Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #BullWhip
Most recents (2)
#BullWhip effect as per @michaeljburry:
All know that rising #inflation is negative for #Equity markets as #CentralBanks (CB) tend to raise rates to control #demand - which in turn can lead to #Recession. During this phase #demand outpaces #supply.
@PensionCraft
All know that rising #inflation is negative for #Equity markets as #CentralBanks (CB) tend to raise rates to control #demand - which in turn can lead to #Recession. During this phase #demand outpaces #supply.
@PensionCraft
Demand contracts for some time and supply also contracts with a lag. Post that demand starts to rise (post COVID), prompting manufacturers to increase supply disproportionately - creating a supply glut. This puts downward pressure on prices,inflation comes down. CBs turn dovish
This creates disinflationary phenomena. Though looks good on paper for equity markets, prices of all products come down substantially.
This is called #BullWhip effect.
Supply outpaces demand. Prices collapse, inventories pile up, margins shrink.
This slows earnings growth
This is called #BullWhip effect.
Supply outpaces demand. Prices collapse, inventories pile up, margins shrink.
This slows earnings growth
The opening seminar for the Indonesian G20 presidency was a good opportunity to take stock of #bottlenecks and #inflation risks
A thread follows
bis.org/speeches/sp211…
A thread follows
bis.org/speeches/sp211…
Supply bottlenecks have grabbed all the headlines recently, but longer-term structural changes brought about by the pandemic (labour markets, especially) are important to understand where we are headed
bis.org/publ/bisbull47…
bis.org/publ/bisbull47…
But first, a recap of where we stand on #bottlenecks
The sharp swings in some commodity prices (lumber, iron ore, coal) are suggestive of #bullwhip effects
For their part, shipping costs look to have peaked
The sharp swings in some commodity prices (lumber, iron ore, coal) are suggestive of #bullwhip effects
For their part, shipping costs look to have peaked
