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Thread: Exponential to Linear & Reopening
On Apr 17, Mr. Trump predicted a MAXIMUM #COVID death toll of 60–65k in 🇺🇸.
I predicted the toll would exceed 65k by today.
That was correct (up to a 24hr reporting delay). Current tally, May 1, is 65,435.
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On Apr 17, Mr. Trump predicted a MAXIMUM #COVID death toll of 60–65k in 🇺🇸.
I predicted the toll would exceed 65k by today.
That was correct (up to a 24hr reporting delay). Current tally, May 1, is 65,435.
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This was my third correct prediction in a row.
My first prediction was on Apr 4 for Apr 12 (~20k deaths).
My second prediction was on Apr 12 for Apr 19 (~40k deaths).
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My first prediction was on Apr 4 for Apr 12 (~20k deaths).
My second prediction was on Apr 12 for Apr 19 (~40k deaths).
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In this pedagogical thread, I will discuss the Exponential trends in cases & deaths, transition to Linear, and the implications for reopening.
To review basic definitions for a Dynamical System, State & Auxiliary Variables, Flows, & Parameters see:
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To review basic definitions for a Dynamical System, State & Auxiliary Variables, Flows, & Parameters see:
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