can be recovered when training the strong model only using a weak supervision signal?
Roger Froikin @rlefraim wrote, "The Supreme Court allows a hearing demanding that the government fire Itamar Ben-Gvir.
Not only is this lawsuit meaningless, but it's dangerous to democracy.
1)
Ben-Gvir is not an employee of the Prime Minister or the Cabinet. He is a member of the government cabinet and his part, elected by the people, is an integral part of the coalition.
Ben-Gvir wasn't hired, so he can't be fired.
2)
It makes sense to every person except those who do not understand the system in the country israel, or who choose to ignore the law because of their power.
3)
Roger Froikin @rlefraim wrote, "I'm trying to understand things about "justice" in Israel.
1. How can the President of the Supreme Court be "self-appointed" while breaking the law and procedure, and nobody says "no".
1)
2. How can the court, in a democracy, be governed by a system so undemocratic that it is more similar to the one in India, Old Soviet Union or World War II Germany than in a democratic country.
2)
3. How can the government, which hires a general prosecutor to advise the government, not fire a person who stops doing his job and hurts justice.
3)
🚨BREAKING: HUGE German Court Just Dropped a Bombshell on BioNTech
Rogert & Ulbrich secured a partial judgment against BioNTech before the Regional Court of Aurich, Germany. They have ordered BioNTech to hand over 32 critical data points on the Comirnaty mRNA vaccine, including exact lipid ratios, DNA contamination levels, spike protein production duration, organ biodistribution, full side-effect reports, and more.
No more hiding behind “proprietary” excuses.
This partial judgment (Az. 5 O 1106/24) forces full transparency for ongoing vaccine injury lawsuits.
The list is crystal clear (see image). Every point the public and injured parties have demanded for years is now court-ordered.
🚨 The EXACT 29 Data Points the German Court Just Forced BioNTech to Disclose
1Exact lipid composition: What is the precise mixing ratio of the four lipids used?
2Integrity of the mRNA: What portion of the mRNA was intact and what portion fragmented?
3DNA contamination: Information on residues of plasmid DNA from the manufacturing process.
4Identity of all excipients: A complete list of all added substances and their purity.
5Batch variability: Why do the damage reports differ so drastically between different production numbers?
6Stability of the mRNA: Documentation on degradation products and their potential toxicity.
7Organ biodistribution: Exactly where do the particles (LNPs) accumulate in the human body?
8Duration of spike production: Over what period do the cells produce the protein after injection?
9Quantification of the spike protein: How high is the concentration of the produced protein in the bloodstream?
10Cell specificity: Into which cell types does the mRNA preferentially enter?
11Barrier penetration: Data on passage of the blood-brain barrier and the placenta.
12Comprehensive suspicion reports: All reports of side effects available to the manufacturer worldwide.
13Severity analysis: Details on the intensity and duration of the reported health damages.
14Cardiovascular risks: Specific data on myocarditis, heart attacks, and strokes.
15Neurological disorders: Documentation on paralysis, nerve damage, and autoimmune processes.
16Death case documentation: All reports in temporal proximity to the administration of the vaccine.
17Long-term toxicity: Safety data from observational studies over a period of several years.
18Individual patient data: Anonymized individual data of the study participants from the original approval phases.
19Exclusion analyses: Why were certain participants removed from the final study evaluation?
20Placebo unblinding: Why was the control group vaccinated prematurely, complicating long-term comparisons?
21Infection transmission: Was there scientific proof of protection for third parties available at market launch?
22Interaction studies: Findings on interactions with other medications or vaccines.
23Warning history: From what point in time did the manufacturer have information on specific risks?
24Authority correspondence: Complete disclosure of communication with the PEI and the EMA.
25Safety reports (PSURs): All regular status reports submitted to the supervisory authorities.
26Liability provisions: According to the contracts, who bears the financial responsibility for damages incurred?
27Reverse transcription: Studies on the possible integration of mRNA sequences into human DNA.
28Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE): Risk assessment of a possible worsening of infections.
29.Reproductive toxicity: Data on the impact on fertility and the female cycle.
30.Oncogenic potential: Studies or reports on the acceleration of cancer diseases or reactivation of dormant tumours.
31Immunosuppression: Data on the temporary weakening of the body’s own immune defence after vaccination.
32Quality control: Who carried out the detailed release testing of the individual batches and what defects were found?
This is the complete, court-ordered list from Regional court in Aurich.
A German law firm has obtained something significant.
Rogert & Ulbrich secured a partial judgment against BioNTech before the Regional Court of Aurich, a court order compelling the manufacturer to provide comprehensive disclosure across 32 specific points of inquiry. This is not a demand letter. It is a judicial order. The court has determined that this information must be produced.
The questions the court has ordered answered are the questions the injured have been asking for five years.
The precise lipid composition of the formulation. The integrity of the mRNA at the point of administration, what percentage was intact and what percentage was fragmented. The extent of plasmid DNA contamination from the manufacturing process. The complete list of excipients and their purity. The reason for dramatic variability in adverse event rates between different production batches.
The biodistribution data, exactly where the lipid nanoparticles accumulate in the human body. The duration of spike protein production after injection. The concentration of spike protein in the bloodstream. Which cell types the mRNA preferentially enters. Whether the LNPs cross the blood-brain barrier and the placenta.
The complete worldwide adverse event reports available to the manufacturer. The severity and duration of reported harms. The cardiovascular data, myocarditis, heart attacks, strokes. The neurological documentation, paralysis, nerve damage, autoimmune processes. The death cases reported in temporal proximity to administration.
The long-term toxicity data. The individual patient data from the original approval trials. The exclusion analyses, why certain participants were removed from the final study evaluation. The premature unblinding of the control group that made long-term comparison impossible.
The communications between BioNTech and the regulatory authorities. The safety reports submitted to the PEI and EMA. The liability provisions in the government contracts. The reverse transcription studies. The ADE risk assessment. The reproductive toxicity data.
This is what was always owed to the public before a single dose was administered.
A German regional court has now said so in writing.
The information has been kept locked away while people were mandated, while the injured were dismissed, while the data that would have informed genuine consent was withheld from the people whose bodies were at stake.
Stell dir vor, du baust über Jahrzehnte ein Haus auf dem Fundament von Gott, Familie und Vaterland auf – und dann reißt dein eigener Bauherr die Statik ein, nur um einen billigen Lacher im Netz zu ernten.
Genau das hat Donald Trump getan.
Was Vance als „Witz“ verkauft, ist für die globale Rechte kein Kollateralschaden, sondern der Moment, in dem die Maske der Werteverteidiger endgültig fällt.
Hier ist der Thread, der das Ausmaß dieses strategischen Selbstmords in nackten Zahlen offenlegt.
1/6 Wir müssen verstehen: Die weltweite Rechte siegt dort, wo sie sich als letzte Schutzmacht gegen den moralischen Verfall inszeniert.
Von Warschau bis Brasília ist das Kreuz das Symbol dieses Widerstands.
Doch mit dem Jesus-Vergleich hat Trump dieses Symbol geschändet. Er hat das Heilige zur Requisite eines egomanischen Wahlkampfs degradiert. Das ist kein Witz, das ist politische Sabotage an der eigenen Basis.
2/6 Die Zahlen lügen nicht: Wir reden von 1,42 Milliarden Katholiken und fast einer Milliarde Protestanten. Für diese Menschen ist Jesus keine Comicfigur. Wenn Trump sich als messianischer Heiler inszeniert, bricht er mit dem Kernwert der christlichen Rechten:
der Demut vor Gott.
Er hat nicht die Linken provoziert – er hat Milliarden potenzielle Wähler der Mitte und des konservativen Lagers tief in ihrer Seele gedemütigt.
Fotografías que retratan la gira comercial encabezada por el vicepresidente Julio Argentino Roca (h) por diversos países europeos entre enero y mayo de 1933, en los que mantuvo reuniones con diversas figuras de la política europea como el presidente francés Albert Lebrun, el español Niceto Alcalá-Zamora, Alberto I de Bélgica, el primer ministro británico Ramsay MacDonald y Eduardo de Windsor, Príncipe de Gales.
La representación argentina estuvo encabezada por Roca y contó con la participación de figuras políticas, diplomáticas y técnicas de primer nivel. Integraron la delegación el diputado Miguel Ángel Cárcano, el doctor Guillermo F. Leguizamón, vinculado a empresas británicas radicadas en el país, y el embajador argentino en el Reino Unido, Manuel Malbrán. Como secretarios actuaron Toribio Ayerza y Adolfo Orma (h). El equipo se completó con un destacado cuerpo de asesores técnicos, entre los que se encontraba Raúl Prebisch, colaborador de los ministros de Hacienda y Agricultura, Alberto Hueyo y Antonio De Tomaso, respectivamente, así como los funcionarios del Ministerio de Agricultura Carlos Brebbia y Aníbal Fernández Beyro. A la delegación se sumaron además representantes de las Fuerzas Armadas: el general Basilio Pertiné y el coronel Alberto de Oliveira Cézar como agregados militares, y el capitán de navío Francisco Steward en calidad de agregado naval.
El viaje de Roca a Europa tuvo como motivo principal la firma de un nuevo acuerdo comercial con el Reino Unido que garantizase la exportación de carne enfriada a aquel país, luego de los derechos de importación y las limitaciones a las exportaciones a los países no miembros de la Commonwealth luego de la Conferencia de Ottawa de 1932. Pero más allá de eso, Roca y sus asesores negociaron nuevos pactos comerciales con España, Francia, Países Bajos y Bélgica. Al mismo tiempo, el veterano político conservador Exequiel Ramos Mexía (antiguo ministro en las presidencias de Julio Argentino Roca, José Figueroa Alcorta y Roque Sáenz Peña) realizaba un nuevo acuerdo comercial con el Reino de Italia, luego de ser enviado por el gobierno nacional como embajador extraordinario.
Nem vou entrar no mérito da pesquisa. Minha questão é de outra (des)ordem.
O uol e, (in) consequentemente, a folha deram destaque à futura.
No uol: "Flávio Bolsonaro lidera contra Lula em eventual 2º turno".
Na folha: "Flávio tem quase 6 pontos à frente de Lula no 2º turno.
+
Já disse e repito. Há seis meses da eleição é um despautério ficar dando destaque para um cenário dum hipotético 2º turno.
Alguém pode argumentar que, jornalisticamente, seria A NOTÍCIA porque o desafiante lidera.
Porém, esta tergiversação não se mantém de pé.
Vem comigo?
Pois bem, digo, pois mal.
Nesta mesma pesquisa futura, e repito, nem entro no (des)mérito da referida, a vantagem de flavinho desmaio contra Lula era de mais de 8 pontos percentuais em março, mais exatamente, 8,3 pp.
Agora, a diferença cai abaixo de 6, mais precisamente 5,4.
+
🧵 Geert Wilders over Israël: wat zegt hij, en wat doet hij? (1/7)
2/7 Wilders' steun aan Israël is geen buitenlandpolitiek — het is ideologie. Voor Wilders zijn zijn eigen strijd en die van Israël één en dezelfde: het gevecht van Israël tegen Hamas is voor hem het evenbeeld van zijn strijd tegen immigratie en de islam. De
3/7 "In die strijd moeten wij onvoorwaardelijk achter Israël staan", zei hij. (Pvv) Onvoorwaardelijk. Zonder voorbehoud voor internationaal recht, burgerslachtoffers of oorlogsrecht.
Dat woord deed hij niet terug.
1/15 The world feels increasingly chaotic.
Media manipulates, markets run blind, and the noise is deafening.
But what if all this disorder is simply a distraction from the real battle?
The most important war today is for your MIND.
Time to break the illusion. 🧵👇
2/15 We’ve been trained to look externally for validation to make decisions.
But what happens when the external world is corrupted?
When feedback mechanisms break and incentives misalign, the System stops serving the majority and only serves the few
3/15 MEDIA IS MANIPULATED
Is mainstream media a trustworthy source of truth? No.
It has been manipulated to serve the few in power, prioritizing gaslighting over truth.
Thus people are flocking to decentralized platforms - the truth resonates. You know it when you hear it.
Canonical trade models are static. We compare LR steady states. But supply chains are sticky. Contracts, relationships, search, logistics, and sunk costs all slow down adjustment. Empirically, trade elasticities are small in the short run and much larger in the long run.
To rationalize this fact, we build a dynamic Ricardian trade model where firms are forward-looking but can switch suppliers only occasionally.
When they can switch, they think about today’s costs and future costs.
This is Jonathan Yeo.
He painted the satanic portrait of child sex trafficKING sausage fingers Charles III.
Notice he had to put in the Monarch butterfly 🦋.
#MKULTRA
🧵
Så tragiskt att kommunpolitiker aktivt förstör egna skolors förutsättningar att lyckas genom att bjuda in riskkapitalkoncerner som IES. Jag föreläste i Norrtälje för 4 år sedan och berättade för nämndens ordförande (L) att detta kommer ske. Han sa "nej". norrteljetidning.se/norrtalje/komm…
Jag berättade om vad revisorerna på KPMG kommit fram till sker när koncernerna etablerar sig. 100 % av intäkten försvinner på de kommunala skolorna när eleverna lämnar men 90 % av kostnaderna finns kvar.
Jag berättade om hur skolsegregationen växer när skolkoncernerna expanderar eftersom främst föräldrar med eftergymnasial utbildning och inte nyanlända väljer till exempel IES.
🧵 Chris Stoffer (SGP) over Israël: de balans opgemaakt. (1/7)
2/7 Stoffer noemt steun aan Israël een Bijbelse opdracht. Niet als politieke keuze, maar als geloofsovertuiging. Dat verklaart veel van wat volgt.
3/7 Tienduizenden doden in Gaza. Stoffer: "Het doet pijn als je de beelden ziet."
Vervolgens: geen veroordeling, geen staakt-het-vuren, geen embargo. Wel: de SGP stemde tégen élke motie die het geweld wilde beëindigen.
1) Folks, reviewing the sweep of history---and I admit, I'm no expert in Chinese history---I can't find anyone in all of history who has for the most part peacefully so completely encircled and cut off an enemy state as Trump has done with Chy-na.
2) It is historical, it is mind blowing. Reagan came close with how he isolated and bankrupted the evil commie Soviets--tricky because they still had allies such as Chy-na.
3) But this is a Zulu-style bull-buffalo encirclement.
4) First, he neutralized Venezuela, #1 in the world in oil reserves. (No one talks about off shore Latin American oil, which is massive, but we have that too).
5) When you combine Venezuela & US oil, which is the largest PRODUCER in the world, you've already squeezed Chy-na.
🧵🚨 THREAD: Charlie Kirk was assassinated at Utah Valley University. Within TWO HOURS, leaders of 7 "bridge-building" organizations assembled on a conference call. Why so fast? Because UVU was THEIR campus. 🚨
This is Maury Giles, incoming CEO of Braver Angels, admitting on camera at the National Conference on Citizenship:
"Within two hours of the assassination, a group of us, all Utahns, we gathered on a call. We'd become friends over the last 5 years through our work in the community. And we also happen to be leaders in seven different national organizations that work in civic renewal."
Two hours. Seven national organizations. But this wasn't a spontaneous reaction to a tragedy. This was a network protecting its home turf. Because UVU wasn't just the place where Kirk was shot. It was the institutional center of the entire bridge-building / Dignity Index apparatus... and had been for years.
And the kicker?
These seven national organizations don't hide their own intent: replicate color revolution tactics in the United States. And, yes, that includes MWEG - Mormon Women for Ethical Government.
I have the receipts... they all admitted this on camera.
As always, patience as I pull together the thread. 👇
MWEG on their own GROW video:
"UVU has sponsored for us for the past three years so that we can have it there on their campus."
UVU SPONSORED their annual conference for three consecutive years. UVU is not a neutral venue in this story. It's a partner.
A speaker on MWEG's own Civics Learning Week video from 2023 admits she got a faculty position at UVU partly BECAUSE she was involved with Braver Angels... the same organization whose incoming CEO organized the two-hour call after Kirk was killed.
1/ The Russian army has been taken over by an organised crime syndicate, says a Russian journalist. The mass recruitment of criminals now means that crimes and corruption of all sorts – murder, torture, extortion, prostitution, drug and alcohol smuggling – are now routine. ⬇️
2/ Sergey Komkov writes that organised crime has become "the most widespread social virus in the Special Military Operation zone, capable of burying virtually the entire combat capability of our Russian army."
3/ He says that an "Organised Thieves' Den", which he refers to with the acronym OVM, "has long been in full swing in many dugouts and personnel quarters of our armed forces in the SVO [Special Military Operation]."
🚨 CPI pede indiciamento de Moraes, Toffoli, Gilmar e do próprio PGR num único relatório
Pela primeira vez, uma CPI brasileira pediu o indiciamento de ministros do STF.
Alessandro Vieira assinou um documento que inclui três ministros e o PGR Paulo Gonet, todos com conexões ao Banco Master.
A votação é hoje no Senado.
O que o relatório diz sobre cada um? 👇🏼
1️⃣ R$ 80 milhões para a família do ministro
A mulher de Moraes, Viviane Barci, recebeu R$ 80 milhões do Banco Master, de R$ 129 milhões contratados.
O relatório classifica isso como "dependência financeira substancial" entre a família do magistrado e o banco investigado.
Pelo CPP, juiz está impedido quando cônjuge é "diretamente interessado no feito".
O relatório trata como impedimento absoluto e insanável, que independe de comprovação de prejuízo.
2️⃣ O jatinho de Toffoli com o advogado do investigado preso
Depois de ser sorteado relator do caso Master, Toffoli viajou de jatinho com Augusto de Arruda Botelho, advogado de Luiz Antonio Bull, diretor de Compliance do Banco Master e investigado no mesmo processo.
O avião foi cedido por um empresário com interesses no setor financeiro.
O relatório aponta que a conduta "compromete de forma irreparável a aparência de imparcialidade que a função exige".