Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #AusVotes
Most recents (24)
I've updated our Labor-vs-Coalition 2-party-preferred (2pp) calculator with data from the 2022 federal election!
It converts a set of first-preference votes into a 2pp estimate, and gives you some idea of the uncertainty. #auspol #ausvotes #auspseph
armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…
It converts a set of first-preference votes into a 2pp estimate, and gives you some idea of the uncertainty. #auspol #ausvotes #auspseph
armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…
Some polls - like the #ResolvePM released today - don't provide 2pp estimates, so it's unclear who's leading and by how much from the vote estimates published.
armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…
With this tool, we can see that the poll would result in a Labor landslide at an election,
armariuminterreta.com/projects/austr…
With this tool, we can see that the poll would result in a Labor landslide at an election,
approximately equal to 1943 in terms of Labor's win on the 2-party vote.
Additionally, we can also see that even if the preference flows shift against Labor, it's very unlikely that they'd change enough to make this anything other than a large Labor victory.
Additionally, we can also see that even if the preference flows shift against Labor, it's very unlikely that they'd change enough to make this anything other than a large Labor victory.
This coward, Tim Wilson has disabled comments on his post, so here is my public response as a Goldstein resident:
#ausvotes #GoldsteinVotes
#ausvotes #GoldsteinVotes
For voting in favour of a plebiscite that opened the doors to state sanctioned bigotry aimed at the LGBTQIA+ community, good riddance.
For pushing for the Religious Discrimination Bill that would have seen trans students expelled and LGBTQIA+ staff in danger of losing their jobs, good riddance.
Ok, here goes. The election's tomorrow. Somehow there are still undecided voters out there. A definitive measure of any politician's leadership is how they care for our most vulnerable citizens - so let's look at Morrison's track record on aged care. Thread #auspol #ausvotes
When Morrison came to power, he inherited a raft of recommendations to fix aged care from past inquiries, including staffing ratios, pay raise, better regulation & more financial transparency. Rather than implementing these, he called a Royal Commission #auspol #ausvotes
The Royal Commission's interim report, handed down in October 2019, recommended 3 areas of urgent action that needed to be resolved imminently: clearing the home care waitlist, young people with disabilities trapped in aged care, and chemical and physical restraint #auspol
⚠️ Do you know anyone who tested positive for COVID between Saturday and Tuesday 6pm? 🦠
Unless they have already voted or applied for a postal vote before now, they won’t be able to vote at all.
This is a major problem. 🧵
#ausvotes #KooyongVotes
Unless they have already voted or applied for a postal vote before now, they won’t be able to vote at all.
This is a major problem. 🧵
#ausvotes #KooyongVotes
Here’s the story. If you tested positive for COVID you have to isolate for 7 days. Which means not voting in person.
So the @AusElectoralCom has helpfully set up phone voting for this election, so if you test positive today you’ll still be able to vote.
So far, so good…
So the @AusElectoralCom has helpfully set up phone voting for this election, so if you test positive today you’ll still be able to vote.
So far, so good…
BUT the @AusElectoralCom only offers phone voting to people who tested positive after Tuesday 6pm.
Anyone who tested positive between Saturday and Tuesday 6pm and hasn't applied for a postal vote… can’t vote.
Anyone who tested positive between Saturday and Tuesday 6pm and hasn't applied for a postal vote… can’t vote.
It's getting close to election day & we're getting a lot of questions from COVID+ voters.
Here's some answers. 🧵
Here's some answers. 🧵
People who tested positive to COVID after 6pm on Tuesday (& haven’t voted yet) are eligible for a telephone vote. See aec.gov.au/election/covid…
Telephone voting is an emergency service only, for the unique circumstances of the pandemic, with deadlines set in the legislation/regulations.
It is for people who are eligible for the service and have had no other option after their positive test.
It is for people who are eligible for the service and have had no other option after their positive test.
We’ve been hearing a lot about strategic voting recently.Australia’s preferential voting system is the envy of the world. We are lucky to have a system which makes it so easy to ensure that we can vote according to our true preferences, and ensure that our vote matters. #ausvotes
Labor has a real chance of winning in North Sydney in this election, and I am humbled by the support I have received from the community. Strategic voting isn’t necessary in order to get us over the line. #ausvotes
In fact, many independently commissioned polls have us in a close second place behind the incumbent Liberal candidate. #ausvotes
This morning, Former Prime Minister @MrKRudd joined me on the campaign trail in Chatswood, to much fanfare. #ausvotes
Young and old flocked to meet him - he’s immensely popular within Chatswood’s vibrant multicultural community. #ausvotes
Today's special guest on the campaign trail - @jasonyatsenli MP, the very impressive NSW Member for Strathfield. #ausvotes
The locals who stopped to chat with him today were just as impressed with him as I was - Jason has worked in business, worked as a lawyer, worked for the United Nations and was also the Pro-Chancellor at the University of Sydney. #ausvotes
Jason is tri-lingual, so was able to have great conversations with many members of Chatswood's vibrant Chinese-Australian community in both Mandarin and Cantonese.
#ausvotes
#ausvotes
ℹ #Flinders factcheck day
There has been faux topics about Despi O'Connor shared over the few weeks.
❓ "Despi has Withdrawn"
❌ Incorrect
✅ Facts: Despi is a Candidate in the race for #FlindersVotes, with lots of support. The #TeamDespi vibe is positive!
#ausvotes #auspol
There has been faux topics about Despi O'Connor shared over the few weeks.
❓ "Despi has Withdrawn"
❌ Incorrect
✅ Facts: Despi is a Candidate in the race for #FlindersVotes, with lots of support. The #TeamDespi vibe is positive!
#ausvotes #auspol
#FlindersVotes factcheck
❓ "Despi is splitting the independent vote"
❌ Incorrect.
✅ Facts
10 candidates
Every vote matters
1st of 10 candidates to declare for #ausvotes
Campaigns daily for 6mths
Works tirelessly amongst her community, today and as a #Volunteers, over 15yrs 👉🏼
❓ "Despi is splitting the independent vote"
❌ Incorrect.
✅ Facts
10 candidates
Every vote matters
1st of 10 candidates to declare for #ausvotes
Campaigns daily for 6mths
Works tirelessly amongst her community, today and as a #Volunteers, over 15yrs 👉🏼
#FlindersVotes factcheck
❓ "Despi is ineligible to campaign for #Flinders"
❌ Incorrect
✅ Facts
Despi has resigned as a state primary school Teacher
On leave without pay for 18mths (no benefits).
If she had worked in private education (system) that would have been NO issue.
❓ "Despi is ineligible to campaign for #Flinders"
❌ Incorrect
✅ Facts
Despi has resigned as a state primary school Teacher
On leave without pay for 18mths (no benefits).
If she had worked in private education (system) that would have been NO issue.
COVID+? Apply for a postal vote
2.5 million postal vote applications have been received (⬆️from 1.5m in 2019)
"If it’s close, this level of postal votes makes an election night indication of who forms government less likely.”
Media release: aec.gov.au/media/2022/05-…
#ausvotes
2.5 million postal vote applications have been received (⬆️from 1.5m in 2019)
"If it’s close, this level of postal votes makes an election night indication of who forms government less likely.”
Media release: aec.gov.au/media/2022/05-…
#ausvotes
“We simply cannot count postal votes on election night - we’re already at the limits of our staffing capacity, and work health and safety responsibilities, with the count of election day and pre-poll votes”
- Electoral Commissioner, Tom Rogers.
- Electoral Commissioner, Tom Rogers.
“With 105,000 staff, we’re temporarily one of the nation’s largest employers, which is an undoubted resourcing challenge during COVID-19.”
Postal vote counts have been brought forward in the counting timetable from 2019 when it commenced on the Tuesday after election day.
Postal vote counts have been brought forward in the counting timetable from 2019 when it commenced on the Tuesday after election day.
We woke up this morning and our beautiful mural (left) had been painted over (right).
Imagine being the painter sent to whitewash over “Active Hope”!
#ActiveHope #Mon4Kooyong #KooyongVotes #ausvotes
Imagine being the painter sent to whitewash over “Active Hope”!
#ActiveHope #Mon4Kooyong #KooyongVotes #ausvotes
The mural comprised 4 panels, one designed by long-term Kew resident W.H. Chong, the remainder by renowned Melbourne designer Georgia Perry. The mural was painted by Wall Lords, a local arts group.
Left: statements from W.H. Chong and Wall Lords
Right: Jess from Wall Lords
Left: statements from W.H. Chong and Wall Lords
Right: Jess from Wall Lords
Our political opponents are accusing us of vandalism(!), but the story is much more complex than that.
Something happened between Tuesday and Friday, and we’re hoping to get to the bottom of it ASAP.
We have been subjected to so many dirty tricks!
Something happened between Tuesday and Friday, and we’re hoping to get to the bottom of it ASAP.
We have been subjected to so many dirty tricks!
One of the most enduring myths of Australian politics is that the Australian populace is, by and large, inherently and unmovingly conservative.
This idea drives so much of our political and media commentary. However, it simply isn't true. A 🧵.
#auspol #ausvotes
This idea drives so much of our political and media commentary. However, it simply isn't true. A 🧵.
#auspol #ausvotes
This myth has underpinned the current election campaign. The ALP's 'small target' strategy is based on a belief that Australians will reject bold progressive policies. Katherine Deves' anti-trans comments are part of a strategy to appeal to a core conservatism within the country.
Both parties, and many of their supporters, fundamentally believe in an inherent conservatism in Aus.
However, when you start to look at polling on issues this narrative falls apart. Australians are far more progressive than the political class assumes.
Let's have a look.
However, when you start to look at polling on issues this narrative falls apart. Australians are far more progressive than the political class assumes.
Let's have a look.
#WATCH: One of the first High Commissioners to the Solomon Islands Trevor Sofield tried to approach the PM at an event in Northern Tasmania. The PM’s security detail prevented him from talking to Scott Morrison. @SBSNews #ausvotes
The PM was rushed away from the venue. You can see the man trying to talk to him and being physically prevented by the security detail.
Mr Sofield just happened to be at the dairy cafe that the PM was visiting in the seat of Lyons. He said the AFP “manhandled him” as he was trying to approach the PM.
Words matter.
I have analysed the frequency of words spoken by PM and OL over the past month (11 Apr - 11 May) from transcripts of speeches/remarks, pressers, doorstops & interviews. These are all available on each leaders' respective campaign website.
#ausvotes #auspol
/1
I have analysed the frequency of words spoken by PM and OL over the past month (11 Apr - 11 May) from transcripts of speeches/remarks, pressers, doorstops & interviews. These are all available on each leaders' respective campaign website.
#ausvotes #auspol
/1
It's the Oz election campaign & there's confusion among politicians & journos about trans-identifying minors & their access to surgery. Short answer: biological girls under 18 *do* get trans mastectomy in Australia. To say it doesn't happen is wrong. #AusPol #AusVotes #Health
In Australia, 15 is the youngest known age for "top surgery", as it's often called online. See this news report & screenshot.
theaustralian.com.au/nation/ignore-…
theaustralian.com.au/nation/ignore-…
Family Court has been the only info source on under-18 trans surgery. Until the 2018 case re Matthew, the court had to give the green light, even if docs & parents agreed. This was said to be "discriminatory". Now, judges only hear under-18 surgery cases if there's a dispute.
Pt1/2 In which Scott Morrison is asked again if he's a buffoon for describing the NSW ICAC a kangaroo court, stands by his comments & proceeds to explain how state & federal jurisdictions are different. #ausvotes
Pt 2/2 "I don't care if barristers & lawyers up there in Macquarie Street - I don't mean in the parliament - I mean sitting around in the barristers' chambers disagree with me." Scott Morrison has never had much truck with barristers & their jabots & all the rest of it. #ausvotes
Scott Morrison deep in Campbell Newman country now who described the Qld judiciary as living in ivory towers. Then came the backlash culminating in Gary Crooke QC & later Tony Fitzgerald QC appearing on ABC News. There was no way back. #ausvotes brisbanetimes.com.au/national/queen…
Pt1/5 Scott Morrison still standing by Liberal candidate for Warringah, Katherine Deves, who falsely claimed children were being mutilated by gender reassignment surgery in Australia. #ausvotes
Pt2/5 "I'm not a surgeon so I will rely on the chief medical officer who uses the appropriate - well I'm not the chief medical officer." Scott Morrison refuses to equate Katherine Deves' false description of gender reassignment with his continued support for her. #ausvotes
Pt3/5 Scott Morrison continues avoiding the point that children cannot undergo gender reassignment surgery in Australia. #ausvotes
Morrison announced a $220 million upgrade to Epping Rd today, split 50/50 w/ NSW
Bit of history to this
It's a NSW Govt project that was announced by Minister Anthony Roberts 17 July 2018
Cost in 2018: $50 million
Cost in 2022: $220 million
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #ausvotes2022
Bit of history to this
It's a NSW Govt project that was announced by Minister Anthony Roberts 17 July 2018
Cost in 2018: $50 million
Cost in 2022: $220 million
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #ausvotes2022
So, the re-announcement Morrison made today is EXACT same commitment the NSW took to their 2019 state election & never delivered
Now, it's getting a re-run at quadruple+ the price!
Described as "One of Sydney's worst bottlenecks" then & now
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #ausvotes2022
Now, it's getting a re-run at quadruple+ the price!
Described as "One of Sydney's worst bottlenecks" then & now
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #ausvotes2022
Morrison used almost identical words in today's presser as Min Roberts' 2018 media release
Minister Fletcher denies it's pork-barreling of Bennelong
$110 million for 1 electorate?
For a failed NSW Lib Govt pledge?
That's pork-barreling
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #ausvotes2022
Minister Fletcher denies it's pork-barreling of Bennelong
$110 million for 1 electorate?
For a failed NSW Lib Govt pledge?
That's pork-barreling
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #ausvotes2022
3. Good start for the sitting LNP MP in @the_chronicle_ exit poll on day 1 of #GroomVotes pre-polling. Please follow @GillespieTom17, who’s on the ground for the Toowoomba daily.
@SuzieHolt4Groom is third after Labor.
@SuzieHolt4Groom is third after Labor.
We'd like to set the record straight; Scott Morrison never "blew the whistle on aged care" as he claimed in the Leader's debate Sunday night. Years of campaigning from aged care workers, mounting ANMF research and evidence, a taskforce and community concern led to
🧵
🧵
2/
the shocking expose on aged care by @4corners - It was after that expose Scott Morrison was forced to finally respond. Did he fix the problems in the sector? No. He yet again, ‘kicked the can down the road’ deflecting action by calling a Royal Commission into Aged Care.
the shocking expose on aged care by @4corners - It was after that expose Scott Morrison was forced to finally respond. Did he fix the problems in the sector? No. He yet again, ‘kicked the can down the road’ deflecting action by calling a Royal Commission into Aged Care.
3/
Despite the Royal Commission interim report titled “Neglect" and a Final Report detailing a system where the extent of substandard care is ‘deeply concerning and unacceptable by any measure’ with 148 recommendations for action, the Morrison Government continued to fail to act
Despite the Royal Commission interim report titled “Neglect" and a Final Report detailing a system where the extent of substandard care is ‘deeply concerning and unacceptable by any measure’ with 148 recommendations for action, the Morrison Government continued to fail to act
Pt1/4 "I don't accept the premise of your question." A lot of questions on the Religious Discrimination Act to follow. Basically, Scott Morrison is not implementing anything outside of the RDA. He blames Labor for it not being passed in the parliament. #ausvotes
Pt2/4 Scott Morrison claims there is no evidence that any LGBTIQA+ students are being expelled. Says it's not the point that it can happen, the point is that it doesn't. Blames Labor for any deficiencies in the Sexual Discriminations Act because they wrote the laws. #ausvotes
Pt3/4 "I don't think you are across the legislation."
"I think I am."
Scott Morrison says the RDA will trigger the law reform review for LGBTIQA+ students & maintains Australians of religious faith are discriminated against every day. #ausvotes
"I think I am."
Scott Morrison says the RDA will trigger the law reform review for LGBTIQA+ students & maintains Australians of religious faith are discriminated against every day. #ausvotes
A to Z of scandals, failures & fuck-ups during Morrison's Prime Ministership
It not an exhaustive list, more of a living document
🧵
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #insiders #AusVotes2022
It not an exhaustive list, more of a living document
🧵
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #insiders #AusVotes2022
@catiemcleod is filing for the failing Daily Tele – circulation down 250,000 in 5 years.
"Labor leader Anthony Albanese has blown up at a reporter after an embarrassing blunder during a fiery press conference." She is told what to write by editor Ben English. #ausvotes /2
"Labor leader Anthony Albanese has blown up at a reporter after an embarrassing blunder during a fiery press conference." She is told what to write by editor Ben English. #ausvotes /2
2."A fired-up Anthony Albanese has told reporters he is 'in charge' of his own press conferences.
"The Labor leader appeared to be riled up as he spoke to the travelling journalists accompanying him on the election trail in Marrickville in Sydney’s inner west on Friday.
/3
"The Labor leader appeared to be riled up as he spoke to the travelling journalists accompanying him on the election trail in Marrickville in Sydney’s inner west on Friday.
/3
3. "Asked how he was feeling about his campaign after contracting Covid-19 a fortnight ago, Mr Albanese asserted he was “match-fit” despite feeling some lingering effects from the virus. #auspoll2022
/4
/4
#AlboForPM
Didn't recite Labor's comprehensive 6-pt plan👇word-for-word on cue👉media goes ballistic
Morrison
Didn't call Sogavare, dropped ball, China moved in, threatened nat sec; also called a 'buffoon' by an SC👉 media goes meh
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #AusVotes2022 #insiders
Didn't recite Labor's comprehensive 6-pt plan👇word-for-word on cue👉media goes ballistic
Morrison
Didn't call Sogavare, dropped ball, China moved in, threatened nat sec; also called a 'buffoon' by an SC👉 media goes meh
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #AusVotes2022 #insiders
If you would like to read Labor's NDIS policy....
You can find it here
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #AusVotes2022 #AusVotes22 #AlboForPM #insiders #QandA
alp.org.au/policies/a-bet…
You can find it here
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #AusVotes2022 #AusVotes22 #AlboForPM #insiders #QandA
alp.org.au/policies/a-bet…
And, here's #AlboForPM's media release with 6-point plan
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #AusVotes2022 #AusVotes22 #AlboForPM #insiders #QandA
anthonyalbanese.com.au/media-centre/a…
🐝
#auspol #ausvotes #AusVotes2022 #AusVotes22 #AlboForPM #insiders #QandA
anthonyalbanese.com.au/media-centre/a…
