Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CO08

Most recents (22)

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Stephen Beban
@StephenBeban
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
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RRH Elections
@RRHElections
GOP House math coming into focus:

206 seats are locked down.

R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.

That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
The easiest path to 4:

#CA41 Calvert (R) holds a Trump seat as more votes come in.

#WA03 Kent (R) comes back as late votes typically break R in WA.

#AZ01 Schweikert (R) comes back as late votes are generally pro-R in Arizona.

#CA27 Garcia (R) holds his 15-point lead.
Republicans are also bullish on #CT05, which is very close. R's lead #OR05 by 4 and #CA22 by 8, but with more mail-ballot uncertainty (the NYT needle sees R's as modest favorites in both).

Regardless, it's a wait-and-see game with Western mail votes.
Read 3 tweets
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Trenton Sperry
@trentonsperry
For what it’s worth, the signs were all there.

- Supreme Court reduces rights for half the population (the half that votes more and lives longer).

- Dem over-performance in special elections.

- Generic ballot average showing Dem growth and GOP decay.
But forecasters and national media got duped by a constant stream of GOP-aligned and funded pollsters claiming bonkers numbers that nonpartisan pollsters just never found.
Dems kept their own polling close to their chest, and that choice seems interesting now.

But we should also talk about the general lack of quality polling this year.

#CO08, one of the most expensive House races in the country, has ZERO nonpartisan public polls.
Read 4 tweets
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ProgressNow Colorado
@ProgressNowCO
Colorado Progressives Celebrate Another Night of Historic Victories progressnowcolorado.org/2022/11/08/col… #copolitics #coleg #cogov #cosen
"If Colorado Republicans couldn’t win this year, they have only themselves to blame and they may truly be on the verge of permanent minority status in our state." progressnowcolorado.org/2022/11/08/col… #copolitics #coleg #cogov #cosen
"Colorado Republicans under Trump have made themselves toxic to Colorado voters, and voters saw right through Joe O’Dea’s desperate attempts to distance himself from his own party’s brand." @SaraLoflin progressnowcolorado.org/2022/11/08/col… #copolitics #coleg #cogov #cosen
Read 6 tweets
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Trenton Sperry
@trentonsperry
OK, Colorado. Let’s see what you have to say.
With the first vote drop from Weld County, Republican Barb Kirkmeyer is taking the Weld portion of the new #CO08 by 56.8 to 39.4 over Dem Yadira Caraveo. Libertarian Richard Ward is capturing 3.8%.

Kirkmeyer needs to run up her vote share in Weld to win.

#copolitics
Kirkmeyer is ahead by less than 10,000 votes in the Weld portion of #CO08. But it’s unclear how much of the total Weld vote these numbers represent. #copolitics
Read 29 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.

Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace. ImageImageImage
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NY17 $2,593,204
#IL06 $1,913,350
#NV03 $1,509,471
#CA47 $1,484,309
#NV01 $1,447,925
#PA07 $1,419,827
#CA49 $1,343,586
#NY04 $1,324,750
#CA13 $1,162,594
#TX34 $1,050,079
#VA07 $1,031,830
#IL17 $996,760
#IN01 $899,304
#NY18 $786,512
#MN02 $653,079
Tonight's CLF buys (2/3)

#CA22 $646,452
#WA08 $644,145
#OR05 $636,737
#CT05 $604,832
#NY19 $599,291
#NC13 $594,582
#PA17 $567,250
#ME02 $527,500
#RI02 $506,313
#NY22 $497,750
#MI07 $453,800
#OR06 $447,500
#OH13 $402,750
#TX28 $356,186
#OH01 $340,851
#AZ06 $320,051
#AZ01 $310,380
Read 5 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...

$45.9 million in 57 House races...

adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
Tonight's HMP buys (1/4)

#NY03 $2,091,249
#NY18 $1,987,496
#NJ11 $1,961,501
#NJ05 $1,961,476
#PA07 $1,687,355
#IL17 $1,674,366
#TX28 $1,579,645
#VA07 $1,480,888
#MI07 $1,480,436
#PA17 $1,366,568
#MN02 $1,349,450
#NY19 $1,317,868
#NH01 $1,262,355
#CA13 $1,170,657
#NH02 $1,083,220
Tonight's HMP buys (2/4)

#NY04 $1,073,658
#AZ01 $1,054,068
#WA08 $1,050,275
#TX34 $1,034,351
#OR06 $1,008,020
#OH13 $961,300
#IN01 $947,522
#NV01 $902,915
#PA08 $882,593
#IL13 $866,533
#NM02 $840,709
#NY22 $804,598
#OH01 $759,588
#CO08 $746,912
#ME02 $726,274
#NC13 $710,544
Read 6 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07 $1,374,911
#ME02 $1,352,673
#MN02 $1,258,023
#OH13 $1,154,607
#NY22 $997,406
#VA07 $982,903
#CA22 $950,397
#PA08 $877,281
#TX28 $854,057
#PA17 $836,060
#NH01 $787,150
#WA08 $741,749
#IL17 $627,333
#NY19 $563,935
#NM02 $527,100
#PA07 $508,737
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17 $492,456
#CO08 $484,379
#AZ06 $460,274
#RI02 $458,462
#NE02 $437,216
#CA27 $395,668
#CT05 $359,491
#TX34 $356,517
#IA03 $351,819
#MI08 $349,054
#NJ07 $334,947
#VA02 $323,999
#CA45 $290,779
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Today's CLF buys (1/3)

#CA47 $1,682,483
#PA07 $1,539,925
#NY17 $1,518,158
#NV03 $1,503,351
#NV01 $1,455,758
#IN01 $1,014,589
#VA07 $991,831
#CA13 $945,284
#NJ07 $833,186
#NY19 $770,181
#CA49 $769,283
#TX34 $738,255
#WA08 $715,288
#CA22 $711,987
#OR05 $680,714
#PA17 $665,653
Today's CLF buys (2/3)

#TX28 $636,376
#CO08 $624,456
#IL17 $611,310
#CT05 $608,112
#NC13 $582,079
#ME02 $548,414
#NY22 $498,339
#RI02 $486,313
#MN02 $472,556
#VA02 $405,567
#FL27 $393,568
#OH01 $343,088
#AZ06 $329,402
#CA45 $294,819
#NE02 $259,178
#MI07 $249,885
#NY18 $222,852
Read 5 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65. ImageImage
Tonight's HMP buys (1/3)

#NJ05 $1,959,458
#PA07 $1,720,125
#MI07 $1,507,533
#VA07 $1,284,208
#TX28 $1,259,722
#CA13 $1,206,064
#NH01 $1,196,950
#MN02 $1,176,281
#IL17 $958,645
#IN01 $953,087
#PA17 $915,645
#NV01 $887,864
#NY19 $846,081
#WA08 $813,814
#OH13 $795,000
Read 6 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
ImageImageImage
Today's NRCC buys (1/2)

#MI07$1,499,784
#ME02$1,350,223
#MN02$1,250,208
#OH13$1,009,066
#CA22$941,557
#PA08$894,614
#PA17$846,908
#TX28$825,989
#NH01$815,750
#CA27$780,526
#WA08$724,356
#NY22$721,327
#CA45$645,465
#VA07$590,931
#NY19$563,935
Today's NRCC buys (2/2)

#NY17$527,193
#NM02$518,428
#PA07$505,183
#RI02$491,255
#IL17$490,579
#NE02$459,022
#AZ06$458,425
#IA03$421,218
#TX34$408,778
#CT05$401,871
#VA02$370,614
#NJ07$333,561
#MI08$320,974
#WI03$62,744
#CO08$28,296
#PA12$9,200
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
Today's HMP buys (1/3)

#NV01 $1,409,339
#NV04 $1,085,708
#NV03 $1,063,115
#CA22 $1,058,595
#NH01 $1,037,920
#NY19 $961,780
#TX28 $929,827
#OH13 $870,198
#MN02 $739,191
#WA08 $738,334
#IN01 $686,882
#KS03 $646,562
#CO08 $590,088
#OR06 $587,541
#NY22 $491,388
#TX34 $460,863
Today's HMP buys (2/3)

#OH01 $459,646
#CA49 $436,650
#RI02 $409,455
#PA17 $379,011
#NC01 $345,232
#NE02 $312,778
#GA02 $210,676
#OH09 $205,321
#NJ07 $171,807
#IA03 $164,363
#IL13 $158,950
#CA13 $123,963
#MI08 $116,751
#VA07 $105,000
#NY03 $91,071
#AZ04 $86,070
#MI07 $58,083
Read 4 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.

CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
Tonight's CLF buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,429,474
#NV01 $1,422,146
#PA07 $1,047,124
#NJ07 $901,401
#CO08 $881,835
#CA47 $841,483
#OR05 $821,203
#IL17 $726,494
#FL27 $651,174
#MN02 $650,074
#NY19 $646,069
#VA07 $631,866
#CA13 $629,151
#MI07 $618,935
#TX28 $616,752
#CA22 $604,211
Read 5 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.

docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
Today's @CLFSuperPAC buys (1/3)

#NV03 $1,494,562
#NV01 $1,181,949
#PA07 $1,022,681
#NH01 $981,150
#CO08 $934,807
#OR05 $773,033
#IN01 $740,075
#IL17 $711,513
#MN02 $684,808
#CA13 $678,224
#VA07 $663,140
#MI07 $644,028
#TX34 $615,633
#CA49 $584,838
#OH13 $565,159
#NY19 $553,155
Read 6 tweets
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Rob Pyers
@rpyers
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.

The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC. ImageImage
Today's DCCC buys (1/3)

#MI07 $1,023,595
#WA08 $914,082
#CA13 $887,013
#TX28 $877,736
#PA07 $822,504
#VA07 $738,010
#CO08 $724,286
#NC01 $678,431
#NH01 $670,977
#OH13 $624,694
#MN02 $603,123
#NY19 $578,924
#GA02 $577,265
#AZ04 $574,484
#OR05 $568,706
Today's DCCC buys (2/3)

#IL17 $564,045
#OH01 $562,891
#OR06 $517,844
#PA17 $515,834
#VA02 $491,375
#MI03 $474,695
#NY22 $434,336
#MI08 $426,641
#KS03 $406,528
#NM02 $356,148
#PA08 $324,212
#IA03 $202,940
#NV03 $192,497
#OR04 $189,071
#NV01 $174,997
#CA49 $59,999
Read 6 tweets
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Stephen Wolf
@PoliticsWolf
What if NY's Dem House map wasn't blocked in court & FL+OH GOP gerrymanders were?

See:
NY D map davesredistricting.org/join/22e2010f-…
Nonpartisan OH map
davesredistricting.org/join/c0c55ef9-…
FL legislature GOP map blocked by DeSantis davesredistricting.org/join/a7087256-…
Fully nonpartisan FL map
davesredistricting.org/join/483818cf-… ImageImageImageImage
In reality, Biden won 226 House seats & the median #MI08 by 2% (his national margin was 4.5%)

With the NY Dem map, OH nonpartisan map, & FL lege GOP map, Biden wins 231 seats & the median #CO08 by 4.6%

Add the nonpartisan FL map & Biden wins 234 seats & the median #PA17 by 5.8%
Had NY Dems' gerrymander not been struck down 4-3, had the Ohio GOP's gerrymander been struck down & redrawn before the election instead of delayed past 2022, & had FL GOP lawmakers not caved to DeSantis, the national congressional map's median seat could've had no partisan bias
Read 4 tweets
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TrumpsTaxes
@TrumpsTaxes
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨

The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣

5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.

3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.

🧵👇 Image
Race: #TX34

Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)

Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores

2020 Margin: Biden +15.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente… ImageImage
Race: #CA22

Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)

Republican: Rep. David Valadao

2020 Margin: Biden +13.1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe… ImageImage
Read 31 tweets
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DCCC
@dccc
🧵𝑻𝑯𝑹𝑬𝑨𝑫: The Supreme Court lit 49 years of precedent on fire, creating the nightmare reality the Republican Party has worked so damn hard for.

Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
At least 28 @NRCC-endorsed GOP challengers supported overturning #RoeVWade.
At least three vulnerable House Republicans & three @NRCC-endorsed challengers support 𝑗𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑑𝑜𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑠 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑚 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠 (including @BlackmanForAZ in #AZ02 who also 𝑠𝑢𝑝𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑠 𝑗𝑎𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑔 𝑤𝑜𝑚𝑒𝑛 𝑤ℎ𝑜 𝑔𝑒𝑡 𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑟𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑠).
Read 16 tweets
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Melanie🇺🇸
@melajessi_1
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Read 38 tweets
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Nathaniel Rakich
@baseballot
The Colorado Supreme Court has approved the state's new congressional map: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
The map creates 4 🔵 seats, 3 🔴 seats, and 1 🟣 seat. It has a slight GOP bias; Dems could have drawn themselves a much better map if they hadn't voted to create an independent commission. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Hispanic advocacy groups are upset with the map, however, because it doesn't have a plurality-Hispanic seat (CO is 21% Hispanic). The closest is the new #CO08, which has a 35% Hispanic VAP. projects.fivethirtyeight.com/redistricting-…
Read 4 tweets
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Justin Wingerter
@JustinWingerter
Colorado's congressional redistricting commission has released its first 𝗽𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘆* map.

𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗿𝘆. This will change. But here's where they're starting from. #copolitics #co03 #co08 Image
Here's the estimated partisan leans of the proposed Colorado districts. #copolitics

1: (DeGette-D) D+56
2: (Neguse-D) D+27
3: (Boebert-R) R+10
4: (Buck-R) R+23
5: (Lamborn-R) R+20
6: (Crow-D) D+13
7: (Perlmutter-D) R+3 (!!)
8: (Open) D+7
Again, this map will undoubtedly change. But if it didn't — or if the final one looks similar — this is a really, really good map for Republicans.

It's quite possible there would be a 4-4 split in Colorado's U.S. House delegation with this map. In a Democratic state. #copolitics
Read 3 tweets
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Stephen Wolf
@PoliticsWolf
Colorado's independent redistricting commission will release a preliminary congressional map shortly. Here are 2 maps I just quickly drew to give you a basic idea.

Left has a Latino district #CO01: davesredistricting.org/join/6ddda8a2-…
Right keeps Denver mostly whole: davesredistricting.org/join/76acb619-…
Both of these CO maps would have 4 relatively safe Dem districts, 3 relatively safe GOP districts (though Boebert could imperil their hold on #CO03), & the new #CO08 would be a swingy Trump '16 - Biden '20 district. I don't have precise 2020 data yet
Breaking: Colorado's independent redistricting commission just released its preliminary congressional map proposal.

This map is very problematic IMO for not drawing a substantially Latino district in Denver as I did upthread & instead prioritizes keeping Denver mostly whole
Read 9 tweets

Related hashtags

#NY01 #OR05 #Pennsylvania #co08 #MI05 #CO03 #CA13 #FL10 #CA41 #NE01 #OH14 #OH13 #NY22 #NewJersey #IN03 #NC09 #VA02 #AZ06 #PA07 #NC13 #MN02 #coleg #CA40 #NM01

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