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91L is up to an 80 percent chance of developing this week, per the NHC. Once it does, it will be named Danielle -- and we'll have a better idea who the storm would eventually threaten -- if anyone. 1/x 
This morning, modeling seems to indicate a slw strengthening, then a recurve somewhere north of the Bahamas. Obviously that's good news for the Carolinas -- especially after last night's GFS run. 2/x
That said, there are 3 things that need to happen before we can put confidence in not having Danielle threaten.
1. Consolidation
2. Strength
3. Synoptics
Let's take each in order: 4/x
1. Consolidation
2. Strength
3. Synoptics
Let's take each in order: 4/x
All eyes (well, except for those following the GFS phantom doomsday storm in the Gulf) are on #91L this weekend. But down the road, that little yellow dot to its north may have a lot to say about things. Why? 1/x
The little dot (let's call it a lemon) will never be a threat, and likely won't even make tropical depression status. It's trying to develop in a region of dry air and shear -- sort of like FAMU vs. UNC or Duquesne vs. FSU last night, the odds are stacked against it. 2/x
Current moisture levels in that area are similar to what we see in October: PWATs below 1.25 inches and humidity that would feel refreshing to us -- but not to a system trying to develop. 3/x
As we start a new week, let's check in to see what's on the menu down in the tropics.
-#Larry recurves into the North Atlantic, perhaps brushing NL.
-#91L may still develop but probably not until it moves east of FL.
-New Caribbean wave to watch.
-Maybe a new EATL storm.
-#Larry recurves into the North Atlantic, perhaps brushing NL.
-#91L may still develop but probably not until it moves east of FL.
-New Caribbean wave to watch.
-Maybe a new EATL storm.
Right now, of the three storms that have yet to develop, the new Caribbean system probably deserves the most scrutiny.
It will form in a manner similar to Ida and 91L, which means it could either become an impactful storm or wander west into Central America.
It will form in a manner similar to Ida and 91L, which means it could either become an impactful storm or wander west into Central America.
#91L isn't looking too hot this morning given the wind shear and dry air we've been talking about for several days.
We'll watch to see if any circulation might be able to form under the deeper convection that has been popping up this morning due west of Key West.
We'll watch to see if any circulation might be able to form under the deeper convection that has been popping up this morning due west of Key West.
