Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BASON
Most recents (5)
It’s been 15 months of doing #BASON predictions @OraclumIS and live trading them using our options strategy
I've shared the results with you every week, during good times and bad.
Now I wanna show you how a BASON-led full portfolio performed during this year's bear run 🧵
I've shared the results with you every week, during good times and bad.
Now I wanna show you how a BASON-led full portfolio performed during this year's bear run 🧵
1/
First, about the unusually good results (+155% CAGR, 10.6 Sharpe)
Basically, it's about (1) asymmetric skew - when we're wrong, we lose very little (up to 5%), and when we're right we can make considerably more.
and (2) profits are taken weekly (each Fri) and are compounded.
First, about the unusually good results (+155% CAGR, 10.6 Sharpe)
Basically, it's about (1) asymmetric skew - when we're wrong, we lose very little (up to 5%), and when we're right we can make considerably more.
and (2) profits are taken weekly (each Fri) and are compounded.
2/
This return (and the weekly volatility in the graph above) is for the *whole* portfolio, where options were only 10% of it.
If we just look at the options part, its return was >1400%
But I'm not gonna place so much risk on only one strategy, ofc Hence the diversification 👇
This return (and the weekly volatility in the graph above) is for the *whole* portfolio, where options were only 10% of it.
If we just look at the options part, its return was >1400%
But I'm not gonna place so much risk on only one strategy, ofc Hence the diversification 👇
Yes, we're back with our competition today.
So let's go through a quick thread of what's been going on in the markets during the past few weeks,
and whether the 10% 🐻 rally is over or not...
+ some cool new stats from the #BASON
🧵👇
So let's go through a quick thread of what's been going on in the markets during the past few weeks,
and whether the 10% 🐻 rally is over or not...
+ some cool new stats from the #BASON
🧵👇
1/
Despite having yet another high inflation print on July 13th (9.1% CPI),
and the Fed hiking another 75bps two weeks later bringing the FOMC rate to 2.5%,
the markets rallied to over 10% the past 4 weeks.
Why?
Despite having yet another high inflation print on July 13th (9.1% CPI),
and the Fed hiking another 75bps two weeks later bringing the FOMC rate to 2.5%,
the markets rallied to over 10% the past 4 weeks.
Why?
2/
Well, investors were hooked on a so-called Fed pivot (and a potential ‘soft landing’)
Powell said that by raising rates to 2.5% they’ve reached a neutral level of interest rates.
This was seen as a clear sign of relief.
Well, investors were hooked on a so-called Fed pivot (and a potential ‘soft landing’)
Powell said that by raising rates to 2.5% they’ve reached a neutral level of interest rates.
This was seen as a clear sign of relief.
2021 has been a great year for our #BASON predictions @OraclumIS
Why?
Because in 2021, over a period of 22 weeks, we have made stunningly accurate predictions of the #markets, and made a whopping 107% return from these predictions!
A quick thread 🧵on how we did this 👇
Why?
Because in 2021, over a period of 22 weeks, we have made stunningly accurate predictions of the #markets, and made a whopping 107% return from these predictions!
A quick thread 🧵on how we did this 👇
1/ First, how does #BASON work?
We ask people where they & their friends think the markets will end up at the end of each week, while applying network analysis to control for their groupthink bias.
Here’s a video explaining it:
We ask people where they & their friends think the markets will end up at the end of each week, while applying network analysis to control for their groupthink bias.
Here’s a video explaining it:
2/ We’ve been running the whole thing as a survey competition where we asked stock market enthusiasts to give their predictions on the weekly movements of Dow, S&P500, BTC, WTI oil price, and the 10Y yield + 4 stocks: $AAPL , $TSLA , $GME , $AMC
Last week the #BASON once again called 8 out of 9 in the right direction, and once again had pinpoint accuracy for the Dow (0.6% error), the S&P (1.2% error), oil (0.5% error), TSLA (1.9% error), while the AAPL price prediction was almost perfect (0.02% error!).
In terms of collected profits on the trading strategy, this was the best week yet.
Our weekly profit was $2045, or an average 146% return!
This doubled our weekly winnings, and our total profits for the first 4 weeks stand at $4100.
Our weekly profit was $2045, or an average 146% return!
This doubled our weekly winnings, and our total profits for the first 4 weeks stand at $4100.
Two strategies were used for the week:
(1) iron condor for the SPY 05/11, at 460/461 to 469/470
The S&P500 ended at 4697, but the SPY ended just below our upper interval, at 468.5, allowing us to capture the full $400 from its initial sale. Close, but in the money :)
(1) iron condor for the SPY 05/11, at 460/461 to 469/470
The S&P500 ended at 4697, but the SPY ended just below our upper interval, at 468.5, allowing us to capture the full $400 from its initial sale. Close, but in the money :)
An options investment strategy based on our #BASON predictions has delivered a 49.9% return since May, compared to a 10% passive S&P return.
And all that while not even running during August and September!
A quick thread on how it works? 👇🧵
And all that while not even running during August and September!
A quick thread on how it works? 👇🧵
1/ This 50% return is actually severely underestimated, given that we took a portfolio of $10,000 where we only invest $1000 each week (the risk is greater actually, we risk to lose $1000 used to buy the call options, and $600 on the iron condor).
2/ What options strategy do we use? Each week we invest $1,000 (risk $1,600) into:
(1) an iron condor strategy that uses the BASON prediction’s confidence intervals for the $SPY, and
(2) an $SPY call (or put) option based on the predicted direction for that week.
(1) an iron condor strategy that uses the BASON prediction’s confidence intervals for the $SPY, and
(2) an $SPY call (or put) option based on the predicted direction for that week.
