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The good news is that the rate in which employed workers are going directly into *permanent* layoff has fallen, though is still elevated [left].
The bad news is that the rate at which already-nonemployed workers are *becoming* permanent layoffs is high and rising [right].
The bad news is that the rate at which already-nonemployed workers are *becoming* permanent layoffs is high and rising [right].
Meanwhile, hourly wage growth among workers keeping their jobs is stable [L], but weekly wage growth has fallen [R], a sign that employed workers are getting fewer hours.
A few quick and dirty #CPSMicrodataDay charts, as I ponder other ones.
According to the household survey, broad labor market disruption fell by 8 million people in May, but there are still 32 million people who have left jobs or had their hours involuntarily cut since February. /1
We need to be very cautious about CPS data right now, but one interesting result: median same-worker wage growth hasn't slowed significantly yet, either on an hourly or weekly basis.
That's not what we would expect in such a sharp downturn, though perhaps this takes time. /2
That's not what we would expect in such a sharp downturn, though perhaps this takes time. /2
There are lots of topics potentially of interest of course. I created my normal batch of charts during very different, happier economic times.
So for the moment, I thought I'd cull down the list and focus on just a handful that are relevant. Suggestions for others welcome. /1
So for the moment, I thought I'd cull down the list and focus on just a handful that are relevant. Suggestions for others welcome. /1
First off, 40 million Americans have seen a major work disruption since February: either losing/leaving their jobs, being put on furlough, or having their hours cut involuntarily.
*Less than half* of these disruptions are accounted for by the rise in the unemployed. /2
*Less than half* of these disruptions are accounted for by the rise in the unemployed. /2
Median wage growth is steady at around 3.6% over the last 3M. Some signs over the past year that the recent re-acceleration may be over. /1
The weakness in IT wage growth may have turned a corner, but on the other hand manufacturing and construction wage growth has been softening a bit. /2
