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Random graph and epidemiology people, I have a question for you: what is the marginal probability of indirectly killing someone by going out without a mask? There is a small probability I get infected, and then a small probability I infect other people, which in turn...
The impact of my choice looks exponential, but the likelihood is small. Is there a way to calculate it?

I have too many friends who are getting ready for apero from May 11. I want to tell them how many people they will indirectly kill.
(I feel like a mean field approach is easier to use, but it doesn't quantify the consequences of one given person.)
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