Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ArabianStorms

Most recents (24)

Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #ArabianStorms rainfall forecasts follow.

I was wondering if this might happen. With all the moisture streaming along the North African coast and north east from central Africa. Also some forecasts had this indicated as a possibility.
Admittedly the rain is very light. But it is June and close to Solstice, the hottest month in this part of the world. Here we see the broader picture. The #EuropeBigWet is continuing in a fairly stable pattern for another 48 hours still.
Here's a close up of the North Western quadrant with some big storms bursting to life near the Morocco/Algeria border.
Read 23 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.

The images below from @NASA below show 3 north-south cross sections of the Sahara taken this morning.
1. Morocco to Ivory Coast
2. Algeria to Nigeria & DRC
3. Levant to Uganda.
An updated precipitable water animation - 10 Days - for the Sahara. The transit of water in a north easterly direction is finally starting to slow down, albeit not just yet.
10-day rainfall forecasts from four models for North Africa.
Read 21 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.

Below a satellite picture taken this morning of the #HornOfAfrica.

#Ethiopia #Somaliland #Somalia
The wider region this evening.

More #ArabianStorms and #Abbay convection. The Atlantic continues to be active now looks set to deliver a surprise summer storm early next week. [See #EuropeBigWet for that coverage.]
This close up shows more Atlantic moisture pouring into North Africa over Morroco and Western Sahara. You can also see a substantial dust cloud is now forming which will be helping to suppress Atlantic cyclones.
Read 16 tweets
Today's #NorthAfrica and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.

Below a satellite picture this morning with all the Nile basins including the #Abbay/#BlueNile in #Ethiopia (where it passes through the #GERD) + White Nile, #Sudan, #SouthSudan, #Uganda & the states around Lake Victoria.
10 day rainfall forecasts from the CMC, KMA, GFS and ECMWF models for June 9th through 19th.
A few animations. This one is connected to the separate tweet threads about #EuropeBigWet, which appear to be being driven by Jets of wet air coming off the Atlantic and crossing the Sahara into Europe.

This animation shows a jet crossing Libya and pumping water into Georgia.
Read 17 tweets
Today's forecasts for #NorthAfrica, and the #HornOfAfrica follow.

This 1st image shows the monsoon spreading westwards across the Bay of Bengal. I think it is relevant to the rains in Africa but you will need to wait till the final tweet to see how.

#Ethiopia #Sudan #GERD #Nile
The strength of the West African Monsoon continues to grow as you can see in the animation above. During the current active period (See also #EuropeBigWet) the Sahara is forecast to reach a point where there is water over most of the great desert. Here are 10d rainfall forecasts.
Read 21 tweets
Well its hard to know where to begin with today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.

The action is now further north, and west. Here we see the consequences of the first phase of what appears to be becoming a continuous #WesternSaharaPlume.
An bit of a battle us underway between a high pressure system over Northern Erope and the plume which is entering at the bottom left in this image of Jetstream level 250Hpa 11km high winds.
While the model forecasts remain optimistic that an orderly jetstream may eventually appear, so far this has not happened. And in the meantime these winds are picking up moisture in the tropics and taking it in large quantities to places where its not expected.
Read 27 tweets
A big day for #WestAfricaMonsoon observation.

A full plume event is becoming obvious in central & eastern Europe + Russia. We also have thunderstorms over the Red Sea, and a low circulation heading towards a collision with water vapour over Israel.

Today's forecasts follow.
Visually speaking this is the most extraordinary looking satellite observation of the day.

Now into its sixth day the #EastAfricaWaterPlume has been generating lots of rain over the Red Sea, both last night and today, & right now just off the coast of Jeddah. @Arab_Storms
Here we see a wider view while it is not that obvious in this view, the stream of water vapour heading up the Western Sahara coast is running fast and hot. Later I will post an initial post tracking its impact in Europe. But for now its worth looking closer at North Africa.
Read 27 tweets
With Cyclone #Yaas soaking up all the moisture east of the #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica it was a relatively calm day. Albeit not without another intense set of storms along the Red Sea Coast in the Jinzan mountains.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The days began relatively quiet on the #WestAfricanMonsoon front thanks to Cyclone #Yaas. This image shows a strip from the Libyan Coast across the Sahara down to the Congo.
And it remained fairly quiet over the great forests of equatorial Africa today. But further West over the Ivory Coast and the West Sahara the #WestAfricaWaterPlume continued to pump water vapour across the Sahara into Europe.
Read 16 tweets
Cyclone #Yaas is just 2 days away from landfall on the North Eastern Indian Coast in the Odisha and once onshore is forecast pass over the ancient city of Jaipur.


Today's #MiddleEast #Sahara and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow.
We have a stunningly clear image of the #NileBasin this morning from @NASA Modis from Cairo to Lake Victoria showing the impact of the April and May rains on the landscape.
In today's 10-Day North Africa rain forecasts the European @ECMWF model remains unconvinced about the impact of #WestAfricaWaterPlumes on the Sahara, which as you will soon see are once again having a spectacular impact on European weather.
Read 18 tweets
We have another large #ArabianStorm which was not anticipated by the global weather models. And like those before it, it is fueled by the #WestAfricaMonsoon and a #WestAfricaWaterPlume. This time across the Red Sea in the vicinity of #Makkah.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
This animation shows the current state of a weather event that has been a few days in coming. #ArabianStorms

@Arab_Storms
The origin of this event is very similar to that which caused several days of extremely severe thunderstorms in #Oman earlier in the month. This animation is from May 18th shortly after it first appeared in the @zoom_earth satellite imagery.
Read 15 tweets
The eyes of the world are turned towards the Holy Land on the 10th day of a horrific conflict between the Govt. of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hamas Govt. in Gaza.

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica follow.
This image shows a larger picture of the region, from Cairo to Kampala the full Nile Basin. Source: @NASA Modis.
The 10-day forecasts for North Africa are showing increasing amounts of rain over the Western end of the Sahara Desert. The exception being the @ECMWF model which maintains its disbelief in the concept of #DesertRain.
Read 17 tweets
Cyclone Tauktae is now onshore over the Indian State of Gujarat India. The storm has weakened since these photos were taken by @NASA Modis this morning, but is still packing 150kmh winds & has done a lot of damage.

Rainfall forecasts for #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica follow.
Today's satellite presentation of the area has a new feature which has been strengthening over the past few days. A stream of water vapour out of Central Africa & Sudan transiting Chad and Sudan and then the Red Sea near Jeddah.
There is also an increasing amount of activity in the Western Sahara which supports the CMC and KMA model predictions of significant rainfall in these areas in recent forecasts.
Read 19 tweets
Today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts follow.

Image: A @NASA Modis image of Egypt, the red sea and the Horn of Africa sources of the Nile taken this morning.
First up we have today's 10-Day accumulated rainfall forecasts for North Africa from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC and KMA weather models.
Here are today's #HOA forecasts beginning with #Ethiopia 10-day rainfall from the ECMWF, GFS and KMA 17th May model runs. #Sudan, #SouthSudan #Somalia #Somaliland
Read 9 tweets
Tonight Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Tauktae is already a Cat 3 Hurricane equivalent Cyclone, 24 hours ahead of schedule and tearing up the West Indian coastline on its way north.

Today's #ME and #HOA rainfall forecasts follow. Image
Three more views from the image.

The first shows the positioning of this morning's @NASA Modis picture of Tauktae in relation to the coast. Nearly half the central convection area is over India.

The 2nd shows a wider perspective. & the 3rd provides borders for orientation. ImageImageImage
Further west here are four images from today of the #HornOfAfrica, the #NileDelta, the #Levant and #UAE + #Oman. ImageImageImageImage
Read 18 tweets
Severe Cyclone Tauktae is happening..... moving north up the West India Coastline and strengthening rapidly. It is expected to become a very severe storm (Cat 3) in 48 hours.

Today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica forecasts follow,
Meanwhile back on solid ground, East Africa is looking resplendently verdant this morning. Here in a photo taken by the @NASA Modis satellite. ImageImage
Eyes in the sky....

There's an unusually clear picture today of the Levant, Israel, Gaza and Jerusalem as the world is watching as the horrific bombardment of Gaza continue. Including today, the bombing of the @AJEnglish and @AP offices.

War crimes are multiplying by the hour. ImageImageImageImage
Read 16 tweets
The two computer models which are known for their prowess in predicting cyclones continue to forecast cyclone formation in the Arabian Sea in coming days.

The question of whether these cyclones will form hangs over today's #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica rainfall forecasts.
This image shows the Arabian Sea area where the GFS and ECMWF models are both expecting cyclone formation within the next 10 days, at different times and in different places.
Here's the GFS 9th May model forecast for today showing formation starting on Friday and landfall five days later.
Read 14 tweets
Today's Rainfall Forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow in this thread.

Below you see the Ethiopian Highlands from this morning and including most of the #BlueNile #GERD #Abay watershed . The large storm on the left is mostly over Sudan. On the RHS is #Lalibela.
Here you see an animation of the storm starting up this morning.
This satellite image (@NASA Modis ) shows the area in the Arabian Sea which computer models indicate could generate two cyclones in coming days. You can see the latest GFS forecast runs for those cyclones in the attached thread.
Read 16 tweets
We have a shift to on-shore westerly wind in the Horn of Africa region today, which, I confess means little to me beyond being a new thing in the data. But it seems significant, as there is more water over the sea.

Today's rainfall/cyclone forecasts for the region follow.
Here's a view from this afternoon & the direction of travel is pretty stable. For me onshore winds bringing wet air towards mountains means lots more rain. If anyone is aware of the usual timing of this switch I would be interested.
Here are African 10-Day Accumulated rain forecasts. All of which now show the impact of the two Cyclones which are now in the forecast window.
Read 16 tweets
#Ethiopia the #RedSea coast of #SaudiArabia #Yemen #Somalia and #Oman all experienced spectacular thunderstorm activity today.

Today's #HornOfAfrica and #ArabianStorm rainfall forecasts follow:
First up today, long range @NOAA forecast models are now forecasting a cyclone may form in the Arabian Sea, providing a timely warning of the risk to those in the region. See thread here >> Image
The most important thing about these forecasts is to understand they are an early warning system about the possibility of a cyclone forming, not a forecast that one will do so.

If a threat materialises you will see official advice and warnings here >>
metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Read 14 tweets
The Horn of Africa this morning @NASA worldview, got a great view and more pictures will be included in today's rainfall forecast thread for #Ethiopia #HoA and the #MiddleEast.

Today's forecasts follow.
Here's the first. A view mostly of #Sudan, capturing both the #WhiteNile and #BlueNile as well as part of the Nile below Sudan on its way to Egypt. On the right hand side Lake Tana can be seen through the clouds.

If you look very carefully you may be able to see #GERD.
This view which captures the area below that in the previous image has borders on it to make it easier to see where the abundant green in the firsy image in this thread is located. The rains of the past few weeks appear to be doing God's work in the region.
Read 17 tweets
A @NASA WorldView Modis satellite image from this morning of the #Sudan #Ethiopia Border with a closeup of the #GERD Dam.

Today's rainfall forecasts for #Ethiopia #HornOfAfrica and the #MiddleEast follow. ImageImage
CMC (Canada) and KMA (Korean) weather model forecasts of 10-day accumulated rainfall in North Africa. These two models have been forecasting a stronger than normal West African Monsoon. ImageImage
And to complete the set of three negotiating parties looking for an agreement on the filling and operation of the #GERD, here's an image, also from this morning ,of the Nile Delta in Egypt, showing also the Sinai, Gaza, and Southern Israel. Image
Read 11 tweets
Today's #ArabianStorms were mainly over the Arabian Gulf. #Qatar #Bahrain and the in the middle of the gulf. And the day also saw a storm begin before dawn.

Today's #Ethiopia and #MiddleEast forecasts follow:
The latest CMC and GFS North Africa 10-Day Rain forecasts.
Today two streams of monsoon energy appeared to come together over the south end to send a stream of atmospheric moisture to Oman and on to India.
Read 13 tweets
A 2nd theme of today's weather observations is the awesome power of atmospheric water transfer.
Here we can see how a stream of water originating in the Central African Republic is fueling storms in Saudi Arabia & India.

Today's forecasts follow.
The latest GFS North Africa 10-Day Rain forecast.
Here we see atmospheric water leaving north across the Sahara for Europe this afternoon.
Read 11 tweets
The interconnections between global weather systems is becoming a trend of a fascinating voyage of metereological discovery that started in The #WestSahara in March, moved focus to #Ethiopia and #ArabianStorms in April and has now widened to include Europe and India.
Around lunch I did a wrap up thread about #EuropeanStorms activity caused by Round 1 of the #WestAfricaWaterPlume.
And to see what happened in Round 1 yesterday, this thread is the best place to start.
Read 19 tweets

Related hashtags

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!