Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CAATSA

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भारत-रूस सौदे पर अमेरिका के कड़वे बोल ...

#अमेरिकी_विदेश_मंत्रालय के प्रवक्ता नेड प्राइस ने अपने दैनिक संवाददाता सम्मेलन में कहा, S-400 प्रणाली को लेकर हमारी चिंताएं बरकरार है। मुझे लगता है कि यह क्षेत्र में और उससे बाहर अस्थिरता पैदा करने में रूस की भूमिका को उजागर करता है।
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#अमेरिकी विदेश विभाग के प्रवक्ता से S-400 खरीद को लेकर भारत-अमेरिका द्विपक्षीय संबंधों पर पूछा गया तो इसके जवाब में उन्होंने कहा कि जब #CAATSA प्रतिबंधों की बात आती है, तो हमने इस संबंध में कोई फैसला नहीं किया है। इस विशेष लेनदेन पर हम #भारत_सरकार के साथ चर्चा कर रहे हैं।
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रूस से S-400 खरीद को लेकर अमेरिका खफा है। इसके कई कारण है। अमेरिका सालों से चाहता है कि भारत रूसी रक्षा प्रणालियों पर अपनी निर्भरता खत्म कर दे। पिछले कुछ सालों में भारत ने अमेरिका से रक्षा आयात बढ़ाया है। हालांकि इस सबके बावजूद रूस भारत का सबसे बड़ा हथियार सप्लाइर बना हुआ है।
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Read 4 tweets
Thread (1 of 9) Lots of angst over the #UAE threats to cancel #F35 purchase. Most miss the point b/c most don't know how US #weapons sales work (or not). @GulfStatesInst @GulfIntlForum @CENTCOM @CH_MENAP @RUSI_org @modgovae @IISS_org @thegulfblog @Dr_Ulrichsen @Cinzia_Bianco
(2 of 9) First, #USA sells weapons with conditions: so many conditions that they are more accurately described as "rentals" than sales. A purchaser has to agree to how these weapons are used, stored, disposed of when done. In most instances, this is to ensure wpns don't go...
(3 of 9) from buyer to bad guys (e.g., to a 3rd party); in some instances (e.g., night vision, crypto) it's to safeguard tech that the #USA relies on.
F-35 falls into the latter category: because it is "stealth" there are extreme restrictions on how it can be used..
Read 9 tweets
🧵 Dr. Can Kasapoğlu #F16 alımı

1) Türkiye'nin F-16 modernizasyonu isteği birkaç açıdan önemli. Öncelikle, Türkiye'nin jeopolitik rakipleri 5. nesil kabiliyete geçiş yaparken Türk Hava Kuvvetleri'nin 4. nesil bir kabiliyet ile on yıl geçirmesi zorlayıcı olacaktır.
2) Teknik olarak F-16V modernizasyonu, özellikle gelişmiş sensör konfigürasyonu ile, Türkiye için iyi bir ara çözüm. Ayrıca, #TSK F-16'nın önde gelen kullanıcılarından biri. Savunma ekonomisi, altyapı ve pilot havuzu açısından da ciddi avantajlar var.
3) #Su35 gibi çözümler eğitim, simülatör, altyapı, pilot havuzu hatta doktrin çerçevesinde radikal değişiklik gerektirir. Ayrıca, yaptırım tetiklemesi neredeyse kesin. MMU ise, iyi ihtimalle, 2030 bandında anlamlı sayılar ile envanteri doldurmaya başlayabilir.
Read 10 tweets
1/ Türkiye'ye yönelebilecek #CAATSA yaptırımlarıyla ilgili olarak 10 Temmuz 2019'da hazırladığım bilgiseli, yaptırım direktifinin dün ABD Başkanı tarafından imzalanması üzerine yeniden aşağıda dikkatinize sunuyorum. Ek düşüncelerimi ayrıca ekleyeceğim.
2/ Temmuz 2019 bilgiselinin 4, 5, 6. maddelerinde belirtilen yaptırım türleri seçilerek uygulanmıştır. Bunların tek seferde açıklanmış olmaları "tek yaptırım olduğu ve 5 tamamlanıncaya kadar devamının geleceği" şeklinde yorumlanamaz. Başkan seçmesi gereken yaptırımları seçmiştir.
3/ Elbette bu Başkanın "yaptırımların yeterli olmadığını veya dikkate alınmadığını" düşünmesi halinde yeni yaptırımlar yürürlüğe koymasına engel değil. Güncel durumda örneğin Rusya'dan 2. grup S-400 bataryası ya da farklı silah sistemleri alımı bunu gündeme getirebilir.
Read 16 tweets
ABD #CAATSA yaptırımlarına dair hukuki analiz:

CAATSA'nın Trump yönetimince uygulanmış olması ABD Savunma Bütçe Yetkilendirme Yasası ile ABD Başkanı'na 30 gün içerisinde #CAATSA uygulama yükümlülüğünü hukuken ortadan kaldırmıyor.
ABD #CAATSA yaptırımlarına dair hukuki analiz:

Trump'ın veto edeceğini ifade ettiği Bütçe Yetkilendirme Yasası herhalde, aldığı oy oranı bakımından, yürürlüğe girecektir ve fakat bu durum bazı değişiklikler yapılmamasına engel değildir, bu sürecin takibi önem arz ediyor.
ABD #CAATSA yaptırımlarına dair hukuki analiz:

Bütçe Yetkilendirme Yasası aynen çıkar ve CAATSA uygulama yükümlülüğü gerektirirse, Biden yönetimi tarafından ilave yaptırımlar yasal gerekliliğin sonucu olabilir.
Read 10 tweets
As #NDAA on the House and Senate floors this week (!), the opportunity for a THREAD on #NordStream2 and #Turkstream has arisen

1️⃣ Modification of Guidance for Section 232 of CAATSA to allow sanctioning of NS2 and second line of Turkstream (#Balkanstream) aims 1/
>>to give entities involved in the two projects leeway to wind down their participation before theCongress sanctions (NDAA) would hit on
>>as paradoxically as it may seem, to reduce some of the impact and scope of Congress sanctions 👉potentially, to avoid retroactive 2/
application of sanctions. Regarding the scope, should wait until we see what sanctions, exactly, would be included in NDAA, and what other entities-from those providing underwriting or insurance to pipe-laying vessels, to those facilitating shop retrofitting-would be targeted 3/
Read 14 tweets
Hey, @StateDept. Unfortunately, urging #Turkey to refrain from or halt provocative actions isn’t doing the trick. What could work is holding Ankara accountable. #CAATSA sanctions are a good start, as is making it clear that the only country "disputing" these waters is Turkey.
During the Imia Crisis in 1996, the US took the position that it wouldn't take a position despite generally agreeing with #Greece that this should go to the #ICJ and that it had the better argument. US Ambassador to Greece Thomas Niles, made it clear this was a “big mistake”.
In American Diplomats (on the @StateDept recommended reading list) he writes: “When we refused to take a position, it sent a signal back to the Turks that we were not prepared to countenance or do anything about aggressive Turkish behavior toward the Greeks [in the #Aegean]...
Read 5 tweets
JUST IN—

“Policy Options to Impose Costs on #Beijing’s Coercive Envelopment of #HongKong: Version 1.0”

bit.ly/HongKONG

#NatSecLaw negates #SAR’s judiciary & freedoms

Our #ChinaSignPost™ 洞察中国 report (#102) offers analysis & recommendations

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…
#HongKong’s long-deteriorating situation has come to a head.

Today, just b/f #July1, Beijing imposed a popularly-opposed #NationalSecurityLaw negating the Special Autonomous Region’s judiciary & freedoms.

andrewerickson.com/2020/06/china-…

Dissidents are vulnerable; everyone is at risk.
#Beijing has abruptly abandoned binding commitments & reassurances, which underwrote #HongKong’s handover from Britain in 1997, & its subsequent special treatment by the United States & other nations.

Now, sadly, Hong Kong’s identity & status lies damaged & altered irrevocably.
Read 11 tweets
Trump’s sanctions against #Turkey result largely from Erdogan’s purchase of #S400 from #Russia. Interestingly #India too signed a deal worth $5.4 billion with Russia for S-400 in 2015. If US decide to sanction India, Reliance Defense may be destroyed. greatgameindia.com/the-s400-deal-…
Purchases from #Russia attract US #sanctions under the #CAATSA Act.

The US can issue waivers but only on a transaction-to-transaction basis.

The US still has NOT given #India a waiver on this #S400 deal despite requests. greatgameindia.com/the-s400-deal-…
Guess who is the main offset partner for the #S400 deal between #India & #Russia?

Yup - it’s Anil Ambani’s Reliance Defense.

Ambani signed a contract with Russia’s Almaz-Antey which makes S-400 potentially worth $6bn. greatgameindia.com/the-s400-deal-…
Read 10 tweets
1. Clash in Shera, reconnaissance flights in Shehba anfenglishmobile.com/rojava-norther…
2. Turkey had the perfect opportunity to address its ethnic cleansing and support for terrorists in Afrin. These actions constitute violations of US criminal law against genocide and terrorism. Turkey has made its bed. Now it has to sleep in it.
3. If @POTUS does not impose the #CAATSA sanctions, Congress must take action and impose them and remove from the Trump Istanbul building owner the power to allow crimes against humanity to go unpunished.
Read 3 tweets
1. In 2014, when I witnessed the brave men and women of the #YPG #YPJ refuse to yield to ISIS though entirely surrounded at Kobane, no supplies, scrounging for ammo & weapons but refusing to quit, I begged the Obama administration to give them support & they did. With a US
2. commitment of air and artillery support plus needed supplies we helped defeat ISIS. The #SDF bore the burden of the battle. They buried their dead and cared for their wounded. And they brought democracy to North and East Syria. Turkey hates them because they represent the
3. 50 year failed Turkish policy of Kurdish Apartheid but more than that they represent the end of the age of patriarchy that has burdened the people of the Mideast and is the foundation of all its failed systems. Women are equal not just in theory but in reality in the NES.
Read 9 tweets
1. @StateDept needs to release intelligence we have connecting Turkish government to #ISIS & Al-#Qaeda & issue Red level departure warning for all US civilians in Turkey. We must face the reality that #Turkey is threatening an imminent attack on our forces to commit more acts of
2 anti-#Christian, #Kurd & #Ezidi genocide and move to capture the #Syrian oil and gas fields we and the #SDF liberated from Turkey's ally ISIS. Now #Iran is coordinating for an attack from Deir EzZor. Enough is enough. Expose Turkey as ISIS.
3. Where are the #CAATSA sanctions? Did Erdogan make a payment to @Trump family related to the Trump Istanbul project @IvankaTrump? @JimInhofe @SenJackReed @RepAdamSmith @SenateGOP @HouseGOP @WHNSC @DefenseIntel
Read 3 tweets
1. Just because #MoscowMitch was able to stop #CAATSA sanctions on his partner-in-crime Oleg Deripaska, it does not mean the money McConnell wants to launder for the Russian mob is not proceeds of a specified unlawful activity. Russian mob is into just about every crime.
2. What do you want to bet that some of #MoscowMitch's racketeering pals' money is going through a NY State supervised financial institution? @NewYorkStateAG should subpoena #MoscowMitch to an investigative grand jury. There's no speech and debate immunity
3. for racketeering related lobbying activity. Right Mitch? FYI on the left is Rikers. Then you go to Sing Sing on the right.

Looks like your army experience may come in handy, for #MoscowMitch. 😎 @SenateGOP @senatemajldr
Read 3 tweets
1- #Türk ve #Rus devlet başkanları arasındaki son görüşmeden basına yansıyan detaylar, #S400 teslimatlarına ilişkin bir değişiklik olmayacağı yönündedir. Ayrıca, Rus basını, farklı silah sistemlerinin de gündemde olduğunu belirtmektedir.
2- Şu aşamada kesin bir değerlendirmede bulunmak spekülatif olsa da, tahminlerimiz #Pantsir alçak-orta irtifa hava savunma sistemlerine ilişkin bir alımın #S400'ler için gerekli SAM konfigürasyonunu oluşturmak adına bir sonraki adım olabileceği yönündedir.
3- Nitekim, bilinen modern hava savunma planlama esasları ve #Rusya Federasyonu'nun #S400 konuşlandırma paternleri de Pantsir seçeneğini güçlü kılmaktadır. Açıkçası, bilgi eksikliği ve War Studies (harp çalışmaları) disiplininin henüz istenen seviyede gelişmemiş olmasından ötürü,
Read 25 tweets

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