Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Baghuz

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Its here - the ISW report warning that #ISIS is back in #Iraq & #Syria

From me with @thestudyofwar’s Brandon Wallace & Jason Zhou

Full report available online here: understandingwar.org/report/isiss-s…

Key points & graphics to follow
1/
#ISIS's "remnants" are much stronger than al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI/ISI) was when US forces withdrew from Iraq in 2011

ISIS has ~30K fighters. AQI had ~1K

ISIS has relatively intact leadership; AQIs was decimated

This chart gives a rough overall comparison (sources in report)
2/
ISIS's second comeback could be worse than its resurgence from 2012-2014

Our report explains how #ISIS likely already has the capacity to seize an urban center in #Iraq or #Syria but is waiting to build strength & degrade enemies so it can seize many at once & hold them

3/
Read 19 tweets
1) BREAKING: #ISIS’ Furqan issues new video showing leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, marking the first time he is shown in a video since his July 2014 sermon at the Great Mosque in #Mosul
2) The video shows Baghdadi in a casual conversational setting with others (their faces blurred). He talks about war against "Crusaders" and about battles in #Baghouz #Syria being over, indicating that this interview was filmed somewhat recently.
3) In the vid, titled “In the Hospitality of the Emir of the Believers,” Baghdadi praises #SriLanka attackers over images of the attackers/attack (though not in the visual interview section; the audio may have thus been added via a later recording)--calling it revenge for Baghouz
Read 6 tweets
1. Since #IS issued its #SriLanka claim, there's been lots of discussion on a) whether it inspired/directed the attackers and b) whether it was in response to #Christchurch. These are interesting, important discussions to have, but we mustn't lose sight of the wood for the trees.
2. It is critical that we think about the overarching logic behind this attack, not just what happened and how it happened. I’ll be doing that over the next few tweets.
3. First of all, it is important to state that an attack like this has been coming for a lonnng time and #IS/#IS supporters are certain to have others planned. It was not just a response to #Christchurch (and nor will future attacks be).
Read 11 tweets
When will the Syrian people be able to live in peace? Syria 8 years of invasion, suffering, torture, deaths, biggest refugee crisis, destruction, wasn’t enough for you, US-led Coalition?

#Síria #USLedCoalition #USWarCrimes #WarCrimes #USCrimesAgainstHumanity
#USTerrorism #Terror
By @BREAKING_PTV
Explosions heard around #Aleppo international airport

#Syria
Breaking: Several 'enemy airstrikes' target the Syrian military in northern Aleppo aml.ink/F8qb2
Read 139 tweets
#ISIS down "less than a single square mile” in #Baghuz #Syria, @CENTCOM Cmdr Gen Joseph Votel to tell #HASC in prepared remarks
“Reduction of the physical caliphate is a monumental military accomplishment, but the fight against #ISIS and violent extremism is far from over” @CENTCOM’s Votel warns #HASC, calling evacuation of #Baghuz “calculated”
“Observations by our men & women on the ground highlights that the #ISIS population being evacuated from the remaining vestiges of the caliphate largely remains unrepentant, unbroken & radicalized” per @CENTCOM’s Gen Votel
Read 33 tweets
A quick thread on a human moment I saw on the side of a dusty road in eastern Syria today.
This is Karam, a 19-year-old from Mosul, who is among the thousands of women and children who emerged from ISIS’s final territory in #Baghuz in recent days.
That’s her one-year-old daughter Habiba in her arms. Habiba’s father is a Tajik ISIS fighter who stayed behind in Baghuz.
Read 8 tweets
1. In other news, the battle rages on against #IS's last pocket of territory in #Syria. Looks like there’s about a square kilometre left. This pic (via @NotWoofers) was reportedly taken from inside it today.
2. Although #IS has been pretty vocal about what’s happening elsewhere (think #Nigeria/#Yemen/#Iraq), there's not been a peep from it about #Baghuz since Tuesday.

Usually in this context (think #Raqqa, #Mosul and #Hajin), radio silence is a sign that it has given up.
3. That being said, #IS is set to publish its newspaper tonight. Let’s see what it has in store.
Read 6 tweets
Where does #SDF keep captured #ISIS terrorists and their families?

This thread will explore SDF detention facilities in northern Syria that have been running well beyond their capacity after an influx of surrendered #ISIS fighters.
The main six prisons are located in #Hasaka province and contain around 2700 people, the major part being male #ISIS terrorists. Fighters and their families enjoy some minor perks compared to other inmates such as members of SDF detained for dereliction of duty, corruption, etc.
There's more to these perks, it will be covered later in the thread.
Read 17 tweets
Whelp time to get this done. #Thread on the absolutely embarrassing loss that the #SDF just took in the #Hajin pocket.

DISCLAIMER: This thread will contain heavy amounts of salt.
At the time of this tweet, information I received was 3 hours old and attacks were ongoing.

#DMC forces had been forced out of the area in #Susah blocking #Marashidah wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=3… and were holding positions in the Palestine neighborhood
wikimapia.org/#lang=en&lat=3…

DMC retreated to areas with #YPG in this neighborhood. At this time inghimasi units appeared from tunnels behind and within the YPG positions. Because apparently no one had fully cleared the area. This caused a serious issue and caused YPG to retreat.
Read 18 tweets

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