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The news on Russian television again accused that "the Ukrainian side attacked Donbas". For so many years, we have become accustomed to lies and manipulations in the media space of the aggressor country. But that's a higher level of cynicism... #AgainstRussianLies #UW_InfoWatch 
However, a recent news broadcast on one of the propaganda channels Russia 1 once again exposed the true nature of this country. The video footage showed another "attack by Ukraine on peaceful civilians".
However, to create this story, propagandists used video footage of the aftermath of a missile strike by Russia on #Uman.
Screenshot from Suspilne
Screenshot from Suspilne
🧵We are about to roll into May—so we are now within the time window of favorable weather conditions for the much expected Ukrainian offensive. Analysts continue to argue about the possible azimuth of movement in #Ukraine, plans/tactics, readiness , etc. I won’t rehash it. 1/5
I will point to one important factor in this war that pundits have consistently underestimated, i.e., the resilience of the Ukrainian nation and the morale and determination of its armed forces. The outcome of the UKR spring offensive will be a sum-total of several variables. 2/5
But I would argue that the RUS side will never match the morale of Ukrainian soldiers who are in an existential fight for their sovereignty, freedom and the very survival of their people. One can’t quantify this factor, but in the coming battle it may in fact prove decisive .3/5
Russia is waging a hybrid war against the entire West. Ukraine is the key to solving the Russian problem in the world 🧵
Russia can't oppose the West with military force. So Kremlin is working to split a united Europe from the middle, using the vulnerabilities of democracy.
Russia seeks to shape Europe's information agenda by promoting its propaganda. Russia actively cooperates with far-left and far-right, in particular, neo-Nazi movements in Europe to promote Euroscepticism.
1-22
An article that will sound reasonable to some, with a better setup for various scenarios than some other similar articles. But ultimately wrong, I believe, at the conceptual level.
My critique and alternative analysis below.
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia…
An article that will sound reasonable to some, with a better setup for various scenarios than some other similar articles. But ultimately wrong, I believe, at the conceptual level.
My critique and alternative analysis below.
foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/russia…
2-22
The temptation of the analogy with the Korean War is obvious, thousands of people have thought about it, I did too. But there's a major difference: Western troops are not fighting in Ukraine. And so the analogy makes us project into Ukrainian decision making far too much.
The temptation of the analogy with the Korean War is obvious, thousands of people have thought about it, I did too. But there's a major difference: Western troops are not fighting in Ukraine. And so the analogy makes us project into Ukrainian decision making far too much.
3-22
The "as long as it takes" line from Western govts is the only one that survives scrutiny. Signalling that we desire an exit is not much better than betraying Ukraine at an earlier stage in the timeline.
The "as long as it takes" line from Western govts is the only one that survives scrutiny. Signalling that we desire an exit is not much better than betraying Ukraine at an earlier stage in the timeline.
I've got a letter this evening from an Danish friend, promised to translate to English, he wanted me to lay this out, a long thread:
Russian sadism. Colonel Roman Svitan's testimony
***
/1
Russian sadism. Colonel Roman Svitan's testimony
***
/1
Roman Hryhorovytj Svitan (date of birth: 4.1.1964) - a reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, a leading military expert and an instructor pilot. One of the heroes of the movie "Heroes of Ukrainian Donbas".
/2a
/2a
According to him, he experienced the sadism of the Russians on his own example.
/2b
/2b
💭 "A friend ... has confirmed that Ukraine *TRULY* tried ... to retake ZNPP in Enerhodar
> insane ops, that *NO* Western officer would have greenlit"
💡 QUICK QUESTION FOR @noclador:
❓If asked for a forecast for today's date on 23 Feb '22...
What percentage of Western… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
> insane ops, that *NO* Western officer would have greenlit"
💡 QUICK QUESTION FOR @noclador:
❓If asked for a forecast for today's date on 23 Feb '22...
What percentage of Western… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Quick recap for those who needs a couple highlights:
Dear officers and "experts", here's a reminder for all of you:
🗑 russia lost its flagship that it was very proud of....
to the country that essentially had no active fleet at the time.
🔱 Ukraine.
🗑 russia lost its flagship that it was very proud of....
to the country that essentially had no active fleet at the time.
🔱 Ukraine.
🧵Sitting for 9hrs on a transatlantic flight gives you an opportunity to slow down. So let me use this time to share a few thoughts on where we are heading when it comes to the war in #Ukraine. Most agree that a Ukrainian counteroffensive will likely happen in May-June. 1/7
It’s not just because of the slow drip of weapons and supplies arriving there. It’s also the weather-need dry conditions to move armor at speed. Most importantly, the outcome of the offensive will determine where the US and then Europe will be when it comes to supporting UKR. 2/7
Once again, our debate is driven by our strategic impatience. When it comes to UKR Western policy elites seem unable to understand that to win in a system-transforming war you need to come at it with the assumption that it may be long. And costly. Don’t impose timelines. 3/7
The Russians fired on #Kostyantynivka (near Bakhmut) with MLRS and cluster munitions; there are victims.
As reported in Donetsk Regional Military Administration, multi-apartment houses were damaged. At the moment, it is known about three dead and six wounded.🤬
#RussianWarCrimes
As reported in Donetsk Regional Military Administration, multi-apartment houses were damaged. At the moment, it is known about three dead and six wounded.🤬
#RussianWarCrimes
Paramedic showed the consequences of the terrorist attack on #Kostyantynivka
He &other paramedics were nearby, so they provided first aid to the surviving woman,but unfortunately they couldn’t save the other people, they were already dead.
So far 6 civilians killed and 8 injured
He &other paramedics were nearby, so they provided first aid to the surviving woman,but unfortunately they couldn’t save the other people, they were already dead.
So far 6 civilians killed and 8 injured
21+ ‼️
#RussianWarCrimes
Terrifying video footage of the consequences of the shelling of #Kostyantynivka. The woman died just in her kitchen.
So far 6 people killed and 8 injured.
#RussiaIsATerroristNaziState #RussiaIsATerroristState #StopRussiaNow #ArmUkraineNow twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
#RussianWarCrimes
Terrifying video footage of the consequences of the shelling of #Kostyantynivka. The woman died just in her kitchen.
So far 6 people killed and 8 injured.
#RussiaIsATerroristNaziState #RussiaIsATerroristState #StopRussiaNow #ArmUkraineNow twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Does the West's supply of weapons to Ukraine prolong the war? No. But Russia does 🧵
There is only one way to end Russian aggression. The victory of Ukraine and liberation of the occupied territories. To do this, Ukraine needs weapons from its partners.
The West, supplying weapons to Ukraine, stands on the side of the victim of aggression and thus acts following the UN Charter and international law. Russia hasn't understood Ukraine's peaceful initiatives yet.
🧵About to fly back from #Berlin after our conference commemorating the 75th anniversary of the Marshall Plan. As much of the conversation focused on the postwar reconstruction of #Ukraine, let me share a few thoughts. First, the top priority should be helping #Ukraine win. 1/7
Partners continue to provide support to #Ukraine, including weapons. #Ukraine highly values the project of the European Defense Agency signed on March 20 regarding the joint production of 155-calibre ammunition. 1/5 #UW_InfoWatch #AgainstRussianLies
"As of now, 19 EU MSs and Norway have already joined this project. That is 20 countries that will be involved in one way or another in the joint production of the 155-calibre ammunition, which is extremely necessary for Ukraine," Ukraine’s FM Dmytro Kuleba. 2/5
#StandWithUkraine
#StandWithUkraine
The minister emphasised that this is a "really revolutionary step", as all these countries will work to make the aid to Ukraine with shells become strategic. 3/5 #ArmUkraineNow
🧵I am taking part in yet another conference on defense planning and strategy, and of course the conversation defaults to #Ukraine. And again, I hear how this war will go for many years. I even heard about a "forever-war" (sic!). So let me get a couple things straight. 1/5
First: There are no "forever wars." Every war ends at some point. So, let's stop being breathless. Second: Considering that the latest Russian offensive has degenerated into a war of attrition, all eyes should be on #Ukraine and its next move. 2/5
It may be a breakthrough, or it may end up in another stalemate. This is a binary, and each will have a direct political outcome, especially when it comes to Western support for #Ukraine. Simply put, Kyiv needs a win-at least at the operational level, preferably strategic. 3/5
There's been criticism of the detail (esp re #Poland, which has already delivered Leos) - but @JeremyCliffe's main point is right.
▶️I'd actually take it further (it's not about #Germany but about #Ukraine), which is why we need to talk about #Finland🧵
newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023…
▶️I'd actually take it further (it's not about #Germany but about #Ukraine), which is why we need to talk about #Finland🧵
newstatesman.com/quickfire/2023…
I've repeatedly praised #Finland's approach to standing up #Russia & have written on its own #Zeitenwende in joining #NATO.
I've also repeatedly praised @MarinSanna as a figurehead of #NeoIdealism - who's been wonderfully clear on how & why #Ukraine must win & RU must lose
/2
I've also repeatedly praised @MarinSanna as a figurehead of #NeoIdealism - who's been wonderfully clear on how & why #Ukraine must win & RU must lose
/2
So, to be clear, this is not a general critique of🇫🇮or '🇫🇮 bashing'!
- BUT on the tank issue, I think #Finland has got it wrong.
- According to public info they have agreed to send
3 Patria Leopard2R heavy mine breaching tanks
-But NO #Leopard2 MBTs
ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende…
/3
- BUT on the tank issue, I think #Finland has got it wrong.
- According to public info they have agreed to send
3 Patria Leopard2R heavy mine breaching tanks
-But NO #Leopard2 MBTs
ip-quarterly.com/en/zeitenwende…
/3
In Kyiv @MarinSanna and @ZelenskyyUa pay tribute to the fallen warrior Dmytro "Da Vinci" Kotsyubailo.
Glory to the Hero.
Glory to Ukraine.
#russiaisaterrorisstate
Glory to the Hero.
Glory to Ukraine.
#russiaisaterrorisstate
The top officers of the Ukrainian army, @CinC_AFU general Valery Zaluzhniy, the head of @DI_Ukraine general Kyrylo Budanov and the minister of defense Oleksiy Reznikov attended the service.
Hundreds of people at the public funeral service for Da Vinci. And thousands who mourn at home.
No russian soldier of this brutal criminal war deserved such respect.
Glory to the hero.
#russiaisaterrorisstate
#ArmUkraineNow
No russian soldier of this brutal criminal war deserved such respect.
Glory to the hero.
#russiaisaterrorisstate
#ArmUkraineNow
Heute Email von Frau Dr. rer. nat. (50 J.):
"Aus dem Bericht dieses österr. Oberst [Reisner; war mein Hinweis] habe ich geschlossen, dass die Ukrainer v.a. von den Amis verheizt werden. Also muss der Krieg beendet werden, indem alle Verhandlungsbefürworter weltweit gemeinsam 👇
"Aus dem Bericht dieses österr. Oberst [Reisner; war mein Hinweis] habe ich geschlossen, dass die Ukrainer v.a. von den Amis verheizt werden. Also muss der Krieg beendet werden, indem alle Verhandlungsbefürworter weltweit gemeinsam 👇
Druck aufbauen (auch auf das "zivilisierte" US-Amerika). Die Alternative scheint ja nur ein massiver Einsatz von schwersten Waffen und NATO-Schlag zu sein, weil die UKR es sonst nicht schafft. Wo soll das hinführen? Sagen Sie mir nicht, dass ist die Meinung dieser links-grünen 👇
Blümchenzüchter [sie ist Grünen-Mitglied]. Die sind in meiner Umgebung nämlich alle keine Pazifisten mehr und für Waffen! (...) Europa hat seinen Zenit überschritten. Jetzt sind mal andere dran (...) Sich den schönen Dingen widmen ist wohl die beste Überlebensstrategie." 👇
The Economist asks and answers the big question 🙋🏻♂️ and by doing so, it squashes the already weak arguments of putin-sponsored pacifists and the western fiscal-conservatives-minted-in-the-kremlin economist.com/leaders/2023/0… via @TheEconomist 1/5
“As the war enters its second year, some ask whether Ukraine is worth all this effort. Isn’t the cost-of-living crisis more urgent? Or climate change? Imagine if the money spent on weapons could finance development instead.” 2/5
“It is right to regret the war, but unwise simply to wish away Mr Putin’s aggression. A Russian victory in Ukraine would frog-march the world down a bleak path where might is right and frontiers are drawn by violence.” 3/5
🧵As I watch delays in weapons and munitions deliveries to #Ukraine amidst incessant talk about “redlines” and “risk of escalation, let me offer a few thoughts. First,why are we second-guessing ourself as to what Russian reaction might be when #Europe’s security is at stake? 1/
The reality is that we are self-imposing those redlines. We keep communicating our anxiety at every turn, while we should actually keep Russia guessing as to what we will do when it comes to both policy and weapons deliveries to #Ukraine. In effect, we are “self-deterring.” 2/
On my 2nd point, i.e., the risk of escalation let’s remember that in the final analysis we have limited capacity to control what Putin does next. I say this not to dismiss the threat but to focus on what we need to do to help #Ukraine win because it is fighting for us as well.3/
🧵I have read reports of leaks that Germany and France are talking about offering #Ukraine a security guarantee if it agrees to peace talks with Russia/
Assuming these reports are accurate, let me point out a few basic facts: 1. Russia has shown no interest in peace talks. 1/
Assuming these reports are accurate, let me point out a few basic facts: 1. Russia has shown no interest in peace talks. 1/
Any peace deal now would amount to a Russian victory. Pushing for negotiations now would amount to another case of appeasement towards Russia. 2. No country in Europe has military power sufficient to guarantee #Ukraine's security without the United States at the table. 2/
If you doubt me, ask yourself which country other than the US has logistical capacity to execute the supply operation that has kept #Ukraine in the fight for a year. 3. A guarantee against Russia must include a credible nuclear deterrent. Which EUR country could provide it?3/
#muc1802 (🧵): Als "Linker" einmal auf derselben Bühne sprechen, auf der bereits #AfD'ler, szenebekannte Neonazis wie #UlrichPätzold und der kürzlich verhaftete Reichsbürger-Oberst #MaximilianEder sprachen? Möglich war das letzten Samstag auf der "Friedensdemo" am Königsplatz/MUC
2/x Denn den bereits berüchtigten Bühnentruck stellte in #München #Querdenken871 Landshut alias "Bayern steht zusammen" alias "Team Mensch" von #BerndDreyer & #RenateKukral (links und rechts an den Trommeln). Dreyer ist Ex Stasi-IM, Kukral dicke mit Lokalgrößen von #NPD & #IIIWeg
3/x Hier mal zwei Collagen zur besseren Einordnung von Organisationsstruktur, Chronologie und #Neonazi-Connections der mittlerweile als Verein(e) geführten Landshuter #Querfront. Diese ist in ganz Bayern und Deutschland sehr umtriebig. Unten rechts im Bild: Neonazi #UlrichPätzold
🧵We need a larger conversation with our European @NATO allies on how they interact with Russia and especially China going forward when it comes to trade and technology. We need to take a page from the Cold War playbook when it comes to transfers of sensitive technology. 1/
Russia is a neo-imperial revisionist state. Secretary Austin described as China as America’s “pacing threat." We need to work closely with our allies and partners to ensure they do not feed technology and money to our adversary in Asia. 2/
I've advocated that @NATO restore COCOM restrictions from the Cold War era. COCOM (The Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls) was established after WWII to control what technology was allowed to be sold to the Soviet bloc. 3/
1/4 🇺🇦🪖 Ukrainian military urgently addressed the participants of the Munich Conference regarding much needed weapons
#MunichSecurityConference2023
#MunichSecurityConference
#ArmUkraineNow
#ukrainecounteroffensive
#MunichSecurityConference2023
#MunichSecurityConference
#ArmUkraineNow
#ukrainecounteroffensive
2/4
3/4
🧵Moving between speeches, panels and round tables here at @MunSecConf I suddenly had this eerie feeling that perhaps this is what 1938 in Europe must have felt like. We all know that there is a storm brewing outside, but here inside the Bayerischer Hoff all seems normal. 1/
Shaking hands with European and American friends I have worked with over the past three decades, making new acquaintances—it all seems so routine. And yet it all changes suddenly when a Ukrainian parliamentarian pointedly tells the audience we are failing to act fast enough. 2/
Or when a Moldovan speaks of her country hanging by the fingernails, not knowing what comes tomorrow. Or when a Finn, a Balt, or a Pole doesn’t mince words to tell us all the truth about what’s riding on this war. But then the conversation seems to revert back to platitudes.3/
🧵The talk of “great power competition” is now so pervasive in the policy community that it is about to become the same cliche as the “end of history” line. It seems to evoke in the analyst community the familiar echo of grand geopolitical games of the 19th & 20th centuries.1/
What’s missing is a clear articulation of what the “win” looks like-the end state that goes beyond the mantra about preserving the rules based order. It also seems to misread the temporal aspect of competition. The centrality of the process and the importance is staying power 2/
Competition is not just about the telos, but also about what it takes to stay in the race. It’s about focus and perseverance. Russians believe they lost because they’re were cheated, but they lost because once the digital revolution happened they couldn’t stay in the race. 3/
MASSIVE MISSILE STRIKE:
16 ROCKETS OF THE OCCUPIERS WERE DESTROYED
On the night of February 16, the russian occupying forces launched a massive missile attack on critical infrastructure facilities.
The enemy launched 32 air and sea-based cruise missiles over Ukraine.
16 ROCKETS OF THE OCCUPIERS WERE DESTROYED
On the night of February 16, the russian occupying forces launched a massive missile attack on critical infrastructure facilities.
The enemy launched 32 air and sea-based cruise missiles over Ukraine.
12 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles were used from two Tu-95ms strategic bombers from the Caspian Sea area, 8 Kalibr cruise missiles from a frigate from the Black Sea, 12 Kh-22 cruise missiles from six Tu-22m3 long-range bombers from from the Kursk region
and two Kh-59 guided air missiles from two Su-35 tactical aircraft from the Melitopol region.
The forces and means of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 14 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, "Kalibr" and two Kh-59 guided air missiles.
The forces and means of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine destroyed 14 Kh-101/Kh-555 cruise missiles, "Kalibr" and two Kh-59 guided air missiles.
