Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ClusterBusting
Most recents (4)
People are talking about *forward* and *backward* #ContactTracing #COVID19
What do they mean?
I made a case study for the @GOARN @WHO contact tracing group
A fictional contact tracer’s tale
My slides are here:
ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/Forwa…
Short thread (1/7)
What do they mean?
I made a case study for the @GOARN @WHO contact tracing group
A fictional contact tracer’s tale
My slides are here:
ispmbern.github.io/covid-19/Forwa…
Short thread (1/7)
Most #ContactTracing seeks contacts from 2 days before the infected person developed symptoms
#SARSCoV2 can be transmitted before symptoms emerge.
That is looking *forwards*
Who might the index case have infected?
Contacts in quarantine soon enough won’t infect others
2/7
#SARSCoV2 can be transmitted before symptoms emerge.
That is looking *forwards*
Who might the index case have infected?
Contacts in quarantine soon enough won’t infect others
2/7
Forward contact tracing can break onward transmission chains.
But it doesn’t find the source who infected the index case
To find the source, we need to go *backwards*
Index cases are more likely to have been infected by a source, who also infected others in a cluster
3/7
But it doesn’t find the source who infected the index case
To find the source, we need to go *backwards*
Index cases are more likely to have been infected by a source, who also infected others in a cluster
3/7
Endlich kam ich dazu, diesen Artikel komplett zu lesen. Absolut grandioser Text– wer Englisch kann und eine halbe Stunde Zeit hat: LESEN!
Wieso war die #Pandemie in manchen Regionen so verheerend, in anderen eher harmlos? Was ist backwards tracing, warum ist es so wichtig? 1/
Wieso war die #Pandemie in manchen Regionen so verheerend, in anderen eher harmlos? Was ist backwards tracing, warum ist es so wichtig? 1/
Und wieso ist die Frage, ob „#COVID19 exponentiell wächst“ oder nicht weder sehr aufschlussreich noch neu?
All diese Fragen hängen in ihrem Inneren mit einer verrückten Eigenschaft des neuen #Coronavirus #SARSCoV2 zusammen, der sog. Überdispersion- häufig Faktor „k“ genannt. 2/
All diese Fragen hängen in ihrem Inneren mit einer verrückten Eigenschaft des neuen #Coronavirus #SARSCoV2 zusammen, der sog. Überdispersion- häufig Faktor „k“ genannt. 2/
Viele kennen vermutlich den Faktor „R0“, der bei Infektionskrankheiten die zu erwartende Anzahl an Personen angibt, die ein Infizierter im Durchschnitt ansteckt. Bei der Grippe z.B. ist das tatsächlich halbwegs homogen, bei anderen Erregern, wie eben ganz extrem bei SARSCoV2, 3/
How did Japan, with much older demographics than the US, and higher density of people, have 7 deaths per million compared to >300 deaths per million for the US?
And only 133 cases/million vs 5385/million?
an update
And only 133 cases/million vs 5385/million?
an update
#ClusterBusting is a big factor. Anticipating the 80/20 Pareto principle.
Japan's "Patient Cluster Countermeasure Group" diligently traced all 61 cluster and superspreader events wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
see also @kakape's excellent thread
Japan's "Patient Cluster Countermeasure Group" diligently traced all 61 cluster and superspreader events wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26…
see also @kakape's excellent thread
Behavior and culture is another important factor, as assessed in this new paper. Better adherence to mitigation measures than the US.
journals.plos.org/plosone/articl… @PLOSOne
journals.plos.org/plosone/articl… @PLOSOne
147/x
148/x
Wearing a mask can help mitigate the super spreading phenomena:
Wearing a mask can help mitigate the super spreading phenomena:
149/x
We should also be on the lookout for asymptomatic cases, as they can significantly contribute in adding to infections, should they go unchecked; We need more testing in general, as well as of asymptomatics:
We should also be on the lookout for asymptomatic cases, as they can significantly contribute in adding to infections, should they go unchecked; We need more testing in general, as well as of asymptomatics:
