Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CTM

Most recents (24)

#FMAN - #MarineNationale ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ทโš“๏ธ
#H160 #HIL #FlotteIntรฉrimaire

ยฉ Airbus Helicopters. H160 nยฐ008.

โžก๏ธ 1ier H160 FI (Flotte Intรฉrimaire), ayant dรฉbutรฉ ses essais en vol le 14 fรฉvrier 2022, va recevoir prochainement ses รฉquipements dits de ยซย navalisationย ยป.

Livraison mai 2022 ? Image
โžก๏ธ Emploi opรฉrationnel des six exemplaires du H160 FI permettra de finaliser la dรฉfinition matรฉrielle des H160M, notamment en ce qui concerne le soutien et donc le MCOโ€ฆ ainsi que certains รฉquipements spรฉcifiques aux opรฉrations de contre-terrorisme, avec la Gendarmerie ?
Plus largement certains futurs รฉquipements du H160M, outre lโ€™Euroflir 410 nativement intรฉgrรฉe ?

โžก๏ธ Les 6 exemplaires de lโ€™Airbus Hรฉlicoptรจres H160 FI seront stationnรฉs et dรฉployรฉs depuis les la BAN Lanvรฉoc-Poulmic, la BAN Hyรจres Le Palyvestre et BAN Cherbourg-Maupertus afin de
Read 12 tweets
#BTC had a 15% correction from its ATH. Is the cycle peak in?

Nope! Based on past cycles, BTC is at Wave 6 & if its low is in, BTC could be onto Wave 7๐Ÿ“ˆsoon!

TLDR:
Wave 5 Peak: $69K
Wave 6 Low: $58.6K? Lowest: ~$53K
Peak Timing: December 2021
Cycle Peak: ~$190K-$260K
1. #BTC didn't reach its bull flag price target of $71K. As it broke Trend Line A, Wave 5 Peak (#CTM Wave 2 peak) is in.

Based on past cycles, the correction from Wave 5 to 6 is 27%-30%. As Wave 5 peak is lower than past cycles', Wave 6 low could be in. Lowest is >$53K. Why?
2. Note #BTC's Wave 6 low (#CTM Wave 2 low) couldn't be lower than Wave 3 peak (CTM Wave 1 peak), which is at $53K (~0.5 Fib ext).

After the Wave 6 correction, BTC should continue its surge to its cycle peak (Wave 7-11).

What is the cycle peak given the current price action?
Read 4 tweets
The current macro environment has brought a lot of uncertainty to investors around the globe. From supply chain issues to inflation & unemployment, the end result of this economic boiling pot will all come down to the federal reserve and its monetary policy stance.
Our job as investors is to identify & anticipate this trends to be 1 step ahead of the โ€œnext big turnโ€thatโ€™s the objective of this thread.
Here we have the 10yr treasury yield chart,
Ass you can see, yields have been respecting that downward mega channel for the past 30 years.
I also marked the periods where fed tightened monetary policy & show some charts of how equities reacted. ImageImageImage
Read 6 tweets
Exiting Altcoins:
This thread explores multiple strategies on exiting altcoins at the end of the bull cycle. Some are more advanced than others but the goal of nailing the peak is not for everyone, you just need to get out somewhere near. Thank you for reading ๐Ÿ‘‡
$BTC #CTM #ALTS
1. Beginning with some comparisons of where Altcoins in the past have peaked in relation to Bitcoin. First on the list is Ethereum in 2017:
2. Now comparing 2017 to how ETH peaked for mid cycle in 2021:
Read 19 tweets
This 'exiting altcoins' thread is going to be a lot of work but I think you will like it a lot.

Naturally I cannot cover every Altcoin but I am going to show you a selection of examples using the strategy and then you can take this and implement it yourself.
$BTC #CTM #Bitcoin
Here is some memery to entertain you in the meantime.

When we spot le stupid big candle:
Post cycle peak life
Read 4 tweets
We are bearing witness to the Bitcoin cyber ants building a space port for 84k.
$BTC #CTM #Bitcoin
Gimme your best bullish gifs
Green candles
Read 6 tweets
Bitcoin's 4 year cycle:
This thread presents a guide to the 4 year cycle of Bitcoin, which is fundamentally vital to understanding how the market currently moves. Lot's of work has gone into this one, your engagement is greatly appreciated!
$BTC #CTM #4yearcycle #Bitcoin ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡
1. We begin with the 'halving' event. The halving of the miners reward which triggers the bull market phase:
2. After the halving event comes the bull market phase which we are currently experiencing:
Read 12 tweets
Final Alt Season Picks:
This thread examines a short list of Altcoins to rotate into post Bitcoin's cycle peak if it occurs in such a manner as it did for the mid cycle peak. Thank you for reading, like and retweet if you find this useful ๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿ‘‡
$ALTS #Altcoins #Altseason #CTM
1. Disclaimer, in order for an Alt to make this short list we are looking for 2 things. One, an alt that made a powerful move to the upside and two, it made this move after Bitcoin had topped mid cycle:
2. Beginning with Ethereum. We can see that ETH had a move after Bitcoin peaked out mid cycle however this move was not very big. As @jclcapital pointed out small moves may not be worth the risk to reward, something larger may be preferable:
Read 14 tweets
๐—–๐—ง๐—  #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ข๐—ป-๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ: ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฏ '๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ

๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€

TLDR: BTC's cycle peak is projected to be in Dec 2021 amidst the Fed's tapering.

BTC is en route to its cycle peak & its price may break out sharply higher soon.
The missing #BTC on-chain peak indicators๐Ÿงต๐Ÿ‘‡

๐Ÿญ๐—ฎ. ๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking BTC's cycle peak. The bear phase bottom tracker is based on BTC's moving average price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐Ÿญ๐—ฏ. ๐—™๐—ถ๐—ฏ ๐— ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.
Read 19 tweets
I have remade the cycle peak price action charts below. As a note, regardless of my price prediction of 450k-520k I will be exiting based on price action not price predictions (more info below). Credits to @jclcapital for being the first to spot this peak PA.
$BTC #CTM #Bitcoin
Collaged as one image:
To expand on my initial point, if price say reaches 200k or 300k and the above price action is occurring and/or proven indicators are signalling a cycle peak then I will be exiting. Price targets being reached or not reached do not signal an exit.
Read 4 tweets
The Bitcoin Matrix:
This thread explores the mysterious and miraculous consistencies that have occurred across the 3 bull cycles of Bitcoin. At the core is divine mathematics which Deepak Chopra described as a reflection of the values of the cosmos. ๐Ÿ‘‡
$BTC #Bitcoin #CTM
1. First let's begin with the mathematical theme of an average of 2013 and 2017 we see playing out in the 2021 cycle. The initial point of interest being the gains to the upside for the first half of the bull run:
2. When the mid cycle drawdown came around, everyone was screaming Elon and manipulation. Whilst I don't doubt these two things were in play, the drawdown was almost an exact average of the previous 2 cycle's. And touched the golden ratio for the third cycle running:
Read 13 tweets
๐—–๐—ง๐—  #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ข๐—ป-๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ: ๐—ช๐—ธ๐˜€ ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿญ & ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฎ '๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ

๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€

TLDR: BTC broke its ATH so it isn't in its bear phase as shown repeatedly here.

5 indicators show that BTC is on #CTM Wave 2 & on its way to its cycle peak.
๐Ÿญ ๐—•๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐—ฃ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ฝ & ๐—•๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ ๐—ฃ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ผ๐˜๐˜๐—ผ๐—บ

๐Ÿญ๐—ฎ. ๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.
๐Ÿญ๐—ฏ. ๐—™๐—ถ๐—ฏ ๐— ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC hasn't peaked yet.
Read 15 tweets
A tale of 3 adjoined arcs

#BTC's price action rhymes in each cycle. Using chart patterns & log fib retracement, the current rally high, point of lift-off to the cycle peak & peak price are determined.

TLDR:
Current Rally high: ~$71K
Lift-off: ~$83K
Cycle Peak: ~$250K
1a/ It is found that in each cycle around this time of the year, #BTC price will form two adjoined arcs similar to a cup & handle pattern.

The height of the smaller arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the rally high, which is also called #CTM Wave 2 Peak.
1b/ The height of the larger arc gives the price increase from the point of breakout to the lift-off price level, from which #BTC will rally to its blow-off top.

BTC just broke out of the smaller arc. Thus, the current rally high is ~$71K. The lift-off price level is ~$83K.
Read 4 tweets
Here is another example of on-chain data, Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL), showing similar patterns between #BTC's current cycle and that in 2013 right before & after the mid-cycle correction.

TLDR: BTC could break its ATH by early Nov. 2021.
Cycle peak price: $410K? Image
1/ #BTC's NUPL is the difference between Relative Unrealized Profit and Relative Unrealized Loss. This metric is calculated by subtracting realized cap from market cap, and dividing the result by the market cap. It is a measure of BTC's market sentiment.

medium.com/@adamant_capitโ€ฆ
2a/ We can see that #BTC's NUPL chart shows a 5-wave pattern before & after the mid-cycle correction that is similar in the 2013 & 2021 bull phases.

NUPL Wave 2 โžก๏ธ Mid-Cycle Low Price
NUPL Wave 5 โžก๏ธ #CTM Wave 1 Low Price
Read 5 tweets
Symmetry across 3 cycles:
1. This thread compiles much of the work I have done over the past few months, highlighting the symmetry and key occurrences in this cycle comparing to the 2 previous. This is purely my perspective and should not be taken as the only possible outcome. ๐Ÿ‘‡
2. As discussed in my previous post, this cycle is showing itself as a double wave, similar to that of 2013. The first half of the cycle was an average of the previous 2 in gains to the upside. We await the second half's completion.
3. The mid cycle drawdown was also an average of the previous 2 cycles. As pointed out by @irandall13 it is interesting that despite where the halving date is in the year, all cycles converge for mid cycle in July of the following year.
Read 14 tweets
1. Question:
When people see the massive consolidation we have had over the past months, akin to 2013. Do they really see this cycle ending with 100-200k? Everything I have seen and presented points to a huge mania phase ahead, only because it appears so. (Thread๐Ÿ‘‡)
#Bitcoin #CTM
2. Increased returns on the first half of this bull run are the first indication that this cycle will not finish with diminished returns. The first half in both previous cycles has been an indicator of the second half:
3.2017 had diminished returns and in it's structure it clearly shows. 2017 was not a double wave cycle it was a slow ascent. Mid cycle has been historically a glimpse at what is coming for the second half.
Read 9 tweets
I have *UPDATED* my price & timing predictions for #Bitcoin $BTC after lining up price history & considering the varying interpretations of the macro backdrop and cycle behavior.

Estimated Peak Date: December 17/18
Estimate Price Range: 193k-253k

More below๐Ÿ‘‡ (with charts)
The price & timing predictions are predicated on the following rhyming patterns in all cycles thus far:

1. The 1st upside impulse above the 1.618 golden ratio usually peaks near where the next bear market low will be, before a major pullback.
2. Price successfully retests and holds the 1.618 golden ratio.

3a. Price peaks between the 2.236 and 2.382 fib levels.

3b. The bear market low is approximately 85% (+/- 2%) down from the peak

**3a and 3b are marked as such because they confirm each other in each cycle.
Read 15 tweets
๐—–๐—ง๐—  #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ข๐—ป-๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ: ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ '๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ

Price Action Indicators (Fundamentals that affect BTC's price)

TLDR: ๐Ÿ“ˆ
1. Miner metrics- Bullish
2. Supply metrics- Bullish
3. Institution demand- Mod. Bullish
4. Network metrics- Bullish
๐Ÿญ. ๐— ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐˜€
a(i) The hash rate for #BTC miners continues to recover after the China mining ban. This has caused a global reshuffle of BTC mining hash rate such that the US has now emerged as the global leader in BTC mining as per the latest report from CCAF.
1a(ii) Technically, the #BTC hash rate forms an ascending channel. It challenged the key resistance level at 177E, which is also near the top of the channel, but got rejected. It's since recovered & is again on a run to challenge the resistance. Bullish!
Read 15 tweets
๐—–๐—ง๐—  #๐—•๐—ง๐—– ๐—ข๐—ป-๐—–๐—ต๐—ฎ๐—ถ๐—ป ๐— ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ถ๐—ฐ ๐——๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ต๐—ฏ๐—ผ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ: ๐—ช๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ธ ๐Ÿฐ๐Ÿฌ '๐Ÿฎ๐Ÿญ

๐—ฃ๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ธ ๐—œ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€ (๐Ÿญ๐Ÿญ this wk)

TLDR: BTC hasn't peaked or is in its bear phase.
The 30D MA metrics, RHODL, & NUPL indicate that BTC has exited #CTM Wave 1* low & onto Wave 2*.

*๐Ÿ‘‡
๐Ÿญ ๐—•๐˜‚๐—น๐—น ๐—ฃ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ฝ & ๐—•๐—ฒ๐—ฎ๐—ฟ ๐—ฃ๐—ต๐—ฎ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—•๐—ผ๐˜๐˜๐—ผ๐—บ

๐Ÿญ๐—ฎ. ๐—ง๐—ผ๐—ฝ ๐—–๐—ฎ๐—ฝ ๐— ๐—ผ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—น
This model is based on Willy Woo's Top Cap Model for tracking the peak & the bottom tracker is based on #BTC's moving average price.

BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.
๐Ÿญ๐—ฏ. ๐—™๐—ถ๐—ฏ ๐— ๐˜‚๐—น๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฝ๐—น๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ฟ๐˜€
This model is based on Fib retracement & extension numbers as multiples of the 350D SMA of #BTC's price.

BTC has neither peaked nor is it in a bear phase.
Read 15 tweets
Why is $GBTC still trading at a discount? Would it trade back at a premium? Will we see a blow-off top for $GBTC as #BTCโ€™s price goes parabolic?

TLDR: Long story. No, unless certain conditions prevail, but not this year. Yes, projected peak $GBTC price: $150-$240.
If you don't know much about $GBTC (Grayscale #Bitcoin Trust), you could read the following tweet about $GBTC as a quick refresher.

1/ Why is $GBTC trading at a discount?
$GBTC will be in discount when its price is trading lower than its #BTC holdings/share outstanding. Simply, investors are unwilling to buy $GBTC unless its value its lower relative to BTC.
Read 19 tweets
I tweet the following regularly:

1. #Bitcoin Top Cap Model Peak Price Tracker
2. #CTM BTC On-Chain Metric Dashboards
3. BTC 60-Day Volatility & Cycle Peak Timing
4. TA

The tweets in this thread link to my best analysis of #BTC. Hope you find them useful for your BTC journey.
๐Ÿ‘‡
2(i). Determining #Bitcoin Cycle Peak

a. Timing of BTC Peak Using 60-day Volatility Metric:


b. Using MVRV-Z Score to Exit BTC Cycle Peak
Read 14 tweets
#CTM has done a masterful job in building an accurate pricing model for #BTC. Kudos to @jclcapital, @irandall13 & @tboydsto.

Using TA, trend angles & parabolas, I also built one on a log BLX chart.

Projected Cycle Top
- Price: $340K
- Date: 12/20/21 (=Top Cap Model's)
1/ How is the #BTC model built?
a. Use log scale on price.
b. Draw parallel trend lines to connect the highs and lows of candles & use Tradingview's auto feature to clone the parallel trend lines.
c. Draw parabolas to fit all the lows of each cycle.
2/
d. The parabolas should intersect at the market top of a cycle. On the BLX chart, 12/4/2013 & 12/16/2017 are used as the dates for the market tops instead.
e. A trend line is drawn to connect the market tops of #BTC in 2013 & 2017 (blue).
Read 5 tweets
I've developed 4 #BTC indicators using @glassnode's workbench for detecting:

1. Buy & sell signals
2. Bear phase bottom
3. Top before final lift off + Timing of blow-off top
4. Best BTC accumulation periods

Also, I've rebuilt Willy Woo's Top Cap model for finding BTC's peak.
1a. Buy & Sell Signals

This indicator is developed from #BTC's moving average price. It gives accurate buy & sell signals of BTC.

It's simple to use: Whenever BTC's price is above the orange trend line, buy. Otherwise, sell.

It's now a good time to buy #Bitcoin!
1b. To simplify things further, I have made an oscillator for this Buy & Sell Signals indicator.

Note that when this oscillator > 2, #BTC is near an interim top or cycle top.

Oscillator >= 1 โžก๏ธ Buy
Oscillator < 1โžก๏ธ Sell
Oscillator >2 โžก๏ธ Near interim or cycle top
Read 12 tweets
Deducing #BTC's Peak Price from its Golden Crosses*

TLDR: There'd be a relationship between when the first golden cross occurs after a BTC bear phase & its peak price. The secret lies in "4".

If so, BTC's peak price may be $143K in this cycle (see Notes).

*50d EMA ๐Ÿ”€ 200d EMA
1/ Right before the 1st halving, a golden cross occurred & #BTC rallied 235x from the golden cross daily closing price to the 2nd cycle top.

Similarly, after the bear phase of the 2nd cycle, a golden cross occurred & BTC's price rallied 60x to the 3rd cycle top.

NB: 235/60= ~4 Image
2a/ Right after the bear phase of the 3rd cycle, a golden cross also occurred & #BTC's price rallied 12.5X from the golden cross daily closing price to its ATH of $64.9K.

A mid-cycle correction ensued where BTC corrected by 55% & BTC's price dipped below its 200 day EMA.
Read 7 tweets

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