Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Bonds

Most recents (24)

I've written on this few times before, but I just cannot help it.

It's truly strange how analysts and economists keep making predictions about "stable growth", while we've been in constant state of central bank induced bailouts for over two years.

Why the complacency? 1/
The first two bailouts are not generally acknowledged, but they were important.

In November 2017, the BoJ and PBoC stopped the rout in the junk bond ETF:s that threatened to spread to the asset markets.

This went mostly unnoticed, like the following bailout. 2/
@GeoffCutmore
In March 2018, the #ECB was forced to bailout European corporate debt markets that became clogged due to over-issuance, as corporations were preparing for the end of QE and rise in interest rates.

The BoJ also participated by increasing its stock ETF purchases. 3/
@oliviabvoz
Read 10 tweets
India MPC - Initial thoughts
1. No cut was a surprise. I had gone in with 35!
2. Looks like the RBI listened to the market which has been saying that further cuts will not help revive growth.
3. Clearly RBI is satisfied with transmission - 137 in call money and 218 in CPs! /1
India MPC - Initial thoughts
Contd.

4. Inflation per RBI seems a much greater risk than the market sees it. H2 revision from 3.5-3.7 to 4.7-5.1 is massive!
5. Growth revised down from 6.1 to 5 but there is belief that whatever the govt is doing to revive growth is /will work /2
India MPC - Initial thoughts
contd

Bonds have expectedly sold off more than 10 bps. Expect 10 yr to settle around 6.50%. Rupee seems unchanged at 71.57 and Nifty is holding above 12k.
/3
Read 4 tweets
#Moodys has pulled down its growth forecast for FY19 to 5.8%. Only surprise is why it’s not even lower. In the past year growth has collapsed from 8% to 5%. /1
@threadreaderapp

#India #CPI #GDP #RBI #bonds #inflation #ratecut #NBFC #jobs #credit #NPA #NCLT #growth
On the other hand #CPI is now at 4.6%. The laxmanrekha of 4% has been breached. A mix of drought, floods and unseasonal rain is driving food prices up. Core #inflation continues to fall to 3.7% reflecting the slowdown. /2
#India #GDP #RBI #bonds #ratecut #NBFC #jobs #credit #NPA
The wisemen and women of the economy have only one mantra - Cut, Pray, Hope. When in doubt cut rates.135 bps done but transmission is limited. We are told don’t look at nominal, real rates are still high. A single large cut is required. /3
#India #CPI #GDP #RBI #bonds #inflation
Read 16 tweets
India's Bond market is both growing and contracting at the same time. Here's the how and why: (1/n) #bonds #Debt #Banking #StateofIndia
In value terms, bond market (outstanding value of corporate bonds), has grown at around 8.5% YoY in the first half of FY20. That is a slowdown from ~12% growth in FY19, but it is still growth. And overall credit growth in the economy itself has slowed. (2/n) #bonds #StateofIndia
In volume terms though the bond market (outstanding issues of corporate bonds) has been declining for 7 consecutive quarters. The number of outstanding issues are down almost 10% from the peak in September-2017! (3/n) #bonds #Debt #Banking #StateofIndia
Read 9 tweets
Jetzt #Schattenmacht #BlackRock im #ZDF.
Um 00:45 morgens.
Werden sicher wenige sehen.
#Merz & die 1% wird es freuen!
2. #BlackRock currently has just under US$7 trillion under management & with #Vanguard they control two thirds of all #ETFs.

Now if BlackRock decides to sell a bigger share because the market turns you can quickly get a "run for the exit", A RUN!

#Markets #Stocks #Merz
3. #BlackRock has major shareholdings in many of the global Top 500 companies.

In Germany BlackRock is a major shareholder in ALL #DAX-companies!

#Stocks #Markets #Merz #CDU
Read 12 tweets
After the buildup and the crash-course in my last post, here is my post analysing Promoter Financing market in India. The analysis attempts to explain the slowdown in promoter financing in India and brings out some interesting facts. Read on to know more. Thread 1/12
As per BSE data, the aggregate value of promoters' pledged shares was ~1.85 lakh crore as at Aug 23, 2019. In comparison, the value of promoters' pledged shares stood at ~Rs 2.5 lakh crore as at Aug 30, 2018. The fall in pledge levels indicate slowdown in promoter financing. 2/12
An ET article (July 22), observed that 'pledging of shares by promoters of NSE companies dropped to a six-year low'. Another ET article (Aug 15), noted that 'interest rates on loans against shares (LAS) have surged by about 300 basis points in the past 3 months'. 3/12
Read 18 tweets
Germany, yesterday, issued a 30-year bond that offers negative yield (average yield of -0.11%).

This typically means that investors are paying German government to hold their debt. Why would investors invest in such a bond? Thread 1/8
The coupon set on these bonds (or Bunds, as they are called in Germany) is 0% i.e. the government will not pay any interest at all on these bonds.

In comparison, if GoI issues a 30 year bond today, the interest rate offered would be ~7%. 2/8
A negative yield of -0.11% means that an investor in this bond will pay 11 basis points per year to German Govt to borrow the sum i.e. an investment of Rs. 100 in these bonds would yield ~Rs. 97 in 30 years, a loss of ~Rs. 3. 3/8
Read 13 tweets
Today I cover the Government Securities (G-Secs) market. G-Secs, in short, are debt instruments through which Government borrows from the public (banks, financial institutions etc.). This post covers the size, type of lenders, and other broad contours of G-Sec market. Thread 1/8
The total size of the G-Sec market is approx. 92.86 lakh crore. In comparison, the size of the listed equity market (total market capitalisation of all listed stocks) was 141.47 lakh crore in July, 2019. (2/8)
Out of the total borrowing of Rs. 92.86 lakh crore, ~ Rs. 64.49 lakh crore borrowing is from Central Govt and the remaining Rs. 28.37 lakh crore borrowing is from State Govts i.e. of the the total borrowings 69.45 % is from Central Govt and 30.55 % is from State Govts. (3/8)
Read 11 tweets
The Yes Bank scare for Mutual Funds (MFs)

Some MFs have significant exposure to subordinated/ perpetual bonds of Yes Bank. These MFs stare at huge valuation losses if the credit rating of these bonds is cut below investment grade. Thread (1/9)
The following MFs have major exposure to Basel II/ Basel III, subordinated/ perpetual bonds of Yes Bank (market value as at 31st July, 2019) -

a) Reliance Nippon ~ Rs. 2150 Cr.
b) Franklin Templeton ~ Rs. 540 Cr.
c) UTI ~ Rs. 445 Cr.
d) Kotak ~ Rs.115 Cr.

2/9
The Credit Rating of Yes Bank Basel III Perpetual (Tier I or AT1) bonds have been downgraded thrice by ICRA in a span of 9 months.

a) Nov 24, 2018 - downgraded to AA- from AA.
b) May 03, 2019 - downgraded to A from AA-.
c) July 24, 2019 - downgraded to BBB from A.

3/9
Read 13 tweets
I am revisiting the topic of Public Issue of Non-Convertible Debentures (NCDs) covered a couple of days back. Only this time, I am focusing on Subordinated (Tier II) NCDs that are slipped in (sometimes slyly) along with senior secured NCDs of NBFCs. Thread (1/9)
Refer to the picture, below (the pic is representative only). A subordinated NCD (circled in red) appears as one of the many maturity options. A naive investor may think that it is similar to other NCDs on offer, just that it has a longer maturity. (2/9)
What many investors are unaware of is the fact that subordinated NCDs are paid after senior NCD holders in-case the company goes into liquidation i.e. subscribers to option I to VIII NCDs, in the pic above, would be paid before payments are made to option IX to XI NCDs. (3/9)
Read 13 tweets
There have been a flurry of public issue of NCDs lately. These issues are primarily from NBFCs who are finding it tough to raise funds though banks and MFs. Here, I explain why the public issue NCDs are not in the interest of retail investors. Thread (1/9)
A) There is a common misconception that public issue NCDs are akin to Fixed Deposits (FDs). FDs of PSU banks are covered under the umbrella limit of 1 lakh deposit insurance. NCDs are not. A case in point is the expected loss to retail investors in DHFL public issue NCDs. 2/9
B) The rate offered by these NBFCs in public issue is much lower than what they offer in privately placed deals. Further, a substantial fee is cornered by brokers for selling these NCDs to retail investors. 3/9
Read 13 tweets
1/ AT ONE TIME, EVERY PIECE OF #PAPER MONEY WAS BACKED BY #GOLD. REMEMBER… FOR EVERY 20 DOLLAR BILL… THERE WAS $20 WORTH OF GOLD IN A #GOVERNMENT VAULT. NOT ANYMORE.

TODAY, GOVERNMENTS CREATE #CURRENCY BY FIRST CREATING BONDS OR TREASURY-BILLS.
2/
THESE #BONDS ARE SOLD IN THE #MARKET… GENERATING FUNDS FOR THE GOVERNMENT THAT ISSUED THEM.

LARGE #BANKS BUY U.S. BONDS TO FLIP THEM… SELLING THEM TO THE #FEDERAL RESERVE AT A PROFIT -- THIS IS THE MAGIC MONEY MACHINE. #FED
3/ YOU SEE… THE FED IS AMERICA’S #CENTRALBANK. BUT IT DOESN’T HAVE ANY MONEY, NO #CASH ON ITS BALANCE SHEETS.

WHEN A BANK BUYS A BOND AND TAKES IT TO THE FEDERAL RESERVE, THE FED SIMPLY SAYS “THANK YOU MR. BANKER, HERE’S THE PRINCIPAL AND SOME #PROFIT.”
Read 12 tweets
Some analysts seem to think, that #USDJPY must decline when/if #SP500 is to decline or crash. That is not the case! Observe yellow markings #HZupdates
#USDJPY and #Gold have strong inverse relationship. Both have formed triangles since 2015. Now - main direction will continue. USDJPY towards ~154 - and Gold towards ~800 USD #HZupdates
#Gold did bottom in 2015 - but only for a bounce! A "ZigZag-pattern" is defined by A-B-C waves. A from 2011-15 = 5 waves. B from 2015-19 = Triangle (abcde). Now 5 waves down in wave C. Decline may be very strong! #HZupdates
Read 10 tweets
@Halsrethink @RemainSovereign @TFMetals @BullionStar @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @AndrewBellBNN @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble @POTUS @TayTayLLP @ronanmanly @jimiuorio @MoneyMetals @stranahan When a central banker or economist mentions 'stimulus', they are talking about diluting the currency through debt currency issuance - to create REAL GROWTH.

This is the insanity & silly talk promoted by central bankers globally.

Nobody asks the question.

#centralbanking #gold
Read 55 tweets
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *U.S. WAITING TO HEAR FROM #CHINA ON TRADE DEAL, KUDLOW SAYS - BBG
*KUDLOW EXPECTS U.S.-CHINA MEETING IN MARCH IN MAR-A-LAGO
*TRUMP, LIGHTHIZER ARE VERY CLOSE, KUDLOW TELLS CNBC
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 #CHINA WOULD HAVE TO NOTE ANY FX INTERVENTION UNDER DEAL: KUDLOW - BBG
🇺🇸 🇨🇳 *MNUCHIN SAYS #CHINA #TRADE TALKS INCLUDE 150-PAGE DOCUMENT - BBG
Read 819 tweets
As you all know #deflation has been my theme for some time. It is obvious looking at charts like #Copper and #Oil. Here is #Oil. Ending Diagonal which will send Oil <23 USD during 2019/2020. This has been my call since top in 2018. It is >70% drop --> deflationary #HZupdates
#Copper shows same picture. #Deflation is coming. We are in wave 5 of C in expanding diagonal. Current bounce is wave 2 - will rally slightly higher - before major drop. I imagine this is what Powell starts getting indications on #HZupdates
Notice 2008 Q1-Q3 - during last deflationary phase. Fed had been tightening up to Sept. 2007 - and started lowering rates. BUT damage had been done to economy. World rolled over and #deflation /disinflation. It was from Q1-Q3 2008. #Copper plunged. Same situation now! #HZupdates
Read 22 tweets
#Equities #SP500 was rallying and the bulls are cheering. The excuse seems to be, that Powell has blinked. Remember 2007-09? Fed started lowering rates by September 07. Yet that did not prevent Financial markets to decline hard until March 2009 #HZupdates
The thing is, that when liquidity #crunch snowball gets rolling, some announcement from #Fed will not do the job. Down the line, Fed will need to scramble (QE or the like) to fight USD shortage. My LT #SP500 model remains like this. Major Bear market ABC-structure. #HZupdates
I will not reveal my EW-count for #SP500 here. That is reserved for subscribers and buyers of Weekly Update. Only say, that we have not seen an impulse wave since Sept high. I expect a MAJOR decline to set in rather soon, taking us to my bottom of wave A from LT-chart. #HZupdates
Read 17 tweets
#inflation #bonds $TLT
Charts from last night Australian time. Not updated for most recent ISM number.
1/
YoY% for average gasoline prices falling with the US 10 year yield YoY% and CPI YoY% following.
#USA #growthslowing
2/
US leading economic index YoY%, GS US financial conditions, and the St. @stlouisfed financial stress index all pointing to lower real gdp numbers for the US economy.
#USA #growthslowing
3/
If we advance GS financial conditions forward by 3 months it is likely that real GDP growth and leading economic indicators continue to track lower.
Read 12 tweets
Hi all 😀Great week in the market. Coming weeks will be very interesting - but likely decieving imo. Rally/drops in one direction only to shift direction again. Ready for some #HZupdates on #SP500, #EURUSD, #Gold, #Bonds etc.? Stay tuned!
Today I want to take on both #USD Bulls and Bears 😀 I hear a lot of either "USD hegemony is over" or "USD is going to soar for years to come". I think the truth is somewhat in between - but with a slight advantage to the Bull's side #HZupdates
Looking at the very long perspective, DXY has been in a decline. But - it has formed an ending diagonal, and the drop below trendline in 2008 was very likely THE bottom. Since it has been in wave 1 of the new Bull Market - which has formed a leading diagonal #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets
Read 4 tweets
@EmmaMuhleman1 @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @SantiagoAuFund @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @Halsrethink @AndrewBellBNN @JayTaylorMedia @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @TFMetals @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble One important difference in the cycles is that low interest rates steadily build-in distortion to the economy over time while the tightening cycle (esp. a rapid tighten) precipitates failures that quickly cascade through the economy. Criticality theory.

#EndTheFed
@EmmaMuhleman1 @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @SantiagoAuFund @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @Halsrethink @AndrewBellBNN @JayTaylorMedia @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @TFMetals @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble "I speak to more than a dozen ceos every single week. They all had high hopes. No longer."

"It changed in the last six weeks."

Anecdotes, but expected.

The Fed builds dysfunction into the economy with low rates - it shows when rates rise.

#EndTheFed

cnbc.com/2018/10/09/cra…
@EmmaMuhleman1 @jameshenryand @michaellebowitz @SantiagoAuFund @dlacalle_IA @DA_Stockman @RonPaul @RonPaulInstitut @MarkTOByrne @MarkYusko @ErikSTownsend @Halsrethink @AndrewBellBNN @JayTaylorMedia @realDonaldTrump @LouDobbs @Varneyco @MariaBartiromo @gatewaypundit @JeffSnider_AIP @TruthGundlach @epomboy @TFMetals @PaulCraigRobert @LanceRoberts @TheBubbleBubble Cramer's relay of plunging CEO sentiment fits w/ sudden dive in Consumer Metrics 'Weighted Composite Index' starting in September.

consumerindexes.com

A sharp break to be expected after years of zero Fed rate and then increased Fed rates. Criticality Theory.

#bonds #gold
Read 15 tweets
#IBelieve..

This is #TooGoodNotToShare..

We spend the best years of our lives waiting for a #Miracle when the miracle is #Life itself

We wait for approval,we wait for promotion,we wait for the bonus,we wait for freedom,we wait for a revelation AND in all this,we forget to live
Today, I make this promise to myself. No more waiting. I will live each day like it was the last day of my life. And I will live each day like it is the first day of the rest of my life with no regrets of the day that was..
I will be #Courageous.
Not courageous like a #Soldier under fire, but courageous enough to not wait. Courageous enough to #Live every moment to the hilt.

#Courageous enough to know that the only losses I should fear are the loss of #Love and #Respect, for myself & for those around me.
Read 8 tweets
#demographics #militaries #economies #currencies
#USA
- Best demographics
- Largest military
- Largest economy
- Most used currency
- Liquid financial markets
- Open capital account
- Rule of law
- Best geography
- Can be self sufficient if required
- Not trade dependent
#USA
Top trade partners as of 30 June 2018:
- China: 15.2% (strategic competitor)
- Canada: 15.1%
- Mexico: 14.6%
- Japan: 5.1%
- Germany: 4.4%

The next 10 years could result in the below:
- Mexico (25%)
- Canada (20%
- Japan (7%)
- South Korea (5%)
- Great Britain (4%)
#USA
Bring the manufacturing (jobs) home while negatively impacting China's economy.
forbes.com/sites/kenrapoz…
cebglobal.com/talentdaily/au…
irishtimes.com/business/econo…
Read 338 tweets
1) @Gold_AntiTrust is frustrated James Grant doesn't know central banks manipulate #gold.

Ea day in London, 220M oz of unbacked gold debt instruments are traded primarily between bullion banks.

Est'd 500M oz open int. claims in spot contracts.

#silver gata.org/node/18244
2) In 1985, Larry Summers' paper identified neg. correlation w/ real interest rates "dominant feature of gold price fluctuations".

In 1987, Bank of England created the LBMA (90% of global gold trade ea day) trading unbacked paper #gold.

safehaven.com/article/42493/… @Gold_AntiTrust
3) Suppress #gold and interest rates can be suppressed (shut down gold alarm system). Lower int. rates cause speculation / mkt bubbles.

Bullion banks trading paper gold in London benefit fr. low rates w/ $100s billions profits & asset transfer since 1987. safehaven.com/article/34980/…
Read 4 tweets

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