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I'm sympathetic to the arbitrage argument against #trend-following but there are several compelling counter-arguments:
1. #CTA assets are still a vanishingly small proportion of total global market cap. Ex-Bridgewater they're prob less than $200B vs $100T global market.
I'm sympathetic to the arbitrage argument against #trend-following but there are several compelling counter-arguments:
1. #CTA assets are still a vanishingly small proportion of total global market cap. Ex-Bridgewater they're prob less than $200B vs $100T global market.
2. While prices are set at the margin, CTA trading (esp. ex-BW) still represents a single-digit proportion of total trading.
3. Trend is a low signal indicator. #MachineLearning techniques are unlikely to emphasize trend features. More likely they will be combined with other features in Bayesian / decision tree frameworks, but they won’t be dominant trading signals.
