Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #COUNTEROFFENSIVE
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Judging from various reports, the #ukrainecounteroffensive seems to be a complete disaster, even though this is officially denied by the Western side.
But this analysis by Col. Richard Kemp of the #British military shows no expectations of success.
(1/)
news.yahoo.com/prepare-ukrain…
But this analysis by Col. Richard Kemp of the #British military shows no expectations of success.
(1/)
news.yahoo.com/prepare-ukrain…
Col. Kemp uses cautious language, but it is easy to read between the lines. Being a retired Western Colonel, you don't expect him to come out and say openly that #Ukraine️ is going to lose. But that is exactly what he is saying.
Let me explain why the conclusion is clear.
(2/)
Let me explain why the conclusion is clear.
(2/)
His main points:
1. Surprise is essential for success.
But of course, there is no surprise here. The whole world has been expecting this operation for months. There are no unexpected lines of attack like #Incheon in the #KoreanWar in 1950.
(3/)
1. Surprise is essential for success.
But of course, there is no surprise here. The whole world has been expecting this operation for months. There are no unexpected lines of attack like #Incheon in the #KoreanWar in 1950.
(3/)
🇷🇺⚡🇺🇦
Interesting observation from the war in #Ukraine️:
#Russia may be experiencing substantial supply issues of Kontakt-1 basic explosive reactive armour (ERA).
ERA is a vital component of Russian armour protection and was generally believed to be readily available.
Interesting observation from the war in #Ukraine️:
#Russia may be experiencing substantial supply issues of Kontakt-1 basic explosive reactive armour (ERA).
ERA is a vital component of Russian armour protection and was generally believed to be readily available.
Several telegram channels are looking for Russians who can produce the metal containers for Kontakt-1 explosive reactive armour (ERA) or spare some materials for them.
They post the machine drawings and of these containers, and recruiting machine shops who could produce them.
They post the machine drawings and of these containers, and recruiting machine shops who could produce them.
Some quotes from Russian channels:
"the tankers are unable to get any [Kontakt-1]".
Apparently from the Donetsk area: "[we] need 3000 pieces of remote sensing elements [ERA] plus monthly expense in battles is 1000-1200 pieces"
"the tankers are unable to get any [Kontakt-1]".
Apparently from the Donetsk area: "[we] need 3000 pieces of remote sensing elements [ERA] plus monthly expense in battles is 1000-1200 pieces"
NEW: #Ukrainian forces continued #counteroffensive actions on at least four sectors of the front on June 17.
Details below and in tonight's update on #Ukraine: isw.pub/UkrWar061723
Details below and in tonight's update on #Ukraine: isw.pub/UkrWar061723
2/ The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and other Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted localized ground attacks west and south of #Kreminna. isw.pub/UkrWar061723
3/ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar stated that Ukrainian forces continue counteroffensive operations near #Bakhmut, and Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces attacked on the northern and southern outskirts of Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar061723
#Ukrainian forces continued #counteroffensive actions on at least three sectors of the front on June 16 and reportedly made gains.
#Russian forces targeted #Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih with cruise missiles and kamikaze drones on June 15-16.
Latest on #Ukraine: isw.pub/UkrWar061623
#Russian forces targeted #Kyiv and Kryvyi Rih with cruise missiles and kamikaze drones on June 15-16.
Latest on #Ukraine: isw.pub/UkrWar061623
2/ The UKR General Staff stated that UKR forces conducted successful counteroffensive operations 12km SW of #Bakhmut near Stupochky, in western #Donetsk Oblast near #Vuhledar...
3/ ...in the western #Donetsk-eastern #Zaporizhia Oblast border area along the Levadne-Staromaiorske line, and in western #Zaporizhia Oblast along the Novodanlylivka-Robotyne line.
#Ukraine: Today's updates from #UkraineWar: 1. UA military says it is advancing in several directions at once in S in #counteroffensive, up to 2 km in each direction. RU counterattack successfully defeated: #tweet100
🇺🇦⚡️THREAD🇺🇦⚡️
🇺🇦⚡️THREAD🇺🇦⚡️
#Ukraine: 2. N of #Bakhmut, in a series of coordinated attacks, UA have breached several key RU positions & yesterday retook heights overlooking the city. #Prigozhin, seeing RU losses said collapse of RU N flank is "only a matter of time". #tweet100 (Map: @ChuckPfarrer)
As I`ll be out of commission camping for a few days quick update as of 4:30 AM GMT 6/16/2023🧵
Nothing much has changed as yet along the center that is as yet confirmable, though it appears that UKR & RU forces seem to be fighting over Urozhane & Staromaorske. #counteroffensive
Nothing much has changed as yet along the center that is as yet confirmable, though it appears that UKR & RU forces seem to be fighting over Urozhane & Staromaorske. #counteroffensive
What we can see is that there does appear to be some Ukrainian offensive action on the flanks. It would appear that the elements of the 23rd, 31st, and 110th TDF seem to be advancing from the northwest.
While the 72nd OMBR and some as yet identified force advanced on Pavlika from the north and west.
Russian and Ukrainian forces both conducted offensive operations in western #Donetsk Oblast on June 15.
RU forces likely conducted a limited ground attack in the #Vuhledar area to draw UKR forces away from #VelykaNovosilka, where UKR troops continue #counteroffensive operations.
RU forces likely conducted a limited ground attack in the #Vuhledar area to draw UKR forces away from #VelykaNovosilka, where UKR troops continue #counteroffensive operations.
2/ The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces in the Shakhtarske (western #Donetsk direction) conducted an unsuccessful attack towards Vodiane (directly northeast of #Vuhledar and about 36km due east of #VelykaNovosilka). isw.pub/UkrWar061523
3/ The UKR Tavrisk Group of Forces Press Center notably reported on June 15 that UKR forces have advanced up to one kilometer in the #Vulhedar area, and Tavrisk Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that Ukrainian troops continue moving forward in this area.
Russian milbloggers continue to credit alleged superior Russian electronic warfare (EW) capabilities and defensive doctrine for Russian forces’ successful defenses against Ukrainian #counteroffensive operations in southern #Ukraine. isw.pub/UkrWar061523
2/ A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are implementing a “strategic defense” that seeks to attrit advancing Ukrainian forces in extended positional battles along a first line of defense before later counterattacking against weakened UKR assault units.
3/ ISW continues to assess that Russian forces are maintaining doctrinally sound defensive operations in this sector in which a first echelon of forces repels or slows attacking forces before a second echelon of forces counterattacks against any enemy breakthrough.
#Ukraine: Latest news from #UkraineWar:
1. Around #Bakmut UA continue to make gains & N of the city operations are in play along #Rozdolivka-Krasnopolivka & #Berkhivka-Yahidne frontlines. UA forces have advanced another 1 km nr #Vuhledar. #tweet100
🇺🇦🔥THREAD🇺🇦🔥
1. Around #Bakmut UA continue to make gains & N of the city operations are in play along #Rozdolivka-Krasnopolivka & #Berkhivka-Yahidne frontlines. UA forces have advanced another 1 km nr #Vuhledar. #tweet100
🇺🇦🔥THREAD🇺🇦🔥
#Ukraine: 2. S of #Novodanylivka UA forces says they have retaken & secured an area 4 km long & 1.5 km deep. "Noose" is being tightened at #Rivnopil but is not finalised yet. #Urozhaine is now a contested "grey zone". euromaidanpress.com/2023/06/15/fro… #tweet100
#Ukraine: 3. Reports RU have lost 7,000 troops killed & 15,000 + injured since June 4th & start of UA #counteroffensive. UA also destroyed RU Borisoglebsk-2 electronic warfare unit & a counter-battery radar system Zoopark-1 (worth $ 20 million). #tweet100
#Ukraine: Latest updates from #UkraineWar: 1. RU channels report that General Akhmedov kept large gathering of troops in #Kreminna out in open waiting 2 hrs for a pep talk before battle. UA HIMARS struck, 100 reported killed incl general, 100 wounded. #tweet100
🇺🇦THREAD🎯
🇺🇦THREAD🎯
#Ukraine: 2. Heavy fighting continues in #Counteroffensive towards S, #Novodanylivka & #Novopokrovka and around #Rivnopil. #US officials say progress is slow as expected because of minefield clearance & other obstacles. 5 RU howitzers destroyed. #tweet100
#Ukraine: 3. Armed Forces of Ukraine say casualty rates around #Bakhmut are 1 x UA to 8.73 RU & at #Zaporizhzhia front 1/5.3. RU remains superior in aviation & artillery resources. Many more RU prisoners taken in the last week, a sharp increase. #tweet100
1/16 This is a fascinating, provocative, perceptive article. I would encourage everyone interested in command @LawDavF @almurray @WarintheFuture to read it. Thanks @Beags_Beagle for your and your team's work on this. I offer a few initial thoughts.
armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Milit…
armyupress.army.mil/Journals/Milit…
2/@Beags_Beagle and his co-authors are surely correct to argue that the bloated divisional and brigade HQs of the 9/11 Wars are obsolete. They are far too vulnerable. At a UK divisional exercise in 2016, the commander observed that his static, tented CP was 'not an act of war'
3/ Consequently, @Beags_Beagle et al. argue that CPs must consist of 3 or 4 armd vehicles which are mobile, dispersed, with low signatures. However, because they draw on a cloud, are data-centric, AI-enabled, it will be possible to bespoke the situational picture for each node.
1/UK Military doctrine emphasises the cognitive dimension of warfare. Avoiding attrition, the enemy's mind is the target. The contrast with current discussions of the #counteroffensive is marked. Like the FWW, it is all about re-taking terrain and settlements liberated.
2/ Are the #Ukrainians hopelessly old fashioned? No: nothing has a greater morale and intellectual effect than losing troops and ground - especially when it is vital terrain.
3/ However, critical though the current close battles are, the outcome of this #counteroffensive is probably going to be decided in the deep, where the #UAF have been striking hard and skilfully.
Hey everybody, since the start of the offensive I have been compiling data on the different axis of advance. Cross referencing Project Owl's, militaryland's, JominiW's latest, LiveUAmap, Geoconfirmed, Bradyafrick I'm ready to release this 🧵as of 8:00 GMT:
#counteroffensive
#counteroffensive
Within the greater Velyka Novosilka axis there are three main thrusts: one from the north going down both banks of the Mokri Yali River, one from the northwest, and and one crossing the Shaitanka River.
Down the center I assess to be the main thrust with the 68th Jag BDE on the right bank and the and a multi BAT force from the 35th Marines and 129th Terr Def on the left clearing settlements there. This is supported by the 47 Art. BDE and the 4th Tank BDE on Flanking the 68th JAG
NEW: Ukrainian forces conducted #counteroffensive operations in at least three areas of the front and made territorial gains on June 10 & 11. Geolocated footage & Russian sources indicated that UKR forces liberated multiple settlements in western #Donetsk. isw.pub/UkrWar061123
2/ Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported that Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations in the #Bakhmut area, and Russian sources reported continued Ukrainian ground attacks on Bakhmut’s northern and southern flanks.
3/ Geolocated footage and Russian sources indicated that Ukrainian forces liberated multiple settlements during continued ground attacks south, southwest, and southeast of Velyka Novosilka in western #Donetsk Oblast. isw.pub/UkrWar061123
NEW: Ukrainian forces conducted #counteroffensive operations in at least four areas of the front on June 10.
Latest campaign assessment of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar061023
Latest campaign assessment of #Russia's invasion of #Ukraine w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar061023
2/ Russian sources reported Ukrainian activity in #Luhansk Oblast near Bilohorivka. isw.pub/UkrWar061023
3/ Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Serhiy Cherevaty noted that Ukrainian forces advanced up to 1,400m in unspecified areas of the #Bakhmut front, and Russian milbloggers reported Ukrainian advances northwest and northeast of Bakhmut. isw.pub/UkrWar061023
1/ ⚡️💡Po 6 dniach ofensywy na Zaporożu Ukraińcy przebili sie w kilku miejscach przez rosyjską pierwszą linię obrony. Ukraiński kanał Volya opublikował znów mapy i podał szacunki strat obu stron.
#RussianUkrainianWar #WojnaWUkrainie #counteroffensive
#RussianUkrainianWar #WojnaWUkrainie #counteroffensive
2/ Po przeanalizowaniu map, strat i innych faktów zawartych w artykule wydają się one nie odbiegać mocno od rzeczywistości, co pośrednio potwierdzać powoli i nie śmiało zaczynają również kanały rosyjskie.
3/ Naniosłem mapy z artykułu na mapy z zaznaczonymi rosyjskimi umocnieniami na Zaporożu oznaczonymi przez @GeoConfirmed.
🧵1/ Russia invaded Ukraine and the world food chain suffers.
Food & fertilizer prices spiked.
June 2's 4-party grain & Togliatti-Odesa pipeline deal has humanitarian & geopolitical ramifications.
June 6 the pipe was damaged June 6.
Who wins, why, & what role do sanctions play?
Food & fertilizer prices spiked.
June 2's 4-party grain & Togliatti-Odesa pipeline deal has humanitarian & geopolitical ramifications.
June 6 the pipe was damaged June 6.
Who wins, why, & what role do sanctions play?
🧵2/ The Togliatti-Odesa (also transliterated Tolyatti) pipeline runs 2471 km from TogliattiAzot, a chemical factory on the Volga owned by oligarch Dmitry Mazepin, a close associate of Putin, to Odesa.
fertilizerdaily.com/20221209-togli…
fertilizerdaily.com/20221209-togli…
🧵3/ Fertilizer and food are exempt from US & EU sanctions but Kommersant says RU fertilizer exports will fall 10% in 2022 from 2021.
Revenue remains ~$12.5B since prices are up.
RU shut the T-O pipeline in Feb 2022 like they shut Nordstream in June.
kommersant.ru/doc/5692695
Revenue remains ~$12.5B since prices are up.
RU shut the T-O pipeline in Feb 2022 like they shut Nordstream in June.
kommersant.ru/doc/5692695
💡1/Rosyjski reporter: "Z każdym kolejnym dniem walk coraz bardziej widoczne staje się wyczerpywanie pól minowych znajdujących się na przedpolach przed posterunkami, co znacznie osłabia potencjał obronny naszych oddziałów."
#WojnaWUkrainie #RussianUkrainianWar #counteroffensive
#WojnaWUkrainie #RussianUkrainianWar #counteroffensive
2/ "artyleria wroga orze nasze okopy, zmniejszając ich zdolność do ochrony personelu przed ostrzałem. Ogólnie rzecz biorąc, wróg konsekwentnie niszczy obronę"
3/ "Wprawdzie przeciwnikowi nie udało się jeszcze pokonać pierwszej linii obrony, za którą znajduje się druga i kolejne, to jednak potencjał przeciwnika jest daleki od zmarnowania..."
Latest video from Russian sources shows a Ukrainian column that seems to have come to grief in a minefield - the Bradley’s tracks have been blown off and a mine clearing tank is also in shot #counteroffensive 1/
The idea that Ukraine is still just conducting ‘probing attacks’ and hasn’t yet started the ‘full scale’ #counteroffensive is not credible. Leopard 2A6 and Bradley is main effort stuff 2/
As I explained last night @BBCNewsnight elements of 3 western trained brigades (33th, 37th Marines, and 47th) have already been identified on the Zaporizhzhia to Melitopol axis 3/
📢
Les choses ont donc bien bougées hier et les premières infos fiables tombent
Comme pressenti, c’est du côté de #Zaporijjia que les combats ont étés les plus violents. La poussée sur Tokmak a été assez forte
1/3
🇺🇦 #counteroffensive
Les choses ont donc bien bougées hier et les premières infos fiables tombent
Comme pressenti, c’est du côté de #Zaporijjia que les combats ont étés les plus violents. La poussée sur Tokmak a été assez forte
1/3
🇺🇦 #counteroffensive
Des éléments de plusieurs brigades équipées « à l’occidental » sont engagés (nouvellement la 47eme et ses M2-Bradley)
Pertes confirmées à ce jour côté🇺🇦 : 9 MaxxPro, 4 autres endommagés, 1 Mastiff et 1 endommagé, 1 char (T-72?), 1 Leopard 2A4 et 1 obusier Msta-b.
2/4
Pertes confirmées à ce jour côté🇺🇦 : 9 MaxxPro, 4 autres endommagés, 1 Mastiff et 1 endommagé, 1 char (T-72?), 1 Leopard 2A4 et 1 obusier Msta-b.
2/4
Plusieurs colonnes de blindés 🇺🇦 sont en mouvement et les défenseurs 🇷🇺 parlent d’une nuit compliquée
Les 🇺🇦 testent le dispositif 🇷🇺. Ils ciblent de nuit les point d’appui et les zones repérées sensibles
Y a de la casse, c’était attendu
Ça va s’accentuer à n’en pas douter
3/4
Les 🇺🇦 testent le dispositif 🇷🇺. Ils ciblent de nuit les point d’appui et les zones repérées sensibles
Y a de la casse, c’était attendu
Ça va s’accentuer à n’en pas douter
3/4
Ukrainian attacks in western #Zaporizhia on June 8 do not represent the full extent of Ukrainian capabilities in the current #counteroffensive. isw.pub/UkrWar060823
2/ #Ukraine appears to have committed only a portion of the large reserve of forces available for counteroffensive operations.
3/ It is additionally noteworthy that the Russian Southern Military District Forces deployed in this particular area are likely to be a higher quality force grouping than Russia has elsewhere in theater...
NEW: #Ukraine has conducted #counteroffensive operations with differential outcomes in at least three sectors of the front as part of wider counteroffensive efforts that have been unfolding since Sunday, June 4.
Latest assessment w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar060823
Latest assessment w/ @criticalthreats: isw.pub/UkrWar060823
2/ Ukrainian officials signaled that Ukrainian forces have transitioned from defensive to offensive operations in the #Bakhmut sector and are making gains of between 200 meters and nearly two kilometers on the flanks of the city.
3/ Ukrainian forces have made tactical gains during limited localized counterattacks in western #Donetsk Oblast near the #Donetsk-#Zaporizhia Oblast border since June 4.
The Ukrainian #counteroffensive has begun.
Activity throughout #Ukraine is consistent with a variety of indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are underway across the theater.
🧵on what we’re seeing & how to evaluate this activity ⬇️ isw.pub/InteractiveUkr…
Activity throughout #Ukraine is consistent with a variety of indicators that Ukrainian counteroffensive operations are underway across the theater.
🧵on what we’re seeing & how to evaluate this activity ⬇️ isw.pub/InteractiveUkr…
2/ Ukrainian officials have long signaled that there will not be an announcement that the #counteroffensive has begun.
3/ The #counteroffensive won’t likely unfold as a single grand operation. It will likely consist of many undertakings at numerous locations of varying size and intensity over many weeks.
More and more evidence coming out that an explosive force burst the dam. These signals would not have been detectable if the dam was destroyed by water and natural occurrences. @cirnosad @GeromanAT #NovaKakhovkaDam #crimea #counteroffensive #UkraineRussiaWar
Infrasound SIGINT from Romania also came out earlier today showing an anomalous reading consistent with an explosion at around the same time. #UkraineRussiaWar #Khakovkadam #crimea
This is on top of reports where locals were reporting a powerful explosion during the night and strange sounds following it. So far we have 3 independent confirmations through different signals that an explosion occurred at the dam. #RussiaUkraineWar
