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En el directo de ayer de @MomentumFinanc3 se trató un tema muy interesante sobre copiar o no copiar posiciones de otros inversores.
En este hilo voy a reflejar mi opinión personal al respecto👇
Voy con todo💪
1/
En este hilo voy a reflejar mi opinión personal al respecto👇
Voy con todo💪
1/
2/ Lo primero es quitarle la connotación negativa de "copiar".
Copiar significa que tienes que decidir qué copiar.
Seleccionar qué copiar ya es una decisión a tomar por el inversor.
Para saber qué copiar, debes conocer la tesis que está detrás para poder seleccionar bien.
Copiar significa que tienes que decidir qué copiar.
Seleccionar qué copiar ya es una decisión a tomar por el inversor.
Para saber qué copiar, debes conocer la tesis que está detrás para poder seleccionar bien.
3/ Por ello, más que copiar, voy a decir que los inversores podemos "seleccionar" las mejores tesis de otros inversores.
Seamos humildes, los inversores particulares no tenemos ni el tiempo ni los recursos suficientes para desarrollar tantas tesis.
Tenemos que vivir de algo
Seamos humildes, los inversores particulares no tenemos ni el tiempo ni los recursos suficientes para desarrollar tantas tesis.
Tenemos que vivir de algo
Top holdings for me:
1. $OET
2. #2020bulkers
3. eagleships.com
4. $TGB (Taseko)
New kid on the block is Eagle, small dry bulk ships.
Not all ECO but decent and it is really in the large ship segments ECO is most important. Top mgt without historical issues.
1. $OET
2. #2020bulkers
3. eagleships.com
4. $TGB (Taseko)
New kid on the block is Eagle, small dry bulk ships.
Not all ECO but decent and it is really in the large ship segments ECO is most important. Top mgt without historical issues.
Besides its ECO share, most ships are also scrubber fitted. The company is making an absurd amount of money at current rates from Q3 it should be viewed as heavily spot and that means trading on something like P/E 1.3 as everything above 10k per day is Earnings on 53 vessels.
I am not saying these 32k per day will stay the coming year. But I am saying that so far they seem quite sticky and not so volatile. To some extent this is probably due to both being impacted but the same distortions as containers (without having that awful orderbook) +
Going back 10m or so my idea was that I wanted to own #2020Bulkers for the post covid world wide stimulus benefitting iron ore & steel, my guess was that Q2 2021 was the time for cape rates to strengthen. The stock has already doubled incl divs as it traded so much below NAV then
My other even larger holding was $OET with the thought rates would strengthen in Q4 2021 on a revival of flying. I also expected the ECO advantage to increase with higher oilprice and the fuel spread to widen with less plane fuel blendstock available. After large divs my $OET
cost is below 50nok so at least a 50% gain.
Its been a generally good shipping market in Q1 2021, for me almost 60% on the portfolio. But I think it is also fair to make the point again that markets are forward looking.
Its been a generally good shipping market in Q1 2021, for me almost 60% on the portfolio. But I think it is also fair to make the point again that markets are forward looking.
Yes, it is time to increase my focus on my old sector, mining again, and apply the knowledge I still have after doing that sector for 10y before moving to shipping. Mining was up and down for me but from start to end I made 10x in my main portfolio.
What I will do is to focus on historically great managements. The more proven the better. Then I will choose "acceptable" juristictions and very large projects as the permitting risk is the same for large and small This slide from the other day ranks juristictions incl provinces 
Shipping will still be like 80-90% for me but really, right now the sector is on autopilot towards the ECO & Carbon theme and all I have to do really is sit on $OET and #2020bulkers and let those play out 2021-2023 or perhaps even longer as carbon bites the non ECOs.
Let's sort it out:
Scrubber vs ECO vs Size. The $OET & #2020Bulkers advantages and... are there risks to scrubbers from politicians? What would that mean?
1. ECO is about ships using less fuel due to propulsion and general features. That also means less CO2, carbon emissions.
Scrubber vs ECO vs Size. The $OET & #2020Bulkers advantages and... are there risks to scrubbers from politicians? What would that mean?
1. ECO is about ships using less fuel due to propulsion and general features. That also means less CO2, carbon emissions.
2. Scrubbers is not so much about CO2, only removes like 2%. It is all about cleaning sulphur or the black smoke. The controversy is about putting that into the ocean. The argument for is -a silly low addition vs all the sulphur in the ocean & that sulphur is an airproblem only.
Looking at the current situation scrubbers are an economic failure for all that did retrofits but those that installed when the ships were built got it cheaper and with no offhire time. Being ECO is important, being larger ships is important, being modern is important=premium pay
