@AlboMP

@AlboMP

@AlboMP

Karen Cutter

@KarenCutter4

The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 3 December is now out.
A thread/
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Reported cases are up 13% this week, a bit of a slowing in the rate of growth.
I've also estimated case numbers had mandatory reporting of RATS continued (dashed line). Approx 53,000 cases compared with 37,000 actual.

NSW Health has included a graph of furloughed health care workers, which provided a good correlation to case numbers prior to scrapping mandatory RAT reporting.
Hard to read off this graph, but it indicates maybe 55,000 cases had RAT reporting continued, so similar

Read 12 tweets

Karen Cutter

@KarenCutter4

The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 26 Nov is now out.
A thread, where I get cranky (again)/
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Cases up 19% in the week. As mandatory reporting of RATs was discontinued on 14 Oct, cases since then are not comparable to the earlier timeseries

@dbRaevn

Here are cases split between PCR and RATs. A rough estimate is that if RATs were still mandatory, we'd be pushing around 50,000 cases this week (rather than 33,000). (@dbRaevn usually does a more accurate estimate, utilising the info by age band.)

Read 12 tweets

Karen Cutter

@KarenCutter4

NSW Health have released their epi report for the week ending 12 November.
A thread/
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW

You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Cases are up 60% this week, back above 20,000 for the week.
While not shown here, RAT cases more than doubled (up from 3,600 to 8,000) while PCR cases increased from 10,500 to 14,600.

PCR test positivity is still going up, at 16% this week.

Read 9 tweets

Karen Cutter

@KarenCutter4

The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 5 November was released today.
I feel like I follow NSW reasonably closely, but there were a few surprises in here for me.
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Surprise #1: Cases were up 45% this week, with 14,000 cases reported.
While this is still much lower than earlier in the year, it is a lot more cases than the weekly update suggested (the last weekly update was to 3 Nov, had 12,500 cases reported, up 24% on the previous week).

Surprise #2: The number of PCR tests conducted was up a bit (10%), but positivity increased A LOT to 14%. Not good.

Read 9 tweets

Karen Cutter

@KarenCutter4

The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 15 October is now out.
#COVID19Aus #COVID19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Total cases were up slightly (+1%) this week.

By age band, however, cases were up 10% in the 60+ age band

Read 14 tweets

Karen Cutter

@KarenCutter4

The NSW epi report for the week ending 10 Sept is now out. Note that this is the week ending just before they switched from daily to weekly reporting, so nothing new on that front.
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Cases are down another 29% this week. Excellent.

While PCR testing is down again (-15%), so is positivity (at 7% this week). Good.

Read 13 tweets

Karen Cutter

@KarenCutter4

The NSW Health weekly epi report for the week ending 27 August came out today.
Short thread this week/
#covid19Aus #covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Only a few highlights this week as trajectories haven't changed, and I'm a bit fried after the excess deaths stuff this week:
- cases are down 21% and all age groups moving similarly; good
- PCR testing is down, but positivity rate is also down; good

- hospital admissions down 15%; excellent. The biggest % fall we've seen in a long time
- people in hospital down 6%; good. Hopefully this % will be even bigger next week as the lower admissions flow through
- 126 deaths; never good. But the lowest number in the seven weeks

Read 4 tweets

Karen Cutter

@KarenCutter4

The NSW Health epi report for the week ending 20 Aug came out today, and it looks pretty similar to last week.
A thread/
#Covid19Aus #Covid19NSW
You can find the full report here...
health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/cov…

Cases are down another 27% this week, and are now at a similar level to the trough before the BA.4/5 wave took off.

PCR testing is down, and so is the positivity rate. Good.

Read 14 tweets

Tim Longhurst 💥

@TimLonghurst

NSW Opposition Leader, Chris Minns is live now.
I'll live tweet below
fb.watch/aFRaLxjsw6/
#covid19nsw #nswpol #auspol

Minns: "Dominic Perrottet says this will be 'the last wave' but expert after expert has said there will be more variants..."
#covid19nsw #nswpol #auspol

Ryan Park: "This is a Premier that doesn't seem to be listening and doesn't seem to be learning."

#covid19nsw #nswpol #auspol

Read 6 tweets

Tim Longhurst 💥

@TimLonghurst

NSW, Australia & Covid. A🧵
To hold Perrottet/Morrison to account we must:
1) Compare where we are with where wise countries (NZ, Sing, Korea) are today.
2) Compare what #letitrip has done vs where we'd be with sensible public health measures.
1/7
#covid19nsw #nswpol #auspol

Perrottet's spin. He:
-Compares where we are against scenarios published recently by his govt. They're a distraction.
-Compares where we are today with the pain of lockdowns. The alternative to #letitrip was caution, not locking down. Don't buy it.
2/7
#covid19nsw #nswpol #auspol

It's gone from:
"Don't look at the cases - look at the hospitalisations!"
to
"Not hospitalisations, look at the ICU admissions!"
to
"Sure, ICU is high, but look at deaths!"
to
"Yes, deaths are high, but look at the health of some of the dead!"
3/7
#covid19nsw #nswpol #auspol

Read 7 tweets

Tim Longhurst 💥

@TimLonghurst

NSW Covid-19 Update this morning at 10am.
Perrottet's careless #letitrip approach in NSW has just recorded its deadliest day.
I think mismanagement like this needs witnesses, so I'll live tweet some of it. Join me if you like.
#covid19nsw #nswpol #auspol

https://twitter.com/TimLonghurst/status/1484287438680129539?s=20

Before we begin, some context:

https://twitter.com/TimLonghurst/status/1484287438680129539?s=20

Here's the link to the ABC YouTube live stream of today's update.
#covid19nsw #nswpol #auspol

Read 20 tweets

Tim Longhurst 💥

@TimLonghurst

NSW Media Conference with Perrottet, Hazzard & Dr Chant 10am today. I'll watch & live tweet below. It's way better with good company, so set an alarm for 9:55am, pop the kettle on & join me, if you like.
#covid19nsw #auspoI

Okay I'm standing by. ABC's YouTube link for the NSW Media Conference is here. I wonder if they'll delay because the PM is speaking?

https://twitter.com/TimLonghurst/status/1483564286085840896?s=20

Here's the context for today's media conference, which is just starting.
#covid19nsw #auspol

https://twitter.com/TimLonghurst/status/1483564286085840896?s=20

Read 14 tweets

Chris Billington

@Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.41 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

NSW R_eff as of January 9th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.41 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.85 ± 0.09
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 2.32 ± 0.16

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Read 6 tweets

Chris Billington

@Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.69 ± 0.07

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

NSW R_eff as of January 8th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.69 ± 0.07

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Read 6 tweets

Chris Billington

@Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of January 7th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.76 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

Cases shown on a linear scale (log scale in next tweet).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

NSW R_eff as of January 7th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 1.76 ± 0.08

Plus SIR model projection.

(Cases shown on a log scale)

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.80 ± 0.09
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 2.02 ± 0.13

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Read 6 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

How many people are in NSW hospitals *with* Covid but not *for* Covid?

The Daily Telegraph says it's 40-50% of patients

I have data from 2 major hospitals that tell a different story

🧵 1/9

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #COVID19

I asked clinicians from 4 big hospitals for an analysis of a random sample of currently admitted Covid patients

2 could help🙏

Both had very similar breakdowns:

~76-80% of Covid patients admitted *for* Covid illness
~20-24% admitted *with* Covid but for something else

2/9

Some more detail on the samples ...

Hospital A: n=21
Hospital B: n=101

Both samples were randomly selected and statistically significant given total Covid patients at each facility

3/9

Read 11 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

🚨 Those NSW hospitalisation numbers are >24 hrs behind and the situation is changing fast

ICU / ventilation increases this morning:

63 / 19 - NSW Health tweet 1
69 / 19 - NSW Health tweet 2
78 / 24 - Patient Flow Portal early AM
80 / 28 - PFP 10.20AM

#covid19aus #COVID19nsw

So from 8PM last night to mid-morning today ...

ICU patients have increased 16%
Ventilated patients have increased 47%

It is a huge jump

Both Omicron and Delta are circulating widely and feeding these numbers

*There are people with both variants in ICU*

We have little idea how much Covid there is in NSW, let alone the Delta v Omicron split

We do not know what hospitalisation / ICU / ventilation rates to expect

The best we can do is report on what is happening *right now*. Not what happened more than 24 hours ago

Read 6 tweets

Juliette O'Brien

@juliette_io

NSW has deflected responsibility for the massive pressures on the pathology system by focusing public attention on QLD's tourism testing

But in fact sheer case load is also a major factor affecting the testing system's capacity

Quick🧵1/6

#covid19aus #covid19nsw #CovidTesting

Prof Dwyer has confirmed NSW pathology labs use the 'pooling' process outlined by the Reddit thread

Pooling is supposed to help the system process large numbers of samples

Eg. Test 4 samples as a group

Negative? Move on

Positive? Go back and test each sample individually

2/6

Prof Dwyer said today:

'The process of having to go back and retest positive pools takes a lot of time'

and

'The ability to pool is limited by how common the disease is in the community'

So the pooling process is directly affected by more cases / higher positivity rate

3/6

Read 7 tweets

Chris Billington

@Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of December 18th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 3.35 ± 0.25

Cases shown on both a linear scale (first image) and log scale (second image).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 2.37 ± 0.27
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 8.55 ± 0.78

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 1.92 ± 0.22
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 5.57 ± 0.50

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Read 7 tweets

Chris Billington

@Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of December 17th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 3.52 ± 0.33

Cases shown on both a linear scale (first image) and log scale (second image).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.76 ± 0.17
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 7.22 ± 1.01

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 1.51 ± 0.15
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 4.16 ± 0.56

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

Read 7 tweets

Chris Billington

@Chrisbilbo

NSW R_eff as of December 16th with daily cases and restrictions. Latest estimate: R_eff = 3.24 ± 0.63

Cases shown on both a linear scale (first image) and log scale (second image).

More info chrisbillington.net/COVID_NSW.html

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in Greater Sydney vs rest of New South Wales:

Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.45 ± 0.13
NSW excluding Greater Sydney: R_eff = 1.81 ± 0.32

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note region-specific data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

R_eff in LGAs of concern* vs the rest of NSW (*all of Penrith included):

LGAs of concern: R_eff = 1.38 ± 0.14
Rest of NSW: R_eff = 1.65 ± 0.17

(Cases shown on a log scale)

(note LGA data is several days old, does not include today's cases)

#covid19nsw #covidsydney

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