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2021 has been a great year for our #BASON predictions @OraclumIS


Because in 2021, over a period of 22 weeks, we have made stunningly accurate predictions of the #markets, and made a whopping 107% return from these predictions!

A quick thread 🧵on how we did this 👇
1/ First, how does #BASON work?
We ask people where they & their friends think the markets will end up at the end of each week, while applying network analysis to control for their groupthink bias.

Here’s a video explaining it:
2/ We’ve been running the whole thing as a survey competition where we asked stock market enthusiasts to give their predictions on the weekly movements of Dow, S&P500, BTC, WTI oil price, and the 10Y yield + 4 stocks: $AAPL , $TSLA , $GME , $AMC
Read 17 tweets
Last week the #BASON once again called 8 out of 9 in the right direction, and once again had pinpoint accuracy for the Dow (0.6% error), the S&P (1.2% error), oil (0.5% error), TSLA (1.9% error), while the AAPL price prediction was almost perfect (0.02% error!).
In terms of collected profits on the trading strategy, this was the best week yet.

Our weekly profit was $2045, or an average 146% return!

This doubled our weekly winnings, and our total profits for the first 4 weeks stand at $4100.
Two strategies were used for the week:

(1) iron condor for the SPY 05/11, at 460/461 to 469/470

The S&P500 ended at 4697, but the SPY ended just below our upper interval, at 468.5, allowing us to capture the full $400 from its initial sale. Close, but in the money :)
Read 8 tweets
An options investment strategy based on our #BASON predictions has delivered a 49.9% return since May, compared to a 10% passive S&P return.

And all that while not even running during August and September!

A quick thread on how it works? 👇🧵 Image
1/ This 50% return is actually severely underestimated, given that we took a portfolio of $10,000 where we only invest $1000 each week (the risk is greater actually, we risk to lose $1000 used to buy the call options, and $600 on the iron condor).
2/ What options strategy do we use? Each week we invest $1,000 (risk $1,600) into:
(1) an iron condor strategy that uses the BASON prediction’s confidence intervals for the $SPY, and
(2) an $SPY call (or put) option based on the predicted direction for that week.
Read 10 tweets

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