Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #COVID19nsw

Most recents (24)

1/ Is PCR better than RAPID ANTIGEN TESTING?

Hereโ€™s the simple answer :

If you want to test to detect for infectious people - accurate Rapid Antigen Testing then RAT tests are the best option - for fast detection & isolation/limit spread

#covid19 @michaelmina_lab
2/ If you want to use PCR tests that are 10 times as expensive and take 1-4 days for a result to find out if you have minute viral fragments but not if you have a high viral load. Go for PCR.
3/ Read a tweet about comparison between RAPID ANTIGEN TESTING vs PCR (I have changed it slightly)

Rapid Test is like using binoculars to tell if there is a bird sitting on a branch in a tree in the distance - A PCR means you hike for days all the way to the tree, climbโ€ฆ
Read 4 tweets
NSW LGA monster wrap๐Ÿ‘ป

NSW as 3 different outbreaks: How do cases in the last 14 days compare with previous 14 days?

1. SW/W: -29% (daily cases shrinking)
2. Rest of Greater Syd: +25% (daily cases growing)
3. Regional NSW: +24% (daily cases growing)

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
Where daily cases are growing, is growth getting faster or slower?

Rest of Greater Sydney: Slower

14-day % change over the last week ...
+101%
+94%
+81%
+70%
+59%
+47%
+36%
+25%
Regional NSW: Faster

14-day % change over the last week ...
+2%
-3%
+2%
+2%
+4%
+14%
+18%
+24%
Read 17 tweets
Vaccine leaderboards

First doses -
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia: 75.4% (+0.6%)

ACT: 85.9% (+0.9%) (๐Ÿ‘‡ more on this below )
NSW: 85.2% (+0.5%)
VIC: 76.9% (+0.6%)
TAS: 74.3% (+0.6%)
SA: 65.6% (+0.5%)
NT: 64.9% (+0.4%)
QLD: 63.4% (+1.2%)
WA: 63.0% (+0.6%)

1/5

#covid19aus #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw
Full vax -
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia: 50.9% (+0.8%)

ACT: 60.3% (+0.8%)
NSW: 59.2% (+1.4%)
TAS: 55.7% (+0.6%)
NT: 50.7% (+0.7%)
SA: 47.1% (+0.6%)
VIC: 47.0% (+0.4%)
WA: 44.5% (+0.6%)
QLD: 44.5% (+0.5%)

2/5
NSW recently overtook ACT on the first dose leaderboard but lost that lead today

See how ACT is still charging ahead with first doses. They burst through 80% and no sign of slowing yet

Whereas ...

3/5 Image
Read 6 tweets
โšซ๏ธ NSW LGAs monster wrap ๐Ÿ‘ป

State summary -

Southwest / West Sydney: +601 = 11,102 ( -17%)๐Ÿ‘
Rest of Greater Sydney: +370 = 4,965 (๐Ÿ”บ59%)
Regional NSW: +79 = 779 (๐Ÿ”บ5%)

Data key:
+ Cases today = 14-day sum (+/- 14-day change %)

covid19data.com.au/nsw-lgas-cases
#covid19nsw #covid19aus Image
1. Southwest / West Sydney -

๐Ÿ“ Western Sydney: +261=4739 (-27%) ๐Ÿ‘Œ
Cumberland: +87 = 1831 (-42%) ๐Ÿ‘โ˜๏ธ
Parramatta: +30 = 451 (-27%)
Penrith: +46 = 684 (-21%)
Blacktown: +98 = 1770 (-5%) ๐Ÿ‘‡ Image
๐Ÿ“ Southwest Sydney: +340=6363 (-8%) ๐Ÿ‘
Camden: +12 = 314 (23%)
Campbelltown: +46 = 648 (14%)
Canterbury-Bankstown: +123 = 2821 (-20%) ๐Ÿ‘‡
Fairfield: +54 = 887 (-18%)
Liverpool: +105 = 1692 (14%) Image
Read 13 tweets
๐ŸงญLate-night NSW LGA monster wrap is back!๐Ÿ‘ป

This one is proper late ... by 2 weeks!

To the loyal monster wrappers, pls forgive me ๐Ÿ˜ญ

It desperately needed improvements and automations (it was really manual)

Here's how it's improved ...

#covid19aus #COVID19Vic #COVID19nsw
1. I now think of NSW and VIC as 3 separate outbreaks each, so the wrap is built around that breakdown:

- High-growth regions / corridors
- Rest of metro
- Regional

Note, this means some of the 'LGAs of concern' have been separated into diff regions (e.g. Burwood > inner west)
2. 14-day change now included (%). I.e. the last 14 days compared with the previous (yes, small numbers might mean big % changes but still useful. Also, 0 cases in previous 14 days mean % change isn't possible. In this situation, there is a ๐Ÿ‘‡ to see new cases below)
Read 26 tweets
Today weโ€™ll look around the world at countries which have had success at suppressing covid, the delta strain in particular, and see what lessons there might be for Australia.

Thread.
1/๐Ÿงต

#COVID19Vic #roadmap #CovidVictoria #COVID19nsw
This thread follows two previous threads on why the UK, and Israel/Alberta, are poor parallels to Australiaโ€™s covid situation.

2/๐Ÿงต
Thread on Israel and Alberta is here.

3/๐Ÿงต
Read 33 tweets
Welcome to the Sydney Lockdown day 84 โ€ฆ.

[Royal Botanic Gardens and the Sydney Opera House]

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown Image
Absent some good faith excuse or medical reason, I cannot comprehend why any medical/healthcare worker would not be fully vaccinated already.

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown

news.com.au/national/nsw-aโ€ฆ
One of many reasons that vaccination was always a race, contra Morrison, is this - rolling out vaccines en masse and speedily means you do not enter September with this occurring
#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown

smh.com.au/national/nsw/uโ€ฆ
Read 6 tweets
Welcome to the Sydney Lockdown day 80 โ€ฆ.

[Joseph Fowles, "Fort Street to Dawes Point", c1840s]

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown Image
While NSW is galloping to 70%, am hoping that this is true for the distance to 80% ... there will be a hardcore % of vax hesitant/vax bonkers that will not be insignificant in a State of 8m people

According to the Sky chryon running on @ljayes show this morning, Gladys is coming out to front the media this morning at 11am .... in 2025 we will still have 11am press conferences as our 'public health experts' caution it is too early to reopen

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown
Read 4 tweets
Welcome to the Sydney Lockdown day 79 โ€ฆ.

[Sydney Harbour Bridge and northern CBD from Luna Park]

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown Image
Gladystan 11am briefing with Gladys & Dr Chant - New South Wales in the last 24 hours:
- NSW now at 45.6% fully vaccinated
- NSW now at 78.1% first dose
- NSW has 1262 new local cases

NSW remains on track for 70% fully vaccinated by mid October

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown
Dr Chant emphasising that even healthy people who are unvaccinated can get Covid and die. Also on current trajectory, NSW should get to 80% first dose by Wednesday

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown
Read 7 tweets
Welcome to the Sydney Lockdown day 78 โ€ฆ.

[Sydney CBD from Kirribilli - Sydney Opera House at left and the Sydney Harbour Bridge at right]

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown
Gladystan 11am briefing with Brad "Chad" Hazzard - New South Wales in the last 24 hours:
- NSW now at 44.5% fully vaccinated
- NSW now at 77.3% first dose
- NSW has 1599 new local cases

NSW remains on track for 70% fully vaccinated by mid October

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown
Well said "Chad" @BradHazzard - go and get vaccinated, not just for you, but for your family, for your community, for the good of the country.

I can strongly recommend AZ, the unpretentious, local, journeyman, vaccine of the working man.

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown
Read 4 tweets
A short thread on why, as a Victorian, I care so much about #COVID19nsw.

Firstly, Victorians did so much to protect, not just Victoria but, the whole nation in 2020.
We locked down, we worked from home, we zoomed, we did PPE, we sat in a cold dark winter so the rest of Australia didnโ€™t get COVID.
It was hard, no one โ€œenjoyed itโ€, but we did it because it protected ourselves, our families, Victoria and the nation.
Secondly, We snapped into and out of lockdown whenever needed. Short notice? Fine. 5 days? No problem. Indefinite? Not ideal, but whateverโ€™s needed.
Read 9 tweets
Welcome to the Sydney Lockdown day 76 โ€ฆ.

[Mast of the original HMAS Sydney from the Great War with the Australian White Ensign hoisted, Bradleys Head, Sydney Harbour]

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown Image
Gladystan 11am briefing - New South Wales in the last 24 hours:
- NSW now at 42.7% fully vaccinated
- NSW now at 75.6% first dose
- 1405 new local cases
NSW on track for 70% fully vaccinated by mid October

Gladys has some 'roadmap to freedom'

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown
This is Gladys' NSW 'roadmap to freedom' for the fully vaccinated from the Monday in October after which we hit 70% fully vaccinated. It is pretty lame but compared to Victoria, it is "Gladys Gone Wild"

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown

Read 4 tweets
NSW R_eff as of September 6th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.20 ยฑ 0.05

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
NSW R_eff as of September 6th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.20 ยฑ 0.05

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 1.28 ยฑ 0.05
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 1.43 ยฑ 0.07

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Read 4 tweets
So many numbers swirling around this weekend about NSW hospitalisation rates

3 big questions:

1. What on earth is the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

2. How is it calculated?

3. Should Hospital In The Home (HITH) be included?

Let's go into the weeds๐ŸŒฑ

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
Q1 - What's the hospitalisation rate in NSW?

The NSW Surveillance Report now tells us this in black and white (it just added this new piece of info last week)

In the most recent report (data to Aug 21), it says it's 11%

Two things to know about this ...
i) Think of it as 'at least 11%' b/c it doesn't account for the lag between new cases and hospitalisations. The report itself acknowledges this

ii) Dr Jeremy McAnulty confirmed yday this rate *DOES NOT* include HITH (sorry for the caps, but that's important)
Read 17 tweets
NSW R_eff as of September 5th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.27 ยฑ 0.05

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
NSW R_eff as of September 5th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.27 ยฑ 0.05

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 1.27 ยฑ 0.05
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 1.27 ยฑ 0.07

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney
Read 5 tweets
NSW R_eff as of September 4th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.29 ยฑ 0.05

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
NSW R_eff as of September 4th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.29 ยฑ 0.05

Plus projected effect of vaccination rollout.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 1.27 ยฑ 0.05
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 1.27 ยฑ 0.07

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic
Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar ๐Ÿค“
It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -
Read 9 tweets
๐ŸงญNSW LGA monster wrap ๐Ÿ‘ป Cases
๐Ÿ‘ = progress
๐Ÿ‘ˆ = big % changes + unlinked cases

โšซ๏ธ State wrap

๐Ÿฆ Cases - Last 14 days, +today
๐Ÿ“ 12 LGAs of Concern: 10734, +932
๐Ÿ“ Western NSW: 582, +31
๐Ÿ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1515, +27
๐Ÿ“ Hunter New England: 44, +6

#covid19nsw #covid19aus
๐Ÿ“ Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
๐Ÿ“ Southern NSW: 3,+0

๐Ÿ”ŽUnder Investigation - Total, +today
๐Ÿ“ 12 LGAs of Concern: 10872,+645
๐Ÿ“ Western NSW: 368,+9
๐Ÿ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1122,+41
๐Ÿ“ Hunter New England: 78,+1
๐Ÿ“ Mid/North Coast: 1,+0
๐Ÿ“ Armidale/Northern Rivers: 1,+0
๐Ÿ“ Southern NSW: 2,-1
Read 23 tweets
1/ The LNP have hijacked the conversation regarding The National Plan to Transition Australiaโ€™s COVID19 Response. I wanted to keep track of the propaganda & myths surrounding it.

#covid19nsw
#covid19vic
#covid19aus Image
2/ MYTH: โ€œThe plan says that we must lift all lockdowns at 70% (phase b)โ€.

TRUTH: The plan includes the possibility of lockdowns at both 70% & 80% (phases b & c).
3/ MYTH: โ€œThe plan states that all border closures must cease at 70% (phase b).โ€
Read 11 tweets
NSW Premier said today the rate of hospitalisation is about 5.5%. She has previously said it was about 5%

Either way, this is artificially low because of the way NSW defines active cases

Short ๐Ÿงต- 1/6

#covid19nsw #COVID19Aus
Today, NSW reports 17,999 active cases

That's the sum of approx. last *30 days* of cases

There are 871 people in hospital

= 4.8% hospitalisation rate

In contrast ...

2/6
VIC reports 841 active cases today

That's the sum of approx. last *13 days* of cases

There are 52 people in hospital

= 6.2% hospitalisation rate

3/6
Read 6 tweets
Welcome to the Sydney Lockdown day 67 โ€ฆ.

[HMS Formidable berthed at Circular Quay, Sydney, Jan 1945]

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown
Gladystan 11am briefing - New South Wales in the last 24hrs:
- NSW now at 67% first dose
- almost 7m jabs now in NSW
- 1164 new local cases
- 143 people in ICUs / 58 require ventilation.

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown
This outstanding Nurse Manager for Liverpool Hospital stressing we now have whole family units with Covid & often families where Mother & Father have Covid - and there is no one to look after children. Ends by asking people to please get Vaccinated
#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown
Read 7 tweets
How do people not see ๐Ÿ‘€
Do you see it yet
Do you see it yet
Read 75 tweets
Just when I was about to have a whinge about lack of data this weekend @datansw came through with the goods at about 6pm

That means ...

๐Ÿงญ It's the NSW LGA Monster Wrap ๐Ÿ‘ป

Chart - LGAs of concern v Rest of Syd / NSW
*Yellow ~28 days behind blue*

#covid19aus #covid19nsw
๐Ÿฆ Cases (Last 14 days, +Saturday, +Sunday)

๐Ÿ“ 12 LOCS: 9222, +1126, +746
๐Ÿ“ Western NSW: 513, +49, +21
๐Ÿ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 1285, +188, +95
๐Ÿ“ Hunter New England: 72, +7, +3
๐Ÿ“ Mid/North Coast: 2, 0, 0
๐Ÿ“ Southern NSW: 2, 0, 0
๐Ÿ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 0 last 14 days ๐Ÿ‘
๐Ÿ”ŽUnder Investigation (Total, +Saturday, +Sunday)

๐Ÿ“ 12 LOCS: 8756, +770, +668
๐Ÿ“ Western NSW: 295, +17, +11
๐Ÿ“ Rest of Greater Sydney: 945, +106, +72
๐Ÿ“ Hunter New England: 74, +6, +0
๐Ÿ“ Mid/North Coast: 1, 0, 0
๐Ÿ“ Southern NSW: 1, 0, 0
๐Ÿ“ Armidale/Nthn Rivers: 1, 0, 0
Read 25 tweets
Welcome to the Sydney Lockdown day 65 โ€ฆ.

[Sydney from Milsons Point]

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown
Covid Zero is a destructive fantasy - even the Victorian ALP of Daniel Andrews is recognising this fact now.

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown

theage.com.au/national/victoโ€ฆ
The lockdowns made sense as a form of needed suppression but they are not working against Delta & now we are destroying the young people of whatever village we are trying to save.

#Covid19NSW #SydneyLockdown

smh.com.au/national/nsw/mโ€ฆ
Read 5 tweets

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