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From the inflation/stimulus trade-off standpoint, this is how I look at it:
We have a target area of 2%.
We had a series of supply shocks, a war, and heavy fiscal stimulus.
Average inflation was 8% last year and almost 4% the year before. And let’s say 2023 will also be 4%.
We have a target area of 2%.
We had a series of supply shocks, a war, and heavy fiscal stimulus.
Average inflation was 8% last year and almost 4% the year before. And let’s say 2023 will also be 4%.
So cumulative excess inflation would very roughly be 10% over three years.
Probably 1/2 to 2/3 of that was from the series of Covid shocks and the war.
So, you end up having an extra 3 1/2 to 5% inflation spread over three years in exchange for basically everybody having jobs.
Probably 1/2 to 2/3 of that was from the series of Covid shocks and the war.
So, you end up having an extra 3 1/2 to 5% inflation spread over three years in exchange for basically everybody having jobs.
Yes, we put out too much fiscal stimulus in hindsight. But in retrospect, if inflation continues to come down and we do get that soft landing, it seems like a very small price to have paid—especially when compared to other outcomes across the world.
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*looks around*
*whispers*
judge contreras' decision to give back @BrianKarem's hard pass was right on the law
#ConfessYourUnpopularOpinion
gibsondunn.com/wp-content/upl…
*whispers*
judge contreras' decision to give back @BrianKarem's hard pass was right on the law
#ConfessYourUnpopularOpinion
gibsondunn.com/wp-content/upl…
@BrianKarem There's only one case that matters, Sherill v. Knight
It's a DC Circuit case, so it is binding authority
It says reporters have a first amendment interest in press passes, which triggers fifth amendment due process protections if they are to be taken away
It's a DC Circuit case, so it is binding authority
It says reporters have a first amendment interest in press passes, which triggers fifth amendment due process protections if they are to be taken away
@BrianKarem In order to meet the standard required for Due Process, under Sherrill, the White House has to "specify in a meaningful way the basis on which" you can be denied a press pass
I.e. you can't have some vague standard like "security reasons," needs to be clear and provide notice
I.e. you can't have some vague standard like "security reasons," needs to be clear and provide notice
Based on my reading so far, DOJ was right to decline a prosecution on @Comey
He clearly violated his employment agreement and FBI policy, if he were still with the department he'd be fired and lose his clearance
But I don't think there's a crime
#ConfessYourUnpopularOpinion
He clearly violated his employment agreement and FBI policy, if he were still with the department he'd be fired and lose his clearance
But I don't think there's a crime
#ConfessYourUnpopularOpinion
@Comey My understanding of the law is that there's only a crime if Comey disclosed classified info with the requisite intent
Reading the IG report, it looks like he disclosed a total of six words of classified to his lawyers
Very likely accidental
Reading the IG report, it looks like he disclosed a total of six words of classified to his lawyers
Very likely accidental
@Comey The case for prosecuting @HillaryClinton was MUCH stronger
Hillary had a private server, hackable, with plenty of classified on it
Much better argument for gross negligence there, and she wasn't charged
(I realize @Comey made that decision but still)
Hillary had a private server, hackable, with plenty of classified on it
Much better argument for gross negligence there, and she wasn't charged
(I realize @Comey made that decision but still)
