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In recent #IPCC report, developing countries insisted a disclaimer be highlighted in a separate box. That models "do not make explicit assumptions about global equity, environmental justice or intra-regional income distribution." 🧵
For @carboncopyinfo carboncopy.info/ipccs-climate-…
For @carboncopyinfo carboncopy.info/ipccs-climate-…
So what does this disclaimer mean? What are the assumptions underlying modelled emission reduction pathways & why are they not driven by equity-based considerations like burden of energy transition on poorer countries?
Let's start with how models call for a rapid & drastic decline in only one fossil fuel which is primarily used in the developing world i.e. coal. A recent study by @FuelOnTheFire questioned the socio-political feasibility of such pathways & the leeway they provide for oil & gas 
Our climate is sneaking into code purple (fifth & final level).
- Methane leaks from below the Antarctic ice sheet (Amery Ice Shelf, Wilkes Subglacial Basin, ...)
- Methane leaks from below the Greenland ice sheet (whole field)
- Methane leaks from the Siberian permafrost (land)
- Methane leaks from below the Antarctic ice sheet (Amery Ice Shelf, Wilkes Subglacial Basin, ...)
- Methane leaks from below the Greenland ice sheet (whole field)
- Methane leaks from the Siberian permafrost (land)
- Methane leaks from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, from the Laptev Shelf & from the Kara Shelf (sea-bed methane near Komsomolets Island & Wiese Island)
- Nitrous Oxide leaks from the Kara Shelf (near Wiese Island, near Komsomolets Island, ...)
- Methane leaks: Thwaites Glacier
- Nitrous Oxide leaks from the Kara Shelf (near Wiese Island, near Komsomolets Island, ...)
- Methane leaks: Thwaites Glacier
Sea level rise is about to hit a rate of 2.5 mm a month (proof is coming soon).
96% caused by basal melting below both ice sheets:
4°-6°C warmer at 100m!
Antarctic surface melt is only responsible for 2% of SLR.
Oceans are increasing their contribution (thermal expansion)!
#AR7
96% caused by basal melting below both ice sheets:
4°-6°C warmer at 100m!
Antarctic surface melt is only responsible for 2% of SLR.
Oceans are increasing their contribution (thermal expansion)!
#AR7
Basal melting:
Warmer & saltier ocean water flowing through channels, fjords, troughs & subglacial lakes is responsible for the rapid warm-up of the Antarctic ice sheet (lower part).
Surface melt:
Draining of supraglacial lakes is causing a destabilization of the upper part.
Warmer & saltier ocean water flowing through channels, fjords, troughs & subglacial lakes is responsible for the rapid warm-up of the Antarctic ice sheet (lower part).
Surface melt:
Draining of supraglacial lakes is causing a destabilization of the upper part.
Pine Island glacier & Thwaites glacier are facing a rapid warm-up & a rapid salinization of the entire water column in front of their calving field.
Also Cook, Ninnis, Mertz, Frost, Totten, Vanderford, Scott & Denman glacier are facing extreme warm underflows (& Amery Ice Shelf).
Also Cook, Ninnis, Mertz, Frost, Totten, Vanderford, Scott & Denman glacier are facing extreme warm underflows (& Amery Ice Shelf).
