Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Cons

Most recents (4)

So why I think the #GE2019 is really not done yet. A short thread. The summary: I think a hung parliament is still a very likely and a desirable outcome for the UK. I first present some evidence on the former, and then my view on the desirability on the latter. #Brexit
1. Most opinion polls now point to a #Cons maj, including yesterday's @YouGov MRP. MRP is great in the tool box, but still relies on raw polling data. Here, bit.ly/2q0iSFW, I argue here that YouGov samples for BES do appear structurally different and potentially biased
2. Opinion polls are still mostly conducted at national level, ignoring constituency-level factors. My PhD student @EleAla shows that in UK, turnout tends to be systematically lower the "safer" a seat is. And this effect is increasing in the poll national lead of the incumbent..
Read 18 tweets
Baroness Warsi (the first Muslim to
attend Tory Cabinet meetings).

THEY, CLEARLY, KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE TORY PARTY, how #racist, #xenophobic, and nasty this #Conservative Party really is, they were right at the top of it, #BaronessWarsi ... the #Cons Party's most sen fig
Some key things to understand. Andrew Lansley (1st quote) was in the #Cameron Cabinet.
Baroness Warsi was Tory Chairman for this, Theresa May Government. Her comment, (2), was made LAST SUNDAY, her other quote (3) was from 2016.
She was so disturbed about the disgraceful attitudes she could see all the time that she decided to blow the lid on her own, rabid, Party. Her incendiary comment , in 2016, about there being "a simmering UNDERBELLY of #Islamophobia" came from her own experiences dealing with
Read 17 tweets
Sunday closes the week, and the #GenghisCons are looking to make up a substantial difference. Using the old double starter trick and hoping S. Brault throws a career game.
Can we stay on top?!?? C’mon #Cons!!!!!
The #GenghisCons and Josh Donaldson have agreed on terms of release.
Welcome Todd Frazier & Colin Moran #GenghisConsBaseball
Read 8 tweets
1. A short story of #Brexit in four acts. Act 1) in 2010 Coalition comes to power and presses on with dramatic #austerity, wrecking the UK's social compact... causing massive economic harm...leading to 2015 General Election
2.... in which Cameron promised an #EUref, while secretly speculating on another hung parliament with #LibDems blocking such a referendum theguardian.com/world/2019/jan… Yet, Act 2) lots of #austerity disgruntled #LibDems & 2010 non-voters, along with some Cons voters switched to..
3. #UKIP in 2015 General Election. #LibDems got wiped out, #Cons gained 27 seats from LibDems (out 28 overall seat gain), while #Labour lost massively to #SNP -- allowing Cameron to go alone, being pushed by #Brexiteers in #Conservative party to go ahead with #EUref.
Read 9 tweets

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