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A few thoughts on the #BirminghamErdington by-election. [Thread]
1/n Top-line is that the main thing that matters is the result - and the result was that Labour held the seat with a 4.5% swing from the Tories. No embarrassment; job done; move on.
1/n Top-line is that the main thing that matters is the result - and the result was that Labour held the seat with a 4.5% swing from the Tories. No embarrassment; job done; move on.
2/n However, that's a distinctly underwhelming result for Labour.
My rule-of-thumb is that by-elections where there are no special circumstances produce a swing about 50% bigger that current polling.
On that basis, Labour should have have had about a 15% swing (ie a 40% lead).
My rule-of-thumb is that by-elections where there are no special circumstances produce a swing about 50% bigger that current polling.
On that basis, Labour should have have had about a 15% swing (ie a 40% lead).
3/n The controversy around the Labour candidate's comments might well have had some effect on that but the low turnout just suggests that while there may be little enthusiasm for the govt, there's no great anger to protest against it right now either.
