Vamos a analizar las variables del bloqueo ordenado por Trump. Sabemos que es para todos los buques que pagan peaje a Irán, pero también que hasta ahora solo pasaban los buques que pagaban tributo a los iranies. En consecuencia, nadie más va a pasar hasta nuevo aviso. Sale hilo
Si el objetivo es cortar el ingreso a Irán, el bloqueo va en la dirección correcta porque la situación implicaba una salida de 1,3/1.5 millones de barriles diarios. La mayor parte iba a China, pero el resto a India, Pakistán, Malasia y se prometía a Europa, Japón y Corea del Sur
A Irán le quedan exportar su petróleo por las salidas alternativas en los puertos de Chabahar y Bandar-e-Jask, ubicados en el Golfo de Omán. Pero su capacidad real es de 600.000 mbd, o quizás la mitad según otras fuentes, por lo que no son una solución real para sacar su crudo
@serbestiyetweb Katolik Kilisesi öğretisinde “haklı savaş”(Just War Theory) anlayışı, özellikle Augustinus ve Thomas Aquinas tarafından sistemleştirilmiştir. Amaç, savaşın tamamen keyfi ve sınırsız bir şiddet aracı olmasını engellemektir.
Katolik öğretisine göre bir savaşın “haklı” sayılabilmesi
@serbestiyetweb için temel ön koşullar (jus ad bellum) şunlardır:
1. Haklı Sebep (Just Cause)
Savaş ancak ciddi bir haksızlığa karşı yapılabilir.
Örneğin: saldırıya uğrama, ağır insan hakları ihlallerini durdurma.
2. Meşru Otorite (Legitimate Authority)
Savaşı ilan eden otorite, meşru ve
@serbestiyetweb tanınmış bir yönetim olmalıdır.
Bireyler veya gruplar kendi başına savaş başlatamaz.
3. Doğru Niyet (Right Intention)
Amaç intikam, çıkar ya da yayılmacılık değil; adaleti sağlamak ve barışı yeniden kurmak olmalıdır.
4. Son Çare (Last Resort)
Diplomasi, müzakere, yaptırım gibi
1/ U.S. VP JD Vance and former Canadian PM Stephen Harper are meddling in Hungary's elections. 🇭🇺
The goal? Prop up Viktor Orbán's 16-year grip on power through the IDU.
#HungaryElection #Orban #IDU #DemocracyWatch
2/ JD Vance’s direct campaigning:
On april 7, 2026, u.s. vice president JD Vance visited Budapest to personally boost Orbán’s campaign, just days before the april 12 vote. Vance called Orbán a “fantastic man” and urged Hungarians to stand with him. 🇭🇺🗳️🤝
Critics, including some within the EU, have accused Vance of interfering in Hungary’s domestic democratic process while simultaneously accusing the EU of the same. Vance has praised Orbán’s crackdown on universities as a "model" for the U.S.🎓🇺🇸
🌍Mundo ✍️ Dan La Botz
Cuba hoy: entre el colapso energético y la presión máxima. La isla enfrenta una encrucijada histórica sin precedentes. 🇨🇺📉 #Cuba #Geopolítica #Crisis2026
No se puede entender la realidad cubana sin analizar a GAESA: el holding militar que controla los flujos de divisas y el 37% del PIB. Un "Estado dentro del Estado" que define el destino económico de la isla. 🏦🪖 #Economía #Cuba #Transparencia
La verdadera libertad de Cuba no vendrá de hegemonías externas ni de dogmas unipartidistas, sino de la soberanía de sus trabajadores y el respeto a sus derechos civiles. Es hora de una nueva gramática política. ✊🗳️ #Democracia #Cuba #DerechosHumanos
Beden sağlığı için önemli ve gerekli 5 besin öğesi:
📌Magnezyum: Özellikle kas, sinir ve enzim fonksiyonları için gereklidir. Eksikliği aritmi gibi kalp problemleri, diyabet, hipertansiyon, osteoporoz, bulantı, uykusuzluk, sinirlilik, kas krampları ve depresyon ile ilişkilidir.
Parasempatik sinir sistemini uyararak, vücut ve beyninizin rahatlamasını sağlar.
Aşağıdaki çalışmaya göre: Günlük 400 mg Magnezyum; sinir sistemi koordinasyonunu sağlar, huzursuzluğu önler, konsantre olmanızı sağlar, sinir iyileşmesine yardımcı olur.
İşlenmiş gıdalar, fast food, trans yağ tüketen çocuk-gençlerde Magnezyumun yanı sıra; B, C vitamini, Folik asit, Manganez eksikliği oluşur. Bu kişiler daha agresif olur. Şiddete meyli artar. Serotonin üretimi düşer.
Güçlü egzersiz yapanlarda da magnezyum ihtiyacı %10-20 artar.
Yhdysvaltain kongressin oikeusasiain komitea kirjoitti varoituskirjeen EU:n eräälle sensuurikalifille, eli Henna Virkkuselle juuri Unkarin eilisten vaalien alla ..
".. Oikeusasiain valiokunnan valvova komitea on osoittanut, että Euroopan komissio painostaa säännöllisesti suurimpia verkossa toimivia alustoja muuttamaan sääntöjään sallitusta sisällöstä ja sensuroimaan sisältöä poliittisesti puolueellisella tavalla ennen suuria vaaleja .."
Lundi 13 avril 1964
#LettreÀAnne 53 🧵
« Pour la 1re fois, je sors de moi. »
François écrit à Anne depuis octobre 1962. Au début, ses lettres étaient timides et cérémonieuses : il abandonne ce ton, parle de lui, de son passé et, pour se faire aimer, se montre tel qu’il est. 1/3
Seul «au milieu des passions et des intérêts» dans un isolement orgueilleux «où ni la joie ni la paix ne venaient plus me visiter».
En juillet 1938 à Marie-Louise, avec + d’assurance et moins de maturité, il avoue qu’il se dissimule aux indifférents et ne se révèle qu’à elle. 2/3
C’est une constante de sa personnalité : le premier mouvement de timidité et de refus, la crainte de se découvrir, surtout la conviction que la composante principale de l’amour, c’est la confiance et la communication qui permettent de trouver la joie et la paix. 3/3
Isn’t that London is now a hellhole, actually it is very nice in many parts - is more that it is undergoing a process of (avoidable) ‘enshittification’ where quality of life on certain metrics gets slowly worse over time. So easy to tolerate but things are still worse than before
London in the summer, wow. And maybe even you man clapping some naija or argentinian or punjabi ting you don’t even mind the real big change you’re having too much fun and who can blame you! But fact remains many QoL metrics degrading even if people often too hysterical about it!
Quaraisha Yeasmin vs Election commission of India: WEST BENGAL SIR APPEAL TRIBUNAL ISSUE
Adv: In some cases Election commission has not even placed the orders before Justice Sivanganam. ECI is not aware of what's happening... Appeals are not being taken up. Let freezing date be extended.
CJI: go before the appellate tribunal and say all this
Adv: If I am not allowed to argue then what's the use? But will appeal be decided within a time frame or keep extending?
CJI: so you want us to put the former chief Justices and judges.. under pressure .
Adv; Those who have addhar and passport.. will be allowed that's what this court has held
Justice Bagchi: Calcutta HC Chief has informed manner and mode of appeals have been formulated. It has started hearing from today. We cannot say hearing x appeals from today
Sr Adv Naidu for ECI: will have always placed all records. Now we are blamed for helping. There are 30 lakh appeals.
#westbengalsir #SupremeCourt
Justice Bagchi: Unless and until there is enormous amount of voters excluded or materially affect the election...the election cannot be cancelled. If 10 percent does not vote and winning margin is more than 10 percent then..
CJI: only academic excercise
Justice Bagchi: if it's less than 5 percent then we have to apply our mind. Earlier a candidate was given primacy before the appellate tribunal because a candidate cannot be denied the right to contest. Please don't think the question is not in our mind that what about those who are excluded !
Justice Bagchi: if an objector files an appeal against inclusion. Then again that person also has to be removed. So we had judicial officers and then appellate tribunals.
Sr Adv Naidu: the court was not even inclined to have the appellate tribunal firstly.
Justice Bagchi: we have permitted the constitutional authority to go into purity of electoral roll issue. Your original ECI notification on SIR did not touch 2002 list.. but your logical discrepancy list rejection reasons are 2002 list etc. your notification touched people who relates to people in the 2002 list. 2002 list is the benchmark. See in your final list you did not delete the 2002 list members. When Bihar SIR was argued, submissions of ECI was unequivocal that 2002 list members need not given any document. Please see your written submissions in Bihar case. You had said 2002 electorate need not give Documents..
Sr Adv Naidu: but they have to prove that they are the same person as in 2002 list. They are using alias etc.
Justice Bagchi: now you are improvising the submissions which you made earlier.
Gegen den Delmenhorster AfD-Chef und Landespolitiker
▶️ Harm Rykena
läuft eine Ermittlung wegen mutmaßlicher Verstöße gegen das Parteiengesetz. Im Fokus der Staatsanwaltschaft Hannover stehen Spendengelder.
👇👇👇 dk-online.de/lokales/delmen…
▶️ Geld in Spardosen gesammelt:
Demnach sollen AfD-Landeschef Schledde und Rykena auf Parteiveranstaltungen Bargeld eingesammelt haben.
Nach Angaben eines Zeugen sollen dafür AfD-Spardosen aufgestellt worden sein.
▶️ Das Geld soll aber WEDER an die Partei weitergeleitet noch im Rechenschaftsbericht deklariert worden sein.
Peruskoulun tilanne on viimein valjennut poliitikoille, ja uudistusvaateet ovat kovat. Se on erinomaista, sillä jotakin on viimein pakko tehdä, mutta tietämättömien into johtaa helposti ylilyönteihin.
Tässä ketjussa muutama toiveeni:
Päättökoe ei lisää oppimista.
Yksikään koe ei tuo oppilaalle lisää tietoja ja taitoja, vaan kertoo vain tason. Se taas on laskenut, minkä kuka tahansa opettaja voi kertoa kokeittakin.
Kannattaisiko päättökoerahoitus käyttää pikemminkin itse oppimiseen?
Koulu tuntuu olevan toiveiden tynnyri, ja opetussuunnitelmat ovat kasvaneet kerta toisensa jälkeen, mutta tuntimäärää ei ole lisätty. Kun sisällöt vain kasvavat, jää itse perustaitojen opettamiseen aina vain vähemmän aikaa. Se alkaa jo näkyä.
@lowercosts @KonstantinNotz @moderkopf16756 Sie mein Herr scheinen nicht zu begreifen, dass ein unberechenbarer Präsident viel eher Frieden erzielen kann, wie dazu eine berechenbare Persönlichkeit imstande wäre.
@lowercosts @KonstantinNotz @moderkopf16756 The conflict in Iran is not just about dismantling a cartel and eliminating a threat to international trade, its neighboring states and Israel, but also about restoring the balance of power, to prevent bigger conflicts in the future. threadreaderapp.com/thread/2028004…
@lowercosts @KonstantinNotz @moderkopf16756 Der Konflikt um die Kontrolle der Seerouten war unvermeidlich. Wäre er nicht jetzt ausgebrochen, so wäre dieser zu einem späteren Zeitpunkt ausgefochten worden.
Reminds me that Tapp was getting bullied last week in parliament for defending the ILR reforms on the apparently ignoble grounds that it would save the government money.
Kenya is one bad war away from mass starvation. Here's why...
A long 🧵
1909, Fritz Haber cracks the code to feeding humanity. Haber-Bosch process, synthesizing nitrogen from the air, gave us fertilizer. Vaclav Smil calculated that without it, about half of today's 8-9 billion humans would not exist. Fertilizer isn't agri. Fertilizer IS civilization.
Kenya grows nothing, absolutely NOTHING, at scale without imported N, P & K. We have zero domestic production of N, P & K elements. Every bag of DAP, Urea, CAN & NPK on our farms arrived on a ship. We are 100% import-dependent for the chemical backbone of our food supply.
Sr Adv DS Naidu: This court delivered a judgment (on women representation) to empower women. But some are misusing it.
#SupremeCourt
CJI: this court by an order dated December 8 2025 under Article 142 ensured 30 percent women representation in each state bar council. 10 percent was by co option and 20 percent by election. This court also appointed the high powered election supervisory committee headed by Justice Sudhanshu Dhulia. State election committees were also constituted. At the outset we acknowledge the herculean task done by the committee.
CJI: in that process the supervisory committee has passed a self speaking order on February 9 in order to clarify how the 20 and 10 percent representation is to be given effect to. We are informed that BCI has issued a circular that selection of candidates for 10 percent co option shall be made by BCI rules.
Polska miała zostać gazowym eldorado Europy: 5,3 bln m3 gazu łupkowego, największe złoża na kontynencie. Wydano 3 miliardy złotych. Wykonano 72 odwierty. Wycofało się 46 zagranicznych koncernów. Rosja wygrała. A jedną z kluczowych spółek łupkowych założył... Foka.
Jedziemy:
Poznajcie Silurian sp. z o.o. (KRS 0000368284). Spółkę, która posiadała udziały w 13 koncesjach na poszukiwanie gazu łupkowego w Polsce. Partnerzy z USA, plany IPO w Londynie, wielkie obietnice.
Ale zacznijmy od początku. Od nazwy, którą spółka nosiła zanim stała się Silurianem.
W listopadzie 2010 r. w KRS rejestrowana jest spółka Perfect Nine sp. z o.o. Kapitał zakładowy: 5 tys. zł. Założyciel, jedyny wspólnik i prezes zarządu: Sebastian Stanisław Jargut.
Pseudonim: „Foka". Tak, ten "Foka".
Adv Prashant Bhushan: More than 10,000 farmers commit suicide every year. MSP is given which is below the cost price. It should be cost price plus 50 percent. Only wheat and grain is procured at MSP. Farmers are in acute distress. This is twin hammering.
CJI Surya Kant: Lot of mathematical formulas being cited. Difficulty will arise in cost of land and capital. Will it not vary from state to state or district to district.
Bhushan: I am not asking for the actual cost plus 50 percent.
Bhushan: govt own calculation for weighted average cost should be paid.
Justice Bagchi: you are almost asking us to rewrite the economic policy of the country. Look at the Pleadings.
Bhushan: drafted by my junior. But please see... It is okay for the govt to give free ration but that does not mean that affect on farmer is such that they don't get the cost and commit suicide.
Bhushan: take weighted average cost of the whole country and pay that much.
CJI; there are farmers with big chunk of land. There cannot be an uniform policy for all you see.
SitRep - 12/04/26 - Happy Easter to everyone who celebrates
An overview of the daily events in Russia's invasion of Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky and First Lady Olena Zelenska extended Easter greetings to Ukrainians.
2027 is not a random year-it is not going to be the same for any lagna.
Rahu-Ketu and Saturn will be in Kendra from each other,Rahu is going to be aspected by Saturn.
Saturn - into Aries
Rahu-ketu - into Capricorn
Jupiter - into Leo
Here is what you can expect -
1/N 🧵
Before the predictions, understand the setup. Saturn moving into Aries is debilitated, meaning it is weakest and most unpredictable here.
Jupiter moving into Leo is strong and confident here.
Rahu in Capricorn chases ambition and career obsessively. Ketu in Cancer cuts emotional attachments and forces inner work. Now put all of this together for your rising sign.
Aries Ascendant -
Saturn sits directly on your ascendant. This hits your health, energy levels, and personal confidence.
You will feel heavier, more restricted, and more serious than usual. This is not punishment, it is pressure that builds character. Jupiter in your 5th house is a massive blessing though. Children related news comes, investments do better than expected, and your intelligence sharpens.
The problem area is your 4th house where Ketu sits. Home life feels unsettled and mother's health may need attention. Do not neglect your body in this period. Sleep, food, and routine become your medicine.
۱/۱۰
محاصره دریایی ایالات متحده در تنگه هرمز، حدود ۲۷۶ میلیون دلار در روز هزینه از دست رفته صادرات برای ایران خواهد داشت و ۱۵۹ میلیون دلار در روز واردات را مختل خواهد کرد. مجموع آسیب اقتصادی حدود ۴۳۵ میلیون دلار در روز یا ۱۳ میلیارد دلار در ماه است.
بیش از ۹۰٪ از ۱۰۹.۷ میلیارد دلار تجارت سالانه ایران از طریق خلیج فارس انجام میشود. نفت و گاز ۸۰٪ از درآمدهای صادراتی دولت و ۲۳.۷٪ از GDP را تشکیل میدهند. جزیره خارک به تنهایی حدود ۵۳ میلیارد دلار در سال درآمد ایجاد میکند، یا همانطور که به @TIME گفتم: «۷۸ میلیارد دلار در سال درآمد انرژی».
۲/۱۰
نفت خام: ایران روزانه حدود ۱.۵ میلیون بشکه صادر میکرد و با قیمت زمان جنگ (حدود ۸۷ دلار در بشکه) روزانه ۱۳۹ میلیون دلار درآمد داشت (هرچند به دلیل تحریمهای بانکی، بازگشت واقعی ارز بسیار ناچیز بود). محاصره این درآمد را یکشبه صفر میکند. جزیره خارک که ۹۲٪ صادرات نفت خام را مدیریت میکند، عمیقاً داخل خلیج فارس قرار دارد و هیچ جایگزین عملی ندارد. یعنی ۱۳۹ میلیون دلار در روز، از بین رفته.