Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #CovidVic

Most recents (24)

I'm trying very hard to understand the Burnet modeling for the VIC roadmap.

The projections seem almost absurdly pessimistic.

#CovidVictoria #CovidVic #roadmap

1/🧵
premier.vic.gov.au/sites/default/…
They project, if we follow the re-opening roadmap:
2202 deaths by January (says Dec in table, but clear in the plot it is end of Jan).

I integrated their daily infections, and calculate 330,000 infections from 21 Sept - 31 Jan.

2/🧵
Per capita, that is:

51,076 cases/million = 5.1%
341 deaths/million = 0.034%

An infection fatality ratio of 0.67% (underestimated, as deaths lag cases!)

Ridiculously high for a highly vaccinated population, and comparable to IFR for no vaccination.

3/🧵
Read 10 tweets
'case numbers will be higher, but the rate of hospitalisation will be much lower'

We're hearing this a lot. Is it happening yet? Are vaccines having a positive effect on hospitalisations?

The UK is a good example. This is what we want to see -

#covid19nsw #covid19aus #covidvic
Black dotted line = new cases
Blue solid line = hospitalisations

See how the blue curve stays low in the most recent wave, decoupling from cases in May?

'Decoupling' is the newest word in the data nerd lexicon, h/t @normanswan @teegstar 🤓
It's a similar picture in other countries which are on our radar as successful vaccination stories

Israel -
Read 9 tweets
A cowardly and disgusting opinion piece from @TheAge that reminds us again how the media has made COVID so much more difficult to handle.

A THREAD ⬇️⬇️⬇️
#auspol #springst #ThisIsNotJournalism #CovidVic

theage.com.au/national/victo…
The Age never praised the outcome. It's disingenuous and plain rude to write this paragraph now and admit that the lockdown last year paid off when The Age was critical of Daniel Andrews the entire time and made last year all that more difficult for all of us.
This was always the path to freedom. Not mentioning the botched vaccine rollout in this article proves @theage's bias. For The Age, the reason that we are still fighting COVID (botched vaccine rollout) doesn't matter because it gives them a chance to attack Dan Andrews.
Read 22 tweets
Comparisons between current outbreaks in NSW and VIC - by request

1. Outbreak sum
2. Daily cases
3. Unlinked cases
4. Wilds

Note - VIC's July / Aug outbreaks separated into Delta 1 (pink) and Delta 2 (purple)

1. Outbreak sum -

#covidvic #covid19vic #covid19aus
1/7
Note re starting points -
Above = index case
All charts below = 10 local cases in one day

2. Daily cases -

2/7
3. Unlinked cases ('mystery' cases allocated unknown source + cases under investigation) -

3/7
Read 10 tweets
🔵🐦 VIC Wild cases -

(This figure not very telling today. See Raf's tweet below - Day 13 results mean pre-isolation infectious period goes back > 2 weeks ago)

🐦 Wild: 13
🏠 Iso: 44

#covidvic #covid19vic #covid19aus

Daily Wilds -
Daily trend (7-days) -
14-day sum -
Read 4 tweets
I have written today to the COVID-19 Taskforce Commander, Lieutenant General JJ Frewen, to ask him for his support in immediately ensuring that disabled people in the 1a and 1b rollout have access to vaccines. #covidnsw #COVID19Aus #CovidVic #covidact #COVID19 #covidqld
2/ I will further be writing to Minister Greg Hunt today to request his support in urgently implementing targets for those cohorts and for vaccines to be prioritised, at all costs. To fail to do so will have catastrophic outcomes.

Let me remind you of the facts.
3/ We have fully vaccinated only half of those in the 1a rollout, those most likely to die of COVID. Scores of disabled people have died over the past few weeks, but we are given no information about their conditions. Only 63% of those same residents have received one dose.
Read 11 tweets
👩‍🏫 Covid Data Words Explainer - 'Under Investigation'

What are all these cases Under Investigation we hear about?

It's confusing bc NSW Health now announces 2 different categories of cases 'Under Investigation' that mean different things

1/6

#covidnsw #covidvic #covid19aus
1. Cases with an unknown source

They indicate undetected chains of transmission - outside the households and workplaces we know about

Contact Tracers are trying to solve these over the coming days and weeks

2/6

2. Cases 'under investigation' with respect to the question, were they in the community while infectious?

We data nerds call cases in community while infectious 'Wild'

So cases under investigation are Wild TBD (To Be Determined)

Read 9 tweets
#BREAKING: Acting Premier James Merlino is giving a #COVID19 update, but is first addressing the #vicfloods. "More than 4,500 requests for assistance over the last 24 hours until 9am, more than 1,700 have been cleared. Vic Emergency is showing 17 warnings for flood watch advice" Image
On the couple in Qld, if they were relocating then "it is not a breach of directions here in Victoria but we just don't know." #covidvic
#BREAKING: Merlino says "Masks will continue to be required to be worn OUTDOORS in all circumstances" which is a change from the new rules announced yesterday #COVID19Vic
Read 14 tweets
Today’s Andrews Presser. A curtain covers the stage, then sweeps back to reveal Daniel Andrews clutching a guitar. He has a shaved head & a black shirt which reads “ZERO”. Brett Sutton is on drums. Andrews growls, “Wanna go for a ride?” & they rock out.
#vicpol #auspol #covidvic
The journos push forward, forming mosh pit forms at the front of the stage. Chip Le Grand crowd surfs. Rachel Baxendale head bangs. The remaining journos, slam their bodies into each other, releasing weeks of tension through the raw power of the mosh. #vicpol #auspol #covidvic
Daniel Andrews snarls into the microphone:
"Emptiness is loneliness and loneliness is cleanliness
And cleanliness is godliness, and God is empty..."
And every journo in the room screams in unison:
"Just. Like. Me!"
The Mosh Pit goes insane.
#covidvic #vicpol #auspol #lockdown
Read 12 tweets
What's the initial source of the Box Hill outbreak? Was it a patient, or a staff member who was previously working on a COVID ward? Do we know?
(This is relevant as staff's masks were not fit tested when working on the COVID ward. Nor were they 'co-horted') #covidvic #springst
@healthcare_19 @NeelaJan @an_leavy any news about origin? cmo dismissed that fit testing would've made a difference as he said outbreak was on general ward. but that assumes infection didn't originate from HCW who had been working on covid ward prior.
If the origins are uncertain then how can the Chief medical Officer state that fit testing of masks is irrelevant to the box hill outbreak, as he did this morning on abc radio???
Read 4 tweets
Even @DanielAndrewsMP, not medically trained, sees the issue in a testing criteria of min. 30 min exposure in hospital outbreaks. The equivalent of dropping a Tim tam on the floor and saying “10 second rule lol” Why’d it take tweets/ journos asking to get this changed? #covidvic
DHHS is TOO RIGID with their approach. You don’t need to test every casual contact at a high exposure site. But you SHOULD test if
> there have been positive cases at that site who were casual contacts (Chadstone)
> indoor setting, small no. of ppl
> aged/healthcare
#covidvic
This is totally impractical with 700 cases a day. And yet a no-brainer with 6-15 cases a day.
Read 6 tweets
Dear journos, a q for presser:
1/ "Re the hospital outbreak, CHO said all workers at the facility are being tested. Is it true this only includes staff in direct contact with confirmed cases + those who've spent >30 min on the ward? Should criteria be loosened?" #covidvic #auspol
follow up? "Given that we do not have strain on testing (resources/turnaround times), and that this could be a highly infectious outbreak (staff infected despite masks), is there a harm in testing more widely if it means a few extra hundred tests?"
2/ Assuming a/the infectious patient is still at the hospital,, the staff who are looking after them, have they been through quantitative fit testing for the P2/N95 masks they are wearing?
#covid19vic
Read 6 tweets
This presser jesus - here we are at a make/break point re: this 2nd wave, yet STILL talking about who hired the private security guards. Stop trying to blame one person. Blame them all. Blame the entire apparatus. Blame me. And let's get on with what matters most #covidvic
This is EXACTLY how all the arguments in my family play out. SAME SHIT.

It doesn't matter who screwed up, let's just take the NEXT.CORRECT.STEP.
I think the best part of our ethnic family fights is when I yell "stop yelling".
Read 7 tweets
We finally have the history of the 14-day avg for metro and regional #CovidVic .

Now we can see the curve. Think it rose quickly? It appears to have fallen even faster. Really started to fall away three weeks ago. Frustrating shallowing now. Keep going Vic!

#COVID19Vic
Here it is for regional. The 14-day avg peaked at 31.3 cases / day one month ago.

(Data note - we had to wait for @VicGovDHHS to provide all this b/c the raw data aren't published. Big thanks to @migga @covidliveau for passing it onto me! <3 )
3/5. Here is the other key roadmap trigger - total number of cases with an unknown source in the last two weeks. (Note these figures are delayed by a few days). Metro goal = 5. Regional goal = 0.
Read 7 tweets
Victoria Image
#auspol covid lockdown Melbourne Victoria ImageImageImageImage
Department of defence
#COVID19Vic #CovidVic Melbourne Victoria 3aw covid #springst ImageImageImageImage
Read 3 tweets
600+ today is clearly worrying, but this table illustrates what should be priority number 1.
If we want to protect our elderly, and anyone requiring care in hospitals, we must prevent infections of health/aged care workers, and transmissions between them. #covidvic #auspol Image
Clarification on that figure. I think it was miscommunicated in the press conference: Image
Read 3 tweets
In my work I do two things regularly: Understand how things change and how people can perform tasks. Here are some thoughts on the failure of people to isolate correctly #COVID19Aus. 1/
When you study behaviour of people, particularly groups, you'll be constantly surprised & occasionally frustrated. Partly because this make you especially attuned to systems, communications, processes and context. Good designers insulate from this with optimism & humility 2/
Optimism to believe that change is possible. To recognise when a path or message fails and try something new. To not take this personally and fall into a pattern of blame. To dive in an embrace the complexity and learn from it. 3/
Read 27 tweets
Which was the stronger play this #covidvic presser?
@DanielAndrewsMP throwing shade at Brighton Karen twice?
Or @VictorianCHO rocking up in a jumper knocking @GregHuntMP's mask attempt? Who got owned harder?
#auspol
Interesting, Karen was in the lead initially, but voter sentiment is shifting.
Can I just remind everyone that while Karen did get owned twice, it was indirect.
Whereas @VictorianCHO called out @GregHuntMP by name, in a jumper that he had *clearly* slept in.
This surely deserves credit.
Please bear this in mind while you vote in the above poll.
Read 3 tweets
If the rumors of 400+ #covidvic cases today are true, we might need #stage4 purely because #ContactTracing has collapsed. Good luck trying to chase contacts of these 400. Currently there's a several day delay to even START the process. Must expand tracing nationally #auspol
We shouldn't have a state by state approach, but a nationally consolidated one that can fluidly shift focus where needed. Also, training a surge workforce - there is clearly a shortage. Also, I hear it's very paper based. Not everything needs tech but this might be worth a look.
I know other states have been helping. But NSW tracers returned as they're dealing with their own situation. How can I be sure that they're taking back precisely what's needed? This requires coordination on a national level.
Read 4 tweets
A group of community advocates went to #33alfred, where they were quickly surrounded by police - they estimate about 50. They were arguing about the fence, saying they had been told it was not to be built. You can see video of these interactions on the @therapybytigist Twitter
Community legal representatives were called in an escalating situation with police. Residents inside the towers, witnessing all this, were increasingly distressed and agitated.
After some time, the advocates were told the fence would be demolished - that a contractor would be called and would be there within the hour. Representatives stayed on site until that had happened. The fence went down about 1am.
Read 4 tweets
Umm... why are medical students expected to attend rotations on Monday in hospitals as Victoria faces its largest ever wave of community transmission, which has already lead to quarantine of estimated 500+ health workers? #covidvic #covid19 #auspol #melbournelockdown
It’s about student’s health, and also limiting transmission from hospitals back to community, something I had hoped we had learned from Italy, UK etc but nah let’s wing it hey it is what it is
This thought was originally shared with me by..... a medical student
Read 6 tweets
When Vic gets things under control- & we will- we must hear why #masks for hospital staff/patients/visitors were advised/implemented so late.

HUNDREDS of staff are in quarantine, not reported publicly.

It’s keeping patients safe. But was avoidable #COVID19Au #covidvic #auspol ImageImage
This email was sent on Thursday. Word was that the directive came on Monday. Why did it take so long to filter down? And why wasn’t this happening the week prior when we already had infected staff at 4 hospitals?
Also, How helpful is it that when DHHS is getting SLAMMED with cases that we had yet more unhelpful/non existant advice on masks from AHPPC ? Help a brother out!!!
Read 3 tweets
Much better messaging on cloth masks from @VictorianCHO. Thanks. more info: dhhs.vic.gov.au/cloth-masks-co…
#covidvic #covid19aus #auspol
BTW I am not comfortable with DHHS advice that children and those under 18 are not recommended to wear masks, but it's at their discretion.

Thanks to @ktibus for pointing this out.
What is the evidence for this???? (obv strangulation risk etc is legit for the very younglings, but older children?)
Read 3 tweets
A question I'll be reflecting on - should Al Taqwa college, Victoria's largest ever cluster (113 cases), have been closed earlier, on June 30 when 3 staff tested positive?
Is this not what we learned from Cedar Meats?
Check out this timeline. #covidvic #COVID19Aus #auspol Image
What were the assumptions that delayed the closing of the school? "Kids rarely infect others"? What is wrong with this assumption? Merely that the infected students were older?
Or were younger students also involved in transmission?
Would physical distancing or masks have helped?
sorry cos i'm getting the same reply from everyone, i should've written 'should everyone have been told to quarantine on june 30th', not 'closed'
Read 3 tweets

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