Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CAgov
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California 2022 Governor and US Senate election results by congressional district (1 of 2): 
California 2022 Governor and US Senate election results by congressional district (2 of 2):
I was trying to support #education and #employment in #Escondido earlier this week @escolibrary @ehscougars @cityofescondido @EscondidoChambe @EUSD @EUHSD @VisitEscondido @escondidoreport @EscondidoDems by posting notice of this new service of #libraries
…n_castatehelpnow_ca.svc.brainfuse.com/authenticate.a… looks like an incredible service, don't you think? So I shared it with many communities that I belong to on #Facebook. That URL is embedded on this page:
gov.ca.gov/2022/09/12/gov…
It has stayed up in every other community (probably around 10) that I posted it except one:
It has stayed up in every other community (probably around 10) that I posted it except one:
Again, there was never much of an argument for moving #CAGov to anything more bearish than Likely Democratic in a Biden +29, universal VBM state unless you overreacted to a mathematically impossible SurveyUSA poll and some outliers with insanely Republican Likely Voter screens.
We know universal VBM boosts turnout by quite a bit, making the turnout screens awful. We also knew Newsom hadn't kicked campaigning into high gear. These are the types of signs people could have used instead of "aVerAgE eVerYthiNG" to figure out what dynamics actually were!
Once again: In a Biden +29 state, Republicans cannot rely on differential turnout to carry them to a win. They need to win large swaths of Biden voters. Newsom can lose next week, but if he does, it will be because Republicans flipped an insane, unforeseen amount of Biden voters.
New SurveyUSA poll of #CAgov: 51% want to keep Newsom, 43% want to recall him. A big reversal from SurveyUSA's last poll that brings them more in line with the consensus. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Guessing this will really shift our average by overwriting the old SurveyUSA poll... We'll see.
Really transparent discussion from @surveyusa about why their last poll was an outlier & what might have caused the big swing. Good for them for being willing to publish the outlier AND to strive to improve. surveyusa.com/client/PollRep…
Something I found interesting is that in the 2003 #CAGOV recall election, although the recall passed, it underperformed polls taken 1-2 months out.
Aug '03 polling average: Yes +24
Sept '03 polling average: Yes +17
Oct' 03 polling average: Yes +14
Actual result: Yes +11
Aug '03 polling average: Yes +24
Sept '03 polling average: Yes +17
Oct' 03 polling average: Yes +14
Actual result: Yes +11
Davis (D) also outperformed his approval rating in the 2003 recall. The exit poll had his approval rating at just 26 percent, but 'no on recall' got 45 percent of the vote.
A lot of voters who disapproved of Davis nonetheless voted against the recall.
cnn.com/ELECTION/2003/…
A lot of voters who disapproved of Davis nonetheless voted against the recall.
cnn.com/ELECTION/2003/…
There are many potential explanations for why the incumbent governor gained at the end, outperformed the polls, and outperformed his own approval rating in the 2003 #CAGOV recall.
But it's possible that this was an example of Democratic-leaning voters "coming home" at the end.
But it's possible that this was an example of Democratic-leaning voters "coming home" at the end.
Be very, very careful when interpreting returned ballots data in the #CAGOV race.
- Democrats are more likely to vote by mail + turn in ballots earlier
- Lower I turnout is expected for this type of election
- Many counties may be underreporting ballots
- Democrats are more likely to vote by mail + turn in ballots earlier
- Lower I turnout is expected for this type of election
- Many counties may be underreporting ballots
Also important to remember that the recall election is not just about turnout - it's also about persuasion.
Republicans can't win just with high turnout - the numbers aren't there. They have to flip Biden voters. They're definitely flipping some, just a question of is it enough.
Republicans can't win just with high turnout - the numbers aren't there. They have to flip Biden voters. They're definitely flipping some, just a question of is it enough.
(I will have more analysis of the #CAGOV returned ballots data when I have time!)
Another close #CAgov poll—although it's worth noting that Emerson has always shown a closer race than other pollsters.
And another poll, from the new pollster Core Decision Analytics, finds 49% of likely voters against the recall and 42% for it. coredecision.com/roadtotherecal…
Actually, with leaners, this CODA poll is 51% against the recall, 44% in favor among likely voters.
Who's trying to replace @GavinNewsom? A few GOP politicians, a reality TV personality, a YouTuber, a retired detective, a cannabis advocate, and even a new-age shaman
Not running: a prominent Democrat or a superstar a la @Schwarzenegger
calmatters.org/explainers/new…
Not running: a prominent Democrat or a superstar a la @Schwarzenegger
calmatters.org/explainers/new…
41 candidates is less than one-third of the 135 who ran to replace Gray Davis in the 2003 recall.
Newsom effectively helped shrink the field by signing a law requiring all candidates submit 5 years of tax returns calmatters.org/politics/2021/…
Newsom effectively helped shrink the field by signing a law requiring all candidates submit 5 years of tax returns calmatters.org/politics/2021/…
Tax returns for the 41 candidates will be posted tomorrow on the Secretary of State website for the world to see. Newsom's spokesman says he submitted his too, the same ones reporters have been allowed to review. calmatters.org/politics/2021/…
Well guys, tonight on #ElectionTwitter, we're gonna be looking at Orange County. It's California's third most populous county and will be critical for the 2018 midterms. 
Why is Orange County so interesting? Well, to start, it was one the relatively few Romney -> Clinton counties. She won it by almost 9%, becoming the first Democrat to carry it since FDR in 1936. 
