Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #2ndanniversary

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On the eve of the #2ndAnniversary of the #DeMonetisation that we know was a #DemonetisationDisaster I present a Tweet thread on my analysis of just one of the many claims made for it - that it would boost #cashless #digital transactions. It did not do that. Here's my evidence:
The analysis and paper (Draft 1) is here:
on issuu: issuu.com/home/published…
and
on Scribd: scribd.com/document/39252…
But here in this thread I present the main results. Previous analysts used a simplistic approach of doing a before-after comparison. But this is a spurious method
It leads to the Post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy. See rationalwiki.org/wiki/Post_hoc,…
My analytical approach was simple. I used the figures from RBI and took the monthly data upto Oct 2016 on each idicator and treated it as a regular time series data. (see robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/fpp/)
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