Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ChinaMacro
Most recents (2)
1. A thread on three #PBOC 2021 Q2 Macro sentiment surveys from Bankers (Sample 3200), Industrial Companies (5000) and Urban Bank Customers (20,000). Surveys data are considered less informative and need to be heavily discounted, but could be complimentary to other data source.
2. Though data came from two diff. surveys, bankers and entrepreneurs have similar view:
Entrepreneur(Bankers) view on Macroeconomy 23.9%(25.5%) as “Cold”，72.6%(71.8%) “Normal”，3.5(2.7%)% “Hot”. Normal got 50 and HOT got 100. Indexes recovered to pre-Pandemic, Q3 lower than Q2
Entrepreneur(Bankers) view on Macroeconomy 23.9%(25.5%) as “Cold”，72.6%(71.8%) “Normal”，3.5(2.7%)% “Hot”. Normal got 50 and HOT got 100. Indexes recovered to pre-Pandemic, Q3 lower than Q2
3. Product Selling Price (Raw Material Purchasing) Sentiment, 24.4%(47.1%) expect “Increase”，67.6% (49.6%) "Same"，8.0%(3.2%) "Decrease”. Expect China PPI/CPI finally converge somewhat as companies raise prices on consumers. Some Q3 pull back from Q2.
#ChinaEcon For #CCPchinaInc this is worse than Globbal Financial Crisis(GFC), bcs (1) Debt/GDP is already V high, (2) Cntrys with China trade deficits(USA, India) will resist subsidized dumping of exports, (3) It hits supply(labor) in addition to demand. Forcst 2020 GDP gr 1-3%
2/Ch #ChinaEcon This can only restore economy to previous levels, but wont help generate sustained GDP growth beyond the trend growth of real Household consumption in last 2 decades https://t.co/EvsbnsksSM
3/ch #ChinaEcon #CCPchinaInc's Real GDP growth will return to its long run sustainable average of 4.5% +/- 0.5% by 2021 (Official growth will of course be much higher then my predicted growth during both 2020 & 2021)
