Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CTM
Most recents (15)
#FMAN - #MarineNationale ๐ซ๐ทโ๏ธ
#H160 #HIL #FlotteIntรฉrimaire
ยฉ Airbus Helicopters. H160 nยฐ008.
โก๏ธ 1ier H160 FI (Flotte Intรฉrimaire), ayant dรฉbutรฉ ses essais en vol le 14 fรฉvrier 2022, va recevoir prochainement ses รฉquipements dits de ยซย navalisationย ยป.
Livraison mai 2022 ?
#H160 #HIL #FlotteIntรฉrimaire
ยฉ Airbus Helicopters. H160 nยฐ008.
โก๏ธ 1ier H160 FI (Flotte Intรฉrimaire), ayant dรฉbutรฉ ses essais en vol le 14 fรฉvrier 2022, va recevoir prochainement ses รฉquipements dits de ยซย navalisationย ยป.
Livraison mai 2022 ?
โก๏ธ Emploi opรฉrationnel des six exemplaires du H160 FI permettra de finaliser la dรฉfinition matรฉrielle des H160M, notamment en ce qui concerne le soutien et donc le MCOโฆ ainsi que certains รฉquipements spรฉcifiques aux opรฉrations de contre-terrorisme, avec la Gendarmerie ?
Plus largement certains futurs รฉquipements du H160M, outre lโEuroflir 410 nativement intรฉgrรฉe ?
โก๏ธ Les 6 exemplaires de lโAirbus Hรฉlicoptรจres H160 FI seront stationnรฉs et dรฉployรฉs depuis les la BAN Lanvรฉoc-Poulmic, la BAN Hyรจres Le Palyvestre et BAN Cherbourg-Maupertus afin de
โก๏ธ Les 6 exemplaires de lโAirbus Hรฉlicoptรจres H160 FI seront stationnรฉs et dรฉployรฉs depuis les la BAN Lanvรฉoc-Poulmic, la BAN Hyรจres Le Palyvestre et BAN Cherbourg-Maupertus afin de
#BTC had a 15% correction from its ATH. Is the cycle peak in?
Nope! Based on past cycles, BTC is at Wave 6 & if its low is in, BTC could be onto Wave 7๐soon!
TLDR:
Wave 5 Peak: $69K
Wave 6 Low: $58.6K? Lowest: ~$53K
Peak Timing: December 2021
Cycle Peak: ~$190K-$260K
Nope! Based on past cycles, BTC is at Wave 6 & if its low is in, BTC could be onto Wave 7๐soon!
TLDR:
Wave 5 Peak: $69K
Wave 6 Low: $58.6K? Lowest: ~$53K
Peak Timing: December 2021
Cycle Peak: ~$190K-$260K
The current macro environment has brought a lot of uncertainty to investors around the globe. From supply chain issues to inflation & unemployment, the end result of this economic boiling pot will all come down to the federal reserve and its monetary policy stance.
Our job as investors is to identify & anticipate this trends to be 1 step ahead of the โnext big turnโthatโs the objective of this thread.
Here we have the 10yr treasury yield chart,
Ass you can see, yields have been respecting that downward mega channel for the past 30 years.
I also marked the periods where fed tightened monetary policy & show some charts of how equities reacted.
Ass you can see, yields have been respecting that downward mega channel for the past 30 years.
I also marked the periods where fed tightened monetary policy & show some charts of how equities reacted.
๐๐ง๐ #๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ป-๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ต๐ฏ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ: ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ฐ๐ฏ '๐ฎ๐ญ
๐ฃ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐
TLDR: BTC's cycle peak is projected to be in Dec 2021 amidst the Fed's tapering.
BTC is en route to its cycle peak & its price may break out sharply higher soon.
๐ฃ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐
TLDR: BTC's cycle peak is projected to be in Dec 2021 amidst the Fed's tapering.
BTC is en route to its cycle peak & its price may break out sharply higher soon.
The missing #BTC on-chain peak indicators๐งต๐
๐ญ๐ฎ. ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking BTC's cycle peak. The bear phase bottom tracker is based on BTC's moving average price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐ญ๐ฎ. ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking BTC's cycle peak. The bear phase bottom tracker is based on BTC's moving average price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐ญ๐ฏ. ๐๐ถ๐ฏ ๐ ๐๐น๐๐ถ๐ฝ๐น๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐๐ง๐ #๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ป-๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ต๐ฏ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ: ๐ช๐ธ๐ ๐ฐ๐ญ & ๐ฐ๐ฎ '๐ฎ๐ญ
๐ฃ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐
TLDR: BTC broke its ATH so it isn't in its bear phase as shown repeatedly here.
5 indicators show that BTC is on #CTM Wave 2 & on its way to its cycle peak.
๐ฃ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐
TLDR: BTC broke its ATH so it isn't in its bear phase as shown repeatedly here.
5 indicators show that BTC is on #CTM Wave 2 & on its way to its cycle peak.
๐ญ ๐๐๐น๐น ๐ฃ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ & ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ผ๐บ
๐ญ๐ฎ. ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐ญ๐ฎ. ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐ญ๐ฏ. ๐๐ถ๐ฏ ๐ ๐๐น๐๐ถ๐ฝ๐น๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.
BTC hasn't peaked yet.
A tale of 3 adjoined arcs
#BTC's price action rhymes in each cycle. Using chart patterns & log fib retracement, the current rally high, point of lift-off to the cycle peak & peak price are determined.
TLDR:
Current Rally high: ~$71K
Lift-off: ~$83K
Cycle Peak: ~$250K
#BTC's price action rhymes in each cycle. Using chart patterns & log fib retracement, the current rally high, point of lift-off to the cycle peak & peak price are determined.
TLDR:
Current Rally high: ~$71K
Lift-off: ~$83K
Cycle Peak: ~$250K
1a/ It is found that in each cycle around this time of the year, #BTC price will form two adjoined arcs similar to a cup & handle pattern.
The height of the smaller arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the rally high, which is also called #CTM Wave 2 Peak.
The height of the smaller arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the rally high, which is also called #CTM Wave 2 Peak.
1b/ The height of the larger arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the lift-off price level, from which #BTC will rally to its blow-off top.
BTC just broke out of the smaller arc. Thus, the current rally high is ~$71K. The lift-off price level is ~$83K.
BTC just broke out of the smaller arc. Thus, the current rally high is ~$71K. The lift-off price level is ~$83K.
Here is another example of on-chain data, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), showing similar patterns between #BTC's current cycle and that in 2013 right before & after the mid-cycle correction.
TLDR: BTC could break its ATH by early Nov. 2021.
Cycle peak price: $410K?
TLDR: BTC could break its ATH by early Nov. 2021.
Cycle peak price: $410K?
1/ #BTC's NUPL is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric is calculated by subtracting realized cap from market cap, and dividing the result by the market cap. It is a measure of BTC's market sentiment.
medium.com/@adamant_capitโฆ
medium.com/@adamant_capitโฆ
I have *UPDATED* my price & timing predictions for #Bitcoin $BTC after lining up price history & considering the varying interpretations of the macro backdrop and cycle behavior.
Estimated Peak Date: December 17/18
Estimate Price Range: 193k-253k
More below๐ (with charts)
Estimated Peak Date: December 17/18
Estimate Price Range: 193k-253k
More below๐ (with charts)
The price & timing predictions are predicated on the following rhyming patterns in all cycles thus far:
1. The 1st upside impulse above the 1.618 golden ratio usually peaks near where the next bear market low will be, before a major pullback.
1. The 1st upside impulse above the 1.618 golden ratio usually peaks near where the next bear market low will be, before a major pullback.
2. Price successfully retests and holds the 1.618 golden ratio.
3a. Price peaks between the 2.236 and 2.382 fib levels.
3b. The bear market low is approximately 85% (+/- 2%) down from the peak
**3a and 3b are marked as such because they confirm each other in each cycle.
3a. Price peaks between the 2.236 and 2.382 fib levels.
3b. The bear market low is approximately 85% (+/- 2%) down from the peak
**3a and 3b are marked as such because they confirm each other in each cycle.
๐๐ง๐ #๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ป-๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ต๐ฏ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ: ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ฐ๐ฌ '๐ฎ๐ญ
Price Action Indicators (Fundamentals that affect BTC's price)
TLDR: ๐
1. Miner metrics- Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Mod. Bullish
4. Network metrics- Bullish
Price Action Indicators (Fundamentals that affect BTC's price)
TLDR: ๐
1. Miner metrics- Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Mod. Bullish
4. Network metrics- Bullish
๐ญ. ๐ ๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ๐
a(i) The hash rate for #BTC miners continues to recover after the China mining ban. This has caused a global reshuffle of BTC mining hash rate such that the US has now emerged as the global leader in BTC mining as per the latest report from CCAF.
a(i) The hash rate for #BTC miners continues to recover after the China mining ban. This has caused a global reshuffle of BTC mining hash rate such that the US has now emerged as the global leader in BTC mining as per the latest report from CCAF.
1a(ii) Technically, the #BTC hash rate forms an ascending channel. It challenged the key resistance level at 177E, which is also near the top of the channel, but got rejected. It's since recovered & is again on a run to challenge the resistance. Bullish!
๐๐ง๐ #๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ป-๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ถ๐ป ๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฟ๐ถ๐ฐ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ต๐ฏ๐ผ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฑ: ๐ช๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ธ ๐ฐ๐ฌ '๐ฎ๐ญ
๐ฃ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ (๐ญ๐ญ this wk)
TLDR: BTC hasn't peaked or is in its bear phase.
The 30D MA metrics, RHODL, & NUPL indicate that BTC has exited #CTM Wave 1* low & onto Wave 2*.
*๐
๐ฃ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ธ ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ (๐ญ๐ญ this wk)
TLDR: BTC hasn't peaked or is in its bear phase.
The 30D MA metrics, RHODL, & NUPL indicate that BTC has exited #CTM Wave 1* low & onto Wave 2*.
*๐
๐ญ ๐๐๐น๐น ๐ฃ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ & ๐๐ฒ๐ฎ๐ฟ ๐ฃ๐ต๐ฎ๐๐ฒ ๐๐ผ๐๐๐ผ๐บ
๐ญ๐ฎ. ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.
BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.
๐ญ๐ฎ. ๐ง๐ผ๐ฝ ๐๐ฎ๐ฝ ๐ ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.
BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.
๐ญ๐ฏ. ๐๐ถ๐ฏ ๐ ๐๐น๐๐ถ๐ฝ๐น๐ถ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.
BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.
BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.
Why is $GBTC still trading at a discount? Would it trade back at a premium? Will we see a blow-off top for $GBTC as #BTCโs price goes parabolic?
TLDR: Long story. No, unless certain conditions prevail, but not this year. Yes, projected peak $GBTC price: $150-$240.
TLDR: Long story. No, unless certain conditions prevail, but not this year. Yes, projected peak $GBTC price: $150-$240.
If you don't know much about $GBTC (Grayscale #Bitcoin Trust), you could read the following tweet about $GBTC as a quick refresher.
1/ Why is $GBTC trading at a discount?
$GBTC will be in discount when its price is trading lower than its #BTC holdings/share outstanding. Simply, investors are unwilling to buy $GBTC unless its value its lower relative to BTC.
$GBTC will be in discount when its price is trading lower than its #BTC holdings/share outstanding. Simply, investors are unwilling to buy $GBTC unless its value its lower relative to BTC.
I tweet the following regularly:
1. #Bitcoin Top Cap Model Peak Price Tracker
2. #CTM BTC On-Chain Metric Dashboards
3. BTC 60-Day Volatility & Cycle Peak Timing
4. TA
The tweets in this thread link to my best analysis of #BTC. Hope you find them useful for your BTC journey.
๐
1. #Bitcoin Top Cap Model Peak Price Tracker
2. #CTM BTC On-Chain Metric Dashboards
3. BTC 60-Day Volatility & Cycle Peak Timing
4. TA
The tweets in this thread link to my best analysis of #BTC. Hope you find them useful for your BTC journey.
๐
2(i). Determining #Bitcoin Cycle Peak
a. Timing of BTC Peak Using 60-day Volatility Metric:
b. Using MVRV-Z Score to Exit BTC Cycle Peak
a. Timing of BTC Peak Using 60-day Volatility Metric:
b. Using MVRV-Z Score to Exit BTC Cycle Peak
#CTM has done a masterful job in building an accurate pricing model for #BTC. Kudos to @jclcapital, @irandall13 & @tboydsto.
Using TA, trend angles & parabolas, I also built one on a log BLX chart.
Projected Cycle Top
- Price: $340K
- Date: 12/20/21 (=Top Cap Model's)
Using TA, trend angles & parabolas, I also built one on a log BLX chart.
Projected Cycle Top
- Price: $340K
- Date: 12/20/21 (=Top Cap Model's)
1/ How is the #BTC model built?
a. Use log scale on price.
b. Draw parallel trend lines to connect the highs and lows of candles & use Tradingview's auto feature to clone the parallel trend lines.
c. Draw parabolas to fit all the lows of each cycle.
a. Use log scale on price.
b. Draw parallel trend lines to connect the highs and lows of candles & use Tradingview's auto feature to clone the parallel trend lines.
c. Draw parabolas to fit all the lows of each cycle.
2/
d. The parabolas should intersect at the market top of a cycle. On the BLX chart, 12/4/2013 & 12/16/2017 are used as the dates for the market tops instead.
e. A trend line is drawn to connect the market tops of #BTC in 2013 & 2017 (blue).
d. The parabolas should intersect at the market top of a cycle. On the BLX chart, 12/4/2013 & 12/16/2017 are used as the dates for the market tops instead.
e. A trend line is drawn to connect the market tops of #BTC in 2013 & 2017 (blue).
I've developed 4 #BTC indicators using @glassnode's workbench for detecting:
1. Buy & sell signals
2. Bear phase bottom
3. Top before final lift off + Timing of blow-off top
4. Best BTC accumulation periods
Also, I've rebuilt Willy Woo's Top Cap model for finding BTC's peak.
1. Buy & sell signals
2. Bear phase bottom
3. Top before final lift off + Timing of blow-off top
4. Best BTC accumulation periods
Also, I've rebuilt Willy Woo's Top Cap model for finding BTC's peak.
1a. Buy & Sell Signals
This indicator is developed from #BTC's moving average price. It gives accurate buy & sell signals of BTC.
It's simple to use: Whenever BTC's price is above the orange trend line, buy. Otherwise, sell.
It's now a good time to buy #Bitcoin!
This indicator is developed from #BTC's moving average price. It gives accurate buy & sell signals of BTC.
It's simple to use: Whenever BTC's price is above the orange trend line, buy. Otherwise, sell.
It's now a good time to buy #Bitcoin!
1b. To simplify things further, I have made an oscillator for this Buy & Sell Signals indicator.
Note that when this oscillator > 2, #BTC is near an interim top or cycle top.
Oscillator >= 1 โก๏ธ Buy
Oscillator < 1โก๏ธ Sell
Oscillator >2 โก๏ธ Near interim or cycle top
Note that when this oscillator > 2, #BTC is near an interim top or cycle top.
Oscillator >= 1 โก๏ธ Buy
Oscillator < 1โก๏ธ Sell
Oscillator >2 โก๏ธ Near interim or cycle top
Deducing #BTC's Peak Price from its Golden Crosses*
TLDR: There'd be a relationship between when the first golden cross occurs after a BTC bear phase & its peak price. The secret lies in "4".
If so, BTC's peak price may be $143K in this cycle (see Notes).
*50d EMA ๐ 200d EMA
TLDR: There'd be a relationship between when the first golden cross occurs after a BTC bear phase & its peak price. The secret lies in "4".
If so, BTC's peak price may be $143K in this cycle (see Notes).
*50d EMA ๐ 200d EMA
1/ Right before the 1st halving, a golden cross occurred & #BTC rallied 235x from the golden cross daily closing price to the 2nd cycle top.
Similarly, after the bear phase of the 2nd cycle, a golden cross occurred & BTC's price rallied 60x to the 3rd cycle top.
NB: 235/60= ~4
Similarly, after the bear phase of the 2nd cycle, a golden cross occurred & BTC's price rallied 60x to the 3rd cycle top.
NB: 235/60= ~4
2a/ Right after the bear phase of the 3rd cycle, a golden cross also occurred & #BTC's price rallied 12.5X from the golden cross daily closing price to its ATH of $64.9K.
A mid-cycle correction ensued where BTC corrected by 55% & BTC's price dipped below its 200 day EMA.
A mid-cycle correction ensued where BTC corrected by 55% & BTC's price dipped below its 200 day EMA.
