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87/chin #ChinaEcon 🧵
89/chin #China #GDP #Investment collapse (they had reduced 2019 no's to get higher growth rate for 2020) 🧵
#ChinaEcon For #CCPchinaInc this is worse than Globbal Financial Crisis(GFC), bcs (1) Debt/GDP is already V high, (2) Cntrys with China trade deficits(USA, India) will resist subsidized dumping of exports, (3) It hits supply(labor) in addition to demand. Forcst 2020 GDP gr 1-3%
2/Ch #ChinaEcon This can only restore economy to previous levels, but wont help generate sustained GDP growth beyond the trend growth of real Household consumption in last 2 decades https://t.co/EvsbnsksSM
3/ch #ChinaEcon #CCPchinaInc's Real GDP growth will return to its long run sustainable average of 4.5% +/- 0.5% by 2021 (Official growth will of course be much higher then my predicted growth during both 2020 & 2021)
