Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BitcoinMiners

Most recents (3)

Thought of the day:

We are often wrong....15% for cycle bottoms, but right 85% of the time. Often 50% initial draw downs bag 10x, as the sitting proves out in our favour. We can't be right unless we are wrong in the very short term.
Theme and Position sizing is key...

Each new asymmetric theme has a 5-7% weighting

Each position within the theme has a 1-2% weighting

Most themes produce 8-13x returns on average
If we are extremely compelled, which is very irregular, but is aligned with putting the buckets out, we will go to 20% in a theme and up to 5% in a position.

This would be for a repeatable asymmetric theme we have been successful in multiple times in the last 40 years.
Read 7 tweets
Assessing the survivability of #bitcoinminers

A) Understand the debt structure, particularly what falls due within the next 18 months
B) Assess the liquidity position today & over the next 18 months
C) Check on operating cashflow positivity at current #Bitcoin prices & lower
1/
D) What is the end of 1H 2023 liquidity picture like.. (cash+coins-debtpayments-/+6 month cash margin less capex obligations)
...positive margin of safety is required otherwise material dilution and/or bankruptcy becomes a high risk.
....conduct the same exercise yr end 2023.
2/2
Thoughts on potential cashflow recovery for #bitcoinminers

#Bitcoin pricing and sector operating CF margins:
1H 2024 $30,000 17%
2H 2024 $40,000 37%
1H 2025 $60,000 58%
2H 2025 $80,000 70%
1H 2026 $100,000 75%
2H 2026 $120,000 80%

Example: 20 #Bitcoin per day 2H 2025..

1/2
Read 4 tweets
In this #Bitcoin bull run, don't underestimate the added impact on available BTC supply from:
1. #BitcoinMiners โ›๏ธ aggressively HODLing
2. BTC getting locked up on the #LightningNetwork โšก๏ธ
๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿฝ
NA miners are leveraging capital markets (debt & equity) for equipment upgrades & expansion

Miners have never had so many options (both debt & equity) vs prior halving epochs, alleviating the need to sell #Bitcoin

Building a BTC treasury is a winning capital markets strategy
2/ Image
China's mining ban has been a boon to North American miners. Bolstered by the resulting difficulty drop, NA miners have been accumulating record levels of BTC

BUT newly mined Bitcoin are increasingly HODLed by public miners vs sold on markets, contributing to supply squeezes
3/ Image
Read 7 tweets

Related hashtags

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!