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A RECAP of 2020 House races (now that #NY22 is finally resolved)

Dems have 222 House seats. Rs have 213 seats. They are 5 seats away from the majority

Rs flipped 14 Democratic seats & captured the Amash seat. Dems flipped 3 seats. The GOP net gain: 12 seats
The # of House GOP women grew 130%, from 13 to 30, in one cycle

13 Dem members lost in November. But House Rs didn't lose a single incumbent.

Dems flipped #GA07 (Biden+6) & #NC02 + #NC06, thanks to redistricting. The GOP flipped 11 Trump-won & 4 Biden-won districts
GOP flips by presidential margin:

#MN07 (Trump+30)
#NM02 (Trump+12)
#NY11 (Trump+11)
#UT04 (Trump+9)
#SC01 (Trump+6)
#OK05 (Trump+6)
#FL26 (Trump+5)
#IA01 (Trump+4)
#IA02 (Trump+4)
#MI03 (Trump+4)
#NY22 (Trump+??)
#CA48 (Biden+2)
#FL27 (Biden+3)
#CA21 (Biden+10)
#CA39 (Biden+10)
Read 3 tweets
Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.

For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
Biden/R districts (9):

#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne

Trump/D districts (7/8?):

#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.
Read 3 tweets
We've got a big one for ya—real big: 2020 presidential results for all 53 of California's congressional districts! dkel.ec/383yVVJ
Three of the most interesting results came in seats Dems won in '18 but the GOP flipped in '20: #CA21, #CA25, and #CA39. Republicans won all three by about 1 pt, but Biden carried each district by around 10 pts, suggesting a lot of ticket-splitting
That wasn't the case in the GOP's fourth flip, #CA48, which Biden carried by 2 but Republican Michelle Steel won by 2. Still an overperformance, but not as dramatic. Both parties will want to study these races to understand the crossover vote
Read 6 tweets
Trump lost Orange County by 8.6 points in 2016 and by 9 points this year. On the surface, that’s not a sizable shift, but underneath a LOT changed.

This is how #OrangeCounty voted in 2020 compared to 2016. There is an undeniable realignment in many parts of the county.
The biggest shifts *away* from Trump: Whiter, wealthier communities of South County. See Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, and neighboring cities.

And major shift *towards* Trump: Latino and Asian communities in the west/central parts. See Santa Ana, Westminster, and Garden Grove.
For Democrats, the gradual leftward movement in the traditional GOP strongholds is encouraging. Seeing Mission Viejo turn blue is especially interesting. But Dems cannot ignore the seismic changes in Asian & Latino communities. Westminster went from D+15 to R+9, a 24-pt shift!
Read 6 tweets
Now that Kern and Ventura Counties have posted their full results, some quick takeaways from California's House races.
#CA25
POTUS '16
Clinton 50.32%
Trump 43.65%

POTUS '20
Biden 53.95%
Trump 43.85%

CNG '18
Hill 54.37%
Knight 45.63%

CNG '20
Garcia 50.05%
Smith 49.95%
Interestingly, the conservative Ventura County portion of #CA25, which houses the Reagan Library, voted 49.4% /44.44% for Trump over Clinton in 2016, but narrowly went 48.93%/48.86% to Biden by 51 votes this year, while Mike Garcia carried it 54.23%/45.77%.
Read 13 tweets
It's been a terrible day for Dems in uncalled House races:

#CA21: Valadao (R) still ahead by 4,026 votes
#CA25: Garcia (R) retakes lead by 159 votes
#CA39: Kim (R) lead up to 4,160 votes
#IA02: Miller-Meeks (R) now ahead by 40 votes
#UT04: Owens (R) lead up to 1,780 votes
Look guys, I've seen enough. Young Kim (R) is well on her way to defeating freshman Rep. Gil Cisneros (D) in #CA39. In an upset, Dems lose an Orange County district Clinton carried 51%-43% in 2016.
Kim (R) just turned in an unreal performance in the Los Angeles Co. portion of #CA39 (Rowland Heights, Diamond Bar, Walnut), zooming ahead of both Trump's '16 share and her own '18 share. I'm pretty curious what happened there.
Read 3 tweets
hello! While we're waiting for more presidential results, I thought I'd give you an update on the House. @DecisionDeskHQ projects that Republicans have won back 5 seats on net so far. Rs flipped 7 seats and Dems won back 2 thanks to redistricting in NC businessinsider.com/2020-house-ele…
Seats projected to flip D to R, per @DecisionDeskHQ

#IA01 ( Finkenauer)
#FL26 (Mucarsel-Powell)
#FL27 (Shalala)
#MN07 (Peterson)
#NM02 (Torres Small)
#OK05 ( Horn)
#SC01 (Cunningham)

Others to keep an eye on as more votes are counted: #CA21, #CA39, #NY11, #NY22, #UT04
Democrats have also fallen short on many of their offensive targets to flip R-held seats: their most promising pickup opportunity is #GA07, where @DecisionDesk HQ has not projected a winner and we should (hopefully!) get more clarity today as more votes are counted/reported
Read 4 tweets
Another vulnerable freshman House Democrat down — Insider and @DecisionDeskHQ project that Democratic Rep. Joe Cunningham in #SC01 has been defeated by Republican challenger Nancy Mace businessinsider.com/south-carolina… Image
First-term Democrats who flipped R-controlled seats in 2018 but have conceded their 2020 races/been projected to lose by @DecisionDeskHQ:

-Debbie Mucrasel-Powell #FL26
-Donna Shalala #FL27
-Max Rose #NY11
-Xochitl Torres Small #NM02
-Kendra Horn #OK05
-Joe Cunningham #SC01
Abby Finkenauer in #IA01, Anthony Brindisi in #NY22, TJ Cox in #CA21, and Gil Cisneros in #CA39 are all positioned to also conceivably join the list in the coming days, based on @DecisionDeskHQ results
Read 4 tweets
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print&Share)& Donations Links
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
Mega-THREAD Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 51 tweets
Check it out!
ALL Democratic Candidates 50 STATES
#Congress2020 Govs AGs SoS
Postcards (Print & Share!) & Links to Follow & Support!
#PostcardsforAmerica
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets&Posts for each Candidate
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica
Read 51 tweets
Check it out!
THREAD of all the Democratic Candidates!
50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs, SoS
With Postcards & Links to Follow & Support!
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
Ready-made Tweets & Posts for each Candidate here
postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…
FB Albums: facebook.com/pg/postcards4U…
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica
Read 51 tweets
All hands on deck!
On #PostcardsforAmerica website
All Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Links (& Postcards) to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…

Update Sep 12
mega-THREAD Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 50 tweets
Want to check out all Democratic Candidates?
Pages on the #PostcardsforAmerica website with all Democratic Candidates for ALL 50 STATES #Congress2020, Govs, AGs & SoS
Postcards & Links to Follow & Support:
postcardsforamerica.com/all-democratic…
& ➡️ postcardsforamerica.com/all-dem-candid…

& follow @NDLB2020 Image
ALABAMA Democratic Candidates
#AL1 #AL2 #AL3 #AL4 #AL7 & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links for each candidate.Follow & Support!
FB
facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
GoogleDoc pc2a.info/DemCandidatesAL
THREAD
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
ALASKA Democratic Congressional Candidates
Alaska-At-Large & SENATE
#Congress2020 #Senate2020
#HoldTheHouse #FlipTheSenate
Postcards, Websites & Donation Links
Follow & Support!
Thread:
Shareable Facebook Post: facebook.com/postcards4USA/…
#PostcardsforAmerica Image
Read 50 tweets
New at @CookPolitical: House rating changes in 20 districts, all towards Democrats. I can’t recall the last time we moved so many races at once, let alone in the same direction.
More @CookPolitical: for the first time this cycle, Democrats have at least as good a chance of picking up House seats as Republicans on a net basis. cookpolitical.com/analysis/house…
(Here’s a graphic corrected for #WA03)
Read 8 tweets
House members will vote by proxy for the 1st time in chamber's 231-yr history beginning Wed. House clerk posted letters from mbrs who will not be physically present on House floor for votes due to COVID-19 pandemic & have given their proxies to other mbrs.
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…
1st term #CA39 Democratic @RepGilCisneros has designated his voting proxy to 1st term #PA06 Democratic @RepHoulahan. Image
3rd term #VA08 Democratic @RepDonBeyer, who represents one of the closest House districts to Capitol Hill, will vote by proxy for 7th term Democratic #TN09 @RepCohen, chair of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties. Image
Read 59 tweets
5 days ago, I tweeted that I was angry.

I channeled my anger into action & created plans to flip the House from 🔵🔜🔴.

President Trump even retweeted me 4 times.

The fact of the matter is that no one is coming to save us & we need to to it ourselves.
#StopTalkingStartDoing
In 2018, the democrats flipped California’s 25th Congressional District from red to blue.

Disgraced democrat Katie Hill resigned, leaving the seat vacant.

There’s a special election to fill the seat on May 12th.

You can sign up to make phone calls here:
docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…
California’s 39th Congressional District is flippable from 🔵🔜🔴.

Our Republican candidate is @YoungKimCA.

docs.google.com/document/d/1BZ…
#CA39
Read 25 tweets
AMAZING news for #CA39 @YoungKimCA winning over Democrat incumbent (with 30 California days to count) keep your eyes on this race #TakeBacktheHouse
In #CA7 @BuzzPatterson has an absolute shot to flip this seat, rally around him, he's awesome! #TakeBacktheHouse
#CA25 learned it's lesson thanks to Katie Hill, 45.6% voted Democrat 52.9% voted Republican, these numbers will probably fluctuate as this district loves to ballot harvest but @MikeGarcia2020 could take it if the party rallies together #FliptheHouseRed
Read 4 tweets
Today, I’m proud to endorse @JoeBiden for President of the United States. From New Castle County Council to the US Senate to the right-hand man of President Obama, Vice President Biden has proven time & time again he has the experience & temperament to unite our country. (1/5)
He has been a tireless champion for working class Americans, an unwavering advocate for affordable healthcare, and a loyal fighter for our veterans, servicemembers, and their families. (2/5)
Whether it’s taking on the powerful gun lobby or protecting DREAMers across the United States, we can count on Vice President Biden to be a voice that represents our values. (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
Call & tell these AL & AZ Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry;
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell 202-225-2665
Arizona
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran 202-225-3361
Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump by being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:

#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
Read 29 tweets
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them: Do your job!

#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA17 @RepRoKhanna 202-225-2631
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
CALIFORNIA;
Of your 46 Dem House Reps, 22 are afraid of #ImpeachmentInquiry. The only thing to fear is fear itself. Call & tell them:Do your job!

#CA19 @RepZoeLofgren 202-225-3072
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA24 @RepCarbajal 202-225-3601
Read 46 tweets
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJerryNadler NY, @JacksonLeeTX18, @RepCohen TN, @RepHankJohnson GA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepTedDeutch FL, @RepKarenBass CA, @RepZoeLofgren CA, @RepRichmond LA; Experts say @SpeakerPelosi’s flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
Dear Dem @HouseJudiciary members;
@RepJeffries NY, @RepCicilline RI, @RepSwalwell CA, @TedLieu CA, @RepRaskin MD;
Experts say @SpeakerPelosi is flat wrong. Think for yourself.

“Democrats Against Impeachment Invite Autocracy and a Loss in 2020”
truthout.org/articles/democ…
Read 15 tweets

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