Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #AZGov

Most recents (24)

Thank you defeatists Never Trumpers for whining all month how no-chance @HerschelWalker has in the runoff which helped depress GOP vote.

Thank you!

Go ahead. Let me read your latest Blame-Trump Thread/Article.

(Walker is a rubber stamp for @LeaderMcConnell so whatever).
For an OMG-BAD candidate, Walker held his own.

In 2018, Abrams lost to Kemp by 1.4 points. She was held up as a good candidate and ran again in 2022.

Walker lost to an incumbent Senator by only 0.9 points in November, and it is quite close in the runoff (despite defeatist NTs).
A reminder to @EWErickson et al that in early 2020, Kemp appointed Loeffler as Senator as the Establishment's choice to the seat now held by Warnock.

"McConnell backs Georgia governor’s pick for Senate amid Trump skepticism." - Politico 12/3/09.

Go ahead. Blame Trump!
Read 19 tweets
A lot of candidates of both parties lost close elections in the 2022 midterms. Most of them conceded the races and accepted it didn’t go their way this time. Otherwise known as adulting.
But because two candidates, the drama queens who ran for #AZGOV and #AZSOS, refuse to admit they lost, spurred on by the biggest drama queen who has ever lived, Donald Trump, I decided to compare a few things.
We know what it looks like when a Republican wins Arizona. Donald Trump himself narrowly won Arizona in 2016. It wasn’t pretty and was a lot closer than when Romney won the state just four years beforehand. But we can use that as a baseline. And compare it to 2020 and 2022.
Read 16 tweets
First time candidates, fully and complete Trumpian and with a big focus on 2020, essentially broke even in #AZGov and #AZAG. Yet, Never/Non-Trumpers think that this (which would tip into wins with a slight better GOTV op) proves something AGAINST Trump...

A slight better GOTV Op, and #AZGov #AZAG R in GOP hands.

Less broken machines on election day; a day where the GOP outnumbered Dems, and #AZGov, #AZAG R in GOP hands.

Less Sabotage by Anti-Trump Blackmailers, and #AZGov, #AZAG (AND #AZSen) R in GOP hands.

But cry about Trump.
I love the GOPs/Cons who decry Trump's focus on 2020 but then those same folks keep whining how AZ and other states have the same election day/vote counting issues that Trump complained about and wanted corrected, yet you told him to move on.

Make up your mind, folks.
Read 4 tweets
The most Trumpian/2020-election focused statewide candidate lost by 25K votes among 2.57 million given.

I am sure it proves right all your hot takes about Biden, Trump, 2020, inflation, democracy, abortion.

Oh, plenty GOPs voted Dems to own Trump so it proves 2 X 0, clowns.
This candidate, @KariLake, won 48% of the GOP Primary vote. By attacking her as a "Trump Candidate," U R saying that 48% of GOP AZ Primary voters are dumb idiots who if not for Trump would choose a candidate of quality.

Ya. Being condescending to your own base is a winner!
Lake's loss in AZ is narrow enough to be put at the feet of GOP voters who are willing to blow up winnable races just to own Trump. This shtick can be done to DeSantis too, so how does this prove a deficiency in "Trump Candidates"?

cc @bonchieredstate @RRHElections @mschlapp
Read 8 tweets
So, with Kari Lake on life support in #AZGov, it really does look like the Democratic strategy of quasi-boosting horrible GOP nominees in primaries is about to work out to the best possible degree.
Given the success of Kimberly Yee, I do think Karrin Taylor Robson would have won by a couple points.
The Dems “boosting” Lake wasn’t really much, FTR — all they did was send out a mailer highlighting KTR’s support of Democrats in the past, but lord did it generate a whole firestorm On Here, and Lake and her allies used it in a rally too.
Read 3 tweets
BALLOT UPDATE Maricopa County posts 98,000 ballots. #AZGOV race tightens:
▶️@KariLake w 55% nets a gain of 8,911 votes.
▶️@KatieHobbs w 45% lead shrinks to 26,011
▶️MariCo has 85K-95K remaining ballots. Statewide est. 170K
Overall:
Hobbs 50.5%
Lake 49.5%
But ... @KariLake can't keep up with @Rachel1Mitchell
BALLOT UPDATE @AbrahamHamadeh slices @krismayes lead in half with net gain of 10,122 votes in #AZAG race.
Mayes 50.2%
Hamadeh 49.8%
+11,328
Read 6 tweets
📣📣 A few days ago I posted my analysis of whether the GOP's COVID Death Cult 💀 is likely to be the decisive factor in any *statewide* races. My conclusion was that #NVSenate is the most likely candidate for this (& potentially #AZGov, #AZAG & the upcoming #GASenate Runoff). 1/
I estimate that *if* CCM ends up winning the #NVSenate race by less than ~2,400 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the GOP COVID Death Cult is what made the difference.

The same applies if Dems win #AZGov or #AZAG by less than ~4,100 votes. 2/
In the case of #GASenate, if Raphael Warnock ends up winning the upcoming runoff election by less than ~5,700 votes, I would also put it in this category.

TODAY, as promised, I'm looking at this question for HOUSE races, which are a lot trickier to do due to district borders. 3/
Read 13 tweets
The gains the Dems made here is *VERY* important for understanding how the next several days are likely to go as they process the remaining 275,000 or so ballots in Maricopa County

BLUF: Dems are well-positioned to win these statewide races
You can take the #AZSEN and #AZSOS races off the table -- AP has called the Senate race for Kelly, NBC has called the SOS race for Fontes. Both lead by 5%+ and would need to win nearly 2 in every 3 remaining ballots to come back. That won't happen.
In the #AZGov, #AZAG and #AZSPI races, the Republicans still have the ability to come from behind. But today's drop favoring Dems means they have a steeper hill to climb.
Read 7 tweets
MariCo has posted 74k ballots. The surge of GOP voters predicted by Republican campaigns failed to materialize

#AZSen
Kelly's lead today grew from 114,894 votes to 123,916 (@AP called the race for @CaptMarkKelly

#AZGov
Hobbs' lead went from 26,879 last night to 31,097
#AZSoS
Fontes' lead went from 109,244 to 118,125

#AZAG
Mayes' lead went from 16,414 to 19,151

#AZSPI
Hoffman grew her lead from 3,852 to 6,665
This batch of ballots were the 17,000 that couldn't be scanned on Election Day at polling sites (likely VERY heavily favoring GOPers) and early ballots dropped off at polling places.

Dems made significant gains all around
Read 4 tweets
MariCo has posted 78k ballots that favored Dem candidates

#AZSen
Kelly's lead went from about 104,570 votes to 114,894

#AZGov
Hobbs' lead went from 19,385 to 26,879
#AZSoS
Fontes' lead went from 98,329 to 109,244

#AZAG
Mayes' lead went from 9,800 to 16,414

#AZSPI
*Lead change*
Hoffman went from trailing by 2,568 to leading by 3,852
***NOTE***

This batch of ballots included only early ballots that were mailed back, not those dropped off at polling places on Tuesday.

Republicans believe that those ballots will be heavily GOP, similar to Election Day voters, which were heavy GOP
Read 4 tweets
Trump +17 county, and the results before this batch were Lake +16. Not sure that's what Rs want...and definitely not what Masters wants (this is frankly embarrassing for him at this point).
Still a coin flip IMO, too much unknown about what's left. Be wary of anyone saying either party's got this in the bag. They don't.
Read 4 tweets
1. Circumstantial evidence says that Kari Lake should win #AZGov. This doesn't prove she's the winner, but it's hard to see how Hobbs should win given these conditions.

Since Hobbs is currently ahead anyway, let's review.🧵 Image
2. Polling:

In no poll since August has Hobbs reached 50%. Lake has 8 times, w/3 in the last week. She currently averages >50% in the RCP composite, w/a 3.5 point lead. In the latest 14 polls tracked by 538, Hobbs only led in 1, w/Lake up 2.4 points overall. Broad agreement. ImageImageImageImage
3. Social Media

If SM is a measure of enthusiasm, engagement & campaign efficiency--then Lake is absolutely demolishing Hobbs.

FB: Lake 229k, Lake 12k
Instagram: Lake 421k, Hobbs 7k
Twitter: Lake 591k, Hobbs 136k

Totals: Lake 1.24 million, Hobbs 155k

8X advantage to Lake. Image
Read 10 tweets
How to know that Kari Lake, Abe Hamadeh and Blake Masters are LYING when they tell voters that Trump supposedly won Arizona and it was "stolen" from him (it wasn't, he lost).
#AZGov
#AZSen
#AZSOS

From my #TrumpLost research project.
81.74% of Arizona's Voting Age Population (VAP) according to the 2020 Census lived in its two largest Metropolitan Areas - Metro Phoenix and Metro Tucson. Biden won both of these Metro areas.
Even before the Election of 2020, Trump-endorsed candidates did not necessarily do great in Arizona, especially in statewide elections.
Read 9 tweets
TIL Democrats have adopted the controversial strategy of bullet voting in the Arizona state House this year: azcentral.com/story/news/pol…
Each AZ House district elects two representatives, but each person only gets one vote. So a party can greatly increase its odds of winning one seat if it nominates just one candidate (bc no vote-splitting)—but of course, you give up your shot at winning two.
That's exactly what Democrats have done in 4 of the 5 competitive Arizona House districts this year. That should easily get them to 28 seats in the 60-seat chamber. Then, if both their candidates win in the 5th seat—quite possible, as it was Biden+6—they can force a tied chamber.
Read 6 tweets
A short thread of Kari Lake's bizarre quotes about John McCain 4 years after his death.
1. "John McCain may be dead, but he is reaching up from the grave trying to keep power in Arizona...incredible power, in the entire U.S., world power, and he had complete power over Arizona"
2. "This is time to replace that disgusting, dirty McCain Swamp with, maybe, I don’t know… a Lake?”

You need somebody who is going to represent ‘we the people."
3."This is the McCain branch of the Republican Party. They’re not Republicans. They’re globalists...they want, an end to America. They want a globalist agenda, a new world order...this is their last gasp. It’s the McCain machine reaching up, trying to hold on to what they had"
Read 5 tweets
Wow, even for midterms, this is a new one.

@EchelonInsights poll of #TXGov (813 LV, 8/31-9/7):

@GregAbbott_TX: 48%
@BetoORourke: 46%

Biden underwater at 41-58 in TX (47-52 nationally)

netchoice.org/wp-content/upl…
@EchelonInsights @GregAbbott_TX @BetoORourke Okay, now some other good insights from this.

#AZSen and #AZGov:

@KariLake: 40%
@KatieHobbs: 50%

@bgmasters: 37%
@CaptMarkKelly: 52%

(773 LV, Biden approvals at 40-59)
#GASen and #GAGov:

@ReverendWarnock: 50%
@HerschelWalker: 40%

@staceyabrams: 48%
@BrianKempGA: 47%

(751 LV, Biden approvals: 43-55)
Read 11 tweets
Meet Kari Lake, the MAGA Republican who just won the GOP nomination for #AZGov.

Lake is an anti-abortion, election-denying, conspiracy theory peddling extremist who may be the GOP’s most radical candidate this cycle.

THREAD.
coppercourier.com/story/kari-lak…
Kari Lake is a true election-denier.

Lake called it “disqualifying” for her GOP rivals not to call the 2020 election stole. coppercourier.com/story/kari-lak…
Kari Lake supports a near-total ban on abortion and supports legislation that would criminalize doctors who perform abortion care. coppercourier.com/story/kari-lak…
Read 12 tweets
Meijer takes a 50.5-49.5 lead with 55% of estimated vote in thanks to more votes out of his Kent County base. Again, not getting a winner for a while. #MI03
We're minutes from a LOT of results out of Arizona and Washington, though more votes will be tallied in both states over the coming days.
AP calls GOP primary for red #MO04 for Mark Alford, a former TV anchor in Kansas City.
Read 15 tweets
Polls have closed in Missouri and most of Kansas and Michigan for a huge election night. We'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8…
While we wait for our first results, check out our preview of what to watch here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8…
We've also put together our cheat-sheet of the night's big races, which we'll be updating as contests are called docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Read 26 tweets
Today my campaign released two new ads that hold @KariLake and @Karrin4Arizona accountable for their dangerous positions on the very first day of the general election. We are ready to beat either of these extreme opponents #azgov 🧵(1/4)
@KariLake @Karrin4Arizona WATCH: In our first ad, Lake’s radical plans for AZ are on display, including her devastating views on forced pregnancies for rape & incest victims, & plans to spy on children in classrooms – stances that make Lake so extreme even Republicans attack her.
WATCH: In our second ad, Robson is called out for her rich history of using her wealth and insider connections at the expense of everyday Arizonans. A billionaire lobbyist, Robson supports tax giveaways for herself but less for us.
Read 4 tweets
I am honored to announce the endorsement of former Vice President @Mike_Pence.

He has been a warrior for the sanctity of Life; limited government; law & order; opportunity for all; & the knowledge that our freedoms are granted by God.

I’m proud to have him on my team. #AZgov Image
“As Arizona Democrats pursue the reckless Biden-Harris agenda, Karrin Taylor Robson is the only candidate for Governor that will keep Arizona’s border secure and streets safe, empower parents and create great schools, and promote conservative values.”

- VP @Mike_Pence #AZgov
“Karrin is the best choice for Arizona’s future, and I am proud to support her.”

- VP @Mike_Pence #AZgov
Read 4 tweets
The Queen of Phoenix drag queens, Barbara Seville, spills the tea all over old friend & Trump-endorsed candidate for Arizona governor, @karilake. #AZGOV
UPDATE @KariLake: @thebarbra1's "accusations full of lies."
UPDATE 2 @thebarbra1 responds: "I was the 'Marilyn.' And her daughter was there."
Read 4 tweets
It's the first work day of the new (election) year, and that means candidates with good numbers are announcing their fundraising hauls for 2021. State law allows candidates to raise money for an entire year before reporting their numbers.
In the Dem primary for #AZGOV, @1marcolopez announced that he's raised more than $1m, followed by @aaron4az, who says he's raised $1.16m. No word yet from @katiehobbs, who's expected to have an impressive number boosted by her opposition to the so-called election "audit."
Waiting to see numbers from @KariLake. She was rumored to have fundraising trouble early on, which she denied, but either way, her numbers surely got a boost from from the Trump endorsement.
Read 5 tweets
State treasurer @KimberlyYeeAZ has announced her candidacy for governor, making her the first Republican of note to enter what could be a crowded GOP primary for the open seat. #AZGOV
Yee says our way of life is under attack, vows to oppose "socialist policies" and opportunity over handouts. The former aide to California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger says, "I’ve seen firsthand what socialist policies have done to states like California."
Yee: "President Trump’s America First agenda had our economy booming like never before. But now, our way of life is under attack by the corrupt press, reckless corporate leaders and politicians who put socialist ideals over people, our freedom of speech and our elections."
Read 4 tweets

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