Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #DEFLATIONARY

Most recents (15)

Good morning! #Equities continue to defy gravity. This has more to do with the insane monetary environment CBs have created. Macro economic reality says something completely different. The division (=the bubble) will come to haunt us all. Please stay tuned for #HZupdates
Why is it, that some analysts try to explain away the obvious? We have a major bubble in ...well almost all assets. #Schiller PE for #SP500 tells us, that the bubble is at 1929-level. Could it grow bigger? Sure!! But that does not make it a non-bubble #HZupdates
Amount of neg. yielding debt has skyrocketed. Remember, this is discount factor. If discount factor is closing in on 0 (or goes neg.) then value of any asset is going to infinity. But that has NOTHING to do with true value of any asset. This is "Bubble food"! #HZupdates
Read 23 tweets
Hey all! Attention if you are up for an update on my perspective on markets. Deflation and massive moves ahead! Stay tuned #HZupdates
Let's start with #CRB, which created a nice shooting star on weekly chart, and leaving gap open below. Wave "e" often overshoots trend-line only to turn hard the opposite direction. The likely coming decline in #CRB is deflationary #HZupdates
This week we had an #Oil crisis according to some analysts. It played out on Monday😄Like #CRB, #Oil is consolidating in a sideway-consolidation (wave B) before a strong move lower. Target in Ending Diagonal remains <20USD. This will be secular bottom. First #deflation #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Good morning! 😀End of August --> Time to look at some Monthly charts. What does the latest Monthly candles suggest for the road ahead for global economy? Stay tuned for #HZupdates
Yesterday, I posted this chart for #EURUSD. This is very central, as it provides indication for direction of USD. Major topping pattern - backtest in early 2018 - now targeting <0.9. Notice August candle! Zoom-in chart 2. It seems to be very Bearish #HZupdates
Turning towards Monthly chart for #DXY, we got corresponding candle to what we observed in #EURUSD. Bullish which set #DXY on the path towards min. 111, pot. as high as 120. Trend line suggest we could get there by Q1/Q2 2020. USD strength will create global challenges #HZupdates
Read 10 tweets
Good morning! 😁Deflationary phase is developing in economy. Stay tuned for my perspectives on coming developments in markets based on charts - technical and fundamental analysis #HZupdates thread coming up!
SP500 recovered some of the loses from early trading this week. Still, I think we have seen the top of the Expanding Diagonal, and we are currently in the Deflationary part of the crisis, where growth in economy is rolling over. Target ~2050 by Q1/Q2 2020 #HZupdates
#SP500 - will we see rally to 2950 for pot. top of wave 2 (black) before reversal and strong decline? That would close the gap in market from early Aug. #HZupdates
Read 16 tweets
Hope you enjoy the weekend! 😀Deflation unfolding in economy. Stay tuned for my view on market and coming macro developments #HZupdates
Short term we may see a bounce in #AUDUSD, as wave 2 develops - which sets us up for strong wave 3 down #HZupdates
#OIL develops in Ending Diagonal, which sets a target <20USD before LT-bottom. Again - we could pot. see that LT-bottom in around early Spring 2020. The period from now - until then is the #DEFLATIONARY phase of the crisis. This is where liquidity (USD) is scarce #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets
My updated view on #SP500. Is Fed about to disappoint sending #equities much lover towards ~2000 for SP500? Then stepping back in FOR REAL ~Q2 2020 to avoid #DEFLATIONARY Melt-down - which will create bounce in market and later new major decline during #STAGFLATION #HZupdates
One more push lower on #VIX before major bottom - and strong reversal? #HZupdates
#Oil #WTI could be about to embark on final decline towards ~20 USD #HZupdates
Read 5 tweets
So - #Gold is rallying towards AT - right? Bulls have won! Somebody should send the memo to #Silver. While #Silver normally leads or peaks with Gold - Gold has been on its own spree. Man - I would love to join the Gold Euphoria 😉 Bear Flag - perhaps? #HZupdates
Somebody should also send that memo to #GDX. Notice how GDX bottoms and supports Gold in Bull market. New high in Gold = New High in GDX. Not what we see now! #HZupdates
But....#USD is breaking down as Fed will cut rates.... No - it is not! #DXY is CORRECTING in a clear stairs-like structure. We can see 95 or 94 - perhaps lower. But this is no breakdown #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Good morning FinTwit 🙂 Trust you are well! Stay tuned for some #HZupdates
I hear #Gold has broken up and out - and we are now on the way to new highs.... Gold Bulls are VERY confident - and we see very creative charts to prove the break out. Well - this is how I see it #HZupdates
#Gold has been in a long correction phase starting 2011. Corrections develop in ABC-patterns. Wave B often is a triangle - which get's all the Gold Bulls excited about new highs - just before the major last plunge #HZupdates
Read 14 tweets
Good morning all! 😎 Trust you are well. #Oil declined hard last week. The deflationary environment is unfolding, as it has been laid out in #HZupdates. Please stay tuned for more!
Anybody who has been following my #deflationary scenario remembers my #Oil chart. The bounce, we saw from end 2018 until April 2019 was a wave "B" bounce in this wave 5 of the great Ending Diagonal. We will see Oil plummet to min. 22USD pot. all the wavy to ~10USD #HZupdates
This has not come as a surprise! #AUDUSD (Inflation gauge) had for a long time been flirting with LT-trendline from 2008. This was a sign of weakness in inflation - which could only play out, if Oil dropped (like the Ending diagonal suggested) #HZupdates
Read 17 tweets
Some analysts seem to think, that #USDJPY must decline when/if #SP500 is to decline or crash. That is not the case! Observe yellow markings #HZupdates
#USDJPY and #Gold have strong inverse relationship. Both have formed triangles since 2015. Now - main direction will continue. USDJPY towards ~154 - and Gold towards ~800 USD #HZupdates
#Gold did bottom in 2015 - but only for a bounce! A "ZigZag-pattern" is defined by A-B-C waves. A from 2011-15 = 5 waves. B from 2015-19 = Triangle (abcde). Now 5 waves down in wave C. Decline may be very strong! #HZupdates
Read 10 tweets
Hi #fintwit 😎 We are approaching a watershed moment in markets. Final deflationary phase of Kondratiev's winter is about to play out. Huge implications for #EUR, #Gold, #SP500, #DXY etc. I have some new interesting followers - hence something extra in this week's #HZupdates
#Kondratiev's winter is a period where #Velocity of Money drops which creates a disinflationary economic environment, where growth is subdued due to #debt levels. Since ~2000 we have been in this winter - and are still to see a range of "major economic events" unfold #HZupdates
In fact, we have never left the #Financial #Crisis. We have only been bouncing in the great "Financial and Sovereign Debt Crisis" of this #Kondratiev's winter. This can be observed from the #Deflation Gauges #Copper, #XAU, AUD, EUR. We are about to see wave C develop #HZupdates
Read 21 tweets
As you all know #deflation has been my theme for some time. It is obvious looking at charts like #Copper and #Oil. Here is #Oil. Ending Diagonal which will send Oil <23 USD during 2019/2020. This has been my call since top in 2018. It is >70% drop --> deflationary #HZupdates
#Copper shows same picture. #Deflation is coming. We are in wave 5 of C in expanding diagonal. Current bounce is wave 2 - will rally slightly higher - before major drop. I imagine this is what Powell starts getting indications on #HZupdates
Notice 2008 Q1-Q3 - during last deflationary phase. Fed had been tightening up to Sept. 2007 - and started lowering rates. BUT damage had been done to economy. World rolled over and #deflation /disinflation. It was from Q1-Q3 2008. #Copper plunged. Same situation now! #HZupdates
Read 22 tweets
#Equities #SP500 was rallying and the bulls are cheering. The excuse seems to be, that Powell has blinked. Remember 2007-09? Fed started lowering rates by September 07. Yet that did not prevent Financial markets to decline hard until March 2009 #HZupdates
The thing is, that when liquidity #crunch snowball gets rolling, some announcement from #Fed will not do the job. Down the line, Fed will need to scramble (QE or the like) to fight USD shortage. My LT #SP500 model remains like this. Major Bear market ABC-structure. #HZupdates
I will not reveal my EW-count for #SP500 here. That is reserved for subscribers and buyers of Weekly Update. Only say, that we have not seen an impulse wave since Sept high. I expect a MAJOR decline to set in rather soon, taking us to my bottom of wave A from LT-chart. #HZupdates
Read 17 tweets
Good morning to all 😀Interesting weeks/months ahead of us as my deflationary scenario plays out. Will have massive consequences for currencies, gold, equities etc. I keep my subscribers updated closely on Daily/Weekly updates. But for now - stay tuned for some #HZupdates 👍
"#Deflation" or "#Disinflation" have been my call for a long time. We are not out of Kondratiev's winter yet. We haven't seen the all events which unfold during K's winter. Still to come Pension Funds Crisis, Currency Crisis, Run from Paper Money ...and War #HZupdates
And "#Deflation" outlook is clear in the charts imo. I look primarily to #AUDUSD and #Copper for guidance. Observe this chart of #Copper. Major ABC pattern. Length of C can be set by the irregular pattern indicating low in Copper below 2008-levels = deflation in 2019 #HZupdates
Read 19 tweets
Hi all 😀Great week in the market. Coming weeks will be very interesting - but likely decieving imo. Rally/drops in one direction only to shift direction again. Ready for some #HZupdates on #SP500, #EURUSD, #Gold, #Bonds etc.? Stay tuned!
Today I want to take on both #USD Bulls and Bears 😀 I hear a lot of either "USD hegemony is over" or "USD is going to soar for years to come". I think the truth is somewhat in between - but with a slight advantage to the Bull's side #HZupdates
Looking at the very long perspective, DXY has been in a decline. But - it has formed an ending diagonal, and the drop below trendline in 2008 was very likely THE bottom. Since it has been in wave 1 of the new Bull Market - which has formed a leading diagonal #HZupdates
Read 18 tweets

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