Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Armenia_Azerbaijan
Most recents (9)
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: Power politics dominates Azerbaijan's position in both peace deal and Nagorno-Karabakh separatist region future status:⤵️
1) Aliyev offers amnesty to Nagorno-Karabakh de facto administration, but only if it dissolves bodies that govern the unrecognized region; 2) Baku says that it could use military force to take control if it wanted to, but it shows patience;⤵️
3) Aliyev is clearly not interested in any kind of special status for Nagorno-Karabakh and instead demands full surrender and radical revision of the status-quo; 4) Russian peacekeeping forces, but even more so reputational costs and int sanctions are the⤵️
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: Int mediation efforts continue to multiply. Now 3 actors are involved: Russia, the EU, the US. During the EPC summit in Moldova, France/Macron and Germany/Scholz will join the EU to discuss the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan (2+3 format).
The next meeting between Armenia and Azerbaijan will take place in Moscow on May 19. This will be the third meeting after Washington and Brussels. It is difficult to tell which external actor is more persuasive in bringing the two parties closer together.
According to Michel, the dialogue between Pashinyan and Aliyev has progressed on all fronts: 1) peace agreement; 2) border demarcation based on the 1991 borders of the two countries; 3) connectivity for Nakhichevan; 4) humanitarian issue; 5) situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.⤵️
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: The US has joined the mediation effort to bring the two countries to a negotiating table. Armenia is counting on the EU and the US to set the conditions for a peace agreement. Until now, Azerbaijan has shown less political dedication to achieving⤵️
the goal of peace. The main reason could be Baku's prioritization of Nagorno-Karabakh, which means restoration of territorial integrity. Azerbaijan's autocratic regime allows more room for bargaining during negotiations than it appears to in Armenia, where⤵️
democratic institutions are in better shape and the government can be held accountable. Despite the protests and pressure from the more nationalist opposition, Yerevan has shown itself more willing to achieve peace. Unlike the latter, which does not face resistance from⤵️
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: The EU mission in Armenia, launched on February 20, does not represent a way to deter military incidents on the Armenian border with Azerbaijan. It is imperative to manage expectations about the effectiveness of the EU mission to avoid ⤵️
any kind of confrontation between the two parties. Otherwise, the EU will discredit itself as an external actor that, unlike and despite Russia's security role, can bring peace and stability to the South Caucasus. With new episodes of small-scale clashes, ⤵️
while the EU mission is already on the ground, Brussels tries to persuade both sides (which is actually more related to Azerbaijan) to resume and advance the delimitation of bilateral borders. Without this, peace arrangements are unlikely.
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: There are two main conditions that Baku imposes to allow the Armenian community to live in Nagorno-Karabakh. They sound like an ultimatum and are articulated in the language of power:⤵️
1) the recognition by Armenia that Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) belongs to Azerbaijan (this would mean that Yerevan should give up any idea of demanding a special status for the NK populated mainly by the Armenian community, including the deployment of an int peace-keeping mission);⤵️
2) accepting the delimitation of the borders according to Azeri requests (in reality such exercise requires consensus and even mutual concessions if necessary). If they are not fulfilled, Aliyev stressed that Azerbaijan will not recognize the territorial integrity of Armenia.⤵️
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: Historical revisionism, rooted in alleged Soviet decisions, is not invoked solely by Putin and his aggressive war against Ukraine. Azeri leader Aliyev is indirectly questioning the territorial integrity of Armenia. Aliyev argued⤵️ 
that Syunik from Armenia would have belonged to Azerbaijan in the past (West Zangezur). This echoes future territorial disputes beyond the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh. The EU has lately been taking the lead from Azerbaijan because of the country's geostrategic⤵️
position in the field of energy. The EU Delegation in Baku is not saying to much about the opposition’s or civil society’s rights in Azerbaijan, which are kept in the shadow in exchange for energy strategic dialogue.⤵️
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: The decision of the International Court of Justice asking Baku to release the Lachin corridor for the movement of goods to Nagorno Karabakh is a tough pill to swallow, partly also for the EU. Focused on gaining access to Azeri gas, Brussels has been⤵️
soft-spoken about the Lachin corridor for months. Now the EU is forced by the ICJ to toughen the tone in towards Azerbaijan. It is curious to see that Russia is not mentioned in the EU statement, although Baku has been arguing that Russian peacekeepers are to be blamed.
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: There is an increase in requests to sanction Azerbaijan for attacks on Armenia. However, this is very unlikely to happen. Here I explain why: 1) The military hostilities between the two countries have decades of history. So there is a kind of strange⤵️
normalization of the idea that there is a war between two nations in the South Caucasus. The shift from such a deeply entrenched narrative often follows some tectonic shifts (recall the hard work of Ukrainian diplomacy and civil society to convince the West to pre-emptively⤵️
sanction Russia, which, unfortunately, happened after the invasion); 2) The EU wants to buy more Azeri gas. von der Leyen called Azerbaijan a reliable partner (harm to the EU). Baku is also important for the supply of oil to Turkey, etc. Both Georgia (which is⤵️
#Armenia_Azerbaijan: Russia accused the Azeri military of violating the ceasefire agreement signed in November 2020. Baku is carrying out the "Revenge" operation and occupied some nights in the Lachin and Kalbajar regions. Current Azeri objectives are to advance, for which ⤵️
new supply routes are traced in the recently recovered territories. Turkish military UAVs were used in the mountainous areas to destroy the positions of the Armenian military (which Baku considers to be illegally stationed on Azeri territory under the protection of ⤵️
Russian peacekeepers). The Azeri Ministry of Defense has reiterated the following objectives: 1) demilitarization of the regions still under the control of Armenia; 2) withdrawal of the Armenian forces; 3) disarm all Armenian troops. ⤵️
