Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BlackSwan

Most recents (7)

Tim Montgomerie is going to advise the government on social justice.
Let's take a look at his past record, shall we?
(@SebastianEPayne, in case it might interest you...)
@SebastianEPayne @ByDonkeys there might be a few gems that might interest you here.
Let's start with this.
Note that "best thinkers" may not be the "best achievers"
Read 21 tweets
Good morning!😀Trust you are well and enjoying this Saturday morning. Deflation is developing in economy. Signs are very clear. Black swan will appear at some point. Stay tuned for a heads-up on my perspectives on market #HZupdates
#Copper sets the direction for real economy. My EW-model for Copper sets target A or more likely B to be reached some time in late 2021 or early 2022. Copper = Real economy. This is a pot. timeline for the total duration of the coming crisis (deflation & stagflation) #HZupdates
Zooming in on #Copper, we have seen the expected development this week. Break has been confirmed by small retest and acceleration. I think we will see further downside develop soon - but cannot rule out a pot. 2nd retest. The outlook for Copper is deflationary #HZupdates
Read 12 tweets
Good morning all! 🙂 Morning in Copenhagen - listening to Ludovico while I'm updating analyses and family sleeps. Fantastic piece of music: #AllisGood
Time for some #HZupdates. Let's take a look at the market from the way I see it. Where is that deflation, I have been forecasting? Did CBs succeed to do their magic and eliminate that threat? What about the Kondratiev's winter - over/done? Stay tuned! 🙂
AUDUSD is inflation gauge. Rally=inflation up; Decline=inflation down. LT perspective looks like this. Decline in 2008 = wave A. Rally up to 2011 = wave B. We have since been in wave C. Wave 5 will take us to ~0.5. Note the horizontal line. When this goes -->free fall #HZupdates
Read 28 tweets
El mundo del cine y sus increíbles maravillas. Abrimos hilo sobre hechos, curiosidades y datos de cine que tanto fascinan. ¡Vamos allá!
#Cine #curiosidades #elMundoDelCine #hilo #DeshilachandoCine
En los discursos de aceptación de los Oscars, se le ha dado a Steven Spielberg las gracias más que a dios. Aquí están las estadísticas que a quienes se le han dado más las gracias con una estatuilla en la mano.
#Cine #Spielberg #elMundoDelCine #hilo #DeshilachandoCine #Oscars
La leyenda urbana de que todos los relojes en Pulp Fiction están parados a las 4:20 es falsa. Algunos sí, pero no todos ni mucho menos. Hay relojes importantes en la trama que ni de cerca.
#Cine #PulpFiction #elMundoDelCine #hilo #DeshilachandoCine #Tarantino
Read 126 tweets
#Bitcoin is bigger than all the companies that try to capitalise on its #blockchain #technology.

#Bitcoin + #IoT + #DeepLearning will transform the global political & financial system without permission.

#blockchain #LightningNetwork #fintech #blockchain #disruptiveinnovation
#Decentralisation will take time.

#Bitcoin is decentralised although still attached to a centralised world.

⚠️ This is the alpha.
⚠️ #LightningNetwork is the beta.
If you want to change society you need to change the social paradigm, or offer an incentive greater than money to discourage greed. #bitcoin #LightningNetwork ⚡️
Read 10 tweets
Weekly moves, based on close to close. Previous 100 weeks reference used

Since 1997, there has been :
3 sigma moves -> 22
4 sigma moves -> 3
5 sigma moves -> 5

The week ending 5th Oct was a true #BlackSwan
Whenever this kind of moves occurs, they tend to cluster. that is , the chances of getting large weekly moves increases and will happen with increasing frequency.
A bounce generally comes in the next week, VIX continues to increase in the next 30 day period
Read 13 tweets
What does 'The Black Swan' really imply? What is that 'risky' event which Nasim Taleb refers to in his book? Unfortunately there are plenty of case studies available for Indian Investors. Sharing one such hair-raising development in a listed company: 1/5
Mumbai Municipality apparently has asked Bombay Exhibition Centre operated by a listed company NESCO to immediately stop conducting exhibitions on complaints by local residents regarding traffic congestion on Western Express Highway. 2/5
This exhibition centre brings millions of business travellers every year from all over the country and abroad to Mumbai and has over the years paid 100s of crores in taxes to government. 3/5
Read 6 tweets

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