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#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
As total cases continue to rise, ACTIVE cases are bunching...still a wait and watch situation before we can establish whether we have peaked. 🤞 ImageImage
How are TOTAL and ACTIVE cases changing?
1) Total cases doubling in 16/15 days based on @WHO /@JHUSystems data sources.
2) Active cases doubling in ~30 days (with large confidence interval) ImageImage
The CDGR = 10.53% Image
Read 12 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
As total cases rise, India's ACTIVE cases have declined for the first time compared to previous day. Have we begun to bend the curve? Need a few more days to establish this.🤞
How are TOTAL and ACTIVE cases growing?
1) Total cases are doubling in 16 days.
2) Active cases are doubling in 30 days (with large confidence interval).
The CDGR = 10.58%
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
As total cases rise, the growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 3.8% - doubling in 18 days.
How are TOTAL and ACTIVE cases growing?
1) Total cases doubling in 16 days.
2)Active cases doubling in 18 days.
The CDGR = 10.62%
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
While total cases climb, the growth rate of ACTIVE cases is = 3.9% - so doubling every 18 days. #DownButNotOut
How are total cases and active cases growing?
For many who are confused about doubling days - check the graph on right.
7 Day moving average:
1) Daily cases
2) Daily deaths
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total cases cross 150K, the growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 4.3% - so doubling every 16 days. Finally a slowdown in infection after a week of rising growth. 🤞
How are TOTAL and ACTIVE cases changing?
Look at the right panel - to observe the decline in growth rate of active cases, after 7 days of rising speed.
7 Day moving average:
1) Daily cases
2) Daily deaths
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total confirmed cases continue to rise, the growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 4.9% - so doubling in 14 days.
How are total cases and active cases growing?
- At similar rates.
The CDGR = 10.79%
Read 13 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total cases continue to rise. Growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 4.9% - so doubling in 14 days.
1) Total cases growing at 5.3% - doubling in 13 days.
2) Active cases growing at 4.9% - doubling in 14 days.

The TOTAL cases and ACTIVE cases are now growing at similar rates. This means that RECOVERY == NEW cases.
The CDGR = 10.84%
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #Covid19India
Total cases continue to rise; growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 4.6% - so doubling in 15 days.
1) Total cases growing at 5.3% - doubling in 13 days.
2) Active cases growing at 4.6% - doubling in 15 days.
7 Day Moving averages:
1) Daily cases
2) daily deaths
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total confirmed cases rise, as growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 4.4% - so doubling in 16 days.
How are Total cases and Active cases changing?
1) Total cases doubling in 13 days.
2) Active cases doubling in 16 days.
The CDGR = 10.94%
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
(1) Total confirmed cases continue to rise. ACTIVE cases growing at 4.2% - so doubling in 17 days. Active cases have to stop rising for us to #FlattenTheCurve.
(2) How are TOTAL cases and ACTIVE cases growing?
(a) Total cases doubling in 13 days.
(b) Active cases doubling in 17 days. It was down to 23 days on 16th May.
(3) 7 Day moving averages:
(a) Daily cases
(b) Daily deaths
Read 13 tweets
#DailyUpdate #Covid19India
Total cases increase, as ACTIVE cases grow at 4.2% - so doubling in 17 days. We are witnessing a significant reversal in trend.
1) Total cases are doubling in 13 days.
2) Active cases are doubling in 17 days.
7Day moving average:
1) Daily new cases
2) Daily deaths
Read 13 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
As total cases mount, the growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 3.6% - so doubling in 19 days. We are struggling to #FlattenTheCurve - need better isolation, tracing and testing strategies at local district levels across the country.
This is where the trouble lies: we are clocking ~5000 new cases over last several days. 5 Day moving average of new cases:
1)MH accounts for ~2000
2)TN (~700)
3)DL (~500)
4)RJ, GJ, UP (~300)
5) Several states reporting their highest number of new cases now: DL, RJ, UP, KA, AS
How are ACTIVE cases growing across states?
1) Rising speed: KA, MH, RJ, MP, JK, WB, GJ, UP, TS (these states need better isolation+tracing+testing)
2) Slowing down: KL, OD, TN, PB...
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #Covid19India
Total cases have now exceeded 1Lakh. The growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 3% - so doubling in 23 days. Important to appreciate that this rate has not changed in last 3 days...we are struggling to #FlattenTheCurve
And this is where the problem lies: 5Day moving average of new confirmed cases is still rising. MH is clocking 2000 new cases >> GJ & TN (500) > DL (400) > RJ & MP (200)...
The growth rate of ACTIVE cases across states remains positive (other than PB, HR, UP, AP) and is in fact speeding further in MH (!), GJ (!), KA, RJ, MP, TS and JK.
Read 15 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total cases in India is 95,698. The growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 3% - so doubling in 23 days.
Total cases are doubling in 14 days. Total cases, total deaths and growth rates - according to different data sources. @WHO @ECDC_EU @JHUSystems
The CGDR = 11.2%
Read 17 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total cases are 90,648 and the rate of growth of ACTIVE cases = 3.1% - so doubling in 23 days. This implies that the recoveries are growing fast. Press on India!
Total COVID cases, total COVID-related deaths and the growth rate of total cases - according to different data sources. All show growth rate of 4.9% - so doubling in 14 days. @WHO @ECDC_EU @JHUSystems
The CGDR of total cases = 11.26%
Read 16 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total cases are 85,784 and ACTIVE cases are now growing at 3.6% - so doubling every 19 days.
Total cases, total deaths and growth rate of total cases - according to different data sources:
1) Total cases doubling 15 days (@JHUSystems )
2) Total cases doubling in 14 days (@WHO @ECDC_EU )
7Day Moving average of:
1) Daily cases
2) Daily deaths
Read 15 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total confirmed cases in India are 81,997. The growth rate of ACTIVE cases = 3.8% - so doubling in 18 days.
Total cases, total deaths and growth rates - according to different data sources. @JHUSystems @WHO @ECDC_Outbreaks
7Day Moving average:
1) Daily new cases
2) Daily COVID deaths
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total cases are 78,055 and growing. ACTIVE cases are growing at 4.2% - so doubling in 17 days. This is the slowest growth in active cases India has achieved (but base is large too). Press on!
Total COVID cases and growth of total cases in India - according to different data sources. @WHO @JHUSystems @ECDC_Outbreaks
7Day Moving average of:
1) Daily cases
2) Daily deaths
Read 15 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
The total confirmed cases are growing. ACTIVE cases are growing at 4.5% - so doubling every 16 days (slowest ever). Press on India!
Total confirmed cases and total deaths - according to different data sources. The total cases are doubling every 12 days. @JHUSystems @WHO @ECDC_Outbreaks
The CGDR = 11.5%
Read 15 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total COVID cases are 70,768.
Growth rate of ACTIVE cases is 4.9% - so doubling every 14 days.
Total cases, total deaths and growth rates - according to different data sources. @WHO @ECDC_Outbreaks @JHUSystems
7Day Moving average:
1) Daily COVID cases
2) Daily COVID deaths (declines for the first time!) 🤞
Read 15 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Total confirmed cases still rising, the rate of growth of Active cases is now 5% - so doubling every 14 days.
The CGDR = 11.63%
1) 7Day Moving average of Daily New Cases
2) 7Day Moving average of Daily deaths
Look at the couple of unusually bad days we had last week.
Read 13 tweets
#DailyUpdate #Covid19India
Confirmed cases continue to grow, Active cases now growing at 5.2% - so doubling every 13 days. This is now steadily falling after 5 bad days of reversal (2 weeks after #Lockdown1 lifted). Ebb and flow will continue but trend in right direction.
The CGDR of cases = 11.68%
7Day moving averages of Daily cases and Daily COVID deaths in India.
Read 14 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Confirmed cases growing, Active cases growing at 5.5% - so doubling every 13 days.
The CGDR of confirmed cases = 11.75%
The total confirmed cases growing at:
1) 6.3% (doubling in 11 days) according to @JohnsHopkins
2) 6.9% (doubling in 10 days) according to @WHO @ECDC_Outbreaks
Read 13 tweets
#DailyUpdate #COVID19India
Confirmed cases rising, Active cases growing at 6.1% (mild improvement) - doubling in 11 days.
Total confirmed cases growing at 7% - doubling every 10 days - according to different data sources.
The compound daily growth rate of confirmed cases = 11.81%
Read 12 tweets

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