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NZ #ExtremeWeather Update Thread.
What was Tropical #CycloneDovi has fallen apart and is now more like a front. Overnight a lot of rain has fallen over central NZ Sth and Nth islands.
But the rain event will soon come to an end.
IMAGE: IR satellite image of remains of #Dovi.
What was Tropical #CycloneDovi has fallen apart and is now more like a front. Overnight a lot of rain has fallen over central NZ Sth and Nth islands.
But the rain event will soon come to an end.
IMAGE: IR satellite image of remains of #Dovi.
Heavy rain over northern parts of NZ now looks unlikely. This animation shows model predictions (ECMWF model) of rain fall from 6pm last night NZ time through to Monday 6pm.
In this 24 hour @Metservice rain radar animation - from 4pm Saturday through to 4am this morning, a lot of this rain has already fallen. The forecast indicates it will continue to move northwards, but it appears to be weakening.
A cyclone thread 🧵
Satellite photo from earlier today shows double trouble.
TC Dovi & its discernable eye at the top.
Well ahead of #CycloneDovi is a plume of tropical moisture.
Collectively, this will result in high chances for:
🌧️ heavy rain
🌬️ strong wind
🌊 large waves
Satellite photo from earlier today shows double trouble.
TC Dovi & its discernable eye at the top.
Well ahead of #CycloneDovi is a plume of tropical moisture.
Collectively, this will result in high chances for:
🌧️ heavy rain
🌬️ strong wind
🌊 large waves
As for rain…
These maps show the daily odds of receiving heavy rain.
Red (🔴) is where our modelling predicts a high chance of more than 50 mm of rain.
Some locations will see more than a month's worth of rain in just a few days. This obviously raises flooding concerns.
These maps show the daily odds of receiving heavy rain.
Red (🔴) is where our modelling predicts a high chance of more than 50 mm of rain.
Some locations will see more than a month's worth of rain in just a few days. This obviously raises flooding concerns.
Here's a different way of looking at the rainfall forecast.
The pink & purple is where the heaviest rain is predicted; mainly western & lower parts of the North Island.
Impacts include:
-Slips
-Flooding
-Washed out roads
Need to watch eastern top of the South Island, too.
The pink & purple is where the heaviest rain is predicted; mainly western & lower parts of the North Island.
Impacts include:
-Slips
-Flooding
-Washed out roads
Need to watch eastern top of the South Island, too.
Tropical Cyclone #Dovi #CycloneDovi has an amazing satellite presentation this morning. This is consistent with the latest JTWC forecasts indicating the cyclone strengthening rapidly over the next 24 hours.
12 hour satellite animation of Tropical Cyclone Dovi up to 9.20 am this morning.
Quoted thread contains latest updated information on the cyclones track, intensity and impact.
Quoted thread contains latest updated information on the cyclones track, intensity and impact.
A closeup of the last six hours....
#NZ #ExtremeWeather Update thread:
The latest JTWC update has Cyclone Dovi strengthening to 96 knots of sustained winds, putting it on the threshold of Category 3 Hurricane Strength.
The latest JTWC update has Cyclone Dovi strengthening to 96 knots of sustained winds, putting it on the threshold of Category 3 Hurricane Strength.
While #CycloneDOVI is very unlikely to maintain anything close to this all the way to NZ, this is not good news for the Nth Island in rain/flooding terms.
[Image: 24 hour satellite animation of #Dovi featuring New Caledonian radar data showing an intense well formed eyewall.]
[Image: 24 hour satellite animation of #Dovi featuring New Caledonian radar data showing an intense well formed eyewall.]
Outflow of moisture - an atmospheric river - generated by #CycloneDovi is already delivering intense rains in NZ in a band which is steadily moving northwards.
A strengthening #Dovi will increase the amount of moisture in this river.
A strengthening #Dovi will increase the amount of moisture in this river.
